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Showing content with the highest reputation since 13/04/21 in all areas

  1. Iv been taking myself away from it all a bit and doing jobs that need doing and just enjoying seeing my family etc.Im very worried about where we are heading for my families future.Mostly what is happening is exactly what we road mapped a good few years ago,so everyone on this thread should be in clover so far.What worries me though Bob is that things move quicker than i can macro and cross market.This thread is incredible,and im so thankful that every single person who adds and spends time here has kept the thread an open place for everyone.Every single person who joins in,reads etc have cont
    66 points
  2. Great interview by David Hunter, posted earlier in the week by @The Idiocrat. Lots of information, including timings and targets. I have posted below my summary table, and I'll add a rough transcript for those who prefer use text for reference. I have been thinking a bit more about strategy for the months ahead, and I'll put up my conclusions later, for people to criticise.
    47 points
  3. Thanks DB that was a poignant post which I can relate to. Having grown up in a very downtrodden area, the schools were shit and chaos reigned (luckily my brothers reputation allowed me to blag my way through the rough stuff) but the quality of teaching was far worse. At high school I made the decision to teach myself from Letts books as I was always either sent out or on report and learnt little in class anyway. I walked away from school with several A* grades and all the rest A-Cs. One of my highest grades was in history which I hadn’t attended in months as the teacher didn’t want m
    41 points
  4. David Hunter rough transcript: DH: Last March S&P was 2200 and I called for new highs: now 4200+. Length of time taking gold to re-emerge from consolidation has been longer than expected, but markets don't always do what we want. Expect a spectacular melt-up into Q2. This is due to liquidity injection, and fiscal stimulus. Investors have remained relatively restrained, with a wall of worry. Now see more signs that people are believers, but still some healthy scepticism, with people calling for bigger corrections than we have had. Market has been self-correcting on the way up. At
    34 points
  5. I think thats a huge part of what is going on.Removing access to un-earned income from capital for ordinary people.The very very first thing i was taught in this game was that the rich need to stop the poor taking back the land.To do that they tax the middle and give to the poor.Then they own the assets that all those people use,so all the money goes to the top.Thats it.Amazing system,for them. Like you say oil.Industries that have reached the end of their growth,or are in slow decline are cash cows.They are actually the best companies to own for income,and indeed protection of capital.No
    29 points
  6. EIA projections, like all of them, are always wrong, and just revised retrospectively. I trend to look at the trend of revisions for guidance, and the trend I've seen in 2021 so far is that they've switched from revising demand down to up. I've recently being trying to do some DD on shale, as much as I can from 5000 miles away. What I can tell you is: - All major basins apart from the Permian are dropping steadily, and will continue to drop into the year end at current rig numbers. - They are are piling most new rigs into the Permian. This is the biggest and least mature basin, the b
    28 points
  7. The BP results were of course decent.Debt now at 33b now is good.However i did think the management should be using all spare cashflow to buy back shares,at least until there is a four in front of the share prices.On the surface using the extra 40% of free cash to keep paying down debt seems a bad move.Pay down debt once the share are near £5,not £3. However i picked up on a few comments from the CEO around investment grade ratings and being in constant talk with the agencies.What this shows is that the narrative is now there that people dont want to lend to oil.So for me BP isnt continui
    26 points
  8. Lovely. Sounds like me when I've been outside working. Gives you time to think and for the mind to wander and reflect. And to appreciate and savour having the time. It's so precious. Just be careful, lots of farmers spend time alone in their tractors and they have one of the highest suicide rates. There's a guy down the road dying. So full of grace. We started off on the wrong foot but his grace brought me round. It turned out he wasn't evil or gullible, just decent. My life was richer for him and there will be a void. I just want to tell him I love him. I searched but could fi
    25 points
  9. Just remember what Stan Druckenmiller did an hour before the peak of the dotcom bubble, after previously getting out of it 2 months before: Personally I think there iare at least a few more months, and that Fed signals will tell us what to do, but my point is that you will not time this jumping in and out. If FOMO can kill one of the greatest traders and investors of all time, with respect, it will kill you. If you decide to get out, stay out IMO. Turn off the computer and do some gardening. I like your cautious voice on this thread, I wish you luck. Edit: Obv
    24 points
  10. India is so bad some of the poor fookers are dying twice!
    24 points
  11. True,but Fray Bentos tins are superb for making Yorkshire Puddings and Toad in the Hole in.Iv got one from the first week i was in my first house.Its one of three things i have still from that house.That tin,a small rug and a scar behind me ear from a dinner plate hitting it when i called the lass i was living with my exes name as she was bringing me my tea.
    23 points
  12. Here's a nice bit of data to support what we've been theorising about over the last year. We said commentary is Western centric, demand growth is in Asia, they are taking up the slack etc. Here is China: These numbers are even higher than I expected, they are carrying on as if nothing ever happened (which if you believe the idea about the CCP propaganda with people dropping dead in the streets, then opening the city a month later, makes perfect sense). What I see in this table: - Their production is more or less flat as I said. They are in the same position as Saudi: massaging
    23 points
  13. Thanks @planit very useful to have another viewpoint on this, and some good finds there. I don't think there was a price war against shale, just an underestimation. Your point about a war beeding to be quick is a good one. Their response here was slow, and they didn't flood the market with oil. This was a silly petulant little price war. I am absolutely certain they couldn't have kept up that production level, I see it as them showing their 'hand' to the market on spare capacity. I'm not the only one who noticed it. If it wasn't for Covid face saving, Russia would have humiliat
    23 points
  14. Wonderful post DB, must admit to shedding a tear this morning reading all this. Your comment above reminds me of the very reason why I am here, but it was my Dad in the hospital bed dying of cancer. He had full on dementia and was not talking a lot of sense most of the time. The evening he died we had a bit of a joke and a laugh, he became quite aware then said to me, "is everything sorted?". What do you mean? I replied. He got a bit angry and repeated "is everything sorted", I said yes, and he was happy. That was 2018, I received the inheritance and have since been trying to get it
    22 points
  15. The increase in state spending is a disaster,but certain due to the macro position,but what needs to be remembered is the more the state spends the more private assets are built up.If state spending falls fast then private assets will crash,at least at first.What i see is state spending will rise but then fall back relative to the economy. What is certain at some point is a UBI though.We have a situation now where working people are no better off than none working,that wont last.I think £100 UBI is coming,the only question is when,and how. Our political parties are all highjacked of
    22 points
  16. Yes, no media comment about declining rates despite there being no lock-down in India. I also notice that Facebook yesterday banned globally, and for ever and ever (Amen!!), all posts regarding/relating in any way to purporting/explaining a view, or even mentioning any fact - on the subject of not being vaccinated (ie so called anti-vaccers). We have entered an age of blatant, full-on censorship, where you are no longer allowed to voice an opinion, except the officially sanctioned one... interesting times indeed.
    21 points
  17. @BWW its the question that keeps us awake the most.The question is the scale.If DH is right on the scale of the bust everyone will be in trouble.Reason being even some of the best contrarian sectors and stocks have a lot of debt.For instance i think the telecom sector,and i mean the big boys here is hugely undervalued on a longer term basis.Structural undervaluation tobacco mid 90s style. However the sector has just entered the re-paying debt part of the cycle.In other words debt is very high.Thats good during an inflation,because bond holders have funded equity holders profits,but create
    21 points
  18. I hold quiet of bit of silver and gold at Goldmoney, an account that I have held and used for a long time. This has suddenly been frozen after I tried to take delivery. I now have to demonstrate a full audit trail of where my income came from going back 15 plus years, employment status, who I am, address etc. The full works under the requirement of money laundering. The daft thing is with all on line finance/banking, share accounts etc, they ask no questions regarding money laundering when you give them your money, but as soon you ask for it back you have to jump through hurdles. It is why I l
    21 points
  19. Hunter is a savage, I just spat Peroni everywhere
    20 points
  20. I told you they would shock the market and maybe go for rate increases while still printing to support government fiscal spending. ,nobody mentioned that anywhere or even crossed their minds ,yet us basement dwellers know Look at the markets today,look at the FTSE,biggest risers,oil,telcos,tobacco while NASDAQ gets whacked ,this is a money supply fiscal injection recovery direct into the economy as we always said,and the Fed is surely thinking now it needs to keep the fiscal going,but tighten through rates.
    19 points
  21. All wages are.Its not just money/demand.During a cycle change attitudes change as well.People have tasted more freedom,had death shoved in their face,even if just a small blip.Then they look at the wages and say no thanks.Its incredible the amount of jobs im being offered,its every day,sometimes a few a day.I tell them all the same thing,not enough money for the loss of time. What i have done this week though is sign on JSA,its the new tax year and so i might as well have the 6 months free money.Its also really interesting.They offered me to sign up with these guys https://www.aptem.
    19 points
  22. The media ignored the main thing to come out of this weeks climate talks.India and China said nothing really.Biden and Boris's girlfriend have no control over if an Indian family can have a fridge or not.Rightly so.The media of course ignore per capita,the only number that really matters,that and population demographics. There is also an idea than net zero means no fossil fuels.It doesnt.The term is net zero,net.In other words natural solutions and carbon capture will compensate for carbon use.Almost everyone is missing this.Thats why by 2050 i think oil use might only be down 10% in valu
    19 points
  23. Perception of supply. It was in my first post here. There is little to no difference between current inventory levels, and inventory levels in say 2014. The difference is perception of supply. Last few years, that's been US shale. Currently, it's OPEC spare capacity and US shale. I've pulled those apart here, and as you say it's getting out in the mainstream. The other element is what Lyn Alden highlighted: perception of falling demand, which is very western centric IMO. It's an explosive combination. Market paid $100 a barrel for years when it thought supplies were tight (there was still OPEC
    18 points
  24. Kolanovic gets on the DB roadmap, and points out how institutional money is going to flood into our favourite stocks.
    18 points
  25. I've read elsewhere that...... The Swiss Central Bank has just printed a ton of paper to buy KKKKK's of different US shares. The top four by percentage? Are. Drum Roll...... Kinross Gold Wheaton Precious Metals Franco-Nevada Agnico Eagle Mines Not long now.
    18 points
  26. I'm very reluctant to get into trading, as I'm sure I'll screw up, so I am following a "buy and hold indefinitely" strategy, which I hope won't be too disastrous through the economic bust. However, I do find I'm worrying about the BK, especially as DH is expecting the financial crisis to last about a year, which is not long by the standards of the great depression, but will seem like a long time as we go through it. Not only is there a danger I start fiddling with the portfolio, but also I'm finding that worrying is a distraction from my actual work: getting in some kind of financial shape is
    18 points
  27. Id buy the miners and silver over gold here.Dollar will look like its breaking up,but will instead then head towards 85.Fed will have to stop buying new treasuries and instead buy longer dated ones.This is where the government starts to worry about selling bonds as the Fed moved to yield curve control over buying new treasuries.Inflation will rip up though and tax will follow removing some pressure.Distribution cycle is now underway i think,no stopping it now apart from maybe a very sharp market and credit deflation.The like of Amazon etc can stay where they are and be terrible from here.No di
    17 points
  28. That's 100-110m oz of silver reported in the vaults that never actually existed, a mere 11% of total silver in LMBA. They have got some real problems with silver now if they are having to lie to keep a lid on the price.
    17 points
  29. One of the first things the FED did last March was change the rules so banks could buy up money market funds.It was one of the first things they did to inject liquidity,mainly to cover the fact corporate entities were pulling down credit lines back onto their balance sheets in case they needed it.The FED lost a money market fund during 08 and knew they needed to keep them liquid.Its called the MMLF scheme. If the banks are telling corporates to move that liquidity back into money market funds it would see M3 fall back heavily.This says to me the FED is pushing the banks to get some of thi
    17 points
  30. Something that im starting to understand more as i see the cross market stuff on the roadmap is the massive political risk ahead.Seeing the public sector suck more and more and seeing higher and higher benefits,pensions and salaries for bennie claims and state workers wont wash once the private sector seeing its pensions go up in smoke. Higher rates will turn everything on its head.Not only will pensions be slaughtered equity release will go up in smoke as well.Seems to me lots of assets are pricing from inflation of around 7% over the whole cycle when i think 65% is likely. Council
    17 points
  31. I seem to be largely alone in my opinion but I think this WFH thing is temporary, and the push to return to the office won't necessarily come from employers but from employees themselves. I've been long term WFH and it takes a certain personality type - I'm about as well suited to it as anyone I've ever met and even I find it hard at times. But here's what convinces me. The corporate world is full of little bastards who would rape their grandmother for a job title, let alone a pay rise. I look at how my own contacts shamelessly promote themselves on LinkedIn, and how cutthroat many of the
    17 points
  32. The US has apparently just suspended use of the J&J vaccine due to blood clot risk, so we might be about to find out. Ref your question, I am quite convinced that governments around the world have fiddled the figures to suit their own agendas since the very beginning of the pandemic, and will continue to do so. In other words, whether the vaccine(s) are successful or not is probably less relevant than what those governments decide they want the truth to be.
    17 points
  33. Everyone but a contrarian macro strategist thinks higher than expected inflation print means interest rates will go up.That would mean more demand for dollar deposits so the dollar goes up.Most bubble or as younger people call them growth companies have their future earnings discounted against higher rates,so they fall. A macro strategists job is to know about this inflation print today two years ago a bit foggy,1 year ago into the probably and 6 months ago,almost certain within a range.While the MSM and most people think the above,my roadmap is already marked out for today,though i expec
    16 points
  34. The interesting thing is that for me 1982 marked the end of the inflation cycle and the start of the great dis-inflation.The highest increase print since that date shows how moving from extremes of a cycle work.Inflation is slowly flowing into all the little cracks and veins in the economy.Like a paddy field when the water is let in. My roadmap had inflation at around 3.7% here so its printing slightly higher.Dollar will increase slightly on the expectation of rate increase,then fall towards 85 when the marked understands even if it gets a token,the real rate is staying at -3%+ because th
    16 points
  35. Just come back from kids football. Unable to ignore crypto chatter from behind me. Everyone's an expert. Plenty of nods over what to buy and how. Shine ya shoes, guvna?
    16 points
  36. On the mortgage front, looks like I did well to fix for 15 years as all products withdrawn now, and rates on 10 year fixes now higher than what I secured. Yet another subtle but key signal regarding long term inflation expectations.
    16 points
  37. Absolutely love this graph. Remember it when you hear a forecast, they're always wrong. It's just astonishing to think each one of those 'hairs' is a forecast based on a team of 'analysts' making six figure salaries. So, so much wrong. That's why I listen to the likes of DH and @DurhamBorn who say "timing is impossible, roadmap only gives direction".
    16 points
  38. Little note to everybody regarding Hargreaves Cuntsdown. Just having a mooch about on their platform checking that my dividends were being automatically reinvested. They were, at a default minimum of £10 with a commission of 1% or £1 (minimum). Now I have a fair few small dividends come in from small holdings in gold/silver miners in particular. I've had dividends coming in for £10, HL then buy a couple more shares and charge me the minimum of £1 - 10% of the transaction. Imagine what that does to your portfolio value over a long period of time - and to their profits. I changed the m
    16 points
  39. Talking to a builder mate today, does a range of medium size projects across australia. timber costs up through the roof. insulation and other supplies from overseas fucked and prices rising. tradie salaries up in some sectors by 50% since mid 2020. He and I talked about inflation back in 2020, so he bought extra storage space for materials, stocked up, and is now pretty fucking happy with me. He forward bought timber direct from the sawmills here in Vic and save himself - in his words - 25% minimum on prices this month. Inflation demon out of the bottle here in Oz.
    16 points
  40. I thought it sounded like it was going to be the start of an old school joke then. I’ll bust one out anyway... Three parrots in a pet shop for sale. They were priced at £170, £150 and £10. A woman asks the shopkeeper "Why is that parrot so cheap?" The shopkeeper replies "Because it used to live in a brothel." The woman finds this amusing so she buys the parrot. On returning home the parrot takes in its new surroundings and says "Fuck me, a new brothel!". The woman laughs. A few hours later, her two daughters come home and the parrot pipes up once more "Fuck
    15 points
  41. Exactly,like we have always said on here,the cycle would end with a huge fiscal impulse.They are going around the banks and direct into the economy. Financial markets first,then it comes out of those into the economy.Thats why most people get things back to front.Bank balance sheets are fine mostly as long as there is no BK,but they arent lending much because of lack of demand and fear over bad loans,mostly CP CBs and government are trying to lift base money sky high,then sit back and rake the tax in with negative rates for a cycle.Its as obvious as you can get from a macro point an
    15 points
  42. 15 points
  43. Cross post from the sceptics thread. Brilliant 40 mins interview on here with former Professor of Pathology and Dr of 30 years,John Lee.He covers most of the major issues with covid the disease and explains how the Lockdown hasn't/won't work,how it's been counterproductive,why many NPI's such as masks don't work. All in all,if you watch one video from the last year on Covid,it should be this one.
    15 points
  44. This prompted me to say, to you as well as the usual posters this thread has been on fire for the past few days, thanks everyone. Too busy and/or knackered to do much but give out well-earned reps but trying to read it all.
    15 points
  45. @sancho panza thats right,and i think the welfare system in the UK is hugely to blame.There is no incentive for people to build capital outside of housing.My friend gets £2200 a month in benefits,you need capital of around half a mill to get that income from 60/40 type funds.An ordinary paid couple would need to save hard most of their lives to get what he gets for free.In the past welfare wasnt that nice.It was ok if you had kids,but a struggle.Not now.Of course,its so generous now people also defraud it more and more.I think around 20%+ will be fraud,government think less than 1%.Mostly sing
    15 points
  46. Maybe there needs to be more vote buttons on this forum. Suggestions: - Well, that's soured my day. - Fucking depressing. - Pass the arsenic.
    15 points
  47. Here is a signpost: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/04/11/saudi-arabia-tapping-uk-expertise-build-105-mile-strip-city/ So they want to build a modern megacity in the middle of nowhere, with relaxed rules to attract foreign investment. When I first heard about Neom, I thought "they are doing a Dubai". In this article, the stupid journalist says "Although it has been talked down by Saudi officials, a key reason for the project is to combat the dominance of Dubai in the area." Really? What does Saudi care about Dubai? Apart from setting them an example. What the jounalist miss
    15 points
  48. True,but very hard to roadmap it.The irony is i think a digital currency that sees 2% increase in units a year would be fantastic if if was locked at that and couldnt be changed.You could set rates between 1% and 3% to e Exactly and as @Cattle Prod shows everyone the price is set at the margins.The beauty about sentiment now is its cutting off investment.Look at Bp .Instead of investing those billions into finding new reserves etc they are instead giving it back to shareholders.In a way the woke brigade are the best friend shareholders in the sector have.They are making sure new
    15 points
  49. @sancho panza i think they will use both.We might see some QE still and a rate increase.The thing to remember here is the CBs havent really monetised government debt,they have monetised private debt by the government handing the printed money to the public and companies.So yes in pure simple terms the CBs monetised government debt,but the real affect was monetising private debt. Why do that?,well because they want the private sector to take over the recovery from government once its in flow so governments structural deficits can be eliminated.Fed will be wanting to keep the long end from
    15 points
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