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Showing content with the highest reputation since 25/03/17 in all areas

  1. Iv been taking myself away from it all a bit and doing jobs that need doing and just enjoying seeing my family etc.Im very worried about where we are heading for my families future.Mostly what is happening is exactly what we road mapped a good few years ago,so everyone on this thread should be in clover so far.What worries me though Bob is that things move quicker than i can macro and cross market.This thread is incredible,and im so thankful that every single person who adds and spends time here has kept the thread an open place for everyone.Every single person who joins in,reads etc have contributed in a fantastic ways.Iv always been driven be sharing opinion with fellow people and learning from each other.My friend told me long ago that if you stop listening your fucked.Its funny,but when i look at things i see work iv done that is probably better than most working in multi national banks etc,yet i was trained by better than any of them have now.The irony is i came from the poorest town you can imagine and the poverty i saw shaped me in so many ways.Sometimes i question myself along the lines of if understanding the way the CBs control things if i should somehow of pushed myself to pursue a political career and try to change things,but it always seemed way too big.My dad did stand against Blair though for MP in Sedgfield.Utter legend my dad. Iv been a bit back off from the tread lately in anything meaningful and havent added anything much of worth.Luckily this thread is full of quality people though who bring things and keep it going. You know at 18 i went for a job with RBS and i did all their tests.They sacked me off,mainly because i went to a terrible comp in the poorest part of England .I told them in interview they were going bankrupt and their models didnt work out,and they did,go bankrupt..Luckily a year later i applied for Glaxo and came 2nd out of 6000 in their tests.The only score higher became their CFO.Thats where i met the best macro strategist of the last 50 years from Fidelity.Hunter was on the team but an apprentice to him.Fidelty had just taken over Glaxos pension assets in the US.By the way it pains me to see the fucking shit managers at Glaxo since.Its an amazing company ran by accountants for 20 years.I took a payoff because i had cancer and wanted the moneyinstead of nothing in case i died for my kids.I told my dad i heard a Thrush singing when i was in hospital and i hadnt heard one for years.He said this to me "youve heard a thrush many a day,you just stopped listening you silly cunt and its about time you started listening again" Damn right,when you stop listening your out of the game. I was telling my partner at the weekend how everything is getting a worry.She just laughed. My partner had a shit of a husband.Beat the crap out of her.When i met her she warned me off.She said her ex sorted anyone she met etc and she didnt want me to suffer that.I went in his local and put him over the bar the next day,told his drinking buddies if they even looked they would go the journey as well,what she didnt know and they did know were some of my friends from my younger years ran the area. She has family in Bridlington and we have many a good weekend down there.Her cousin wouldnt go in a certain pub,too rough,but my partner just says oh it will be fine and winks at me.She knows fine well if anyone touched her id put them through the window and the worrying thing is id actually enjoy it. 13 years old i was sat on my back step watching the starlings go in their nests in the outside toilets in the back alley.I heard the works buzzer go as normal,but the difference was this day,blokes built like brick shithouses and as hard as nails were crying as they walked up the back alleys.They were crying because they had shit the shops,3000 men on the dole,and they couldnt take a wage home to their wives. I wish i could take the system down.I cant.All we can do is try yo keep in front of the bastards and keep our families freedoms. Dollar is going to 87,dont sell Bp without a 4 in front of it. Sorry for rambling,but i love you all
    66 points
  2. No matter what kind of spin they try to put on it, it is buggered. I might be a bit biased having watched the big short again tonight, but we were already heading there. Sub prime car loans in the US were rife. The UK not far behind. And BTL lending is off the scale. When (if) lockdown ends, people seem to assume life and trade will go back to normal. It won't. Firstly, there will be an expectation of a second wave. People will have learned their lesson and will start saving at all costs. Discretionary spending will be close to zero. Redundancies will be huge. Maybe up to 50% of furloughed staff. They just won't be needed. Too much of our trade is reliant upon a good summer. If they only get half a summer, with few tourists, December / January will see a huge rise in company bankruptcies. A lot of micro businesses will just decide it isn't worth the grief and shut up shop. I don't think many people are understanding just how bad things are going to be, once the 'health' issues are over. It will be carnage.
    54 points
  3. These people are liars. Wear a mask they all shout. But it says on the packet that it won't protect you from covid viruses? PCR testing is the way out of this pandemic they scream. But the PCR test can't tell the difference between Covid-19 and the common cold, or flu? Vaccines are the answer, if the old vulnerable over 60's over 50's over 30's over 20's over 12's everyone takes it. But the vaccine only builds upon the natural immune system and that only last for 6 months. They won't work as it will take 2 years to vaccinate everyone. The third shot will do it, just one more.... Vaccine passports.... that's the one. If everybody gets one then the pandemic is OVER! Your vaccine has failed to stop infection and transmission, some would argue that it's driving new variants. So what's the point of knowing the vaccine status of anyone? Fuck off and leave me alone... I would rather die of covid than listen to any more of this fucking shit!
    47 points
  4. Great interview by David Hunter, posted earlier in the week by @The Idiocrat. Lots of information, including timings and targets. I have posted below my summary table, and I'll add a rough transcript for those who prefer use text for reference. I have been thinking a bit more about strategy for the months ahead, and I'll put up my conclusions later, for people to criticise.
    47 points
  5. So a bit of an update, especially for @ashestoashes and @The Masked Tulip: The anecdotal wasn't just one surgeon the missus spoke to at St. Mary's Hospital, but four vascular surgeons, I specifically asked what she meant by 'younger' and she said '20's, 30's and 40's' - Even 40's is young for vascular embolism surgery. 'So....' I coyly asked (as she knows it'll get posted on here in some shape or form) 'Vaxxed or unvaxxed' 'Put it this way'. she replied, 'All the patients are asked which vaccine they have had and how many doses before they have surgery... the data is being collected. I don't know any that haven't had at least one jab, but I'm not involved with all the cases.' Be interesting to see what happens with the data, or if it's just buried - but it's being collected apparently, and many of these cases are shockingly young. Now, she did say that these patients could be predisposed to clotting, but then those are the ones you'd expect to see have trouble first.... and the numbers are apparently nowhere near normal. If I hear any more news....
    46 points
  6. 45 points
  7. Just wanted to wish everyone a happy xmas and for all adding their thoughts and knowledge to the thread this year.I think we can safely say without any doubt the thread has proved itself and a lot of the previous hard work paid off in buckets and hopefully helped a lot of people hold their nerve and enter the right sectors in the falls we were waiting for earlier in the year. Value/inflation sectors will start to feel the liquidity from M2 later in spring as the lag would suggest it will be entering the real economy.Inflation could be around 3% late summer,and the fact it then slowly creeps higher (outside of a BK) will force a massive movement in assets from disinflation loving assets to inflation ones. The sterling target of around $1.40 looks in play,then later resource currency like CAD and AUS will start their long 8 year increases. Remember the market isnt linear.It will continue to try to shake out weak hands from the reflation sectors so hardly anyone captures the long upside. Most people will end up like this turkey here,stuffed.
    45 points
  8. Sooooo... The missus had a conversation with a consultant vascular surgeon today and he confided that he has NEVER seen so many embolism cases come through the door in the last month amongst the YOUNG at St Mary's. BOOM - you can take that to the bank, the missus never exaggerates this sort of thing.
    43 points
  9. We are so lucky to have @dgul here!! Always informative!!! It's appreciated. Thank you.
    42 points
  10. Exactly,my portfolio hit a record today,really really pleased how things have gone for people on here.A few mistakes along the way,but a lot of work from people has really shown through.I think we are all very well positioned for more gains,but we have work to do yet.Im really pleased @Cattle Prod was able to add his huge knowledge as my roadmap was screaming to go really heavy on oilies/gas and it helped to confirm that. Aim of the thread was to help share knowledge so ordinary people could protect and grow their saved labour.I think so far we can easily say that it has been a huge success,and after all this time still a welcoming place for anyone,young or old,a few quid,or the end of a saving life.Experienced or not.Lots to navigate ,but im confident we are in the right areas.
    42 points
  11. Thanks DB that was a poignant post which I can relate to. Having grown up in a very downtrodden area, the schools were shit and chaos reigned (luckily my brothers reputation allowed me to blag my way through the rough stuff) but the quality of teaching was far worse. At high school I made the decision to teach myself from Letts books as I was always either sent out or on report and learnt little in class anyway. I walked away from school with several A* grades and all the rest A-Cs. One of my highest grades was in history which I hadn’t attended in months as the teacher didn’t want me in his class. His dumbfounded face, when I got the highest grade in the year instead of any of his favourite students, was a sight to behold. But then again that need to turn the system on its head has always been my driving force. Judgements based on my background or the way I talk, has followed me into my work career. All my peers are privately educated, very middle class and have phds. I’ve got to that same level through pure grind with the self-taught knowledge, skills and experience along the way. Studies supposedly say that people make up their minds about you in 1/10th of second. Social class structure, preconceived opinions and subconscious bias is something I’ve had to contend with my whole adult life, but I never really let that hold me back. I accepted from a young man that’s the way it will always be. ‘If it is to be its up to me’ as my mum would always say. Some people get a leg up others don’t. Being from a rough background doesn’t score you a tick in any boxes and I’m not quite sure my privilege ever got out the starting block. The point I’m getting to with all this, is that the system is designed to keep us within our preconceived boxes, indebted all our lives paying ever growing mortgages we’ll never finish paying, or interest on stuff we don’t really want or need, paying tax on what we earn, what we buy, on what we own and when we die. The debt based system would collapse without it. I’m sure I speak for most here, that we all know that something is drastically wrong at we’re at a tipping point. I’m supposedly in the top 9% of earners in the country, yet I can’t afford a small house anywhere where I grew up on paper. By that metric alone it suggests something isn’t quite right. We all know what’s coming, its just navigating through to whatever awaits the other side that matters. But I think the most important key is from DB’s dad there. We could spend our entire lives being angry at the system and at the irrational decisions those in charge supposedly make for ‘our own good’. I sat for an hour last weekend, enjoying the air and sunshine at a the beach while my daughter played and paddled in the sea. I found myself staring at an intricately shaped sea-worn pebble. That pebble was probably around to see empires come and go and will be around long after me. Life’s gone in a blink of an eye, it’s so easy to get dragged along with it all. I have to remind myself sometimes to stop every so often to just appreciate the beauty of life itself along the way.
    41 points
  12. From a 4chan thread, I think this is a fair roundup of the situation. I’ve been watching the unfolding of the current Covid-19 pandemic since the first news stories about it in the late fall of 2019, and like many people, I find the official story that’s grown up around the virus and the response to it impossible to take seriously. Partly that’s because the official narrative has been veering around like a well-greased weathercock on a blustery day, and partly it’s because large elements of that narrative are contradicted by scientific studies or, in many cases, the press releases on which the narrative itself is based. The fact that people are now being banned from social media for quoting pharmaceutical companies’ own documents is a good indication that there’s some serious falsification going on here. Yet I find it just as hard to believe the main alternative story on offer these days. This is the claim that the virus and the vaccine are part of a sinister plan to take away what remains of civil liberties worldwide, along the lines of Klaus Schwab’s maunderings about a Great Reset. The problem here is that this sort of scheme would require governments and corporations everywhere to behave with a degree of competence they very clearly don’t display in any other context. On reflection, it seems to me that what’s happened over the last two years makes sense if you simply factor in the shortsightedness, incompetence, and venality that government and corporate sectors alike have displayed in all their other dealings of late. With this in mind, I’ve sketched out a hypothetical reconstruction of what has actually been happening. It’s speculative but it accounts for the facts as I know them. As usual, I’ve focused on events in the United States, the one country I know tolerably well; readers in other countries will need to modify this story to fit their own local conditions. I haven’t footnoted anything; do your own internet searches on the important concepts listed below and you’ll find plenty of data. Stage One: Business as Usual The Covid-19 coronavirus was manufactured as part of gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan, China. Gain-of-function research? That’s one of the currently hot fields of virus research, involving genetic engineering to make viruses more virulent in their effects on tissue cultures. It’s dangerous enough that federal regulations prohibit it in the US, which is why it was going on in China. Funding for the research, however, came from one of the many US government slush funds that prop up the pharmaceutical industry, by way of a pass-through entity to provide a fig leaf of plausible deniability. This is normal practice, part of the culture of kleptocracy that funnels tax dollars into corporate pockets with zero accountability. Stage Two: A Minor Little Oopsie Someone made a mistake, and the Covid-19 coronavirus got outside the supposedly secure facility where it was being kept. People in and around Wuhan started getting sick. Early on, there were a lot of deaths, but the death rate slid as the virus adapted to its new hosts in the usual way, ending up about as serious as a bad flu. (Respiratory viruses reliably do this: the sicker a patient gets, the fewer people on average they can infect, and this selection differential very rapidly turns novel respiratory viruses into highly transmissible but not especially dangerous members of the ordinary human respiratory flora.) So we saw an initial wave of stark panic and overreaction on the part of politicians and the media, followed by reassurances that everything would be fine after all, along with various more or less frantic attempts to keep anyone from finding out that the US government funded the creation of the virus. Stage Three: Cashing In On The Sick Then the pharmaceutical industry realized that Covid-19 had the potential to be a gargantuan cash cow. Since the Covid-19 virus could be counted on to mutate at the usual pace, if they could come up with a vaccine, they could count on being able to release a new booster shot every single year, and make the kind of reliable profits they now make from the annual flu vaccine. Since big pharma’s profiteering at the expense of patients has become a political hot potato in the US of late, the idea of a new source of extreme profits had a very definite appeal. This is why several effective dietary and pharmaceutical treatments for the virus got deep-sixed, since nobody was going to make billions off them, and it’s also why dud pharmaceuticals such as Remdesvir got hauled off the shelf and heavily marketed—they’re still patented and so can be sold for hundreds or thousands of dollars a dose. Stage Four: Super Geek To The Rescue At this point Bill Gates comes into the picture. Most of our current crop of kleptocratic godzillionaires like to play at saving the world in one way or another. (It apparently helps them avoid thinking about the way their firms maltreat their employees, cheat their suppliers, and screw the public.) Gates’ save-the-world hobby is vaccines, and the Gates Foundation is accordingly a major player in the vaccine industry. One of the foundation’s biotechnology patents was well suited to the situation, at least on paper. Pharma corporations thus churned out competing versions of a Covid-19 vaccine using that patent. Mind you, the technology in question has had very mixed results, because it has serious problems with antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), a known complication of immunization in which an ineffective vaccine makes it easier for a virus to make you sick. Nor was adequate testing done to find out if the Covid vaccines had that problem. The vaccines went into production anyway, since the pharmaceutical industry has a long history of launching inadequately tested drugs on the market with serene disregard for safety issues. (Remember Fen-Phen?) Stage Five: Marketing Maneuvers The political systems of modern industrial nations are riddled with graft, and so corporate interests can reliably get politicians to say and do whatever will help boost their profits. Once the goal du jour became marketing the vaccine to as many people as possible, therefore, politicians did what they were paid to do and turned on a dime, insisting that Covid-19 was sure to kill us all unless we all got vaccinated, and slapping on mask mandates and shutdowns as part of the political theater. That was purely a marketing gimmick. Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer was one among many official voices telling people in smug tones that if they wanted to have their lives back they’d better hurry up and get vaccinated. Various interesting irregularities in what counted as a case of Covid and what counted as a Covid fatality were also put to work in this cause. This served the necessary purpose of whipping up a classic media panic, to try to make everyone run out and get vaccinated. Stage Six: The Pushback Begins The problem is that a great many Americans do not trust the medical industry. There’s good reason for their mistrust, as medical malpractice has long been among the leading causes of death in the United States, and medical profiteering is far and away the leading cause of bankruptcy here as well. Thus an impressive number of people—possibly as many as half the population—flatly refused to get the vaccines. It didn’t help that the vaccines themselves turned out to have serious immediate side effects, including sudden death, at a rate a couple of orders of magnitude higher than any other vaccine currently in use. Though Soviet-style censorship was slapped on social media to keep “misinformation” from spreading, hard questions about the official narrative got asked with increasing frequency, and the number of people getting the Covid-19 shots flatlined: while the US government is now claiming that 70% of adult Americans are vaccinated, other sources of data suggest that the actual number is much less than that. Stage Seven: Don’t Breathe A Word Of This There was another reason for people to be suspicious, though that wasn’t clear at first. Everyone who’s had to use Microsoft programs knows that Bill Gates’ management style tends to produce second-rate, bug-ridden products that don’t work the way they’re supposed to work, and have to be pushed on reluctant consumers via high-pressure marketing and monopolistic practices. It turns out that the same was true of the biotechnology on which the Covid-19 vaccines are based. That would have been discovered in the usual way during the two to five years of testing a new vaccine normally gets, but the Covid vaccines didn’t get that; the first one to be authorized had a total of eight weeks of not especially rigorous testing, the others didn’t get much more, and so a far from minor problem slipped past. In the spring of 2021 word thus began to trickle out that the Covid-19 vaccines had a serious problem with ADE: once the initial protection wore off, a process which took a few months, people who’d been vaccinated were much more likely to get seriously ill from repeat exposure to Covid-19 than people who hadn’t. Thus the federal government and the medical industry suddenly had a self-inflicted disaster on their hands. Stage Eight: Panic In The C-Suites The first response of the people in power, of course, was to find somebody else to take the blame. That’s when politicians and the media turned on a dime (again) and suddenly started admitting that the virus could have come from the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That’s when Bill Gates suddenly stopped being the poster child for the vaccine effort and got dumped in a hurry by his wife and kids, and when Anthony Fauci suddenly had to deal with a flurry of negative publicity and the unexplained cancellation of his ghostwritten memoirs. The goal was to find someone—Gates, Fauci, the Chinese, anyone—who could be made into the fall guy and blamed for the impending mess. Apparently that first round of bad news was followed by even worse news, however; I suspect that the news was that the ADE caused by the vaccine had a noticeable fatality rate, but that’s just a guess. One way or another, finding fall guys wasn’t an adequate dodge any more, since at this stage it wasn’t just careers that were at risk: it was potentially the viability of the entire political-economic establishment. Stage Nine: Things Get Serious All of a sudden, as a result, it was no longer enough to vaccinate 70% of the US population. Everyone without exception had to get vaccinated—if everyone gets the vaccine, after all, it will be easier to claim that what’s happening is a nasty new variant rather than vaccine-driven ADE, since nobody will be able to point out that the unvaccinated aren’t getting it. All of a sudden, officials dropped the (inaccurate) claim that the vaccines keep you from getting Covid-19. New outbreaks flared in which most people who got sick had been fully vaccinated; stories surfaced in the media about how strange it was that so many people were getting really nasty summer colds; the labor shortage somehow just kept getting worse and other shortages snowballed, but if you suggested that it was because too many people were sick you could count on being shouted down. Authorities began to talk earnestly about how a new variant might show up soon that would kill a third of the people who caught it. Under normal circumstances, there’s no way they could know that in advance. It makes perfect sense, however, if the vaccines have been found to cause serious ADE and they already have a good idea of what the fatality rate will be. This is where we are as I write this. If my hypothesis is right, here’s what we can expect. Stage Ten: Hoping for a Miracle As ADE becomes more common, breakthrough infection clusters will pop up with increasing frequency, and the higher the percentage of the population in that region is vaccinated, the worse they will be. Variants will be blamed for this. Word of the imminent crisis will spread through the upper levels of society, however, causing increasingly frantic and irrational behavior, until it becomes next to impossible to get anything done if it depends on the government or big corporations. Medical laboratories will scramble to find a way to counteract ADE, though that’s been tried for decades now without success. Meanwhile the people who refuse to get vaccinated won’t budge no matter how much furious rhetoric and punitive policy gets dumped on them. Once this becomes clear, authorities will insist that everyone but a few holdouts has been vaccinated, in the fond hope that people will believe them one more time. Stage Eleven: Into The Endgame When ADE becomes too widespread to ignore and people begin to die in significant numbers, expect governments to proclaim the arrival of the predicted new hyper-lethal variant and impose a new round of shutdowns, mask mandates, and the like. The media will insist that the people who are dying are all unvaccinated as long as they can get away with it; pay attention to the vaccination status and health outcomes of people you know for a reality check. Unless some way of stopping ADE-enhanced infections can be found in a hurry, medical systems will buckle under the caseload and triage will become the order of the day. How soon this will happen, if it does, is impossible to say in advance. It’s also impossible to know in advance how soon it will become clear that the vaccines are responsible—or just how violent a backlash against the political and economic establishment this could provoke.
    40 points
  13. Great comment.. Bless the government. They'll do anything to protect us from the virus: They'll lockdown people on the holidays, they'll blood test school children for antibodies, they'll reinstate the green passes and they'll force everyone to wear masks on semi desertic summer weather, they'll spend billions on vaccines, propaganda, enforcement, they'll close the schools.... The only thing they won't do is to early treat the patients at risk of developing severe disease with cheap and safe meds and vitamins
    40 points
  14. Interesting paper: https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciab707/6353927 They found that if they delivered the mRNA vaccine (Pfizer) direct into the blood, just under half of the mice developed myocarditis. Lower levels of myocarditis were seen when they injected into muscle (the usual route). The important point here isn't 'well, don't inject it into the blood then', but that the vaccines aren't completely safe and that it is very important that it is delivered in exactly the right way (which might not be compatible with a rushed 'vaccinate everyone using anyone qualified to hold a syringe). It also isn't clear if intramuscular injection always has a risk of the stuff getting into the bloodstream, no matter how careful the injection -- so it might be that it isn't simply a matter of telling the jabbers to do a better job. They also suggest that some people might simply be more sensitive to the vaccines and have a higher risk of myocarditis even with intramuscular injection. A very important finding was that after the first jab the mice developed subclinical myocarditis, that is, there weren't any outward signs that anything was wrong, but that this was made made much worse by the second jab to give clinical symptoms of myocarditis. This suggests that it isn't simply a matter of a very few people 'having a bad response', but that there are likely a high number with subclinical myocarditis -- we don't know if this would lead to problems later in life (eg, might this increase heart attack risk by 5% (say) -- we just don't know). There's also the question of the third dose -- if the second dose makes things worse, does a third dose repeat the risk of the second dose, or is there a 'number of doses' effect where the third dose has a higher risk again -- we just don't know. They couldn't work out if the damage was permanent or not, nor what precise mechanism was causing it -- 'unknowns' are bad when it comes to universal policy in medicine, particularly when there's no benefit to the individual and where there's no chance of 'undoing' the medical intervention. They also had a significant weight loss in both vaccine groups. This was incidental to the main finding, but I don't think there's a known mechanism for this to occur -- so they're jabbing without knowing what the jabs are doing. They also found cytokine/chemokine production for both vaccine groups, beyond what might be expected in a vaccine -- it isn't clear what the implications of this are. And they also found liver damage in the vaccine groups, worse in those given intravenous vaccine. They note that there are reports of autoimmune hepatitis in covid vaccinated humans (first I've heard of this), and suggest that the liver damage found in the study might be due to related mechanisms. And then, right at the end: Ie, if you don't look hard you'll simply see a heart attack. And they're not looking hard...
    39 points
  15. I’ve submitted quite a few negative tests, as required for work, but I’ve still no idea how to perform the test. If there are any steps between opening the packet and scanning the code, ticking negative and sending it off, then I’ve clearly misunderstood.
    39 points
  16. A thread to post Neil Oliver articles or video clips. What a top man. Getting lots of criticism, again, for what he says in this latest offering but willing to speak out. Common sense in spades.
    38 points
  17. Another one for the anecdotes pile... My younger sibling collapsed at home yesterday with chest pain. Taken to hospital in an ambulance. No infarction, but other cardiac issues (I won't be too specific). Blood test results for clots not yet returned. Home now and told to follow up with GP or ring 999 for another episode of chest pain. Apparently, they have been getting chest pains since their 2nd AZ shot - a little detail that my parents have neglected to mention when nagging me to get the jab .
    38 points
  18. I chose not to get the jab. My, soon to be ex, partner is double jabbed and came back form a camping trip with the parents with the plague. She has been moderately uncomfortable with headaches and sore throat for three days now but is coming round. I too am now blighted with this confounded malady and fear it could be the end of me. Yesterday I tested positive after having a headache akin to half a shandy the night before and releasing a few early morning throat oysters. I am now laid up in bed, fucking milking it. Ten days off work. I don't get paid to be off sick so am unlikely to develop Long Covid. I have planned for this however, I have not taken any holiday this year, as I expected to get it sooner or later, so will book this isolation period as holiday. Another anecdote to add to the pile though. Caught this terrible affliction off someone who is double jabbed and have "suffered" a less severe reaction, who'd have thunk it? Anyway, back to affairs in order. I need ten days of entertainment. Any recommendations?* *already done that and am sore after the fifth.
    38 points
  19. My first anecdotal. Friend of a friends brother found dead on a park bench. Post mortem says blood clots on lungs. Had only been chatting on the phone about what they were doing for Christmas a few hours before. Healthy 55 year old, decent weight, active, no known other issues.
    38 points
  20. This is probably upthread, but it is the first time I've seen it so I'll repost https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098 So, in that article we've got: Natural immunity is better than vaccine because it is for the whole virus, not just spike, which gives better protection against variants Natural immunity involves t-cells. And is probably long lasting 50% of children have already caught covid (and aren't ill or anything, not even with long covid) By boostering everyone we're 'digging ourselves into a hole' With the vaccines we train the immune system to respond to a virus attack in the blood; with natural infection we train the lung specific immune system 'we're just frightening people now' What we do with most respiratory viruses is just 'top up immunity' with very mild annual reinfection. Now, their main point is that adults now have 'enough' protection (because vaccine) and children don't need any vaccine protection, but... Those points are very very important -- why weren't they being promoted 6 months ago instead of the crazy hubris driven jabfest that we actually got? We were told emphatically that vaccine protection was superior than natural infection. Frankly, I'm amazed that the BBC even published it -- if I'd written exactly that on Facebook only a week ago I'd have been defriended by at least half of my contacts -- indeed, if I wrote that now, without referencing the BBC, i'd be defriended by them. Anyway, only a couple more points needed and then we'll have the full argument. I wonder how long it'll take for the BBC to mention them: Vaccines make things worse in the non-vulnerable (side effects, ADE). Cheap and effective treatments exist.
    38 points
  21. There's been lots of misinformation associated with Covid, from microchips to 5G. But I'm now seeing rather a lot of misinformation from 'official channels'. Note this isn't just misleading through omission, but actually saying things that aren't true. Today I've seen an BBC article on long-covid, which gives a few examples of people that have been hospitalised, are now in a wheelchair, etc. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56113021. Now, I believe that long-covid is a thing, but it is different from normal post-viral fatigue (which is common) and is actually very rare. But in the article we have This is highly misleading -- it suggests that the serious-things occur in about 10% of people, rather than the reality (which in in the BMJ article) that about 10% of people feel fatigued for about a month following infection (usually a serious infection), and that some people still feel 'wrong' even 3 months after. The serious-things are very very rare and there actually hasn't been enough research to identify if they really are to do with the covid infection at all (IMO they're a form of ADE, but that's not an orthodox scientific view at the moment so this isn't the place). But the BBC is allowed to say this type of thing without being censored. The other thing I heard today was the advert aimed to encourage BAME people (and everyone else) to take the vaccine. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-56101990 Now, I do think that vulnerable groups should be encouraged to take the vaccine, and BAME are more vulnerable than others in a similar group, so that's great. But they shouldn't make stuff up just to sell this to the BAME vulnerable -- the benefits should be clear even with honest and open discussion of the risks. In that video we've got: Taking the vaccine is the only way to boost your immunity to covid. Not true -- you could decide to catch covid instead. Now, this is only a reasonable (safe) strategy for the non-vulnerable, but they're not putting it in context, just an absolute 'take the vaccine'. The vaccine was available quickly because of a global effort (and because of lots of cash). It was available quickly because they skipped pharmacovigilance in the trials. This was absolutely necessary (and a good thing) because of the need to protect vulnerable groups, but they shouldn't be suggesting that normal 'slowness' in vaccine development is only because of lack of a global effort. What we do know is that Covid's long term implications are deadly. It is the short term implications that are deadly. As far as we know at the moment there doesn't seem to be much issue with long term implications (other than death being permanent). The vaccines have gone through the same strict process and regulations as other vaccines such as for measles, mumps, rubella and TB. They haven't -- they've skipped pharmacovigilance and have had emergency approval -- and that's just for the vulnerable. They've not gone anywhere near the amount of extended pharmacovigilance normally required for approval for use in people that won't personally benefit. Now, this is a good thing for the vulnerable as the vaccines are all fantastic and all vulnerable should be taking advantage of them. But I'm very weary of suggesting non-vulnerable people should be taking it, as they've just not been tested for long enough to identify medium- and long-term implications. I also don't like the talk of other vaccines -- those vaccines had years of testing to identify problems before being offered to people that would benefit personally from them (ie, they're suggesting safety by association). I also don't think it is generally suggested that anyone take any of those vaccines if they wouldn't personally benefit (though I doubt that there would be any problems if they did take them). There is no chip or tracker in the vaccine. Absolutely -- of course there isn't. To think that there is is madness. But this is a serious infomercial and everything has its place -- to put 'there's no tracker in it' alongside 'it is fully tested' suggests that they're equally valid (or, that it is equally mad to say 'they contain microchips' as 'they're not fully tested'). This type of propaganda is very dangerous and shouldn't be used in this type of infomercial (IMO shouldn't be used at all). And the advert goes on, but my fingers are too tired to keep on pointing out the misinformation contained in it.
    38 points
  22. An update from my clinics. I’ve not reported any yellow cards over the past 2 weeks. Make of that what you will, vaccination numbers have really fallen, most people I’m seeing had their last jabs in June, very few in July none so far in August.
    37 points
  23. This was one of the main factors behind me leaving the prison service. I joined in 2003 and I learned the ropes from ex squaddies and NCOs, every prison was staffed by around 80% ex forces. They'd been around and seen a thing or two, all solid blokes you'd want next you in a tight spot. Then around 2010 they started recruiting more and more women and it became an absolute joke. Because I'm a big unit I always had to get kitted up and man the shield when a prisoner smashed a cell up and armed himself. One day my old school boss said "Fuck this, pointed at three female officers and said 'you get paid the same as him, get kitted up for a cell extraction, you're the three man team today'. Two of them started crying. My boss insisted though so in they went and in cartoon style the prison threw them out of the cell one at a time and they went sliding along the floor with this bewildered look on their faces. I just wanted to make the point that there are so many institutions in this country that once led the world: we really did have the best police, army prison service etc, but theyre now hollowed out, living on the reputations earned by better men who are long gone. Most people havent realised this yet and the destruction of our liberties without a whimper due to covid hysteria is just the first in a series of shocks coming down the line. We live in a giant potemkin village called Britain. Way off topic I know, so I'll leave it there.
    37 points
  24. None of us can determine what is going on or what the end game is, we can only theorise and will ultimately be wrong on many things as this progresses. What we have been right on, and can be pretty much certain of, is that we're not dealing with a natural pandemic. None of what has happened so far passes the sniff test. Going all the way back the people falling on the street in China, the race for ventilators, nightingale hospitals, WHO saying masks don't work and then governments insisting on them etc etc, it's been never ending The way the government have behaved towards the vaccine is the most telling - their rabid determination is just not a normal response. The speed it was rolled out, the new technology used, the poor efficacy at preventing transmission, the complete disregard to other remedies and the way they have gone about pushing it is just not right. Add on that the makers of the vaccine saying 'they downloaded the genetic code from China and had a vaccine designed in 3 hours' Link If there was a true pandemic we wouldn't need reminding, there would be bodies in the streets and we wouldn't be relying on a half hearted vaccine that at best barely works. As the journey so far is completely at odds with the response to a natural pandemic event, we are either dealing with something like a bioweapon (airborne AIDS) or the vaccine is for other purposes, and for those reasons, I'm staying clear.
    36 points
  25. I saw this this morning and immediately my spidey senses were tingling. Opening up duckduckduckgo with the guy's name and covid - you saw the identical headlines, word for word - with maybe 1 or 2 words changed and the same stock pictures.... the story was identical across all the different news platforms/sites and agencies .... almost like it's a co-ordinated story/event. So until you dig further down into one reporting do you find that someone has made reference to this guy had asthma (apparently a relative had mentioned it on twatter) - that's a pre-existing health condition and a large risk factor. Also, this guy was a bodybuilder and competed in competitions, pretty much all body builders will have used steroids at some point, these weaken the heart, plus all bodybuilders have an atrocious diet that puts serious strain on organ systems like the liver and kidney. They aren't 'fit' by any definiton. Now lets back to the actual story - what was he admitted into hospital for? It's not stated, just HE HAD THE COOF AND WISHED HE WAS VACCINATED (ACCORDING TO A PHYSICIAN WHO IS MOST CERTAINLY FUCKING LYING) The story continues that he was in hospital .... and was in ICU ... and had massive organ failure (yet died of the coof the headline insinuate ... but don't actually say. You see how the clever use of language is) If someone is in ICU and dies of organ failure they've most likely got sepsis - an infection has taken hold - was he admitted for something else, got a hospital acquired infection, one of those multiple antibiotic resistance bacteria? Developed sepsis and died from this... the coof might have been a contributory factor, a passenger disease , who knows - but the headline is pushing the narrative that even a healthy person can get the coof and wind up in hospital and DIE , SO GET THE FUCKING VACCINE YOU IMBICILES! It's just so transparent it's unreal - but to the smoothbrain normies they will just swallow all this up and nod going 'yes, yes, must get the stabbing just in case ... think of that poor guy and his family oh and whilst we're at it make sure our 16 year old kid gets it too'
    36 points
  26. The worst thing about seeing that lad in hospital, he would have had about zero risk from covid, but now his health is ruined, possibly his life shortened. For what ? So that people who already are rich and powerful can have even more wealth that they will not even notice. Heads should roll for this, what sort of society harms its children knowingly ? Makes my blood boil.
    36 points
  27. and @wherebee Staff are not wanting the overtime mainly for stress reasons as I understand it. Currently,we're receiving 50% more calls than the busiest New Years Eve pre covid.Normally for NYE,we'll ahve extra crews on. BackgroundWe have four categories of job,1 to 4.1 being life threatening,4 being a medical minor or hospital transfer. In normal times,I'd take a patient into Resus maybe once every two shifts,maybe less-these are patients with acute life threatening issues.Everyone else either stays home or goes to normal A&E. Currently,we're going to Resus two times a shift(3 the other night).Maybe we're unlucky but with less crews on,it stands to reason.These Cat 1 jobs can be very stressful as people can be near death or sometimes-very rarely thankfully-pass away on the vehicle during transport.Sustaining a pt who's on the edge of life itself,can be very stressful. In between these jobs we're going to patients who have sometimes been waiting fiven to ten hours or more for us, and where the patient may have been on the floor for the whole ten hours. It goes without saying really,that if people are waiting 5-10 hours for a response,by the time we get there ,their condition can often have worsened considerably.I went to a patient the other night who had three chronic issues ongoing anyone of which would have justified me ringing Resus and alerting him in-three.Not just one. One shift last week,we were outside a care home about to alert a pt to Resus and there's a tap at the door and one of the patients in the care home has collapsed.I ditch my crew mate,go in and end up calling for back up crews to get this pt on a strecther and then alerted into Resus.The Dr at the hospital at the hospital was a bit teed off about the poor quality of my hand over but I pointed out that we'd got two pts in there and I was on my own.40 minutes later said Doctor still couldn't work out what was going on with the pt. It's not jsut amublance staff getting frazzled but A&E staff are getting it even worse than us. So that's the snapshot of my worklife at the minute.Hope it explains why people choose to stay home rather than pay 40% tax on their overtime payments-again credit to the thread and @DurhamBornin particular for running this theme.It's coming true.People are genuinely chinning off the overtime to avoid the stress. Young people getting smashed and enjoying life I'm really happy to see
    36 points
  28. Well that's done it 🙈 Just spent the last 2 hours explaining to my oh why I feel the need to buy and wear my first ever crucifix. It all came out, the "vaccinations", WEF, human augmentation, where I think the world is heading and the current war between good and evil that I sense is being played out on a grand scale. The good news is he listened to it all, is still talking to me and doesn't think I'm bonkers! I wish I didn't feel this way and really hope it's all rubbish, but when the evidence is out there, even on your own government's website it's hard to discount it. I think it's opened oh's eyes a bit more to what's going on. Sorry to unload on here but it's the only place that keeps me sane.
    35 points
  29. Parent "Hello, I'd like to offer some help transporting children to the school trip" Headteacher "WAIT! You might be a paedophile, you potentially dangerous weirdo.. I need to check you aren't a paedophile before I'll let you step foot into my setting and potentially interuppting with the children in my care. To check you aren't a paedophile, you'll have to do this, this, this and this, wait a few weeks, pay £x, THEN I might let you help" Pfizer "I want to stick my funny liquid into all of your children" Headteacher "Can you start today? I'll lock the disease-ridden dwarfs in the assembly hall. We're terrified of catching COVID from these dirty little fuckers. "
    35 points
  30. Well. Interesting start to the week today. Was summoned to a meeting with the head honcho. I knew exactly what it would be about as had received the usual weekly staff update email over the weekend which usually includes current government policies as well as the tiresome digs at 'those who have not yet had the jab'. My department are readying for a team building retreat over four days, taking place in a remote part of the country and travelling by coach. I've been told that due to me not being double jabbed, I cannot go. Reason being, that should I come into contact someone with a positive test, I would have to self isolate for ten days as opposed to the rest of my double jabbed colleagues who would not. I don't drive and logistically I cannot make my way back. Ironically, the person replacing me is double jabbed and is currently off sick with covid! WTF.
    35 points
  31. Today I received a letter informing me that I have an appointment next week for a pneumococcal vaccination to reduce my risk of pneumonia and meningitis. They want me to have two Covid vaxxes, a booster, a flu vax and now this one. Just fuck off. I’m never taking any of them.
    35 points
  32. It's funny how now that they're trying to convince the younger cohorts to get jabbed there are a lot of stories of the young getting sick from Covid. This is the smartest virus I've ever come across. For 18 months it concentrated on the older cohorts hardly affecting any young in the initial stages, now it has dispensed with the fogeys it has set its sights firmly on the young. It reminds me of the curfews imposed by some countries, somehow they knew this virus is smart enough to rest during the day and become active at night.
    35 points
  33. Exactly right and its why most economists are worth jack shit.The macro position relative to the Feds actions are most of the game for a roadmap,everything else is cross market work.In a modern economy liquidity is everything and you go from there.The problems are that as you mentioned the CBs have partnered with government to keep handing out freebies to half the population so they are dumb enough to allow the 1%,or even 0.1% to pillage everything.They got away with it during the great dis-inflation as technology and a billion chinese working for low wages meant they could keep increasing money supply,but not inflation.On the surface.Of course someone working in a factory should be able to buy around double with his labour than he can,but he doesnt know that.He doesnt really understand he is paying for the family next door to sit at home,the council to promote useless managers into none jobs,the state to employ more and more jobs. I repeat it,but i really want people to understand this.The game changes once inflation runs because they cant print into an inflation cycle,or more they cant print once its running hot.Then governments will face big structural deficits with the CB out of the bond markets.They might might be able to print a bit at the long end,but the short end will be closed to them. The .1% flooded the media with the stories and a narrative pushing down inflation loving areas.They have convinced a dumb public to buy the sunlit uplands and liquidity inspired forever growth while they will of been buying the oilies at multi generation lows. There was a mass are people appearing on this thread in March and April crying and scared and i got a bit sick of seeing people moaning they were down 10%/20% when they should of been buying steady across the sectors this thread had explained for over a year.I actually nearly thought it was time to leave the thread,but it has too many superb people adding to it for that. We have lots of work ahead,but i dont think we could of done much better than we have for people so far. For someone off their head on mushrooms half the time you have a superb knowledge of how the macro and CBs work
    35 points
  34. Re Breakdown in supply chains - I am finding this discussion interesting for numerous reasons. I work for a large clothing chain, for a while basic best selling items are not being delivered, whole product lines eg slippers no longer stocked. Customers aren't happy. I just tell customers factories abroad probably closed down due to Covid and may even have gone bust. We also have huge amounts of stock to clear, and no longer have huge deliveries coming in. Either we can't get stock or the Buyers have had their budgets cut as the company is being cautious. Probably both. I also worked for a clothing manufacturer in the past and know about components (fabric, thread, buttons, elastic, packaging etc) and how you can't make something if one key component isn't available. I have also heard about the shipping container issue. Re China Coal/Power shortages - Interesting if China's production is being affected. I have family in Australia and they are not happy about China's attitude towards Australia. China apparently owns a lot of Australia's natural resource companies - what were Australia thinking?????? My relatives also feel quite vulnerable to China invading. Their energy bills are also already insane compared to ours. Re Closure of Ferry Ports - I'm at home today, day off, just received a phone call from my husband - full on Panic mode. "Quick, get down the shops now and buy some food, the ferry ports are shut" "Oh, also stock up on loo roll". My response "Loo Roll isn't important, you can use a flannel to wipe your bum I then go and check our cupboards and am glad to see the huge sack of rice and and large pack of loo roll I bought on gut feeling a couple of weeks ago. We also have an allotment and during Lockdown 1, thinking ahead to Brexit and Covid this winter, I also sowed extra winter veg which will last until March. Lots of parsnios for carbohydrate and Xmas dinner. Re Stocking up - If I was going to recommend anything for people to stock up on it is shoes. I struggle to buy shoes, only 2 shops stock my size. Last week, I bought a duplicate pair of my everyday winter ankle boots, at sale price, to eventually replace my current ones. As I put them in my cupboard, I took a look at my other shoes and was glad to see several good practical shoes that will last for years. I nearly got rid of them recently, but kept them- that gut feeling again. I was also please to see my glamorous high heels and fabulous sparkling evening dress ready and waiting to enjoy the Roaring Twenties ahead. Re Rising Interest Rates. The main spanner in the works for me is I live in a block of flats and have been affected by the cladding issue. We had our EWS1 test carried out last week and are awaiting results. I'm not hopeful as we have some wooden panels, that are hopefully just decorative, and the balcony flooring is wooden slats. The buildings were deemed safe when we bought, but after Grenfell, the Govt changed the building regulations. Having read predictions of rising interest rates on this thread, I tried a few months ago to remortgage onto a 10 year low fixed rate. Due to not yet passing EWS1 the building society said no. Our mortgage is small, and steadily being paid off, so not much of an issue for us if rates are high in 7-10 years, but this is going to be major for the several million flat owners stuck in the same situation, who may be young and have large mortgages. I also know many of my neighbours won't have the cash to pay for the remedial work to the cladding. Being under 18m, we won't get any help from the Govt. As you can imagine, I was not happy to hear that holiday home owners all got 10K due to Covid. They should have got a mortgage holiday. Re Lessons learnt from this year: This thread is amazing - thank you to all contributors. DB has a crystal ball. Covid has had a major impact on mental health for many people. I have struggled as I am sure many people have. My sister - Covid anxiety due to underlying health issues. My husband is pretty balanced and sane and says he struggles a bit with not being able to plan holidays etc. He said he enjoyed being given permission by the Govt. to do nothing during Lockdown. Addictions - I am sure Lockdown has bought hidden addictions to the fore. My aunt in Oz (83) loves shopping and as the shops were shut had lots of time to think and unfortunately buried memories of an awful childhood surfaced. She realised she had used excessive shopping and constant busyness to supress these thoughts/feelings. Had to go to the doctors for anti-depressants. I'm sure she isn't the only one. Freedom as a core value - I have always valued freedom and this year it has become more evident it is one of my core values - freedom to travel, financial freedom, freedom from control and oppression, freedom of thought. Adaptability and Resillience- Being able to adapt is key. It often takes time. I have adapted to this year fairly well, had some stress due to Covid and the cladding issue , and now see 2020 as good mental training for the next 10 years. God help us all. The British Public - The vast majority were amazing in the early days when we didn't know how bad Covid could be, and quickly adapted. A minority acted appallingly eg giving supermarket workers a hard time. Keep yourself healthy. Keep your finances heathy and diversified. BBC are either incompetant or liars. During Lockdown, they said you could only go out for 1 hr a day for exercise. Not true. The Govt sent a letter to all households, there was no time limit. I wrote and complained to the BBC, no reply.
    35 points
  35. Yet another DOSBODS prediction coming true. I thought they'd give up at some point, but no, they want 100%. The irony is all those BBC watching, Guardian reading, North London remainer types who always bang on about equality are now happy to promote a witch-hunt against a minority of people who are not 'anti-vax', evil or criminal but simply would rather not have a particular medical procedure at this point in time. I get a few likes on here for some of my attempts at humour, but actually I'm carrying a level of anger and resentment which is starting to worry me. Every other minority group in society has its voice and its protectors, but we're on our own.
    34 points
  36. You sound defeatist. I will never have it. They would have to send round armed goons to physically strap me down and force it into me. Will it come to that? I doubt it. And the more of us who simply refuse, the harder it is for them to claim sufficient uptake to justify their authoritarian wet dream policies like biometric IDs etc.
    34 points
  37. I can't believe how many people are even thinking about having any of these "vaccines". It's so obviously a bad idea, here's a short article making that point : "5 Questions To Ask Your Friends Who Plan To Get The Covid Vaccine By Kit Knightly Many of us have friends or family who plan on getting the vaccine. Maybe they truly believe they are in danger. Maybe they think it’s better safe than sorry. Maybe they just want to be able to go to the pub again. If you know someone who is planning on getting vaccinated against Covid19, ask them these five questions. Make sure they understand exactly what they’re asking for. 1. Did You Know That We Have Never Successfully Vaccinated Against Any Coronavirus? No successful vaccine against a coronavirus has ever been developed. Scientists have been trying to develop a SARS and MERS vaccine for years, with nothing to show for it. In fact, some of the failed SARS vaccines actually caused hypersensitivity to the SARS virus. Meaning that vaccinated mice could potentially get the disease more severely than unvaccinated mice. 2. Did You Know It Usually Takes 5-10 Years To Fully Develop A Vaccine? Vaccine development is a slow, laborious process. Usually, from development through testing and finally being approved for public use takes many years. The various vaccines for Covid have all been developed and approved in less than a year. While the media are quick to offer a TON of “explainer” guides, which cite “foresight, hard work and luck” as the reasons we got a Covid vaccine so quickly “without cutting corners”, they all leave out key information. Namely, that none of the vaccines have yet been subject to proper trials. Many of them skipped early-stage trials entirely, and the late stage human trials have either not been peer reviewed, have not released their data, will not finish until 2023 or were abandoned after “severe adverse effects”. 3. Did You Know That The Covid “Vaccine” Is Based On New Technology, Which Has Never Been Approved For Use On Humans Before? While traditional vaccines work by exposing the body to a weakened strain of the microorganism responsible for causing the disease, these new Covid vaccines are mRNA vaccines. mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) vaccines theoretically work by injecting viral mRNA into the body, where it replicates inside your cells and encourages your body to recognise, and make antigens for, the “spike proteins” of the virus. They have been the subject of research since the 1990s, but before 2020 no mRNA vaccine was ever approved for use. 4. Did You Know That The Pharmaceutical Companies Can’t Be Sued If The Vaccine Hurts Or Kills Someone? Back in the Spring of 2020 many governments around the world granted vaccine manufacturers immunity to civil liability, either by invoking existing legislation or writing new laws. The USA’s Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness Act (PREP) grants immunity until at least 2024. The EU’s product licensing law does the same, and there are reports of confidential liability clauses in the contracts the EU signed with vaccine manufacturers. The UK went even further, granting permanent legal indemnity to the government, and any employees thereof, for any harm done when a patient is being treated for Covid19 or “suspected Covid19”. 5. Did You Know 99.8% Of People Survive Covid19? The case-fatality ratio of Sars-Cov-2 infection has been a bone of contention for months, but it is certainly much lower than all the initial models predicted. It was originally massively inflated, with the WHO using a figure of 3.4%. Subsequent studies have found it to be much lower, in some cases even lower than 0.1%. A report published in October in the WHO’s own research bulletin finding a CFR of 0.23% “or possibly considerably lower”. Meaning, even according to the WHO, at least 99.77% of people infected with the virus will survive. * Ask your friends these questions. Give them detailed answers. It is a rushed and untested vaccine, made using unprecedented technology, with no legal recourse should it do you harm, to treat a virus 99.8% of people will survive. So the question that really matters is: Do you really want, or need, to take that risk?" from : https://www.globalresearch.ca/5-questions-to-ask-your-friends-who-plan-to-get-the-covid-vaccine/5737747
    34 points
  38. These people are mental. When I was a teenager I had meningitis. Aside from it being 50/50 whether I came out the other side, I also developed pericarditis. It's a very rare side effect apparently as the previous similar case the specialist could remember was about 20 years before. I had follow up appointments checking my heart for 3 years afterwards until they were happy that the scarring wasn't going to cause long term issues. Pericarditis and worse myocarditis should have seen these experimental trials halted immediately. These are serious issues and in the worst cases, life limiting conditions. Anybody who thinks that they would do the same again is either woefully misinformed about their situation or completely mental.
    34 points
  39. Karen: “are you vaxxed?” Me: “Do you like anal?” Karen: “Excuse me!?” Me: “oh sorry I thought we were asking each other personal questions that were none of our fucking business”
    34 points
  40. David Hunter rough transcript: DH: Last March S&P was 2200 and I called for new highs: now 4200+. Length of time taking gold to re-emerge from consolidation has been longer than expected, but markets don't always do what we want. Expect a spectacular melt-up into Q2. This is due to liquidity injection, and fiscal stimulus. Investors have remained relatively restrained, with a wall of worry. Now see more signs that people are believers, but still some healthy scepticism, with people calling for bigger corrections than we have had. Market has been self-correcting on the way up. At true top, we will have many more true believers, saying "this is the start". I'm looking for equity & commodity markets to make new highs. Oil correction is not yet done, but will come out of that and reach $75 by this summer. Gold & silver will reach new highs (all time high in gold). Bonds can rally. In a global bust, treasuries will make new highs. I'm expecting a bear market in stocks: 60-75% bear market, possibility of 80%, that will be the worst in post-war history. Inflation will get a lot higher in next 6 months, and fed will have trouble ignoring it. Last July, fed felt comfortable pulling several hundred billion out of the system. That was with no inflation. They could now pull 0.5 to 1 trillion out of the system. System is fragile: needs new liquidity to keep it coming. Q: Why is the leverage able to speed things up? DH: leverage is both debt and derivatives (people often just think about debt). From late 80s, derivatives really started growing, and is much bigger now than 2008/9 collapse. Tail wagging the dog. Derivatives can really speed up things. This can push the markets. View on inflation/deflation cycle: Have not had a widespread deflationary downturn since 1930s. We are very late in the cycle that started 2009 (global bust will be the end of it). A year ago, inflation close to zero could be 3-4% this year. Still relatively low this late in the cycle. If they have to tighten because of overheating, they could tip into negative if policy mistake leading to downturn. We are not starting this downturn with high inflation of 7-8%. A lot of current inflation is commodity inflation, which can fall in a hurry as demand drops. So many people worried about inflation this year (including DH), but we are close, in a longer perspective, to a deflation ... so having fed deal with a breakout of inflation on the eve of what could be a deflation, makes it a very complex situation of a central bank to handle, and they may not be up to it: could slip quickly into deflation if policy mistakes are made. Things could happen quickly. No precedent post WWII, and central bankers rely on precedent. Downturn before year end, and could slip into deflation. Will be contained within a year, as will the deflation. Call it bust, not depression, because will be short-lived, but will have some of the characteristics and damage of depression, because of involuntary debt liquidation. Europe more precarious than US. Could be largest financial crisis (not largest downturn) in history, because of mass of leverage. Between Q4 2021 and middle 2022 worse than DH has seen in 48 years. Don't expect to see inflation and deflation in different parts of the economy, because the bust will be quick. Hard to know if everything will deflate. Not like the 30's: it will be fast. Look at second quarter swoon 2020: it was scary. Things can go from seemingly good to bad in a hurry. Primary forecast is most assets will deflate. Even if they were quick to turn the money spigots on, it would be 9 months before it impacts the economy, and maybe another 18 months before it impacts inflation in a big way. A few months of missteps could feel like an eternity. Will we see yield curve control? DH doesn't think so: YCC on a longer-term basis is a myth because inflation will force their hand. On a short term, they may try. Rates are going to be dropping because of the bust, and after, rates won't be an issue. Lets suppose the bust starts end of this year and carries on at least first part of next year, maybe all of 2022. You are looking at 2024 before you have another inflation concern like now where it's pushing above 4%. It will take several months to a year coming out of deflation before it goes positive, then you will be low single digits for a while. Real inflation story is mid-decade: starting 2024, by 2025-2026, that's when you start to push high single digit to double digit inflation. Having lived though Volker era, the only way to control inflation is to pour more fuel on the fire by pouring in money. That leads to more inflation. Large parts of the economy are interest-rate sensitive: financing and home-buying, so the fed worries about that, rather than amount of money. Dollar: Last time talked had an 85 DXY target. It got down to 89 then spent most of the year going back to 93-94. We have rolled over again. I have lower target to maybe 82. Thinks we have finished the upward consolidation. Euro looks like it will get to $1.30. CAD will get $0.90. AUS may get to $0.95. That will help fuel inflation. That move on dollar will be between now and early Sept (maybe sooner). Move to 85 and maybe 82 happens in matter of months. Q: Do you have end of Q2 time-line for the bust to start? Not the bust: the bust is a H2 event, probably end of year. The bear market refers to the market. The bust refers to the economy. Stock market leads by several months. Stock market may top this quarter. That top may have a secondary rally. Could be mid Q3 before you see market unwinding, but could unwind quickly. Window for top is end May to early July. Top then stretches out into much of Q3. Bust may not start till late 2021. If the market unwinds more quickly, bust would be late Q3, early Q4 event. The bear market will be earlier. Q: What happens to metals and miners? DH: Definitely correct in the bear market, but probably much less than the equity markets do. The fed will be coming back in with both feet, easing aggressively. Timing and gold and silver going back up will come before the stock market comes back up. Could have 30% pullback in metals, more in silver. Forecast for gold is $2500 for next several months. Probably a Q3 top. If you get a 30% move down from there, you're basically back here. Silver 45-50. Let's say 35% to 40% move back, again you're back here. There's not a lot of downside from here. You may re-test this during the bust. A couple of years ago, I thought gold could see $500 or $800 in the bust, but I'm not there now. It's possible it could get to $1000, but I doubt it. The many months spent in $1700 to $1800 area may serve at the floor. Q: Why have real rates become disconnected from gold? Using CPI, real rates are rising, but looking at actual inflation, CPI is not measuring that accurately. Realistic inflation is not 1.5% to 2% - it's a lot higher than that over last few months. Nominal rates have risen: that didn't surprise me, but real rates haven't. I'm calling for 1.20% 10Y, in which case real rates are dropping. Then calling 2.5% 10Y as inflation begins to take off, but even then, inflation will be higher. Hard to see a scenario between now and early Sept where real rates rise: they will be falling even as nominal rates are going up. Q: What are the biggest bubbles which will suffer in the bust? Certainly the equity market. We are coming to a secular peak for a run starting in 1982 (or 1974). We are in the parabolic phase, which is rare. Equities are the prime asset that will be hit hard. Also junk bonds, and toa lesser extent, real estate. RE is funny: we may be making a secular top, but don't know how fatst & hard thy will fall. We were hit hard in 2008/9, and we don't have the same subprime issues (but have others). Canada (and Aus?) are the markets which will fall hardest: they are where the US was in 2008/9. US housing will be hit hard, but I doubt it will be 2008/9 hard. Commodities: We are in a super-cycle between 2 depressions. 1930's was the last depression. 2030s will be the next, so we have one more recovery to get us to the end of the super-cycle. By the end of the super-cycle, commodities are in for a huge run in post-bust era. It's not a straight line. The run this year has been great, and a lot of analysts are calling for a huge run from here. But, remember: that bust will interrupt the commodities cycle (i.e. the run to the end of the decade): it's like looking from the south rim of the grand canyon to the north. Sure it looks like a straight line, but there is a huge canyon in between. Thinking you can buy commodities today and they will go right on through... But beginning latter part of 2022 to the end of the decade, commodities will have a run like they have never had in history. Oil could get to $200, gold to $10000+, silver to $300+, and the pluses may make the number look silly low. Copper could go up 7-, 8-, 10-fold. The big moves coming in the next cycle are because of the money being put out. Equities will make a secular top, meaning recovery in equities after the bust won't come close. Maybe it's 4700 for S&P at the top (or 5000 if it goes parabolic). Next cycle, if you have 80% drop and get to 1000, you could triple or quadruple from that, and still not get close to the top we have coming soon. That secular top might not be tested for decades. (2 or maybe many more). Gold and silver, next cycle, go on to much much much higher highers. Social media stocks and FAANGS and growth stocks in general will be dealing with headwind of inflation and rates. Looking at rates for 10 year, maybe 0% at top of the bond market in the bust to 15% by the end of the decade. For index funds, that rise from 0% to 15% will have a big impact on P/E multiples, so will be very hard for indexes to do well next cycle. Q: How important is the oil price in the economy, and do you use it as a tool to analyse other markets? DH: I look at it, but it's not a primary driver. We have had O&G prices under control. Longer term, it's going to be a big factor, though. We are going to have an industrially-led cycle. Consumers will be digging themselves out from a horrendous bust (and are not strong going into it), then add on what happens if prices are $300+, gasoline will be easily double-digit. Consumer will have a problem even if wages break out. They will be following, nor leading. Q: Lots of analysts are talking about currency resets. What is your view on crypto, digital currencies? DH: I'm not big on currency reset. If we are going to have a reset, I think it will be late in the decade. I don't see anything poised to take over in next 5 years. Dollar will be in trouble on that horizon. We have talked about dollar going to low 80s (DXY), then it will go to 120 in the depths of the bust, as everyone runs to it. Then, starting from that dollar high, I expect a long-term erosion to the end of the decade: it could be less than 50 cents. But, it won't be replaced as a reserve currency until much later in teh decade. We talked about high inflation at 15 - 20%, interest rates at 15%, and short rates at 20%. That takes all the central banks out of the game. That's why I was bullish last March: the fed was not out of bullets. The opposite end with high rates and inflation, they can't pour fuel on the fire, because it just exacerbates what they're trying to fix. End of the decade the fed cannot intervene, and that's when you can get the collapse of the system (the "Ponzi scheme" that has built up over 50 years). What comes out of that is probably a totalitarian response. That will be the resent, and you can't plan for it, you can design any currency you want. Q: tell us about contrarianism. DH: In the 70's it was a very rare thing. Everyone today wants to be a contrarian, but it's just a psychological truth that the vast majority of people are not comfortable being outside the crowd, with conviction (actions not words). Computers have made it worse, as everyone is a "relative strength technician". Q about sentiment for miners. DH: People become too myopic. You need to step back and broaden out the time horizon, even just a small amount sometimes. I love the gold chart and the silver chart. They are in flag formation, and when they break out they are going to do that vertically. Q on how to decide when to sell? DH: Sentiment drives me more than anything, particularly if it is at an extreme in either direction. Fundamentals and macro also matter to me. It's a mix of all of them. Q: can you give us some price targets towards the end of Q2 2020? DH: S&P 4700 (but won't be surprised if that's too conservative). DOW 38000. NASDAQ 17000. 10 Year 1.20% this quarter, then start pushing back up to 2.5%. 30 year 1.95% then pushing back to 3%. Gold $2500 at top (but might push beyond that). Silver $45 to $50. Longer term, gold & silver have a lot of upside, but it's not going to be a straight line. Oil probably down to low $50's, but the jury's out. It's possible we have had our consolidation in oil and it starts running again, but more likely it gets to $50-$54, before it makes another run at $75, and then down to sub $20 in the bust, maybe $10 again, before it starts the big move up coming out of the bust. GDX I have raised my target from $55 to $60. GDXJ $100. SIL probably $75. SILJ I have said $30, but now $35, and that may be low, if silver goes to $45 or $50. I think we are very close: we are starting to see the downtrend being broken, and I think gold and silver will start acting better as we move through this quarter. Q: anything else you would like to mention? DH: Junk bond area is very frothy, because of these low yields we have had, that really reached out on the risk curve to get income, and I would cation people that equities are probably number one to be hit in the bust, but junk bonds are probably right behind them. They are the exact definition of what leverage means. Also, if we get oil back from $75 to $10, then as you know there is a lot of leverage in the shale oil area that got bailed out in March, but I think that is going to have real problems in the bust, and won't be bailed out.
    34 points
  41. I've just been knocked back from a nice little job GP home visits because I haven't had the 'clot shot'.Fair enough.Reason given that I won't be able to visit care homes from November. Looking forward to seeing how the ambulance service deals with this.Looks like we could be losing some NHS frontline staff soon as I'd rather get sacked than take the vaccine 1) because I don't think they've been honest about it's long term safety 2) because the IFR for covid isn't too dissimailar to the IFR for flu 3) because we all reach a point in life where we have to make a stand and I'm dead against govts mandating medications to populations The point I'm making is that if GP's go to a 3 day week,then I'm not sure where the spare supply will come from to cover the gaps. The NHS is facing being overrun this winter due to the care home collapse which was/is totally avoidable. Must say,I genuinely think this govt will go down in history as one of teh msot incompetent ever.
    33 points
  42. Anecdotal. Spoke with neighbour yesterday. Had to take her husband to a&e and sat in the waiting area for 5 hours. Said it was 'pandemonium' but not with covid. Ambulance after Ambulance coming in, not trauma injuries but heart conditions and strokes.
    33 points
  43. Very few, actually. Sure, there are examples -- and it looks like the media spends all its time trying to find them so that they can put them on the front page. There are also plenty of otherwise healthy people becoming ill with the vaccines -- few of which are recognised as such, and very few of which are put on the front page. And that's just the short term effects.
    33 points
  44. There was never any lockdown. There was just middle-class people hiding while working-class people brought them things.
    33 points
  45. Yes ex Grenadier. In Iraq I reminded him of our first meeting when he was 6 years old with his Mum at Windsor Castle. I was on Guard away from the public when they both came over to me. After presenting arms Diana explained to Harry what I do etc. She told him we are not allowed to talk. While her attention drifted and her eyes were off me I pulled a tongue and smiled at Harry. He was wide eyed! Pulling his Mums arm explaining to her what I had just done. She laughed and said ‘don’t be silly Harry’. She then looked at me and gave me a knowing smile and then off they went with Harry looking back at me. Then I bumped into him while private security in Iraq many years later. I told him the story and he burst out laughing saying he remembered it and how no one believed him! We ended up sharing a bunker for 24hrs as it was raining mortars and rockets so no movements. We had a really good chat and you could tell he hated life in the family. Again I saw him with the Invictus games stuff and he even remembered me and our previous meetings. Obviously I won’t go into details though.
    33 points
  46. I have no wish to denigrate your wife's experience.ICU's are busy at the minute for a number of reasons.Not least covid but also the fact that our govt knew the winter repsiratory season would be upon us now and appear to have made limited preparations. I work as a Paramedic and my experience is more varied.I work very closely at times with people who are covid +ve,with pretty minimal PPE-just pointing out I have skin in the game-and whilst covid is a lot worse than the average flu season over the last five years,in terms of all cause mortality,we've lived through much worse years in terms of deaths per 1000 in the last twenty. The problem is that clinicians mainly see what they see.Your wife will be seeing staff shortages,bed shortages,increased deaths and that would reflect her and her colleagues reality.I work pre hospitally and so would see the problems that arise from GP's not physically seeing pts,the rise and rise of mental health issues/effects of prolonged isolation. My biggest issue with all that's written about covid is exactly that.It's all about covid.In my opinion we should be looking at the health of a nation as a whole before committing to extremes of responses.Our govt,along with many others,have merely copied the next country up the line from China at the top(although there are exceptions). For me,I'm far more worried about my kids mental health and their economic/societal future than I am about my own covid risk-we all have our frailties.My mother,who has a few comorbidities and is at an age where she's predisposed to suffer with covid,is far more concerned about the my kids generation than she is about her own. These are just my opinions-dyor etc. Decl-I am a lockdown sceptic.I,(along with a small number of other clincians and non clincians),believe that there's little correlation to be found between lockdowns and the spread of covid.I also think the costs of the lockdown will far outwigh the benefits in a number of ways.
    33 points
  47. This money pump into the NHS shows how absolutely incompetent our establishment is as it's just the same old for the same old problems. No new path, no new ideas, just more of what has proven not to work. More salaries, more waste. Told the BMA to authorise more doctors? No. More medical places? No. Cancelling tuition fees for nurses? No. No more nursing degree? No. New contracts? No. Spending reviews? No. Lifting capacity constraints? No. And so on and on. They have no idea how to run anything and just throw our hard earnt and scarce money at things to tick boxes. They would never rise above filing clerk in a commercial setting. They are the most wasteful of a long line of wasters. And it's not just the NHS, it's endemic throughout. It is now my patriotic duty not to contribute to this pathetic s-show as best I legally can. These people, polos and administrators, need to go.
    32 points
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