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This is the absolute fucking madness of our immigration policy, only 15% working. 600k students and their families who never went back. We're dead in the water, another few years of this and public sector pensions and benefits will be the least of our problems. As Enoch said, those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad. He wasn't wrong.

Bought more BATS for longterm holding

Notice how they do zero cross market work on it.That is why they keep failing so badly.£25 billion increase in state borrowing to re-open the Durham Coal field is different to £25billion to fund the 80% of muslims who dont work. These idiots dont use any multipliers,they simply think x increase creates x amount of demand.Worthless in a cost push cycle. The economy is 24% smaller than it needs to be compared to the demands on it (mostly from the state) on my numbers. Welfare has a 3.9 x negative multiplier on my numbers from here ie each increase destroys 3.9x the productive power of the economy,they think it INCREASES it. Multipliers are critical,and you have to use the trend and some gut instinct.They dont teach that on uni economics courses.

Pretty much just life before welfare.In China and Asia women still get welfare from men,its just they get to shag them for the money.In the west men have it taken in tax and given to women so they dont have to shag them.In my crazy head its one of the reasons i used to shag single mothers on bennies,i wanted my tax back .As always its the macro driving the economy and society,just some lags are short,some very long.Those young guys eating pizza playing on their consoles in their mothers bedroom are there due to welfare. A low amount of welfare is very good for economies,it oils things,but it should always be below 50% of the minimum wage.The huge problem with the UK is welfare is set up to reward each bad choice.Another kid,more welfare,get fat and ill,more welfare,dont save,more welfare etc etc. The UK is heading for collapse due to it and state worker pensions,yet if both were cut in half we would be in a decent place.Its those two inflation linked bombs crushing everthing else.

What's really interesting about this is that Putin took the head of the Russian Central Bank with him and Kadyrov. They're basically telegraphing that there's a major economic and military realignment happening with the BRICS and associate nations and that it's gathering pace. Meanwhile Ukrainian mortar and artillery teams are rationed to less than ten rounds a day because they west have destroyed their own manufacturing base. The footage of the "major" American artillery shell production facility the other day was amazing. Not a man there under 50, machinery all older than them in what looked like an old farm shed. 99% of westerners have zero fucking idea of the real state of our civilisation. We've been stood on the shoulders of giants (our ancestors) for decades now, and that dividend is almost used up. Still blows my mind that us weirdos and oddballs on this forum spotted it before almost every "expert" on the planet.

Two,my partner does it on her house,but lives with me,so she is never there,BUT she goes over and in every week.She keeps the small 3rd bedroom hers with clothes etc in.She charges £430 x 2 so £860 a month,bills are £370 so she is making the same as if rented out,but no tax and any bullshit i throw them out that day and change the locks.Its a good deal for them though as well.£430 all bills included,nice house,only two in it,and we never ever throw anyone out who is fine.If i was on my arse i would love the deal,you can use it to get back on your feet.We have only had two bad ones.One was a nightmare but my mate from Boro removed him,his nickname is "The Viking" so as you can imagine it was brutal and quick.I bought him and his lass a pram back in the day,early 90s when he came out of jail and had nowt,baby due.One thing i have learned in life,some things are never forgot when people are on their arse.

My partner bought them,but like @Harley says a knife sharpener is key as well.My partner had an amazing figure when i met her 13 years ago,but she got big,14st big,shit carbs mostly.Started her on steaks,big burgers,sausages,bacon etc,cut the carbs right down (she does around 60 to 80 a day,im 80 to 120 now) and she is down to 12s7lb now .The loss has slowed,but still falling nicely.In clothes she looks sexy again .She said i was crazy the week i started her on the above "how can you lose weight eating burgers?",now she is 100% bought in to the point she comes in with nearly all low carb food.She also mentions the women at work who are huge and getting fatter and what they eat,huge amounts of shit carbs. For me,im feeling fitter than i did 25 years ago.Just 6 months in to this journey.Dosbods contains life changing info given freely by some of lifes best characters.Its changed my last third of life health wise,thats for sure.

Ahh bollocks. Sold my entire gold and junior gold fund holdings (25k), another 10k in bat all in my sipp that Im taking this year. Sold the pharma stuff as well. So much for cashing in, getting the 4% on the cash and then taking it out later in the year. Its not that my sipp is now overweight BAT, its positively obese. In fact my sipp looks like a chain smoking, overweight V8 driver who sits on their phone all day but with a tiny life insurance policy. This is obviously not investment advice.

Who the fuck writes this clowns speeches? Talking about instructing his shadow cabinet to treat every pound as if it's someone else money, "Because it is". He literally spent 2 grand a week on a chauffeur driven car when he was DPP and claimed it back on expenses. Talk about pissing down my leg and telling me it's raining.

There was an interesting discussion on BFM Radio this morning. This is an economy channel and BFM is on the woker side of politics. The debate, between some economists was about the minimum wage in France. (SMIC). Currently at 1 709,28 € per month and, unlike everyone else, indexed with inflation. There is also the RSA, 607,75 € per month. A kind of universal benefit but it is a gateway to state housing, childcare, free health care and a pension of around 950 € / month at 63 without ever having paid a penny in taxes. Many immigrants live quite nicely of this without troubling themselves with actually, like, you know, working. First thing I didn't realise is that there are a lot of people paid less than the SMIC as their industry sector signed an agreement on wages and their salaries have now been overtaken by the SMIC. At the level of the SMIC employers don't pay payroll taxes, I think there is just a contribution for health care. Payroll taxes are extremely high in France, I'd have to check my pay slips but about half my salary is deducted by my employer in social charges. If an employer pays SMIC + 1 euro they suddenly have to find around 450 euros of extra payroll taxes. So it is very hard to get paid more than the SMIC, it is both a minimum and maximum for many people. The economists made the point that France has become a low skilled economy. The jobs that are available are not competitive at more than the SMIC, the economy has adapted to the minimum wage. Employment has gone to where there are subsidies and has shrunk from where there are high taxes (skilled jobs). France had a similar GDP per capital to Switzerland in the 1970s. It is now half of Switzerland. Back in the seventies a middle earner, say a teacher, could own their home outright and have maybe a flat in the Alps and one at the seaside and retire at 55! Currently employers are crying out for more unskilled labour and want up to 1 million illegals currently in France to be given work permits. This would suck more money out of the higher skilled sector; the country is in a kind of viscous circle of low wage jobs creating more low wage jobs and destroying the middle classes and skilled labour through increasing taxes. I thought this might have echoes in the British economy.

The Dosbodders 'Guide to tax', and how to pay as little as possible? [as always not financial advice, DYOR] The EVIDENCE [three greatest revenue taxes 05.28-05.48]: Total tax = £910B 1. Income Tax = £248B 2. National Insurance = £175B 3. VAT = £157B Tax from these three equate for 63.7% [£580B/£910B] The SOLUTION [three greatest opportunities to reduce these] 1. Get as much of your wealth in Tax Free vehicles such as ISA's. Also reduce your hours OR retire earlier rather than later; with IT being frozen you are paying proportionally more IT as time goes...ask yourself "Do I really need/benefit fully from those extra working years from 55-65 in the same way as working from 25-55?". Also, drawn down your pension earlier to get into tax efficient savings? 2. Give up work earlier rather than later; it's the only way to avoid NI. 3. By all means spend your money BUT buy secondhand/nearly new from places such as EBay/Facebook Market place, where a) the initial hit of VAT has been taken by the person selling, and b) where these sales sites [The Private Sellers] don't charge VAT. Finally considering purchases [see 10.08-11.48], buy as inexpensive/smallest property that fulfills your needs OR rent, as being a home owner you are a) a 'sitting duck' for any government taxation policy, and b) cannot avoid it easily/quickly. 'Scratch out' 1 and 2, and half 3, and you will reduce your personal taxation from 63.7% to 8.6% [£157B/£910B = 17.2%..halved = 8.6%]....now wouldn't that feel nice?

Crikey, that was a big divi from Ashmore today.

Apropos my post yesterday regarding the America artillery production facility. Keep in mind that this is ONE Russian production facility producing more artillery shells than the whole of NATO. Not just America, every single NATO nation combined. And they have 8 more of them. For context, America's biggest plant in Pennsylvania can only produce 80k rounds a year. We'd run out of ammunition in about a month in a conventional war. Nothing more perfectly sums up the hubris of the West.

"Accidentally"

I have added some,couldnt resist.Just a new CEO cleaning up the none cash "goodwill" rubbish.The interesting bit in the statement is this "We continue to seek and evaluate all opportunities to enhance balance sheet flexibility, including disposals and the exit of non-strategic markets. We remain committed to a progressive dividend, and once the middle of our leverage range is reached, we will evaluate all opportunities to return excess cash to our shareholders" It could be they are considering selling the Indian share holdings,that ,i think would cover half the debt or more.Its not any easy stake to sell,and they always kept it as a route to get their new oral products into India in the future,but they might be thinking sell it and launch 5% share buy backs a year every year instead.Debt is 2.7x they could go to under 2x and launch buy backs if they sold India.

I've said before and I'll say it again the jewel in Vodafones crown is that african payments business.It grew vol by 25% in 22/23. We wont get a proper update till april 24 but in a world where building physical netwroks is getting increasingly expensive,prohibitive even,then the ability to build the infrastructre to connect peopesla nd countries for fraction of the price, in the one continetn blessed with all the commodities you could need,is a going to be worth soemthing. Bit like alexco though,I think someone will buy them and split them up at this price,which would be an absolute shame,but standard for the absolute dearth of political talent we have in Cronyminster. from sept 22 but the points remain https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-future-of-payments-in-africa Africa has been no exception. In 2020, Africa’s e-payments industry, across domestic and cross-border payments, generated approxi­mately $24 billion in revenues, of which about $15 billion was domestic electronic payments. The domestic electronic-payments revenue of $15 billion was generated from 47 billion individual trans­actions totaling just over $800 billion of transaction values.6 However, on average, only 5 to 7 percent of all payment transactions in Africa were made via electronic or digital channels, compared with 50 percent or more in Turkey, for instance. Young city dwellers and strong economic fundamentals Young, urbanized consumers and strong economic fundamentals are providing fertile ground for growth. Africa has the fastest population growth rate in the world, averaging 2.7 percent per year, compared with a global average of 1 percent, and the youngest median age, 20 years.11 Most of these young people will likely live in cities by 2045.12 A young, urban population provides a ready market for e-payments, and growth already is resulting from shifts in how people transport themselves (e-hailing services), consume entertainment (streaming services), and shop (e-commerce). Opportunities for telecom companies Because of their large customer bases, agent networks, and unique data, telecom companies have a natural advantage in the payments space. We see four potential opportunities: Reposition proprietary distribution networks as market platforms. Accelerate the pace of investments in innovation, including enhancement of current offerings, improved user experience, and migration of large offline customer bases to online and digital channels. Monetize data. Build cross-border remittances plays and partnerships. Because of their large customer bases, agent networks, and unique data, telecom companies have a natural advantage in the payments space. Repositioning proprietary distribution networks as market platforms. Telecom companies could reposition proprietary distribution and sales channels as market platforms to capture additional oppor­tunities. Their extensive networks of agents have evolved mostly from pure airtime sales agents to mobile-money agents and could be transformed into broader distribution platforms that expand and aggregate their offering by including other players, such as banks and fintechs. Telecom companies risk losing out if their significant distribution networks remain closed off to other players, who are likely to build alternative networks. We have already seen this play out in Senegal, where Wave has built an agent network with wide coverage.27 In Egypt, Vodafone, the leading telecom company, is partnering with independent agent networks that are already large and dominant to enable its wallet and financial-services offerings.28 Accelerating the pace of innovation. Telecom companies could convert more of their passive customer base into an active transacting base at scale by accelerating the pace of digitization, improving the user experience, and enhancing their offerings. Many African players already have proprietary wallets built primarily to run on offline channels and older devices offering basic services such as transfers and bill payments. While these will continue to be relevant, they are unlikely to grow as fast as online channels, smarter devices, and offer­ings that respond to shifts in consumer behavior.

more javier exactly as per thread thesis @Cattle Prod

Don't even try to talk sense into him when he talks complete shit like that, it's just another rather embarrasing signature "look at me" brag. If you want to find it a bit more amusing imagine it's this fella saying it:

Speaking of the Energy Economy I have composted a graph of something I have been meaning to look at for ages. Generating Capacity / Demand and Population for the UK since 1970. Column E (not shown in graph) is kW per Person this peaked in 2002 at 1.02kW per person per hour and has dropped to 0.72kW last year (2022).

who knows? RR have announced they are working with Westinghouse on the fuel design. A very good thing, you’d think. They want a proven design. The RR SMR is going to look similar (design-wise) to the Westinghouse AP600. 470MW vs 600 MW. But no one ordered the AP600, as it was too small. Westinghouse scaled up the design to be the AP1000, which Poland is now going with, to get better economies of scale. i.e. small PWRs are more expensive. (lots of steel used per MW.) How many would the UK have to order to get economies of manufacturing scale? 50? 100? NuScale’s design is simply too small. RR may have got it right. ….. I only have questions, no answers.

Sisters, brothers, family, cuckhold themes as well as slipping in cross sexuality vids on the mainstream site. Young men have it blasted from all directions. Nights out and approaching women with a bit of Dutch courage is being confined to history. They’ve been gaslighted to be petrified that if they did that, they may be labeled as misogynistic or a creep. It now all takes place on Tinder, Insta or Snap, where the average young guy would have to deal with constant rejection (swiping left etc) and the ugly fatties and trogs uses myriads of filters in disillusion they can get a good looking top tier male earning £250k+. After all that’s why the media is telling them. No wonder zoomers are confused, have low self esteem and are turning into twinks. I’ve never known so many young 20 year old men that have never had a girlfriend.

A business which is effectively a monopoly should have no excuse to be in this situation. Sadly it seems privatisation allowed American vultures to extract and plunder our national companies and then leave the carcass for the public to sort out.

6th by the made up measure that is GDP. 21st on GDP per Captia. It feels like we'd be much lower by any non-GDP measure you might want to look at.

My partner is in it,she is on £30k and gets around £12 a week pension for every year she does roughly,she has 13 in there so far so about £12k a year on her wage,about 37%. The the way where you get CPI increases on past years instead of final salary means its costing them even more as wages went up less than inflation.My problem with public sector pensions,is not how generous they are,its the fact it means the very people making the crazy policy dont suffer from it,they just steal from everyone else.Those pensions need ending,and it would go a long way to solving our problems.

Im off out all day Saturday with my son and his workmates for their xmas night out,his mates always invite me .I will report on the state of the general population,but i noticed last weekend when out around here just how overweight most people are now.Very few people are in good shape.Most of the younger guys are laughable ,they just look like saggy bags of shit,even my unhealthy mates were a lot fitter at that age,i guess from manual factory jobs.The whole of society just seems to put zero effort into anything.Then again,like everything in life,that makes it easier for anyone who does put the effort in to stand out. I think the big one for younger lads is they get little chance with the women unless they are in the top 20% so they just become simps and friend zoned.Last year when i went with my son and mates 3 women were sat next to us,i just mentioned to them how lovely they all looked and got chatting.One of the lads said how did you do that?,just say that to strangers,?,,turned out he had never once spoke to a woman he had never met first.Incredible.Lazy ,unfit and scared.How did we end up with such a huge chunk of the male population like that?

The fundamental flaw in his argument is he totally ignores whether the government spending is necessary. We all agree some is. I do not believe the government should spend on all the activities that they currently undertake. He starts with the predicate that government spending is fixed. It isn't we can give example after example of uneccessary and wasteful spending. Paying people not to work by locking us down! Paying for immigrants accommodation and living expenses whilst we pay lawyers to argue whether they are deserving enough to stay! Paying for weaponry to interfere in the disputes of other countries! for starters.

I have done it .At 49.I have even found a way to get the council tax back ,Carers Allowance.My council tax is £1100,CA is £4000,so i have told my dad to stay alive another 7 years,that should cover the next 30ish years council tax.I buy almost everything from Ebay and i now avoid takeaways etc.I could downsize,its only a 3 bed semi,but good size one,but only B council tax and get the 25% discount and i love it here.My partner is down as being at her house not here,,,,,so she can rent out the rooms tax free to lodgers .I have often thought of going back to work for 6 months a year to give to the kids more than anything,but far better i dont bother,help my dad now,and give them something when he goes from his estate. Inheritance tax is the big one for me.Being single i only have half a mill including the house,so zero incentive to work really.Luckily seeing that 40% theft makes sure i get plenty of spa days in. Not working has huge benefits.My dads battery is shot,so im going up this morning to change it for him.No bill,no hasstle for him. My partner does not pay any income tax now on her income or lodgers.I SIPP every penny above tax allowance for her,though im a bit worried its going up so fast,she might retire earlier ,not good for me

I think from a macro point its all about inflection points.Welfare is a good thing if done right,and kept very small compared to the economy.The problem now is its massive and way past the point of inflection.I think the huge problem is those driving the policy,ie liberal left nearly all have inflation protected pensions through the government,pensions much higher than the bennies,so if they can get bennies a 7% increase on £25k they are very happy because they have £50k inflation protected pensions.The ones making the choices gain.As we all know now,you cannot vote for change because they are all the same,run by the civil service.

Was watching the first episode of Clarksons Farm season 2 the other night and one of his comments hit me like a punch to the face. Was complaining about the state of farm subsidies and the uk govts response to the removal of EU ones with meaningless statements. Anyway. At one point he said that the UK is the 6th richest nation on earth. Think about that. The UK is the 6th richest nation on earth. Look around you. Im fucked if I can find any evidence of that. Even if it is true, the rest of them must be in a pretty shit state. At least its better than the richest nation on earth...

U WAN SUM FUK?

While not denying any of the above, it's critical to remember that most miners absolutely blew up their share count in the last few years and that's the major reason behind their alleged "underperformance". Doubling or even tripling shares outstanding since 2020 or therebouts was commonplace amongst juniors, and one should be careful when assessing majors as well. In the case of Newmont highlighted above, they upped their share count by a whopping 50% in early 2019 to acquire Goldcorp(se). At least it was mean to be an accreditative purchase instead of just raising money to keep the lights on, but equity per share took a hit nevertheless.

Just to highlight the cost increase changes associated to the miners in the likes of energy and overheads through the last two years (which is why the biggies have hardly moved with gold at these levels). 2024 should be a double whammy for PM miners, with energy prices continuing to drop (*if and that’s if we don’t get an war escalation in the Middle East early next year) and gold rising in response to a weakening $ and yields dropping. Then comes the possibility of more QE.

Not per capita. I think India is now richer than the UK or at least on par. I'd rather be here than India. By those stats we're richer than Norway and Switzerland. The average Norwegian or Swiss is richer than the average Briton. The idea that the UK is a rich country is propaganda designed to make us accept mediocrity. We're not. We're 2nd tier.

I've thought the miners would start to run into trouble soon with the high increase in costs associated with getting it to market. Looks like Anglo might be the first warning shot. Sharecast News) - Global miner Anglo American said on Friday it aimed to cut operational costs by around $1bn by the end of 2024, reducing production by about 4% as near-term constraints and volatile market conditions continued to weigh on earnings. The company had already targeted $500m in savings, and started by axing corporate jobs and costs at head offices in Johannesburg and London among other locations. "We are building a platform for strengthened and sustainable operational and financial performance. We took early action in 2023 to increase business resilience in the face of ongoing economic and geopolitical volatility and the current cyclical weakness in platinum group metals (PGM) and diamonds," said chief executive Duncan Wanblad. "As a result, we have already gone a long way towards reducing our business support costs by $0.5bn by mid-2024, with an additional $0.bn in annual cost efficiencies identified across our global businesses that we expect to deliver in 2024." PGM metals - platinum, palladium and rhodium - are used in diesel and petrol engines to cut exhaust emissions but are falling out of favour as the market shifts towards electric vehicles. Anglo said it expected group production expected to fall by 4%, including cuts at its Kumba iron ore operation in South Africa. Unit costs are forecast to decline by 2% - with cost discipline "more than offsetting inflation" - and capital expenditure by $800m to $5.7bn, including the UK Woodsmith fertiliser project on which it took a $1.7bn writedown in February.

Just had an offer accepted on a house. Not cheap cheap, but cheapest we've seen in a year. Needs renovation but is basically spacious and sound. Paid asking cos it was fairly priced - we looked at a house with another bedroom in worse condition almost exactly a year ago which was 20% more expensive. So I reckon the seller / EA priced in a 10% fall in asking prices since last year. Hopefully transaction goes through quicky now. It came on the market 2 weeks ago, we jumped at the chance.

That is exactly what is going on.

I come on to dosbods for a catch up, and I end up with butcher quality knives (why did I never think of that? thanks AZZ!), vaccum bags and a vaccum bag machine. And I've been googling whole deer carcass and thai massage ffs ... love it

"If you can't explain it to a 6 year old, you don't understand it yourself" - Einstein "If you want to master something, teach it" - Feynman This is why I switched off from Snider, he must be a spoofer. It's also why I like explaining technical concepts here when I'm asked, it's good practice.

I'll second this. There's one in Boro, no happy ending but she knows her business. You come out of there feeling like you're floating. She's a young stunner though so you need to think boring thoughts, especially when she flips you onto your back and her oiled up hand goes right into your inner thigh. Fuck me have I had some mental battles in there: "Think about DB's macro posts, CP's geology briefings!!!" 😂 Only kidding boys 😉

My dad bought a shit load near the bottom,as he keeps reminding me almost every day,he adds on the end,as for Vodafone.........,

Continuing on with my asset allocation research, I've been using JustETF to help model some portfolios. I've never gone this deep with the website functionality before and realise I've only been touching the surface. For example, they compute the return:risk ratios for UK available ETFs and you can see them in chart as well as tabular form. Great given my interest in better incorporating risk into our portfolios both at the portfolio modelling level and for selecting between the possible ETF options. Here's a first pass at a Permanent Portfolio (bit surprised by the volas) giving an annualised five year portfolio return of 4.65% at 9.74% risk: And a 60:40 (5.81% return at 12.63% risk, time periods differ by a few months): Here's a way of looking at returns relative to risk (just the first few ETFs ranked by their five year ratios with Japan (hedged), Taiwan, semis, etc just below these with similar scores): Here's one interesting deep dive. A chart of annualised return against risk (vol) for gold ETFs. Three of the lower return ETFs separate from the pack are all GBP hedged ETFs (of course!) and the fourth one is based on the futures rather than spot price (of course!!). Here's one for Brazil. IBZL is the green one (although it and the HSBC one are distributing, if that makes a difference given I believe it's total return)! Another take away was just how much the top seven S&P500 IT stocks drove up the index. Take them out and performance is pretty mainstream/subdued. Many probably already read this but a chart helps bring it home. It also highlighted the potential benefit in a sector (trend?) based allocation (optionally in addition to a more equal weighted core holding). We deliberately held a more diverse S&P500 ETF and could have gained good alpha with such a complement of sector (and probably more such as theme) based trend following, which maybe would be more conservative if the seven reverse (i.e. drop them on a trend change but keep core). Finally, some good tools to better identify and assess trade offs in income versus total return in terms of holdings. I'm increasingly sceptical of undue attention to equity yield. Can be costly!

Nothing goes up in a straight line. But… gold now comfortably above $2k and most likely going to stay there is a key factor of direction. As I’ve said before 2024 was always going to be a key year for PMs. It’s a catch-22, the signs of recession is there, either the Fed cut rates, print = gold wins, rates stay higher into a secondary wave of inflation, stagflation = gold wins https://advisor.visualcapitalist.com/visual-guide-to-stagflation-inflation-and-deflation/ which is turn as Tavi mentioned in Errol’s post about how 60:40 fund's now don’t work despite being the automatic framework to the majority of pension providers for decades. The 40 year disinflation cycle into an inflationary cycle. It brings Harry Brownes permanent portfolio back into the mix. https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/portfolio/harry-browne-s-permanent-portfolio--NoIgEghgTlCeAEAhKB7A7gOwKYHIDO8ACllALYTYYAuRKUVAZigDYCWKIANMKAJICiABkGIArIgCyAJUEAOAOxdBAOgBMogLrcQA4YgBiEgGwAVAMKjZStZu26RAcQDK+gIwANWVc4r1WvkIiACwAcgAiAMxGgqrWfhoaQA