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  1. Long time lurking

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Showing content with the highest reputation since 15/10/21 in all areas

  1. Here is what the government and BOE have done. Iv just been in Lidl and a very old lady in front of me at the till.She asked the girl on the till if she could tell her when the bill reached £27.23 as thats all she had and she would have to put back anything over that "everything is just going up so much".Got to a few items left and hit her target,she said oh the cheese ,i needed that,no its ok thankyou. Lovely decent old lady likely only has the pension. On a brighter note i bought the lady the cheese,i insisted,
    50 points
  2. I honestly don't know how some SME firms are surviving this inflation spike, liquidation bow wave coming perhaps. I have a small business and at one point our cashflow was -£300k where we expected to be as our stock value went from £500k at start of the year up to £800k inside first 6-7 months of year. Inflation on basically everything we buy. Given we price quarterly at best in terms of contracts we were (and still are) constantly chasing this cash deficit. We pay 95% of our suppliers on the usual 30 day terms or so yet some of our biggest customers (Multi-nats) buy from us on 60 day terms (max we allow). So we have an entire quarter for instance of absorbing inflationary increases (and paying for them inside 30 days) BEFORE we can even move the price. Then when we do move the price we wait for 60 days to get paid for it. So we're in effect 5 months behind what is happening. But all that while prices continually go up so when we have adjusted our price in a new quarter it is behind the curve again and we're chasing across the same cycle. We have survived because we carry quite a bit of cash on the balance sheet relative to a lot of small businesses but this year has been a massive eye opener as to how easy it is to lose even a fundamentally profitable business due to inflation and cashflow. I was talking to one of my customers (paints/industrial cleaning products) this last week who said 1st Jan 2022 it is a 25% increase on EVERYTHING he sells. It is that or curtains. I think the consumer has been sheltered from 90% of the inflation thus far as producers first waited to see if is was transitory (it isn't), then taken a hit with the speed in which they can move their own prices (supermarkets/retain chains can lock you in) and now they have no choice but to start passing every penny on as can't sustain any more cost increases. We spend £4k a month on electricity and I am getting concerned this could be £5.5k a month by the time we come to renew within 24 months. Add on forthcoming business rates review (deferred originally due to COVID), a forthcoming 31.6% increase to our corporation tax which doesn't seem to have caught any attention from the public...from 19% to 25%. Our debts we have to pay AFTER we have posted a profit and paid tax on it so this is an issue. And an 11% increase to our employers NI bill (13.8% to 15.3% is an 11% increase in this tax). The government is raping us (SMEs) on the altar of the sacred NHS. Of course add in significant wage inflation, the aforementioned inflation across pretty much every business consumable and stock item and then you have the perfect storm. For the first time in years we saw INTRA month pricing on some commodities we buy this month. They won't even fix for a month before prices ramp up again.
    47 points
  3. Just heard on a R4 interview (just before 9am) their two chosen experts saying that 'of course the vaccines don't protect very well against infection or transmission'. This was accepted by the interviewer without comment. They're rewriting the 'truth'. What's really needed is for a few journalists to start saying 'but any experts that posted this exact thing on social media only 6 months ago were branded as peddling misinformation -- what's going on here?'
    40 points
  4. Updated anecdotal. I flagged up early doors at the beginning of the year with shipping container costs rising with my brother’s company. My brothers manufacturing is now 90% based in the UK. Well now units on his industrial estate are going bust at the pace of knots. The guy opposite my brothers unit which employed 26 staff for years and he paraded around in ever new R8’s, has just gone down the pan today. He was importing everything from gym equipment to phone covers from China yet he blames Brexit for the collapse of the whole company. I can’t stress enough that this is the level of the economic illiteracy we are dealing with. This is still at the supplier side of costs and businesses going bust. Once this reverberates out to the consumer end it will be carnage. A 40 year disinflation cycle ending won’t leave many companies surviving.
    35 points
  5. A friend, about 30, was pregnant with her second child, was rushed to hospital with a mini stroke a few months back. She and her child survived. I didn't ask the obvious question at the time as I didn't want to add more stress. Yesterday my wife volunteered that the stroke victim is now convinced that it was jab related. I'll try and find out if her doctors agree with that conclusion.
    34 points
  6. Quite. The fact that this shrivelled piece of rat shit, isn't behind bars by now, sets the tone for the whole shit-show.
    34 points
  7. Sons GF has just been rushed to hospital with severe headaches, high temperature and back pain, they had given her a 'second shot' about 2 weeks ago because she was pregnant, she also had Covid about 10 weeks ago. She is 26 weeks pregnant...
    34 points
  8. I walked through parliament Square in London an hour ago on my way home from work. There was a large protest on, and my heart leapt, given the Coronavirus Act was renewed yesterday with a giggle and laugh in the commons, guaranteeing 6 months more dictatorial powers. I wandered over ... But it was for refugee rights. "No one is illegal" etc etc. Cars beeping in support. Any MP would just have to look out a window of parliament and burst out laughing. This is the mood of the people in bloody London. The shires need to rise up, the red wallers need to tell Boris go fuck himself. I saw the Blair and Brown documentary the other day, whatever about them they were good opposition, competent, smart and at least tried to make the country better if flawed. Could Labour please sort its shit out, this is getting really really serious. I had a thunderbolt this morning. I'd wager everyone on this thread is big on personal responsibility. Owning your shit. Learning from mistakes. Trying better. But look around: from politicians down to benefit claimants, no one has a sense of personal responsibility. It's always someone else's fault, always a reason not to do something. It's a cancer in western culture. And this solved the mystery of why Boris is so maddeningly popular: he is the arch responsibility avoider. He he is the alpha of slippery, lazy, two faced wasters, and they see themselves in him. The reason it struck me like a thunderbolt was because I watched "Night Bombers" on Prime last night. It's the only surviving colour film on the RAF during WWII, it's mesmerising, please do watch it. My God, did they own their shit. Like the 22 year old Lancaster captain who managed to survive his 30 missions, at odds of 3/1, saw out the war, became an accountant and never flew again. Basically volunteered, flattened the Germans, and then got on with life. I bet you he wasn't a complainer or finger pointer. Sigh. Rant over.
    32 points
  9. He's a funny guy -- he's seeing stuff that obviously begs questions being asked, but he just ignores it. At 2:00 minutes, he discusses the reproduction value -- this is how many people each infected person goes on to infect -- it is essentially what R0 turns into all the immunty, interventions and precautions are taken into account. But he's got New Zealand right at the top with R=1.27, and the UK and Australia at around R=1.05 -- but NZ and Aus have draconian lockdowns, but the UK is very much more relaxed -- surely this indicates that lockdowns don't work -- or, at least, you can't tell if lockdowns work just by looking at how the disease is spreading (which probably means 'they don't work'). 5:00 -- antibody levels aren't enough in themselves!!! The 'antivaxxers' and 'misinformation spreaders' have been going on about this for months and months, only to be silenced! The reason that the pharma companies have been allowed to only report on antibody levels (rather than actually measuring protection properly) is because the pharma companies convinced (the idiots in) government that it was all about antibodies. This makes me mad -- this is exactly what everyone has been warning about for months. 7:30 -- the reason that we've got so many cases is because the vaccines don't work. What's more, it really looks like they actually make things worse. Oh, and those antibodies? They're not important. Why are they being reported at all? 9:40 -- what would be useful to know would be the years of useful lives lost. People were saying this back in spring 2020 -- they were called out as being evil, because every life lost is precious and they're all equal. This stupidity has caused significant damage, both from the way we responded (was it necessary at all) the way we did lockdown (instead of Gt Barrington) and now the way we're doing vaccines. We should do all of the analysis as QALY (quality-adjusted life-years) rather than simply deaths -- that way we'd have seen early on that it was a disease that killed those with least life-years to go (rather than the crazy 'look at the deaths!' that they kept bombarding us with). What's more, IMO this approach would also show up the vaccines as being inappropriate for children -- the life of a child lost to the vaccine (70ish QALY lost) is far greater than the life of an octogenarian lost to covid (maybe 5ish QALY). 11:00 Zoe data. He shows a graph that indicates loads more cases in the unvaccinated. Well, for a start they're naughty with the graph because it is 'total' vs 'double vax', so you have to subtract the red curve from the blue curve to get the unvax numbers (most people would just assume it is vax vs unvax). But there's a massive problem in their data -- the unvax includes children and they're the only age group that's still getting routine(ish) testing -- of course there's going to be more cases. And then, lo and behold, he shows the next graph, that shows exactly this -- the cases are all in the children. To me it is obvious -- most kids are unvaccinated, so just subtract the child numbers from the first graph to see the actual effect (in adults). But he just doesn't question it (doesn't think) -- he takes the analysis at face value and says that graph 1 shows the vaccines are working and graph 2 shows the kids are spreading. To put numbers on it, the first graph shows that there are 50k unvax cases and 20k vax cases, but 35k of the unvax cases are children (from graph 2) -- really the difference between vax and unvax cases is pretty mild. Sure, you can start talking about vaccination rates in adults, etc -- but the 'gosh look at that' of graph 1 is an illusion. What's more, I believe the Zoe data guys know this -- they're deliberately spreading data that is designed to make it look as though the vaccines are highly effective. 15:00ish Long covid. Have these people been vaccinated? What about long vax? 17:00 Tim Spector says that if cases drift into the 55+ group it'll spell disaster for the NHS this winter. Why? They're pretty much all vaccinated. Why don't people just think about what they're being presented with. I agree with Tim -- it is likely to be a disaster this winter -- except I think it is a direct consequence of vaccinating the non vulnerable, and it could have been avoided if people had just had a bit of restraint. 19:30 Herd immunity threshold. The theoretical herd immunity threshold is easy to calculate. I've no idea why Spector says 85% -- this isn't at all consistent with the known values for R0 or vaccine efficiency (even being 'generous' with both you get over 100%). Dr J says 'would we have thought 18 months ago...' -- of course we'd have known herd immunity was impossible, if we'd have known the vaccines were effectively worthless at stopping infection and retransmission. The only people that wouldn't have thought this would have been people who look at vaccines as all being the same, that is, all protect against infection. It would help if people could be educated about the negative impact of leaky vaccines, but clearly it was decided that it would be best if the public were kept ignorant of this.
    32 points
  10. Everything Boris said today was inflationary.The costs will also fall hugely on ordinary workers.Even to the extent of woke councils fitting heat pumps that will cost a fortune.In the green space a fast follower would be better,but it seems he would rather freeze granny and be seen as a messiah figure.Very sad really to see the state of politics now here. Of course most wont happen and Sunak knows it.The problem is it will be hugely painful for lower paid people. Legislation so mortgages only go to certain eco houses is sinister.Young have always bought the do it upper houses.Once again pulling the rug so only those with huge capital can buy those to then sell/rent to said young.
    31 points
  11. I'm lying here dealing with my second experience of covid so offering my thoughts. First time was in 2020,but I didn't get tested because I hadn't got one of the three symptoms that the govt used as the basis for needing a PCR..Back then I was knocked off my feet for a week plus, fatigue, lethargy, aching joints....heavy flu symptoms.Took me a couple of weeks to feel normal again. This time, caught it off a symptomatic covid positive patient(first one we'd seen in 2 or 3 months), had to get close to listen to get chest and she coughed at just the wrong moment. She was vaccinated.So,so much for that theory. This time round has been much milder, similar symptoms just have a lot more energy. I won't bullshit and say its put me off the clot shot because I was never having it anyway. Unvaxxed and unrepentant. Saw a YouTube advert with a Dr taking about all the young unvaccinated he was seeing in in A&E. It may be true, but I can't say that's my lived experience.
    31 points
  12. More anecdotals... Something interesting happening here. My son's primary school has reported a number of cases over the last couple of weeks but now something interesting has happened. Parents with access to LFT devices have started testing their kids. Now that's their look out I guess but I'm not convinced that stuffing things up noses and down throats is a great idea. However, what it has shown is that as of this afternoon approximately 30% of my boy's immediate classmates are Covid +ve. That's with only a limited number of kids being tested, I suspect the true figure will be much higher. It'll be interesting to see what if anything this looks like should my experience be replicated elsewhere. Community transmission is inevitable with this level of infection. Against the background of waning vaccine protection this could be bad........ I think we're in perfect storm territory here. The vaccines do have a protective effect in terms of disease progression but this is relatively short lived. Therefore vaccines need to be administered often to be effective But the vaccines have side effects which are becoming too big to hide.... As usual, the clowns have fucked it up.
    31 points
  13. Why should anyone have to provide any evidence of having a virus? The world has gone batshit crazy. People have always contracted viruses…..such is life! The mass paranoia and hysteria regarding covid is off the scale and the destruction to daily life is very sad. Division of people has also escalated. I’m very pissed off tonight about the constant push to take a vax or provide evidence that I’m virus free. It’s insanity.
    30 points
  14. Wife reported 3 teenagers in RD&E with heart problems. All healthy, football playing kids around 15 years old.
    30 points
  15. Well I am just shocked, I tell you... Kuwait, being a small country, is a large exporter. When I was doing my DD on OPEC spare capacity about three years ago funnily enough, I'd flagged Kuwait as orange, as the vast majority of its production comes from one enormous field, Burgan, which is ancient. It started production after WWII, and has been drilled so much you can see the outline from space: Zoom in: Each one of those white dots is a drill pad, with multiple wells going down from it. Kuwait goes on the red (declining) list now, after a very long innings. That's big one. They consume half a million barrels a day, so 2mbpd left for export. It was 2.5m just three years ago. I think I saw something recently about OPEC being in 114% overcompliance. Has every single energy analyst in the world forgotten about OPEC cheating? Why aren't they cheating at $85 a barrel?! Well, it's because they can't. I think stocks and futures need a pullback here, but this thesis is finally starting to play out in public. Burgan is the second biggest oil field in the world, by quite a margin. It had about twice the reserves of the entire North Sea (UK and Norway) in it - these supergiants will never be found again. It was found 80 years ago because you couldn't really miss it! Edit: I have to credit the Kuwait Oil Co and/or Amena for using that word "sustainable" again. I wonder are OPEC (she is an OPEC insider) warming us all up for the reality...
    30 points
  16. The hospital is prodding about with my dad. They're trying to work out where these mystery clots are coming from.
    30 points
  17. Over cautious buddy. You'll probably have no quality of life post 78. Post 72 you'll see your spending habits severely decrease. I sometimes cannot believe the over estimation some folks make on retirement cash flow needs. As a species up to 100 years ago we never lived past 50. Now folks plan for good health and active life styles post late 70's. I always say, give up work for a year in your 40's, see how your spending habits change. Then do it again in your 50's coinciding with ailments and niggly health issues. Next stop 60's, lack of sleep, feeling drained. I think many overly compensate for retirement that they never actually realise, it's why the city spivs drive Italian cars and us mere mortals fret and worry whether we have enough to stop contributing to their tax take. Take a year off work, see how you fill your time, watch what you spend. The shit the BBC tell you, what you need is nothing like reality. I've been retired a year, your whole mindset changes. If you're a champaign Charlie you'll work till you drop. If you've never been a Champaign Charlie then when your retired you'll live within your means and not require funds to match a life style you've never had and probably never wanted. Looking back, if I were 66, house paid for, full state pension, no savings, no council tax, full pension priveledges, I'd take that without working my bullocks off for a private pension which I could not spend.
    30 points
  18. Comical conversation again this morning with the "covid deniers, everywhere!" idiot I posted on a couple of weeks back. This time commenting on how everybody seems to have a cold at the moment (which I personally haven't noticed apart from people talking about it here). I played along all the same and said, yep it's strange isn't it, I wonder what could be causing that? Idiot then says, "I've had a cold ever since I had my second jab." I couldn't help but laugh out loud and said that if I'd had a cold since my second jab, I'd be seriously considering whether I wanted to go back for a third one. To which the reply was, "Well I don't want to get covid!" Honestly, that is almost verbatim. I honestly wonder how the fuck people like that manage to find their way back home at the end of the day without help.
    29 points
  19. And they don't help at all with their rather shady dealing of the data they do release. For example, in the vaccine surveillance report they're very vocal about how effective the vaccines are. So, they'll say: Okay. That sounds good, and they've even included a reference. Surely I'm happy with that, and I don't need to go looking for more evidence. And they even give a lovely table with colours and everything to show how great the vaccines are. But, under the table showing vaccine greatness is a little footnote, probably ignored by most people: Oh. 'some outcomes' -- surely that's rare..? This is really dodgy presentation of data, and only serves to make me suspicious. They could come clean earlier on -- maybe they could say 65% 3 months after vaccination, and we just don't know about later. But they don't. IMO they're being deliberately dodgy, and it is unpleasant to watch. What we're seeing is 90% propaganda with a dusting of 'science' to make it appear trustworthy.
    29 points
  20. I`m 67 in June and agree with the sentiments of this post . I feel lucky to be able to still hike up to 15 / 20 mile at a push but my outlook on life has changed . Our mortality comes sharply into focus and the old saying the best things in life are free is never more true . I still remember listening to people say , when they retire they plan to do this that and the other , and not wanting to wax too lyrical but the truth is at times I feel privileged just to see another sunrise . Priorities change dramatically and things that satisfy are mostly not purchased . My wife and I have no debt and my state pension feels like a small fortune . I have been a sole trader most of my working life transporting household furniture . A fairly tough physical job and when i was younger there were a few times when I looked with envy at those coiffured men in their Porsches , but looking back now I wouldn`t want it any different. At times I`ve had just a few pennies to my name but at the same time no debt to speak of , and that is key to keeping a clear head and with luck never feeling overwhelmed . And in my opinion it helps to get a good woman 25 years younger than yourself if my age...but thats a bit of a minefield !
    29 points
  21. Looks like Colin Powell finally found a genuine WMD.
    28 points
  22. We manufacture rather specialist adhesives, paints, lubricants & liquid construction chemicals. Not many of us left anymore as the expertise/business has all gone abroad with cheaper imports. I expect we will be fine (well fine enough for long enough for me to get the money out I'd need), the 1st hit is always the hardest due to a) delay in responding then 2) the lag of being able to implement/capture the inflation. Now 1) is unlikely to repeat as once bitten twice shy n' all. We're a 168 year old business (I bought out the previous owner/MD) and the market casualties over the last 10-15 years suggest that is the way the economy is going; both in terms of government disinterest in UK manufacturing and also, as you say, rising influence of corporatism. Incidentally, we once had 8+ competitors, now down to 3 of us left in UK (tells a story about UK manufacturing in itself) - I expect we're strong enough to see off one other and then there'll be 2 of us in a death match. In the short term at least exiting competition strengthens the survivors, arguably what has sustained us over the past 20 years...until it comes for you too. I am a realist about the whole thing. Intention is to have no debt in 3-4 years (on track even despite the latest challenges) and own the land/site, that rents to the business (held by a separate entity) itself for £100k a year so providing I can pay everything off that'll do the job for me, I can just rent the site out and join the rentier scum, doing "f" all but living off someone elses' hard work. It is very sad though as I am very passionate about what is left of UK manufacturing and feel the government basically shits on SMEs in this sector. No help in anything (vs other countries which do support) and also domiciled to pay tax on everything the gov/local authority throws at us.
    28 points
  23. So just to be clear, the government are obsessed with making sure I don't die of covid but if I throw myself off a cliff because of their relentless mental torture they couldn't give a fuck?
    27 points
  24. Many reports, so far unconfirmed by official announcement, that Cambodia will follow Norway, Sweden, Singapore and a few others by downgrading Covid to a community disease on par with Flu and Pneumonia, so only record cases presenting at hospitals and ceasing all community activity, such as testing, track/trace and quarentine centres. WHO wall breaking?
    27 points
  25. From the comments, It must be him he closed all the windows and restarted.
    27 points
  26. This should be one of the top news stories of the last decade. They are all in this together. It couldn't be more clear. Fuck them all.
    26 points
  27. You just have to read AEP in the Telegraph today, people are genuinely clueless. There is a window of opportunity here to use the bounty of essentially free energy we were given with oil and gas to make the world a better place, and we are spectacularly blowing it. We might just make it, but looking at human history I think it will take a major dislocation to bring out real leaders who can sit around a table and sort shit out, like at Yalta and Bretton Woods. I do not like thinking about what that dislocation will be. All I can do is make sure my family is prepared as best I can, and share what I know freely for others to make up their own minds. Not many people are receptive to the message, which is why I'm here of course. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/10/17/world-energy-watchdog-guides-us-painless-net-zero/
    26 points
  28. Yes, you're of course right. It was the experts warning that the vaccines appear to provide only short lived immunity that were right, and they were silenced. And it was the experts warning that the viral loads in the vaccinated would select for vaccine escape and virulence that were right, and they were silenced as well. It seem to me that there's been rather a lot of science that's been silenced in the name of supporting an official narrative, and that will have done us no good at all. And, of course, the next thought should be 'are there experts warning of 'stuff' now who are being silenced by those wanting only to support the official narrative, and would we do anything different (or prepare for something) if we heeded these current warnings'.
    26 points
  29. No way in hell am I complying with any more restrictions. They can threaten me all they want. RESIST, REFUSE AND DO NOT COMPLY.
    25 points
  30. I watched Nurse Campbell's latest video last night and he has noticed that cases in the US per capita are far lower than the UK. He thinks it could have something to do with the fact that the US doesn't use the AZ Jab. This was the Man that said you ought to take whatever Jab you were offered as it doesn't matter which one because all of the Jabs work. What a fucking dangerous Cretin!
    25 points
  31. Scientist on BBC this morning said 'Of course, we are still in the early stages of understanding the vaccines'
    25 points
  32. Why do we focus on Colin Powell’s vaccine status and not the unvaccinated person who likely gave him Covid? Why do we focus on Colin Powell’s vaccine status and not the unvaccinated person who likely gave him Covid? (msn.com)
    25 points
  33. "Clot to the heart, Pfizer to blame, you give vax, a bad name" (With apologies to Bon Jovi)
    25 points
  34. Just for fun I'm tempted to mirror this and make up some memes. "My childs IQ went up by 15% after being vaxxed, Tarqin is now smarter than Einstein!" "Getting vaxxed cured my genital warts!" "Since getting vaxxed, my neighbours complained about the noise from our improved sex life!" Joking aside, there have been some mind blowing posts and information presented here over the last few days. Very informative but also quite troubling in many areas. I thought this thread might start to run out of steam but instead it powers ahead as if a small army are shovelling coal into the fire. A big thank you to everyone who posts. And I'll bet that as usual we are ahead of the game, I expect these recent subjects to start appearing in the MSM in around 6 months time, once the winter carnage has passed. Look out for headlines like this - "Opps, sorry, the jabs don't work. Never mind, no point crying over split milk, carry on." followed by the distraction of whatever bogeyman they conjure up next.
    25 points
  35. I am still surprised and confused that the best advice I have been given regarding the vaccine is.... Brudah, brudah, don tek da vaccine. Sista sista, don tek da vaccine. Strong words of advice. I choose to heed them. Totally the last person on the planet that I thought would ever be a hero to me.
    25 points
  36. We must do more of the same, as it hasn't worked. Text book.
    24 points
  37. I would agree especially as for typical Dosboders the possibility of having sexual intercourse is extremely remote and is probably on a par with winning the lottery and being struck by lighting … twice.
    24 points
  38. We'll see. I'm no advocate of what we've seen from the authorities and their useful idiots but I suspect we're about to see authoritarianism from here on in. The figures today will be causing pause for thought in TPTB: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ I suspect 1000 patients a day being admitted probably triggers some massive great "NHS Overwhelmed" alarm. We're getting close and these numbers are only going one way. I remain convinced that basically the NHS is not fit for purpose when facing a threat of this kind. It simply cannot respond to small %'s of very large numbers. The vaccines make it a smaller % but it's still very large numbers. If you have any need of the NHS in the next 6-8 weeks you are fucked. They'll be shutting down and prioritising Covid stuff again. It's not like they've had 2 fucking years to prepare or anything...........
    24 points
  39. Best kind of anecdotal... Overheard neighbours over the fence. "What a fucking week, one cousin's son has gone missing and no one knows where he is, and the other cousin's son who is in his 30's has had a stroke ffs..........." Now obviously I have no idea of jab status but I honestly don't remember clots, strokes, blood clots etc. playing a part in many conversations. Now? well there seems to be a lot of it about doesn't there?
    24 points
  40. It`s not about a virus ,the last thing they want is for the fear to go away They have done nothing in 20 months to reassure people but have done everything they can to scare people
    23 points
  41. There it is from the horses mouth.Remember when i said they needed to lift everything by 30%?,well there is your customer saying 25% straight price increase. There is a lot coming in this cycle,massive damage and huge changes.Distribution cycles rip finances apart.My roadmap is telling me by 2029 prices will be 63% higher than last March,but for many costs will increase even more. Where we are now is for lots of companies margins to be wiped out.Then price increase,but only some of the margin recovered.Sales will fall in around 6 months,then rise around a year later for survivors. The critical part is if government deal with welfare spending and government worker costs including pensions.If they dont this cycle we are entering ends in systemic collapse.There is a small risk of it happening before that. This budget will be critical to see if the government actually understand this.Watch for welfare uplifts,they usually go up with September CPI,if he does that they understand nothing,if he increased below inflation they know. There is a huge risk once the BOE stops QE the government simply go after capital.
    23 points
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