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Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 03/05/21 in all areas

  1. India is so bad some of the poor fookers are dying twice!
    24 points
  2. Hunter is a savage, I just spat Peroni everywhere
    20 points
  3. I told you they would shock the market and maybe go for rate increases while still printing to support government fiscal spending. ,nobody mentioned that anywhere or even crossed their minds ,yet us basement dwellers know Look at the markets today,look at the FTSE,biggest risers,oil,telcos,tobacco while NASDAQ gets whacked ,this is a money supply fiscal injection recovery direct into the economy as we always said,and the Fed is surely thinking now it needs to keep the fiscal going,but tighten through rates.
    19 points
  4. Kolanovic gets on the DB roadmap, and points out how institutional money is going to flood into our favourite stocks.
    18 points
  5. One of the first things the FED did last March was change the rules so banks could buy up money market funds.It was one of the first things they did to inject liquidity,mainly to cover the fact corporate entities were pulling down credit lines back onto their balance sheets in case they needed it.The FED lost a money market fund during 08 and knew they needed to keep them liquid.Its called the MMLF scheme. If the banks are telling corporates to move that liquidity back into money market funds it would see M3 fall back heavily.This says to me the FED is pushing the banks to get some of thi
    17 points
  6. On the mortgage front, looks like I did well to fix for 15 years as all products withdrawn now, and rates on 10 year fixes now higher than what I secured. Yet another subtle but key signal regarding long term inflation expectations.
    16 points
  7. Exactly,like we have always said on here,the cycle would end with a huge fiscal impulse.They are going around the banks and direct into the economy. Financial markets first,then it comes out of those into the economy.Thats why most people get things back to front.Bank balance sheets are fine mostly as long as there is no BK,but they arent lending much because of lack of demand and fear over bad loans,mostly CP CBs and government are trying to lift base money sky high,then sit back and rake the tax in with negative rates for a cycle.Its as obvious as you can get from a macro point an
    15 points
  8. Cross post from the sceptics thread. Brilliant 40 mins interview on here with former Professor of Pathology and Dr of 30 years,John Lee.He covers most of the major issues with covid the disease and explains how the Lockdown hasn't/won't work,how it's been counterproductive,why many NPI's such as masks don't work. All in all,if you watch one video from the last year on Covid,it should be this one.
    15 points
  9. I thought it sounded like it was going to be the start of an old school joke then. I’ll bust one out anyway... Three parrots in a pet shop for sale. They were priced at £170, £150 and £10. A woman asks the shopkeeper "Why is that parrot so cheap?" The shopkeeper replies "Because it used to live in a brothel." The woman finds this amusing so she buys the parrot. On returning home the parrot takes in its new surroundings and says "Fuck me, a new brothel!". The woman laughs. A few hours later, her two daughters come home and the parrot pipes up once more "Fuck
    14 points
  10. Where were they all two years ago,or a year ago,?.Of course the MSM is starting to get on our roadmap,but as usual they are very simplistic and missing almost everything.For instance they havent figured yet that its companies with almost fixed depreciation and locked in rates on debt that will be the follow on gainers after the energy space.Telcos especially.They are also missing the fact we could get a massive crash if they tighten too quickly,Inflation and tightening will be a terrible mix for the highly leveraged.The article and almost everyone seems to think governments have a cycle to pri
    14 points
  11. That’s how much my car costs to run a year (original purchase price £3k): Insurance: £179 Maintenance: £300 Tax & MOT: £160 Depreciation:£150 ..... and I still sit in the same traffic and go about the same speed and listen to the same music as the Volvo driver..... with the added bonus that I have £9000 extra per year for spending.....
    14 points
  12. WTI hit that resistance and was slapped down, but then bounced. No clear direction yet, I suppose it might take a while to clear a 13 year resistance. Oil could still drop 15% in a week here, but that would be a buying oppornity IMO as it is the best performing asset class in an inflation. Real rates yesterday broke down to 16 year lows (anyone have a longer time series than this?) Looks like it was backtesting the first breakdown and is now done. Gold is in pink. Look at the 2008 GFC crash: Gold dropped 20 something %. I picked it apart here a while back, and realised it wasn't rea
    13 points
  13. It's already melted up, Hunter is just saying he thinks there is more to go. He called one of the greatest one year stock market rallies of all time from March last year, I believe alone. He's already revised his target up a number of times, his 3500 and 4000 targets have been passed and we are within a few % of his 4500 call. Incredible. And he did this on a macro roadmap. I agree a stupid amount of money has gone into crypto, but who is to say that won't burst first, with the money running into stocks, gold etc? I suspect Musk is one we will find was swimming naked when the tide g
    13 points
  14. The Panther shall shine once more, so let it be written, so let it be done. I have prepared myself for the coming by placing this statue in my living room.
    12 points
  15. Thats always the end of dis-inflation,younger people see assets that take 30 years to afford on the wages and try to get rich quick.Of course a few do,but most lose the capital they do have and have no capital then or credit to buy real assets when they are cheap. Western governments are locked with huge structural deficits to fund mostly people to sit around.Its going to be very different once inflation runs and CBs slowly pullback.
    12 points
  16. Fascinating reply DB.Even after all these years,I'm sometimes amazed at the subtlety of some of the nuances you explain in laymen's terms.Sorry to sound like a suck up,but I could have googled for three horus and not come up with that answer. On anotehr matter,copper running hot.Every man and Goldman Sachs is calling copper higher,missing possibly one of the most important correlations of all.Until copper looks like turning,we'll be staying long oilies here.
    12 points
  17. I am mainly invest fundamentals looking for value. Naturally a contrarian (worries me that I ended up here with loads of other weirdos - can't be coincidence ). I try to trade swings and time my different sectors to squeeze extra profits. I try to assume each good trade was luck (don't get overconfident) and not beat myself up on mistakes. The micro noise is important on this thread as there will be a BK at some point in the future. I realise this is a macro thread but there is no one here that wouldn't like to be warned 1 week before a BK happens, perhaps even THE BK. So add a
    11 points
  18. Like Sibanye.Cracking managers who knew their market.They took on debt and bought up most of the industry during the bear market,everyone thought they were nuts buying failing assets.Then boom.Palladium rockets and they control the swing supply and print money.I want my arse kicking for selling most of them because i had too much in South Africa.I had 5 figures in them as well.Or as my dad says when he keeps mentioning how high they are now,"what did you sell em for dickhead"
    11 points
  19. Every bubble ends with hot money going into the stupidest things (pets.com etc). They may just be letting crypto ride as a handy receptacle for hot money, thus protecting the stability of the assets they prefer. They can let it implode and then regulate it afterwards 'for our own protection', or they can tax it, implode it and regulate it at any moment. But it's just occurred to me as very convenient for them to have the worst of the stupidity concentrated in an unimportant (to them) sector. I'm sure bitcoin will come out of it like Amazon did (less a 95% haircut), but people are just gambling
    11 points
  20. As I'm getting older, the feeling I have is that the boat being missed is the old head who has seen multiple technologies arrive that are 'game-changers' that old people 'don't get'. Until the endless belt of electronic nothingness is proven to better than everything that's gone before through multiple economic environments, I'm sticking with the people who've seen it all before. I can't shake the feeling that the crowd ushering in marvelous new tech are cheering the demise of financial freedom. The people who were on charge 300 years ago areal still in charge and even harder to remo
    11 points
  21. I think they will cut down on QE ,but they might use rate increase as cover to keep some printing going to fund government a while longer.So an interest rate increase yet still some printing and that would really blindside the market.They have printed over half what i expected now.
    11 points
  22. They will,but until the bust arrives they will taper once inflation goes over 3%.Government has about 6 months to get its structural deficit under control i expect.Most companies etc go bust in the recovery,not the downturn.It will be very interesting to see the government once the BOE stop buying gilts.Of course the FED needs to stop first.
    11 points
  23. @nirvana gold goes before the liquidity not after as you well know given your a top chartist ,and silver is the real inflation hedge,gold is more a systemic risk asset,so it rises more on the risk in the system and the amount of capital available to buy it.If i was billionaire id want more in gold,but ordinary up to a couple of mill it would be mostly silver. I wouldnt buy gold here,id buy the likes of Yamana,massive copper deposits on the books as well.
    10 points
  24. Save the capslcok until above $30 is held, if you don't mind.
    10 points
  25. One of the biggest gainers today is a newish one called CumRocket. Imagine putting that on your tax return.
    10 points
  26. 70% of Doge is owned by 69 addresses. It was created as a joke. These 69 individuals will dump the coin and thousands of new investors will get seriously burnt. It will give regulators the excuse they need to impose draconian regulation on the industry....a reason for a massive confrontation between banks, Govts and crypto. Musk is irresponsible tweeting this shit.
    10 points
  27. Just catching up. Yes, Kao is taking spare capacity at face value. In fairness, finance people have to, as they have no way to qualify it. Some banks hire ex oil industry geos to help with this, but they are second or third rate and we run rings around them if we want to. Without sounding biased, the only people you'll find suggesting this are active industry operator subsurface professionals. I still can't believe no one has noticed that Saudi is cycling production, or that Mexico is in steep structural decline (see whats happened since I said that a year ago) etc. It's subtle stuff. I pinged
    10 points
  28. Did a bit on sterling today,my target price is $1.4723 ,CAD,YEN and EURO all up against the dollar into summer. Not advice etc.
    9 points
  29. I fluked it on Sibanye and got in near the BOTTOM, though I only put in a grand it's UP 327% ! My Top performer in my portfolio, can someone message Mr Hunter and ask when his Crystal Ball thinks the TOP is for Sibanye?! Actually all joking aside, if my portfolio hits + 70% (its up 40% now) in the next few months of the MELT-UP...I'm flogging the lot ...other than the telcos!
    9 points
  30. You'd have to have rather large balls to short any crypto here. It's a mania based on zero fundamentals and therefore completely impossible to know both how high they will go and when they will crash.
    9 points
  31. Cheers I've got her studying the charts at the mo
    9 points
  32. "we expect the market to be late in recognising the inflection" We used to mention how the market was looking the wrong way at a key inflection point,funny how now more and more are coming onto the roadmap. The liquidity leaving bonds and growth type companies will be incredible.What people are still missing is this isnt a short term thing,its a cycle change,and will continue until likely around 2028. I also dont think most pension holders in those 60/400 or 40/60 in drawdown realise that even if the market flatlined and bonds sold off some,they could still be looking at a 15% d
    9 points
  33. WTI is an interesting juncture here, just poking above a 13 year resistance line from the 2008 spike, for only the 5th time in those 13 years. Today is US inventory day, and a big drawdown in inventory is expected. I think price will either get slapped down hard or jump through, and today is likely to give us the direction for the next few weeks and possibly months. Real yields are also breaking lower again, close to taking out the Feb 11 low, which will also indicate direction for reflation assets for the next while:
    9 points
  34. Lots of issuance yet,but it will slow then stop once inflation runs.Rates will increase before they stop printing.Just over halfway through what they will print.The fascinating bit is how they do it and how governments respond.Remember the Fed is trying to keep the short end down at the moment,but not the longer end.I think the exponential comes at the end of this cycle kicking in now.Real assets will be key to navigate the whole thing.We are at the stage where half the people feasting on the printed free money will try to take it from the private sector worker and saver.Thats what we are tryi
    9 points
  35. Looking like the Indian coronavirus wave is topping out, naturally, and without lockdowns, at about one tenth the per capita size of the UK or US ones. 5 days in a row of dropping cases, and 4 in deaths. 7 dma rolling over in cases, starting to curl in deaths. Fingers crossed for India, I'm sure at risk poor people there have no chance. Whatever are they going to going to panic about now?
    9 points
  36. I know it's the Daily Fail but the MSM are starting to predict doom and gloom. ALEX BRUMMER: Boom will give way to bust https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-9538279/ALEX-BRUMMER-Boom-way-bust.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead The Institute for Fiscal Studies notes that in the UK the ratio of housing wealth to national output is higher than before Japan's crash in 1991 and the subsequent lost decades. In the US, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority reports that total margin debt (cash borrowed to buy shares) stood at $822billion in March 2021 up from $4
    9 points
  37. Finally had the time to listen to that.Well worth the dollar. Some key take homes 1) improtance of opex commodities in pushing inflation-particualrly in light of US stimulus being run through lower ocio economci deciles. 2) backwardation plays a key role in causing capital constraints on US shale as banks/producers are unable to hedge beyond the spot sprice almsot guranteeing capital starvation. 3) OPEC would be mad to let oil run too high to say $150 as it would hasten adoption of EV's. 4) if demand normalises as predicted then spare capacity gone by 2024 5) long
    9 points
  38. Yep,democrat funders own the trains that ship the oil,they dont want much cheaper pipelines doing the work.A prime example of how the elite use the woke idiots to fill their pockets.
    9 points
  39. Sounds like me I always had a couple of months worth of savings. I made sure I wasn't dependent on any job I could bear no longer. It was usually other people and/or the corporate crap which got to me eventually rather than the actual work. With regard to high inflation and mortgages, I lived through it in the 70s/80s. We got used to prices rising every week and a letter from the bank every month or so saying the mortgage was going up. Mortgages were all SVR then as far as I know so no fixed rates. We cut back where we could and especially by shopping around on food/clothing etc.
    8 points
  40. Its at 11%ish at the moment,It was 23%ish when i ditched them all in 2017.Il probably never sell them now,i just divert all divis into other investments or spending. It really tore me when i sold them all in 2017,but my roadmap was screaming sell on them.I must admit im very happy to of got them all back now.BAT around £25.50 before divs and Imps £14.80 before divs. They both do have some problems though.BAT has too much debt and needs to keep paying it down,but you worry once at 3x they might start share buy backs.Id prefer 2x given where rates might be later.They are a machine thou
    8 points
  41. -6.2% real rates on my roadmap,range -3.4% to -7.8% Cycle inflation 63%,to stop government bust 34% above rates,so 30% rates over the cycle,of course rates will be back loaded towards the end. Got to go,the dole is ringing
    8 points
  42. I've decided to sell some bitcoin. I sold some a while back and thought that it may have got easier, but apparently not. I sold through coinbase last time, but they want to reverify my identity which will apparently take several days. I've verified my identity with blockchain.com, but they still won't let me sell for reasons that they don't appear to want to explain. If/when the bitcoin bubble pops the scramble for the exit is going to be carnage. Even if your intent is to hold, it may be sensible to get set up and verified on an exchange now so that you can move quickly if you ever
    8 points
  43. Yes I’m fully aware. With one massive wallet doing tiny transactions recently in line with Musks date of birth... Exactly that. DOGE is the ‘fall guy’ crypto and has been ‘allowed’ to get to these ridiculous levels. Regulation can be brought in to ‘save’ investors from themselves and the stability of smaller world currencies. Crypto will see a massive crash with the stock market in the BK. But it’s what comes out the other side that matters. Crypto technology and the framework is integral to the 4th industrial revolution. The ‘approved’ and regulated will be allowed to survive, hence
    8 points
  44. I can't stand Bob Dylan, the way he sings really pisses me off and I want to shove that harmonica up his harris. This post bought to you by the painter's choice of playlist. What do you find inexplicable that people would listen to? Post here, and if I don't agree, I'll explain why you're wrong
    7 points
  45. How Doombrose can write that first sentence, i do not know .. sure something else happened in the 1940s. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/07/us-inflation-fears-mount-fed-monetises-joe-bidens-deficits/ The US Federal Reserve and Treasury are repeating one of the most disturbing episodes of the 1940s and risk stoking a destructive inflationary boom, a leading monetary watchdog has warned. The Centre for Financial Stability (CFS) in New York says US money supply data is flashing a red alert and that excess reserves in the banking sector threaten to set off an “explo
    7 points
  46. You've had a benefits mentor as well as an investing mentor. An unusual combination. Good advice to lay the groundwork for claiming depression when needed. Trying to speak to a doctor seems like much harder work than investing though. If I'm up for redundancy I might put the effort in then. Am I correct that you get stamp towards your state pension by signing on? Good luck taking every penny you can out of the system. It needs to collapse and that means it must be bled dry.
    7 points
  47. I've posted on here about BPT before. Just filled my boots again on it, brought average price down to 1.3AUD. The price collapsed as the CEO did a presentation saying flow from fields was down 5% or more. Interestingly, about half the commentators on the small boards in Australia are saying 'dead duck, sell everything' and half are saying 'no debt, strong company, oil is going to rise, fill yer boots'. Me, I think the fact the CEO went public was a clever play to drive the price down legally. I would not be surprised if execs and insiders buy more stock at this price. Legal
    7 points
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