sleepwello'nights

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  1. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to Southmartin in Bye bye Treason May?   
    Some cracking stuff by a guy called Barney Lane over on Quora. Here he explains Trade

    ============

    For an institution that’s supposed to promote free trade, the EU’s record is appalling. Despite existing for nearly 70 years, it has failed to secure a free trade agreement with any of the world’s largest countries. Just contemplate that for one moment. The EU has existed for 7 decades. How many of the world’s top economies does it enjoy free trade with? None.
    No free trade deal with the USA.
    No free trade deal with Japan.
    No free trade deal with China.
    And let me ask you again, how long has it had to get one in place? Answer: nearly 70 years.
    The EU’s record on trade is quite outrageously terrible. The inherently conflicting interests that exist within such a large, diverse bloc have paralysed it. When 7 years of talks can be vetoed by Wallonia (a small part of Belgium), do you see how hard it is to agree a deal that pisses nobody off? Small countries like Switzerland, Chile and Singapore have all done better at securing good trade deals, than the EU. They have fewer special interests to appease.
    It gets worse. 40% of the EU’s trade deals don’t even include services. Again, for small countries like Switzerland, Chile and Singapore, over 90% of their trade deals include services.
    Now, if you’re primarily a manufacturing exporter, if your largest export market is France and if most of your trade is inside the EU, you might not care about any of the above.
    But that’s opposite to what the UK is. Most of our exports are outside the EU. Relatively speaking, we are a services exporter (the world’s second largest). Our largest national export market is the USA, a country with whom the EU has failed to secure a trade deal with, even after nearly 70 years.
    Compare that with Singapore. It has existed since 1965, yet in 2002 it signed a free trade deal with Japan and in 2003, it signed one with the USA. Singapore is a member of ASEAN, which in 2010 signed a free trade agreement with China. And (unlike the EU) the vast majority of Singapore’s trade deals include services.
    Now, some people glibly predict the UK’s post-EU trade deals won’t be “as good” as the ones it currently enjoys by virtue of its EU membership because the EU is this great hulking behemoth, while the UK is barely an amoeba. Really?
    There are several problems with this argument. One is, aside from questions of scope, free trade is basically free trade. Free trade deals are reciprocal. Access to one market in exchange for access to another. It’s not good or bad. The only question is what’s included and we’ve already seen the EU is quite bad at getting broadly based free trade agreements. Worse than several much smaller countries.
    Another problem with the argument is that it assumes you get some kind of leverage because of your size. Nonsense. If that were the case, the USA would have free trade deals with every country in the world, on extremely exploitative terms. But we know that’s not the case.
    The US obviously found it worth getting out of bed to deal with Singapore; a pipsqueak of a nation. Yet do we hear horror stories about an impoverished Singapore being horribly bullied around by big bad USA? We do not. The time-consuming part of negotiating trade deals is agreeing carve-outs, or departures from true free trade. If you believe in free trade, a simple, quickie deal is generally better than a big complicated one. It has fewer exceptions.
    No. Arguing that free trade deals can only be good if you’re big, is to misunderstand the nature of free trade. Free trade isn’t about leverage or outmuscling an opponent, it’s all and only about mutual advantage.
    Mutual advantage is something the UK offers in spades. It’s a huge market for imported manufactured goods and raw materials and is second in the world only to the USA in its finance, insurance and professional services. Its technology hubs in London and the M4-corridor, and scientific research hubs centred around its world-leading universities, are the strongest in Europe. In these areas, we outclass China, India, Japan and the EU-27 put together. We have win-win potential made in heaven. Yet today, we’re not even allowed to talk about it because our trade relations are determined on our behalf, by the EU!
    Now, as we’ve seen:
    it’s not all about size but even if it were, the UK is no minnow
    it’s all and only about mutual advantage
    The UK has ready-made potential for hand-in-glove relationships with some of the world’s largest and fastest growing economies; those exact same economies with which the EU has failed to agree terms, even after seven decades.
    For those reasons, I am quite confident in predicting that within years of departing the EU, the UK will have substantially better trade agreements than the EU ever succeeded in negotiating on our behalf, in its entire history.
    I mentioned above that the UK’s largest national export market is the USA. Now, guess what the EU27’s largest national export market is. Go on, what do you think it is? USA?
    Nope, it’s the UK. In a nutshell you see how — trade-wise — the UK’s and the EU’s interests are simply not aligned. Our largest market is not even in the EU, but the EU’s largest market, is us! This is the single fact that explains why the UK wants to leave the EU, but the EU wants the UK to change its mind. As a supporter of free trade, I’m happy that the EU has unfettered access to its most important national market. However, I’m not over the moon that the EU wants to stop us having unfettered access to our most important national market.
    Quite why some people still seem to think the UK is better off inside the EU leaves me baffled.
  2. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Hopeful in Bye bye Treason May?   
    As I read when India gained independence from UK colonial rule in effect they said all law and regulations will stay the same until we change them. Many regulations have not been changed since then, around 80 years. 
    What exactly will change on 29th March, will medicines become poisonous, will food become inedible because we will no longer have EU food labelling regulations. No, the Sun will still rise in the East, night will turn to day, in reality not much will change. 
  3. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Hopeful in Bye bye Treason May?   
    As I read when India gained independence from UK colonial rule in effect they said all law and regulations will stay the same until we change them. Many regulations have not been changed since then, around 80 years. 
    What exactly will change on 29th March, will medicines become poisonous, will food become inedible because we will no longer have EU food labelling regulations. No, the Sun will still rise in the East, night will turn to day, in reality not much will change. 
  4. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Hopeful in Bye bye Treason May?   
    As I read when India gained independence from UK colonial rule in effect they said all law and regulations will stay the same until we change them. Many regulations have not been changed since then, around 80 years. 
    What exactly will change on 29th March, will medicines become poisonous, will food become inedible because we will no longer have EU food labelling regulations. No, the Sun will still rise in the East, night will turn to day, in reality not much will change. 
  5. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to The Masked Tulip in Bye bye Treason May?   
    It would be an economic blockade - an act of war. It would also show to millions of Europeans that they live in a dictatorship.
  6. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to Hopeful in Bye bye Treason May?   
    It's like getting out of a controlling relationship - you haven't yet met the next partner, you have no plan other than to set off for better new adventures.
    So, yes, goodbye and never look back, is fine for me.
     
  7. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Funn3r in Bye bye Treason May?   
    Don't mince your words, say what you mean 
  8. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Funn3r in Bye bye Treason May?   
    Don't mince your words, say what you mean 
  9. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from OurDayWillCome in Bye bye Treason May?   
    and it can't dance for toffee.
  10. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to Hopeful in Bye bye Treason May?   
    She really is deluded
    She really thinks she can do this single-handed while everyone is deserting her
  11. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to Roger_Mellie in Not buying EU Products   
    I work for a company that has 4 factories on mainland Europe and is building a 5th. So not buying stuff made in Europe doesn't work for me.
    Incidentally, I was walking through Schiphol last Saturday morning and had a moment of clarity. It was absolutely heaving, and it occurred to me that there is no way of unwinding international travel and trade. We should just leave the EU and work it out, there's too much at stake and too much baked in for the UK to just be frozen out.
  12. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Soft lad in Bye bye Treason May?   
    If only she was that clever. She's devious enough no doubt. 
    Mind you thinking about it, it could well be that the ethos of Sir Humphrey lives on in the civil service. Yes Prime Minister. 
  13. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to One percent in Hungary we salute you   
    I would....  can you name all dosbodders as your extended family?  
  14. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Alonso Quijano in Bye bye Treason May?   
    Its made to sound like a bad thing. There are positives that haven't been mentioned. Imported goods will become slightly more expensive, therefore reduced demand for imported goods and substitution with UK produced goods. Could stimulate investment in our manufacturing industry. Actually Britain has in the past been referred to as treasure island for foreign sellers, if goods are priced according to what the market will bear does this not mean that prices wont change just that importers profits will reduce slightly?
    Most of the comments on the So-Called BBC article bemoan Brexit. There are a lot concentrating on the uncertainty of what will happen. As always its the transition that is the most damaging aspect. If we just went for a hard exit would us ordinary folks just wanting to get on with our lives notice much difference or would we simply adapt to the new situation with minimal change to our personal situations? 
  15. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from the gardener in Bye bye Treason May?   
    I didn't vote for her last time. She did initially rise in my estimation when she mad e the Brexiteers responsible for negotiating our exit. It didn't last long when you could see her sabotaging them.
  16. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Soft lad in Bye bye Treason May?   
    If only she was that clever. She's devious enough no doubt. 
    Mind you thinking about it, it could well be that the ethos of Sir Humphrey lives on in the civil service. Yes Prime Minister. 
  17. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Cosmic Apple in Bye bye Treason May?   
    And then what? 
    The negotiations have been badly handled from the outset. We import more goods from the EU than they import from us. We are one of the most important markets for their goods. can you really see BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen, to take one of the most visible trade areas, refusing to deal with us. If punitive tariffs or obstacles to trade were imposed by the EU then surely we would retaliate in a similar vein. That would be in neither parties interests but would hurt the EU more. 
    I haven't even considered agricultural product, our milk farmers would benefit, our fishing industry would benefit. Perhaps some golf courses would be returned to agricultural production. We have a very strong aerospace industry that could be capitalised on. 
    I can't see the EU being successful in restricting travel arrangements much either. I'm sure there are more British people holidaying in Europe than vice versa. Again they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
    VAT having to be paid on European imports would have an impact on cashflow for some businesses, that could be countered by using the money we currently pay into EU coffers being used to reduce the standard rate of VAT on certain goods.
    Our trade standards and product quality are amongst the best in the world, the lack of EU certification would be countered by substitution with our own that are hjust as highly regarded.
    Freedom of movement or mobility to me isn't that big a deal anyway. If a UK citizen wants to work in Europe then their languages have always presented us with a barrier, not so the other way, again EU citizens would be more disadvantaged.
    I have always been at a loss to see why our negotiating teams were so weak. 
  18. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Cosmic Apple in Bye bye Treason May?   
    And then what? 
    The negotiations have been badly handled from the outset. We import more goods from the EU than they import from us. We are one of the most important markets for their goods. can you really see BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen, to take one of the most visible trade areas, refusing to deal with us. If punitive tariffs or obstacles to trade were imposed by the EU then surely we would retaliate in a similar vein. That would be in neither parties interests but would hurt the EU more. 
    I haven't even considered agricultural product, our milk farmers would benefit, our fishing industry would benefit. Perhaps some golf courses would be returned to agricultural production. We have a very strong aerospace industry that could be capitalised on. 
    I can't see the EU being successful in restricting travel arrangements much either. I'm sure there are more British people holidaying in Europe than vice versa. Again they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
    VAT having to be paid on European imports would have an impact on cashflow for some businesses, that could be countered by using the money we currently pay into EU coffers being used to reduce the standard rate of VAT on certain goods.
    Our trade standards and product quality are amongst the best in the world, the lack of EU certification would be countered by substitution with our own that are hjust as highly regarded.
    Freedom of movement or mobility to me isn't that big a deal anyway. If a UK citizen wants to work in Europe then their languages have always presented us with a barrier, not so the other way, again EU citizens would be more disadvantaged.
    I have always been at a loss to see why our negotiating teams were so weak. 
  19. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to Chewing Grass in 'Worrying' lack of diversity in Britain's tech sector   
    You can't force tech out of people just as you can't force viable patents out of people.
    You either have the naturally gifted talent or you don't, creativity cannot be learnt you have ot from day 1 and it just requires nurturing.
    A lot of people do not have the gift, you can argue about it being genetic but the counter is that the Chinese have it in spades.
    Having quotas for diversity and inclusion is a sure fire way becoming incompetitive and gifting the sector to China.
  20. Agree
    sleepwello'nights reacted to SuperTramp in THE REMAIN TRAP   
    I don't know why we are so scared of the EU, it's just a giant protection racket, that introduces over 300 new laws and regulations every month that individuals and small businesses cannot comply with.
    The result being that in another 20 years the only businesses left trading on the continent will be a small group of useless industrial behemoths rather like the former British Leyland, creating useless goods, that nobody wants, at a huge loss. All the while being swamped by low skilled labour from the third world, consuming vasts amounts of resources in the form of welfare.
    The UK is also a net contributor to the EU, if we were to walk away, we could use the extra money to lower taxes and cut some of the worst EU regulations foisted upon us in the last 30 years, which would easily smooth out any uncertainties/ups and downs after leaving.
    Give it another 5 years and the EU will be begging the UK for access to our market.
     
  21. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from The Masked Tulip in Bye bye Treason May?   
    She said, with a straight face, we're taking back control!
     
  22. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Cosmic Apple in Bye bye Treason May?   
    And then what? 
    The negotiations have been badly handled from the outset. We import more goods from the EU than they import from us. We are one of the most important markets for their goods. can you really see BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen, to take one of the most visible trade areas, refusing to deal with us. If punitive tariffs or obstacles to trade were imposed by the EU then surely we would retaliate in a similar vein. That would be in neither parties interests but would hurt the EU more. 
    I haven't even considered agricultural product, our milk farmers would benefit, our fishing industry would benefit. Perhaps some golf courses would be returned to agricultural production. We have a very strong aerospace industry that could be capitalised on. 
    I can't see the EU being successful in restricting travel arrangements much either. I'm sure there are more British people holidaying in Europe than vice versa. Again they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
    VAT having to be paid on European imports would have an impact on cashflow for some businesses, that could be countered by using the money we currently pay into EU coffers being used to reduce the standard rate of VAT on certain goods.
    Our trade standards and product quality are amongst the best in the world, the lack of EU certification would be countered by substitution with our own that are hjust as highly regarded.
    Freedom of movement or mobility to me isn't that big a deal anyway. If a UK citizen wants to work in Europe then their languages have always presented us with a barrier, not so the other way, again EU citizens would be more disadvantaged.
    I have always been at a loss to see why our negotiating teams were so weak. 
  23. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Cosmic Apple in Bye bye Treason May?   
    And then what? 
    The negotiations have been badly handled from the outset. We import more goods from the EU than they import from us. We are one of the most important markets for their goods. can you really see BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen, to take one of the most visible trade areas, refusing to deal with us. If punitive tariffs or obstacles to trade were imposed by the EU then surely we would retaliate in a similar vein. That would be in neither parties interests but would hurt the EU more. 
    I haven't even considered agricultural product, our milk farmers would benefit, our fishing industry would benefit. Perhaps some golf courses would be returned to agricultural production. We have a very strong aerospace industry that could be capitalised on. 
    I can't see the EU being successful in restricting travel arrangements much either. I'm sure there are more British people holidaying in Europe than vice versa. Again they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
    VAT having to be paid on European imports would have an impact on cashflow for some businesses, that could be countered by using the money we currently pay into EU coffers being used to reduce the standard rate of VAT on certain goods.
    Our trade standards and product quality are amongst the best in the world, the lack of EU certification would be countered by substitution with our own that are hjust as highly regarded.
    Freedom of movement or mobility to me isn't that big a deal anyway. If a UK citizen wants to work in Europe then their languages have always presented us with a barrier, not so the other way, again EU citizens would be more disadvantaged.
    I have always been at a loss to see why our negotiating teams were so weak. 
  24. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Cosmic Apple in Bye bye Treason May?   
    And then what? 
    The negotiations have been badly handled from the outset. We import more goods from the EU than they import from us. We are one of the most important markets for their goods. can you really see BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen, to take one of the most visible trade areas, refusing to deal with us. If punitive tariffs or obstacles to trade were imposed by the EU then surely we would retaliate in a similar vein. That would be in neither parties interests but would hurt the EU more. 
    I haven't even considered agricultural product, our milk farmers would benefit, our fishing industry would benefit. Perhaps some golf courses would be returned to agricultural production. We have a very strong aerospace industry that could be capitalised on. 
    I can't see the EU being successful in restricting travel arrangements much either. I'm sure there are more British people holidaying in Europe than vice versa. Again they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
    VAT having to be paid on European imports would have an impact on cashflow for some businesses, that could be countered by using the money we currently pay into EU coffers being used to reduce the standard rate of VAT on certain goods.
    Our trade standards and product quality are amongst the best in the world, the lack of EU certification would be countered by substitution with our own that are hjust as highly regarded.
    Freedom of movement or mobility to me isn't that big a deal anyway. If a UK citizen wants to work in Europe then their languages have always presented us with a barrier, not so the other way, again EU citizens would be more disadvantaged.
    I have always been at a loss to see why our negotiating teams were so weak. 
  25. Agree
    sleepwello'nights got a reaction from Cosmic Apple in Bye bye Treason May?   
    And then what? 
    The negotiations have been badly handled from the outset. We import more goods from the EU than they import from us. We are one of the most important markets for their goods. can you really see BMW, Mercedes or Volkswagen, to take one of the most visible trade areas, refusing to deal with us. If punitive tariffs or obstacles to trade were imposed by the EU then surely we would retaliate in a similar vein. That would be in neither parties interests but would hurt the EU more. 
    I haven't even considered agricultural product, our milk farmers would benefit, our fishing industry would benefit. Perhaps some golf courses would be returned to agricultural production. We have a very strong aerospace industry that could be capitalised on. 
    I can't see the EU being successful in restricting travel arrangements much either. I'm sure there are more British people holidaying in Europe than vice versa. Again they would be shooting themselves in the foot.
    VAT having to be paid on European imports would have an impact on cashflow for some businesses, that could be countered by using the money we currently pay into EU coffers being used to reduce the standard rate of VAT on certain goods.
    Our trade standards and product quality are amongst the best in the world, the lack of EU certification would be countered by substitution with our own that are hjust as highly regarded.
    Freedom of movement or mobility to me isn't that big a deal anyway. If a UK citizen wants to work in Europe then their languages have always presented us with a barrier, not so the other way, again EU citizens would be more disadvantaged.
    I have always been at a loss to see why our negotiating teams were so weak.