Mental Floss

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Mental Floss last won the day on March 5

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  1. Hmm. Not fully thought through but I'm a little more positive than some. The reason draconian measures are in place now is because it became obvious (far too late) that just doing nothing would lead to news footage of bulldozers pushing piles of bodies into mass graves in the next 3 months. That's politically unsurvivable. We'll watch it happen in Africa and make a single about it, but on our own shores? Revolution lies that way. The size of the piles of bodies is arguable but imo the outcome less so. This is a unique situation with a new pathogen which is going to kill significant numbers of people who are exposed to it. Personally based on what we've seen from Italy / Spain, the Imperial College report was designed to spook the horses but not cause a full on panic. The CFR may never be known but 0.9% which was modeled does not equate to what's happening in Italy or Spain. China's data should be entirely discounted. They lie about everything all the time. The NHS along with everything else is designed to work to a certain capacity. If that is breached then outcomes get far worse. See Italy / Spain for details. So the plan is to get the incoming casualty count down to something the NHS can deal with. However, the NHS is not a fixed quantity as we know. I'd expect a few more "Nightingales" to spring up over the next 3 months. Spending on the NHS in real terms will rocket as this additional capacity is brought online. At the same time, existing staff can be trained up, additional staff can be brought up to speed etc. That additional capacity won't just disappear when the initial peak has passed. It will need to be maintained perhaps for years. Covid-19 only hospitals might well be a thing. It would be a use of NHS money that I'd actually support, It's likely the full lockdown will be released, but in phases. Social distancing will be a feature for a good while to come and business processes will change to allow that. I doubt the risk factor in shopping for a sofa are the same as going to the boozer or a nightclub. Behavioural change will also be brought around by fear. People will order everything online and have it delivered rather than previously wandering around DIY sheds for example. Face to face transactions in the business world will be replaced with remote working where possible. For those where remote working is not possible. Testing regimes will be established. It might even be like diabetes. If you throw a positive that's you isolating for 2 weeks. Additionally, they may approach this geographically. There's a very real question of equity in the measure put forward thus far. For example where I am there are < 30 cases but we're in the same lockdown condition as London. Which is mental but at the moment it can only be managed that way as I suspect the populace would undermine any geographical differentiation by fleeing to less "locked down" areas. That will require legislative and enforcement actions to be effective. But the nudge unit will be at it as well. There will be social stigma associated with being a Covid-19 tourist. However, all of this is predicated on the development of immunity once infected. If that proves not to be true then you will get this thing over and over until it kills you (or something else does).
  2. Nope. But that requires leadership and an ability to accept the risk of being wrong. I've espoused this theory before but it's becoming ever more evident as the state acts in these times. The actions of the police being the prime example. Their utter inability to act reasonably as they overstep their bounds with great glee shows how willing some are to align with state power. Orthodoxy now matters far more than ability. Leaders have been largely expunged from the apparatus, but should one have identified a requirement for PPE before it became orthodox thinking i.e. when Vallance and Whitty realised their herd immunity plan was a bust they would have been marginalised and potentially moved aside. The heavy thinking took place far too late as the "plan" was "fuck it, let it burn and if a few wrinklies buy it then tough shit." By the time to act had come the shelves were clear of toilet rolls PPE. Despite Vallance and Whitty pretending that we're progressing along a planned path, we aren't. The previous path required far less planning and action which is why none was taken. It''s easy to say words like "we'll ensure that staff have the PPE required" when you assume it's just the sniffles...............
  3. Bloke's usually a total knob end but he's right on this one. Part from the 5 week thing....
  4. "All of my money goes on food and accommodation because I don’t take drugs." Chinny reckon*..... On edit - There a very small timeframe and potentially geographical location where this makes sense. I obviously find it hilarious. You bunch of Joeys...
  5. I know it's always easy to do someone else's job for them but difficulty with ventilators I get. Relatively complex requiring parts sourced from across the world. Masks though? Are we really so far gone that there's no capability to make effective protective masks in the U.K. anymore? Fucking hell. What have we become?
  6. Many more as the figures have this little caveat which is very important "1,019 of those hospitalised in the U.K. have sadly died" Old folk croaking in care homes or anyone not making it through to hospital care are absent.
  7. "Well yes an ICU bed is usually supposed to have x and y and nurse z with this training but you know in this emergency situation it will be just fine instead with......." Isn't it the case that ICU beds normally deal with a wide range of conditions from people that have smashed themselves to pieces on motorbikes, those with cardiac failure, acute organ failure e.g. liver / kidney etc. There are efficiencies that can be made to improve survival in covid-19 cases. I'd suspect this is ICU light. Hook patient to ventilator and hope they survive type stuff. It's not the same as ICU in a normal hospital setting. They are using ICU as it'll resonate with people. It's not just a bed in a room where you go to die. They hook you up to a ventilator and you die a bit later.......
  8. Be interesting to see. However, what you’d expect to see in “normal” deaths would be a relatively flat rate with variations for seasonal illness. Thats not what the Italian death rate attributed to covid-19 looks like is it? I suspect some posts in this thread are going to age really badly. I hope it’s mine. Italy hasn’t peaked yet and we don’t actually know when it will.
  9. Really? I’m equally not so sure we’re not just seeing the political class trying to save themselves. As Thanos would say this is “inevitable” exponentiality cannot be argued away, it’s going to happen. We still have some hold outs in the denial / bargaining stages but a clusterfuck is incoming. A small percentage of a big number is all it takes for shit to go seriously wrong. This virus delivers that and a bit more in that it appears to whack medics first. Those temporary morgues / hospitals are a reality. TPTB cannot be seen to do nothing even if there is nothing they can do.
  10. It is. But deaths lag cases. This whole "we're different to Italy" stuff is largely sophistry in my view. We're just behind where they are. Clive Myrie will be reading those figures out in little under 14 days. We had some stupid super spreader events about 2 weeks ago. Cheltenham Festival and the Athletico vs Liverpool game. It's everywhere now.
  11. I find this line of reasoning odd. I'm not a psychic but the direction of travel is clear. As I've stated previously at one point in history a single individual had died in the U.K. from Spanish Flu. I've no vested interest in assuming the sky is falling in. However I suspect the construction of emergency hospitals and morgues isn't being done on a whim. More likely (for me at least) is that Whitty and Vallance fucked this up and know what the likely consequences are. That's why we'll be in full lockdown by Monday evening.
  12. Hmm looking at the figures As of 5pm on 26 March, of those hospitalised in the UK, 759 have sadly died. How long before they start redefining the word "hospital" to keep these figures down?
  13. Good work! Why are we so shit at this though? Something odd is going on. Our response such as it was appeared woeful. We embarked down the wrong path, panicked late and carried on fucking up with the likes of Sadiq Khan’s inability to understand what happens when you provide a limited service in an over populated city. But it just appears that the virus doesn’t like us Brits much....
  14. I wanted to do the last clap like in school assembly but it was more difficult with millions joining in.....
  15. Yep and now they've gone all passive aggressive "we won't apologise for keeping you safe". Fucking wankers way over stepping their bounds. Now there is a balance to be struck but that's why laws need to be carefully worded and scrutinised. There's massive loopholes in all this "guidance" crap. For a start define "local" is that my street, my town, my county, my country or what? ACAB never been more true.