This Time

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  1. I don't see what the tube has to do with me having a contrary opinion to the non scientists on the forum.
  2. That's actually bollocks. This was the Northern line at about 8:30 this morning. This is what my mate's commute has been like the whole time other than the times they've fucked with the service on purpose so they can put pictures of crammed tubes in the papers.
  3. As many as 75% of flu cases are asymptomatic. https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/
  4. I'm just trying to balance out some of the idiots here that with no understanding of basic science think that because the virus hasn't killed large swathes of the population yet that it can't. Reinfection is almost a certainty as that's how other human coronaviruses behave. Reinfection can result in disease severity ranging from the sniffles to almost certain death. We don't fucking know, we might not know for years. Remember that the other biologists on the forum are also saying that this thing can still turn out to be really fucking nasty indeed. It's the accountants and programmers that are convinced it's all fine
  5. You really think that people who need intensive therapy to relearn how to do basic things like talk are going to go on to live a full and healthy life? Do you think that all of the people who've experienced months of post viral fatigue are going to get back to full health? What about the people who've needed organ transplants because if the virus? I'm sure the life time of immunosuppression therapy will in no way make them more susceptible to infection. So no, I'm not being a fucking doommonger by saying that this virus fucks some people up for life.
  6. We know that's it's not as deadly as feared on the first infection, it's still many times more fatal than influenza and it looks to be causing long term damage to many of the survivors. There are several mechanisms by which it could have Ebola level fatality rates on subsequent infections - ADE, cytokine storm, increased inflammation. Even if it just as fatal to vulnerable people each time, there will be more vulnerable people each time because it's creating them itself.
  7. If reinfections don't occur we won't know for years. I'll be very surprised if we see any by Christmas. Fuck all people have had this virus, even fewer are confirmed to have had this virus, immunity is likely to last for 6-18 months. So that's 6-18 months plus the time it takes for some poor fucker who's had a confirmed case to catch it again and have it confirmed. Unless the virus gets a lot more common then it could easily take three or more years for that to happen. Despite what Hollywood would have you believe, science doesn't happen overnight.
  8. You what? We're second in the world for deaths and our all cause mortality spike was way worse than anywhere else in Europe.
  9. The only way to know if a virus is capable of infection is to try and infect with it. That would involve cell cultures for every sample. I'm sure @Melchett is better positioned than me to explain just how difficult and expensive that would be at scale.
  10. We won't know how the virus behaves until enough time has passed to observe all of its behaviour and be fairly sure that we've seen all of its behaviour. That will take years. The only way to hurry it up a bit would be to experiment on a large sample of humans (attempting to reinfect people at known times after initial infection). China would probably happily do that, maybe they already have, but nobody is likely to trust their data even if they went public with it. If I were in charge I'd be going for regional relaxations of the lockdown now - most of the country could probably get back to near normal for the moment. Get testing, quarantine measures, PPE, food distribution etc in place. Then go for a proper lockdown for a couple of months over the winter when people are less inclined to leave the house anyway. As infection numbers drop then the lockdown can become more localised - if only London is infected, then only London is locked down.
  11. Just goes to show that there are a lot of similar bugs about and that you're unlikely to have had it even if you caught something with matching symptoms in a SARS2 hotspot.
  12. This is what I've been saying since we started testing in February - fuck all people have had this virus. General consensus here has been that everyone had it at Christmas. Now general consensus is that reinfection isn't possible or that it will be the sniffles the second time around whereas I think it's more likely to be worse. I hope the armchair virologists win out over the trained virologist on that one.
  13. Why did you think you'd had it?