DurhamBorn

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About DurhamBorn

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  1. I tagged the bottom in most as was already laddering in.Got a bit of luck really in that i sold my miners and bought a broad spread just before they all turned higher.Hopefully plenty of pull backs ahead so people can get the structure right.Im very distracted myself at the moment,got a lot on outside of investing that is testing the stress levels.
  2. http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1568970965315216900/sse-wind-farms-business-wins-power-supply-contract-from-uk-government.aspx Up 20% + including divi from the lows. Underneath, all the ducks are getting in line for a reflation.People seem to be looking at Brexit only,when it will make no difference on the downside longer term.
  3. Sentiment got so bad that the price got below the levels where the commercials start to buy.Sterling should be around $1.42 on liquidity,but sentiment sent it down below $1.20.Likely UK cyclicals will keep running higher.The falls in sterling were around a 4% interest rate cut in macro terms for the UK economy.
  4. I did think all the UK cyclicals would turn higher a few weeks back as put on here,really strong run since,my portfolio has performed really well.Got some nice timing as well as some of my miner profits went into many stocks that tagged the bottom.Lots of 20%+ increases.SSE up 20% with dividends as well.Only really Centrica down much,but can live with that.
  5. Iv an 05 Pug 2.0 diesel 307 .Doesnt smoke at all,engine pretty much as new,110k on it.New clutch etc,but apart from that bodywork and most mechanics sounds.I bought it for around £5k at 5 years old,nearly 14 now.Iv got an 07 one as well as back up but rarely use that one.Insurance is £210 a year,repairs average about £200 a year as well. I like 2.0l diesel engines on cars as they take very little wear.Mine would shoot up the steepest hill in 4th if needed.The weight of the car is nothing to a 2.0l.
  6. Halfords is really tricky and iv been torn two ways on it.One side says its doomed as hardly anyone fixes their own car anymore,most people have lease cars (and the ones that dont can buy the parts cheaper elsewhere at motor factors).On the other cycling is likely a growth area,in the downturn more and more people should give up lease cars and own older cars and their easy fitting service of things like batteries and wipers should be a nice area.The worry is its cost base is simply to big compared to the sales they can make.I dont think id buy it myself as there are many more options out there.
  7. Because their price depends on credit and the cost of credit.The cost will be going up of mortgages and so will council tax,fuel,food etc.My road map says relative to present prices the costs of owning a mortgaged home will more than double and so a cut in half is the likely action.The belief is house price are driven higher by household forming,but thats not true,its the cost and ease of credit. Commods will be where the inflation goes as people try to front run their currency being de-valued and they feed direct into inflation.Money supply going into housing slows velocity,money flowing into commods forces velocity to speed up,and then go gangbusters.
  8. Fed isnt allowed to directly fund the government as it cant buy treasuries direct from the treasury,it buys them on the open market and in doing so credits reserves to the banks.The reflation ahead will see increased government spending,but as the government is spewing out more and more at low coupons the Fed will be buying more and more at the long end to try to keep velocity flowing.Last decade has seen the Fed mainly messing around with the short end of the market not the long.The reserves force the banks to get them out into the real economy,mainly through loans,but highly likely this time it will slow into real assets,kicking off a full blown inflation alongside a distribution cycle,
  9. I bought Schlumberger a few weeks ago and they are up 17% so far.I fancy a couple more,but want ones that have a history of paying decent dividends in good times,and also exposure outside of shale.
  10. Leads and lags.18 months ago the Fed was way behind the curve,its just hardly anyone saw that and still dont.They think the Fed need to ease,but you read everywhere how "loose" the Fed is.They are not loose,they are way too tight for this stage of the cycle.Rates can be zero and too tight.There is a dollar shortage now and thats forcing a debt deflation yet the Fed worries about inflation. For me the play now is UK cyclicals.Everyone and his dog said sterling was going much lower at $1.20,but that is wrong and as it does the opposite UK cyclicals will continue to go up in price.
  11. Its incredible really.Its like Tesco adding 20% onto the weekly shop at the till,not charging you but getting the cash sent to them by the government.No extra costs to them,just a massive boost to margins for free.Its lunacy.The estates they have built are shocking as well.Probably knock them down in 30 years.
  12. No need to buy it,far better buys in the sector.Its the sort of contrarian buy signal i like this.Nobody will invest in the commodity.That says they cycle should be bottoming.I like Mosaic and K+S in the sector. Worth watching though because if a big miner drops the funds in that should signal to buy the sector,though i already am in ladders.
  13. Yes,i use road maps to remove emotion.Gold hit my target and my miners at the time were over target so i sold,simple as that.Selling is the hardest thing to do in investing,its why i try to avoid it mostly and invest for whole cycles and turn most of my portfolio over a short period then hibernate again.I do keep a small pot to trade with though and if i sell i tend to top slice a few. Its actually been incredible how this end of cycle has followed a copy book macro path.UK cyclicals even bounced up hard as soon as the press said sterling was toast,and then of course its up 5c since.
  14. It could run higher yet before the falls due to the dollar not getting down below 90 yet.However i have sold most of my gold miners now as the profits were over 100%,some nearly 200%.That capital has already been re-deployed (a lot of it),the re-flation stocks i listed a few pages back that got some of the capital are now up on average over 10%.I wont be buying back into the gold miners until/unless gold hits around $1100,that is my downside buy target now,with the $900 lows been adjusted to about $1030.I still hold several silver miners and after top slicing some a bit im holding those. I still think the dollar goes to about 88 before it turns back up during a deflation. I havent dont hardly any work on gold targets since i sold simply as im building out my re-flation portfolio and time has been spent on those instead.
  15. Or,we know we might lose a shed load of taxpayers money now,sorry low paid worker whos tax we have lost.Utter bonkers policy.Real desperate stuff.Most of the houses and estates built with it are shit holes as well.