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About DurhamBorn

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  1. I view contrarian investing as cycle long mostly.Its not a short term way of investing at all,indeed its very nature almost ensures early red flashing across your portfolio,and it can stay red for a few years. Short term calls are more for fun and debate and keeping the mind active,not for investing a lifetimes capital.
  2. David and the team at Fidelity were the best macro strategists of their generation.They ended up managing a lot of pension schemes,usually US assets for foreign clients and were top percentile.As i said right back at the start of the original thread i met a member of their team and became friends when they were over involved in Glaxo's pension scheme in the very early 90s.Their short term calls are not really relevant to this thread,their long term macro cycle work is as they are all seeing the same thing,a huge risk of a debt deflation,and CBs asleep at the wheel. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bmw-results-outlook/bmw-warns-of-significant-profit-fall-in-2019-seeks-12-billion-euro-in-cuts-idUKKCN1R10UJ More and more of this.Profits falling because of increased costs.They need to invest in the new tech at the same time as input costs are rising etc.
  3. I agree.Nothing wrong with passive investing at all,but like you say its crucial you know what your buying.In my pension at work i have no choice but to be in a tracker until i leave.Its a UK one.In affect its tracking Shell and HSBC and a few other large caps.A lot of US passives have far too much exposure to a small range of tech mega caps.Here in the UK thanks to the crazy EU rules on what you can buy we are now cut off from most of the best passive ETFs for different sector exposure.The US range is superb,country specific,small/large,industry,commod etc etc.I used to always own around 20%/25% of my portfolio in those sort of ETFs,but am now unable to access my favourite funds (the likes of COPX,SEA,SIL,URA,and all the country specific funds.I wish those US fund houses would cough up the stupid Kid documents,but it shows how little retail business they do in the UK/EU that they cant be arsed.
  4. My portfolio is about £380k,my house is paid for (about £130k) i own another house paid for (about £80k),i have about £62k in a SIPP (growing by £2k a month) and i have a £360 a month final salary pension at 57.Im far from rich,but im very happy with where im at as i live a simple/frugal life. Nobody has ever given me any money (apart from my parents two 2nd hand cars) and iv always worked in factories as a production worker or ran my own business.I also had 8 years off work after cancer and ran my portfolio down by about £60k over those 10 years + the income.Most of my capital has come from investing. I spend between £600 and £800 a month all in and that includes having 2 cars and a van. I agree people have different needs depending on portfolio size,age,wants etc,but its really outside the remit of anyone here to consider such things.Its more a friendly place where people can air their views and experience on whats going on etc.My aim is to compound at around 8% or 4% above RPI as iv done the heavy lifting in the past and capital preservation is more important.Others will no doubt have different aims. Iv found over a long career investing and many mistakes that you create wealth slowly,and above all buy value and hated sectors,but in ladders and a broad spread. At the very least i hope the thread has got people thinking about the macro picture underneath the headlines,because its that driving,Brexit,Trump,Italy etc etc and hopefully when people look back on this down the line the long term calls will prove right in direction if not extremes. If its an echo chamber at the moment its perhaps because not much has changed and there are plenty of different views on here,especially around the PM sector.Of course if the thread has ran its course we could always re-visit in the future and see how accurate some of the calls were,for me that means when gold hits $1450+. and the GDX gets above $27.
  5. It would have no affect.Silver is all about inflation in the next cycle.Inflation in energy that drives green investment and investment demand.Who owns what in the space is always smoke and mirrors.I fully expect $150 silver minimum in the next cycle.Time will tell.
  6. The truth is nobody knows when a market will top or bottom.I have lots of different reasons to start buying individual stocks and mostly its when they hit targets.Go Ahead my target was £15 to start ladder buying for instance.I aim for 4 or 5 ladders and if i get five it means a stock is down around 80% from its highs.I tend to start buying at a minimum 40% down from highs.I think all the stocks im buying are already cheap,some very cheap but they might get cheaper.Thats why i ladder buy. Will BAT tobacco go down if Amazon goes down 80%?.I dont know.I do know at £24 it was yielding 8.2% and was down 53% from where i sold and was happy to buy it back.Will Standard Life go below £2.32 in an equity sell off?.Almost sure it will,but i still started buying at £2.32 as i want it for the next cycle.I have no concern if my first ladder goes down 40% from there and would be happy to be getting a ladder in at £1.42 Iv learned that the way that suits me best it to slowly buy the most hated assets that the next cycle should favour and i have no problems being down for however long. I do tend to sell bottom ladders when they go up 20%,but not always.I havent sold Go Ahead for instance and they are up 33%,but i want all that holding for the next cycle.Some i sell the whole holding. Turning a large portfolio over takes time and caution,but i expect once fully invested id be doing very little for several years. I should add the shares that made me the most since i started investing 34 years ago have often been down quite a lot from buying.BAT for instance was down 20%+ but ended up giving me 1000%.Whitbread similar etc. If the FTSE does get hit hard,id expect probably 1% down for every 2.5% in the S+P
  7. My friends view, a melt-up in coming months that will take the S&P to 3500-4000 . This will be followed by the biggest bear market since 1929 with the potential for an 80% drop in the bust. We will not revisit the bull market highs again for decades.My gold and silver targets remain unchanged. I continue to expect $1550 gold & $26 silver by late summer. My GDX & GDXJ targets remain the same at $40 & $70, respectively. I continue to expect the dollar to decline to 85-86 in coming months (months not month). Current pullback could take GDXJ back below $30 before the march to $70 resumes This is not trading advice,just putting it out there,these are macro calls based on extremes of the liquidity and debt profiles he sees. I actually took my profits on Great Panther Silver on friday.I had a 70% profit on it and although i would like to hold until silver hits targets,i have lots of silver positions.Im going to use the profits to buy some physical silver i think and if it pulls back to $1.05 re-enter.
  8. I dont really bother with housing mainly as il die in the one i already own outright though i do have some interest in that my son hasnt bought yet (my daughters will be mortgage free by 30 and 33 in 3 bed semis). However i see a down 15%,small flat line or perhaps 3% increase,then slow falls in nominal and bigger in real terms.By 2028 i expect southern house prices to be down inflation adjusted by around 70%,45% minimum. Here in the north i expect maybe 25% down inflation adjusted in some areas,nominal perhaps very small falls.Iv seen lots of southerners moving here the last year to get away from the immigration and crime in other southern areas.Never seen that before. In short i wouldnt touch a southern house,i would buy a northern one as a home and aim to pay it off quickly before rates really jack up towards the end of the next cycle,say 2027. If i was buying a southern house,it would be around 2028/29 as rates top out prices likely bottom inflation adjusted.
  9. Its true.Massive amounts grown in my home town,every street has a farm in the attic.Once its legal big tobacco will clean up in the area.Id expect them to make it legal in small doses to vape for sleep problems first.Imperial Brands (tobacco) are investing in a Cambridge or Oxford firm doing studies in such things. The government is funding the production as well.The people get someone on the dole to rent the house and get the rent paid from the social.Other people go around watering them all every day.
  10. Yes a bit like the tobacco market.Price increases run faster than the falling use.The big area will be parcels though.RM has struggled to push up parcel prices due to competition and also the likes of Amazon.Amazon wont be as able to cover losses in the next cycle as equity holders wake up to the fact they are funding every purchase.
  11. Thats exactly what is going to happen.Everyone is pricing these sort of companies looking backwards and thinking that kind of cycle is forever.Dis-inflation hits them hard as it does telcos and energy as you say.Royal Mail is worth 4x its price once a little bit of inflation gets into its pricing and the competition gets washed away/and/or has no choice but to increase prices.I hope the market keeps pushing these sort of companies down so i can keep laddering in.People really have forgot all about inflation and its affects.
  12. For their sake i hope they have bought silver maples with the money
  13. From the spring statement today. the largest ever investment in England’s strategic roads; the biggest rail investment programme since Victorian times; and a strategy for delivering a nationwide full fibre network by 2033
  14. Just my opinion,but i think the way to play the energy cycle is silver and silver miners and the bigger energy players who are putting the right parts into their portfolio now.Remember SSE doesnt need to sun to shine or wind to blow all the time.It has hydro and will use wind power over night to pump water back into its reservoirs.It has the biggest battery storage in the UK.Water.