DurhamBorn

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  1. In the UK it was helicopter money for chosen people.My friend gets £1800 a month in benefits sat on the sofa at home.The BOE monetized the entire tax credit bill for 7 years.It flows through those people to asset owners.The winners are asset owners and benefit claims.The losers savers and anyone who works.
  2. Yes i expect Europe to suffer the most.China is about to export its inflation instead of deflation.They will spend and spend to import US goods for the people and to keep the US happy (until they understand this means lower US living standards).China will then invest like crazy in the one belt one road project.They will also move massive amounts of people onto public transport as they try to hold down the amount of oil imports.Bus orders and digger orders are going through the roof in China as other manufacturing falls.The reflation is being set all around the world now and is only a matter of time.The window is closing when youl be able to get PM miners and the metals at prices that will seem insane by 2027/28.Deflation is over (with a final debt deflation to say goodbye).The consumer isnt going to drive the economy going forward,its going to be full on liquidity injected into the veins of the economy where velocity will be unleashed.Massive amounts of wealth are going to be moved from deflation loving assets (bonds,cash,rental houses,large parts of the stockmarket) to inflation loving assets.As often happens at key inflection points the very assets that will ride the inflation wave are the ones most hated,most avoided and most laughed at.Nothing is ever certain,but there is a chance small investments could turn into life changing sums for ordinary people placed in the right areas.
  3. As i mentioned earlier in the thread iv been stocking up on clothes mostly on Ebay auctions and the prices are crazy cheap.Things like M&S Blue harbour chinos that are £39 for £6.00 delivered and pretty much new,bundles of shirts for around 10% of the cost new yet they are pretty much new.Lots of people these days when someone dies etc simply call in the house clearing people rather than do it themselves and they then will sell the clothes on as a job lot for a few quid.Im getting a lot in now as i fully expect the prices of 2nd hand decent quality stuff to start going up in a year or two.
  4. We are a hugely efficient economy and the next cycle will suit us compared to most.The consumer will be less of the economy though and will take the pain and the leveraged will be hit hard. The UK is a very cheap place to live if you take housing out of the picture.Iv never known it so cheap for a night out etc.Im off out to an Italian restaurant tomorrow that does 3 course lunch for £7.99 and its lovely quality only have to work 25 minutes to earn that and can earn a pint in Spoons and other places in 7 minutes.In the 80s i had to work 30 minutes for a pint.Like you say wealth funds arent much use when everything costs so much.The UK oil money was spent,but it helped get the economy through the transition from an inflation cycle to a deflation one.The opposite is about to happen now of course as we exit a deflation cycle.Its ironic in the US Trump is saying to the chinese we want a zero trade deficit and they are saying ok by 2022.He is without knowing asking them to export back to the US all the inflation they soaked up from them since the 80s.The rust belt might not be so happy when everything is going up in price faster than their wages.
  5. I hope that remains for a while yet as id very much like to keep adding 100% of my salary to silver miners until they run.I think silver at $23 to $26 is the minimum it will reach within 24 months.By 2028 i fully expect the $190 area to be the minimum price,the maximum $900+.That seems insane,but we will only know then and thats what likely liquidity profiles and past charting of silver cycles to liquidity point to.Within two years once the first target is hit as it will be the miners will compound the increase and 200%+ increases in many of the stocks likely. We are in the very early stages of a hugely powerful and longer term lasting advance.It doesnt feel like that right now,and it shouldnt,but it will in time. I should add,im not a chartist,but i think once silver gets back above $16 then that is likely when it will start to trend.
  6. Single person on £15k pays tax to fund someone on £30k on tax credits.Its more insane messing about.The truth is benefits are so high now most people never build any capital because there is no point.Houses used to be the way it was done for the working working class,but now in many areas of the country that has been removed. Of course you could argue its not much different than giving someone 40% as pension tax relief.The government would be far better scrapping that and lifting it to 25% or 30% for everyone.Even the first line is telling "save for a holiday" so again its saying that the government no longer see benefits as breadline until back on feet.They are now a living. The only really sane way for people who actually work these days is to go down the FIRE route,or something similar an use ISAs and SIPPs to ensure you dont pay income tax towards things.Iv got 3 years NI for a full record and at that point (if not before) il never pay NI or Income tax again.If i wanted an income boost for any reason it would be only a enough hours to get to any threshold. Whats also telling though is that its likely the government now want to find other ways rather than lifting the tax free allowance up.Its in a range now where people can live fine within the tax free limit.Thats a good thing,but not if more and more people decide to do it.
  7. Im still leaning towards silver to $22/23 then hit hard in a big debt deflation.However everything i see in my road map apart from that short term hit (less than a year) points to the biggest silver bull market in history.So im starting to think perhaps il simply average in if silver does indeed go below $10 and then sit back.If im wrong on the dip and silver starts to trend then all is good.If im right and there is one last big sell off then take advantage.Im pretty confident $180 is a minimum for silver by 2027ish.There is also the option that if silver does indeed hit $22 to perhaps top slice. The Royal Mint has also seen a big increase in people buying gold and silver coins. https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/brexit-turmoil-spurs-uk-investors-to-buy-gold-1.61496692
  8. Iv been buying/adding to silver miners the last few days, Endeavour Silver Corp,Alexco Resource Corp,Fortuna Silver Mines,Great Panther Silver and International Tower Hill Mines. I see silver 16.25,maybe down to 15.60 then start a run to $22/23 and maybe $27 within 24 months.During the reflation/next cycle ahead minimum target is $180 by 2027 with a potential for $700+.That seems a crazy price,but back tracking the price to 2011 and the liquidity printed since and to come makes that price a maybe.$400 of it might be a final parabolic blow off though.Im leaning more and more to holding onto my miners through any falls and averaging more into them as a whole.I think its highly likely there are going to be some 100+ baggers among them in the next decade (and of course a victim or two along the way so a spread and caution is always needed). The signs are more and more that the debt deflation is underway and margins are being destroyed across many sectors "want and/or debt financed".Countries are pulling away from each other and populations are pulling away from their governments.Of course the dumb press and media will have lots of things to blame,but once the Fed tightened into a system as leveraged it was certain. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/credit-card-debts-deal-fresh-blow-to-battle-scarred-provident-financial-ttcjvftm5 That above is very telling.Vanquis is where people go to rebuild their credit profile/have access to some finance while impaired.Its usual people do everything not to default on those.The fact that even they,last chance saloon are seeing defaults says its getting bad out there.For youngsters sake and the people who havent joined in the madness i really hope most of the pain in the UK falls on house prices as is likely,but it might be that a distribution cycle alongside investment fees slowly push almost everyone to the poor house.
  9. Thats an insane grade kibuc if true and along strike.Only some of the deep SA mines can get near to that.
  10. My target for gold is still the $1500 area and silver $22 so id gladly buy miners at the moment and am topping up silver miners each month out of my wages.The miners are hated and it might be we drift in them or even slowly down to disgust the final hands to leave before the big trend higher. Im actually very pleased with how a lot is going.The transports have done very well,other stocks i want have hit or are close to next buy points. Notice today how Hitachi have pulled out of building that nuclear plant as costs are too high.What that really means is energy prices are too low to build it.A classic example of how deflation will lead to high inflation.Those energy assets already out there are undervalued by a long way and that will become very clear as the cycle unfolds. Notice today as well Primark unable to lift sales.Great company,probably the best out there in the space,but simply cant push the consumer any harder.Just as our macro work points,the consumer is about to become a smaller part of the economy,investment will have to take up the slack. Im noticing more and more analysts who are talking about certain areas of the market that will need divi cuts etc.That might happen,but what they are missing is the massive uplift in free cash when inflation starts to trend.Need/wont give up high capital investment areas suck up the spending power,want/like takes the hit.
  11. Anyone noticed how well the transports are doing?.Really bounced a lot from the bottoms.Im not selling my bottom ladders this time though just in case they dont re-test lows again. Its amazing isnt it when our main concern is not leaving too much in cash too long.It shows the insane way governments have spent (mostly on welfare both client state and corporate) and the CBs have allowed them by monetizing the debt (or in the UK case about half the increase).I have zero faith in fiat going forward.I have no doubt we will all have pounds in our pocket,but the value will be inflated away.The first round of inflation they printed went into assets (in the UK mostly houses) and inflated spending power away that way,the next lot will go into other real assets,energy,food,commods etc.That round will do the real damage to most people.Rates will tighten,but behind the curve.My home is my pension will be blown away through the cycle,that im certain of. Iv managed to find a IFA who will handle a final salary pension transfer into a SIPP,a good friend of mine uses him.He is as dodgy as they come and likes the folding stuff as he has a thirst for women of the night and will rubber stamp it for £700,
  12. Iv been building a wildlife garden pond so havent had time for the markets.Gold is doing fine though and the miners drifting down again as weak hands get fed up.GDX should bounce off the $20 level,and likely at that point we will start to trend higher and higher.The dollar against the Swiss franc has made an 18 year cycle high and since then has had 4 attempts to break out against resistance of tops in 2014, 15 and 16. This is a warning to dollar bulls and very bullish for Gold.
  13. I know plenty of people (im talking half of most northern ex pit villages etc) who retired before they were 25,all on benefits.The problems came when Brown increased them at a huge rate and he also created it where benefits added on top of each other.Work 16 hours have £80 tax credit on top,have a child have £65 extra + £20 child benefit,,oh he is a bit naughty,pretend he has ADHD or something,have another £50 tax credits,oh and PIP for care,have another £60 a week.House? have another £120 for the rent.£400 for free a week.When i started work in 88 a single parent in that situation would of ended up getting about 55% of what i took home from a decent factory job.There was plenty of incentive to work and get one,buy a house,build savings etc. Now the single mother in that situation gets around 35% MORE than someone working 40 hours hard work in a local factory.Insane. Anyway its off topic and better on other threads,but it does show how this country really is now one of 50% taking from the other 48.9% and the 1% taking it from all of them.We want to be the 0.1% who navigate the situation.
  14. Thats very true,but council tax is getting to crazy level.Iv got care costs sorted out for my family.I sent my daughter to uni to be a nurse and my partner is a nurse/community care worker.If my dad gets to that stage we are shipping him in here to my back bedroom and she is packing in work.My dad will simply divert his pensions to her apart from some gambling money and whiskey .My partner would do the same for me,or my daughter would,as again once/if i get to that stage il divert my money to my daughter and then when i peg she can retire anyway.