DurhamBorn

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  1. Liquidity crunch.I own PMs,but have capital set back if those falls do happen.Not a given of course. Yes,apart from treasuries probably and maybe some defensive sectors.
  2. I think gold is a deflation and inflation hedge in that it does well against different kinds of fear.Silver is almost a full on inflation hedge.Thats why when is see inflation ahead i like silver.I still think in the next cycle silver and natural gas will be the two best performing assets. I still think we might get a sell off in the PMs.I dont do much on them now,but i see gold at $1750 then down to maybe $1050 and silver up to $22 then down to $9.
  3. Are they south of York?.I loved Sheffield when i lived there,but probably too far south for you.
  4. Id forget York,its actually pretty shit,floods every other day and there is actually very little money there.If you want east coast mainline you want a village around Darlington.Its only 25 mins on train to York and 2hr 10mins to Kings Cross.You want the villages on the edge of Darlo,there are dozens of them,Middleton-st-George,Croft,Hurworth,Coniscliffe etc.Durham is also far better than York and on the mainline.Just avoid the old pit villages.
  5. Yep and that profit will mean they can open the Greek mines.Massive for them.
  6. I was in the game.It was crucial you got your summer stock middle of March into April.If not you get it too late then you dont sell it in time (nobody buys garden furniture after August) then you dont get your cash in,or have space for the autumn stock.Retail is very just in time nowadays.My old account manager in China says ships are sailing from Ningbo with only 25% of the containers on board.The containers are booked on,just not turning up.
  7. Eldorado Gold that old dog is barking now ,it ran down through my ladders like a steam train.Apple cant make its phones,and Eldorado going to the moon,lovely.
  8. Yes,i see it as paying most of my council tax,assuming they dont close that loop hole.I assume you simply pay £2880 into your SIPP even when in drawdown (i assume you can pay into your SIPP in drawdown?)
  9. Electric.They use electrodes to produce the arc.They dont use pig iron though they are mainly for scrap (a blast furnace produces pig iron using coke and ore then getting oxygen into it).The beauty is you can run them when electric is cheap and knock them on and off.Another spin off of the fact the UK can produce lots of wasted wind power.
  10. Agree 100%.Thats what everyone is missing.Its not that there is no future for oil,there isnt,not for energy,but to get to that point needs massive amounts of oil. This is rough,but i think in the next cycle BP might get to the point where they have $25 billion free cash a year.If they roll back Capex,maybe $30billion+.They can buy all the green tech they want then.Then they might have 20 years where they can run Capex at simple safety levels and return all the cash. In other news they are going to re-open the steel works in Teeside.New arc furnace the lot iv heard.The Tories opening a new steel works.In Redcar.A seat they won at the last election.All these things that everyone would say will never happen,is happening daily now.Next we might see Teesport given free port status.Anglo American opening a deep mine in the north east and the Tories opening a steelworks.Cycles are funny old things.
  11. "Thanks to years of investment,our CapEx to sales ratio peak is behind us" From Telefonica's results today.As iv been saying about the next cycle the above is key and ignored by the market.Increasing prices on falling Capex spend and depreciation means massive increases in free cash. You can buy all of BT,Vodafone,Telefonica and Telia including most of the debt or buy 1/10th of Apple. Iv started to buy Telefonica and Telia.I have a feeling we will see lots of corporate activity in the sector next cycle.Could be more falls still so ladders as usual.
  12. I found this really spooky as i stopped at 127 (women not men).I dont count the ones when on holiday abroad when younger apart from one Irish one who was just lovely.I had periods of say a dozen in between partners,but then had a crazy 5 years from around 30 to 35.I packed in work with a nice house and plenty of money during that time.I used to like going to different parts of the UK so used to look at places i wanted to visit and then look for people there on dating sites.It was a full time job really moving maybe 10 women at a time along the production line from first getting chatting to sharing a Lambert and Butler after relations took place. At one point i even planned a 3 week road trip with 3 different women along the route.It wasnt really about notches though,it was simply enjoying life and enjoying meeting different people.I loved women and loved the subtle differences in them all. I dont regret a minute of it.Met some lovely people,and had some amazing experiences.I also got to visit and stay for free in some lovely places.One nurse in Scotland for instance had a cottage that backed onto the Forth,riding me on a shabby chic chair on the shoreline watching the sun go down over the water in the west.Magic. However i think this girl wasnt actually doing that,she was simply shagging anything she saw without any other kind of interaction.I do think that is an illness in a way.She probably needs to move to Stoke where a certain someone will help her out.
  13. David worked in the same team my friend did at Fidelity.It was the pensions team investing UK blue chip pensions in US assets mostly,hence why my friend was at the then Glaxo,they were getting involved in investing the then 100% DB pension schemes assets.I never met David,and i think at the time he was involved in allocation strategy on the macro roadmaps my friend and others made. What people dont understand is Davids job isnt to time.It isnt even considered.The process was that they would (my friend) provide a macro road map of where they saw the cycle going given all the numbers they had.That was then passed to others to allocate and invest.When David says oil below $10 that will be the extreme he sees on his road map.Hes playing to an audience now and so he simply puts that out there.In reality his road map will have lots of cross market work along that way and turn points.If he was back at Fidelity other parts of the team would be working out how and what and when to buy along that road map.They wouldnt be sat drinking coffee waiting for $8 oil.People reading him also forget the longer term calls of oil at $300+ again maybe slightly high,but again a direction road map. The reason the Fidelity team were the best in the game was because they looked at the longer term macro position and ignored the noise.Looking to today my friend would say things like "i dont care where Tesla is in 3 months,i care where the long bond is in 8 years" The reason?,because where that long bond is will show whats likely happened to different sectors.
  14. People wont be able to go into the specifics really as that would be 100% financial advice.So il say for myself,what im doing. At 55 il put my SIPP (pensions) into draw down and take the 25% tax free cash.Il invest that into my ISA over time.Il then take £12.5k from my pension each year until state pension age when il then take about £4k (whatever it is that + state pension = tax allowance).From 55 until 67 while im drawing down that from my pension the income in my ISA will mostly be re-invested.£12.5k is well enough for me. The only thing to remember is inheritance tax.If you over then it pays to leave the money in the pension as long as possible,but its a tricky choice.(pensions dont count to inheritance tax) If your short of a few years for the state pension,if you have grand children under 12 and your son/daughter earns over £6200 a year you can claim the Specified adult childcare credit ,its for grandparents who look after grandkids.The credit comes from the child benefit so your son/daughter then dont get the ni credit but if earning over £6200 it doesnt matter as they get it of their earnings,im 2 years short and will be claiming it next year and the year after and will keep claiming it in case the government change the 35 years upwards at any time.Its free so might as well. If not go self employed,sole trader,selling on ebay.Sell a few 2nd hand bits (or put sell on Facebook and sell a couple of items easy) and put tax form in at end of year with £100 turnover youl make no profit,then elect to pay the NI class 2 credits within the tax form ,it costs you £160 for a years credit not the £780 cost of buying a year. How you draw down assets is personal and very very tricky. For myself i have a portfolio bigger than my needs (i need £12.5k a year) so will simply withdraw the natural yield from the investments.I pretty much do that at the moment anyway from my ISA. For ordinary people the state pension is very important.I actually think its generous and as long as you have prepared its a fantastic base.Myself i only need about £120 a week on top of the state pension to live very well,within a couple even easier.The problem is they keep pushing it back,so the key is to make your you have enough from 55 until getting it.I would expect to go from now to then with investments intact ,but if i didnt i could still be fine if i reached state pension age with half the assets i have now.
  15. Most of the drive trains and key early components in truck and car manufacture come from Sweden.Those supply chains order those components as they get orders,and so are a few months ahead of the actual manufacturing numbers.A truck maker can produce say 800 trucks a month the same as last month,but forward orders are only 720.Sweden picks that up first.