DurhamBorn

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About DurhamBorn

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  1. Very pleased with the divi cut and investment,and in the right areas.15p base plus extra when cash flow allows is the right way to go.RM have an amazing network and probably the only one that can respond to the need for 24 hour delivery.Looking at the plan thats exactly where the cash is going.RM could and should of squeezed competitors much harder than they have in the past,but i expect they will going forward.I reckon by the end of the next cycle these will be around 800p+ a share.My last ladder didnt hit,but it might still yet. I reckon they will be the only network who will be able to offer the 2nd later delivery and that will clean up among many e-tailers.Of course they need to execute and the unions will need to play ball.
  2. GDX will go up 40% i think this year and downside is max 5% from here.I sold a lot of Endeavour when they ran but have been buying back.Il buy more Royal Mail tomoz if they get whacked on bad results,ladder is £2.04 last one.Lots of classic end of cycle stuff going on.Iv got about 30 stocks now with ladders going.I topped out on VOD this week so thats them full now.I think 6 of the 30 are full.Id always expected that if all ladders hit id be down around 16% before divis,but it looks like it would be 11% now,mainly due to taking some profits on some miners when they ran and selling a few bottom ladders in Standard Life,BAT and Imperial earlier when they ran up.Imperial is back being bought again though.Im very pleased to be building out this portfolio as the stocks im buying are nearly all down 50% from highs,some 75%.I actually thought PEs of 8 were likely before a turn and many are at that now (or under).The market is selling inflation stocks hard ,but the next cycle will be kind to them.I ignore the noise and simply buy when price points are met.
  3. Iv bought some nice M&S shirts this week.3 for £12 delivered from Ebay.Lovely pair of Clarks shoes as well £6.50 delivered.The world is awash with "stuff".Im pretty miffed really it will end as you can live dirt cheap if you do this. Id say Tesco bank pulling out of mortgages.The shrewd know very well what that means margins are too small and will be going up on rates.
  4. Market will keep hitting RM probs as they focus on the downsides and ignore the future.They have the network to do this and it will be returns where they clean up.Companies will offer a return label and people can pop it in a box.Another like VOD who probably need to cut the divi by 30% and use the capital to keep debt low and invest in things like this.This sort of thing will pull the rug from under Hermes/Collect+ etc,but only once it is everywhere.These boxes mean no margin is lost to collection points etc.The market is pricing people who deliver food at PEs of a zillion yet people who deliver everything at PEs of 6.Classic end of cycle stuff.
  5. Even Imperial Brands is paying down debt rather than buy back shares.These heavy cash flow companies know whats coming.Not rolling over debt will make a huge difference going forward.
  6. Hi everyone,havent been on for a bit as really busy.Good to see the debt deflation growing underneath.Vodafone cutting the divi to repay debt faster and Imperial Brands saying they werent buying back shares as they wanted to de-leverage quicker.Iv added to both this week and im very pleased they are doing this.Vod can take credit for the move and its the right one.Shareholders might lose 4% on their yield,but i expect within 10 years Vod will be over £4.00 a share and divis will be back above where they were before the cut by a long way.Expect £10 billion free cash by 2027 and debt below £10billion. These companies have huge free cash flow,yet they can smell the coffee and know its time to pay off debt as it comes due rather than roll over.Many companies wont be around to do the same because they dont have the cash. The miners pulled back hard as expected and now are in a nice buying zone.I expect they will go a little lower,but iv topped all of the ones i want up now.Id rather see another 5% down than miss the 40% up that should be with us (GDX should hit $26 this year).The dollar will trend lower even if there is one last push up,and then down.Gold should start to trend late this month or June wherever it goes before that. My ladders are now 2/3s full on the shares i want for the next cycle (outside of the PM sector) so my capital is now 2/3s invested.Im averaging down 8% after dividends and expected at this amount of ladder hits id be down 12% so it looks like if the last ladders hit il be averaging down 15% in stocks averaging down 68%.If the PMs do run as expected then they should make up for the downside in all my ladder stocks.Very very happy to be getting these prices. Im really struggling with the yellow stickers though.Tesco is changing the times all the time and iv had to go to Sainsbury and pay 50% off instead.Its pushing up my inflation rate.
  7. At $5000 Harmony would 30+ bag i expect.Gold miners tend to x3 the gold price over the short/medium term.In a real full on gold bull though people start to price the oz in the ground.Once that happens the high resource/high cost miners start to shine.We are now in the window where i expect we will see a bottom.It could be in or we could get one more up down,but i expect we will start to trend soon.Just need a sniff of inflation now in the US.
  8. Nope and both sides will invest like crazy against each other.
  9. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pacific-mining-newcrest-harmony-gold/us-allies-propose-financing-for-power-plant-for-papua-new-guinea-gold-mine-idUSKCN1SC0C6 “Infrastructure is the proxy for the greater competition happening between the U.S with its allies and China,” said Nick Bisley, professor of international relations at Melbourne’s La Trobe University. “The U.S. has to deliver on major projects to ensure it doesn’t lose ground on China.” The United States and its allies worry that China is increasing economic aid to the Pacific region to exert influence over vast swathes of resource-rich ocean and international forums like the United Nations.
  10. I find leaving them in a big tub of clean water for a few days is spot on.My local river isnt too bad.Good free food.
  11. Iv found my local small river is full of signal crayfish.A tin of cat food with a couple of puncture holes in the tin inside a crayfish trap gets you dozens of them in a couple of hours.Nobody bothers with it or knows and a good place to put it is only a couple of minutes from a parking spot.Beautiful eating and free.I simply tip them into one of those big plastic storage boxes you get at poundstretcher full of clean water for a couple of days to flush them out a bit.Worth checking out if signals are in your local river and d the same.You can get the traps on Ebay for a few quid.Your supposed to apply for a crayfish license on the Environment Agency website and attach it to the pots,they are free.
  12. Independants win when its anyone but,,,,France will likely be a slow downward collapse.They will be hit hard by a reflation.Rigid economy,old industries etc.
  13. Thats right.Inflation is going to do the job rates should of done.Margins are being crushed in a lot of areas.If you cant front run inflation your in trouble.Council Tax for a band A in my home town is over £1400 a year.Someone now needs to earn nearly £2000 a year on the top of their note just to pay the council tax.The state has and is refusing to take any pain and is instead doing what it always does,try to take everyones assets/wealth.People dont understand how its going.Most are feeling ok due to housing wealth or tax credits etc.Its unlikely,but the government and elite might yet find themselves on the end of a rope,or a few being knocked off.France seems to be first down the road.They arent far away from another revolution.
  14. Go to the hospital on a Saturday tea time with raging toothache.They get you in with an emergency dentist and that way you dont have to pay.Its classed as NHS treatment under the hospital.Only works on a Saturday evening though.Of course only good for a filling or extraction.My NHS dentist has been taken over by BUPA.You used to get a check up and a clean same price.Now the dentist checks you,but then sends you to the hygienist in the next room,up the pay band then to £60 instead of £20 odd.
  15. One of the reasons i put a new boiler in and replaced all windows etc a couple of years ago.I use the Burger King app,really good discounts and they tend to hold them down.The KFC one is also decent,just less choice.