DurhamBorn

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  1. Timeline would be within the next 12 months probably if its to happen.Longer term i see silver at $200 if we do get a full on reflation.There are lots of moving parts at the moment though and the markets will throw off as many people as possible.
  2. @sancho panza i asked a woman directions to get back onto the main road as it was like a maze and she was pretty much asking me to hers for a coffee.Maybe she wanted to have a talk on debt deflations and the future silver bull market.
  3. Exactly.Dont forget a lot of probates are going to flood the market as well soon.Given a lot of those will be from people in their 40s and 50s with big debt problems of their own it will see quick falls.I was in the Boro yesterday.I went into a council estate to avoid paying at the hospital and it was brutal.Saw about 3 people walking about.Went in a local cafe for a sarnie,a few single mums in with the usual tribe of tax credit kids never seen a days work.It was like a scene from a zombie film.
  4. Yes in a silver bull with the right management an easy 5 bagger id expect so a good deal for Pan American.I dont get into the merits mostly of the companies on my rubber band list,i just buy a spread of them.Its a shame Tahoe have been taken out really at this stage,but shows Pan America have a board that knows when to strike.They can wait as long as it takes with a quality asset now.
  5. They were number 2 on my rubber band list and about a 25% profit from the day they were put on here.In the future that will likely look like a steal for Pan American.Now the question is how under valued are the other silver miners?.
  6. Most of my biggest mistakes have been selling,not buying.In the tech boom i sold a company i doubled my money on,within a week my friend phoned me at work with the words you lucky bastard have you seen Staffware.They had gone from £5 to about £45.I felt sick.Selling a week early cost me about £60k.Rolls Royce bought at 80p and sold at £1.40,only to go over £10,Whitbread bought at about £5 and sold half my stake at £8 (kept the rest until last year). What iv learned since starting investing at 14 is step back and be patient.Before you understand a company,understand a cycle.Where are we?,more ,where are we going?.Politics and macro conditions go in cycles.The irony is,the longer a cycle lasts,the more people expect it to last,to the point most dont even consider it a cycle.This dis-inflation has been long,very long.1982.People now dont even consider that because they see the ups and downs along the way.They tend to base their thoughts on when the markets go down as a change,it isnt. A western market economy doesnt go under,it changes.The last cycle (that is ending right now before our eyes) favoured consumption over investment.Asset companies were not rewarded for investing.They invested to survive.Consumption companies were rewarded.They found a cheap source of products in China and started with 140% margins.Those margins are now about 10% and falling and anyone indebted high is probably already in negative cashflow.People bought houses instead of investing in other real assets and thought themselves experts as houses increased due to rates falling.That will rewind as rates go to new highs in the next cycle.What is old becomes new again.The people buying now on high leverage are making a life changing mistake.Massive interest payments ahead,or they go under and cant buy again.People in their 50s who think houses are pensions are in for a massive shock.There will be no equity release soon outside of maybe the top 10% of houses/values. We are at a key inflection point and for myself i think it might be the first of two more i will see if i live to an average age.Debt is going to create so much financial dislocation that very few will be able to take advantage of whats ahead,and even less will understand the cycle coming. Asset companies who have managed to stay profitable at the end of this cycle will be huge gainers in the next.Inflation is going to flow direct to their free cash flow and eat away their debts (as long as they have a good maturity profile).Buying is tricky and a stair case is always the best option,but selling for me is probably 7 years+ away.There will be some mistakes along the way of course,some big ones,but i fully expect most people on this thread will come out well ahead of the herd and the general population.If not then its all here in this thread for people to say how wrong we were.Interesting times.
  7. Lots of cross market Harley on our currency calls and a lot of lead and lag work on liquidity flows.Gold and silver are clear longer term.I have no idea how we get there,but im pretty certain a bull market is close in the metals and prepared to take hits before we get there rather than not be positioned.Of course calls can and do fail hence having a balanced portfolio. I can actually see a case for 74 on the dollar,but thats stretching liquidity flows to extremes without causing a worldwide debt deflation.
  8. Il be adding some,i added a few other silver miners yesterday that im stair casing into (Endeavour Majestic).Im actually hoping they can stay down a while as im SIPPing my salary from my new job each month and its mostly going into silver miners .Im taking home the tax allowance only.Il be buying them as long as i keep this job (max 18 months) or they shoot higher.one of the main reasons i took this job was to buy more as PMs had reached the % limit in my portfolio and i wouldnt break allocation rules.Im classing buying from going to work seperate as if they went to zero id simply lose a year or so's getting out of my chair (and still taking tax allowance as wages). Just a quick note from Vods results today "our EBIT improved as out depreciation lowered".Thats the thing to watch in a reflation from asset heavy companies,and it should expand a lot more as inflation starts to run hot a few years out.
  9. The dollar index has touched my top target today and my figures show it going down to 85 from here.Interesting to see if that call works out as its pretty much opposite what the market sees.Roadmap says dollar 85 gold $1500+,Silver $22.Those seem crazy calls right now,but iv been buying some more silver miners shares today (Endeavour and Majestic). Lots more sectors here in the UK getting hit hard.Gambling companies seem to be the last lot to get whacked down.The likes of William Hill and Playtech down over 50% now from highs. Our bear seems to be going sector by sector.It will be very interesting to see if we continue to fall as the US does or not.Tobacco taking a big whack today. Debt to GDP in the US is now at 240% where just before the Great Depression it was at 180%.A debt deflation and/or massive inflation are the only ways out.BTL and housing still look the most likely place for the pain in the UK.
  10. One Chinese takeaway in Birtley where me uncle goes has changed hands around 6 times in ten years,each time lost in gambling to each other.The one near me makes around £3k a week profit,i know the daughter,the dad is still running it aged 70,reason being over 40 years he has lost all the profits in the casino.
  11. Indeed,and almost all of it fixed at coupons that will look crazy low in a reflation.2%,1.5%,3% etc.The key to them is when the debt comes due.They will have to re-finance into a much higher rate picture.The big amounts come due around 2025+ etc.I would expect free cash flow to be hitting around £10 billion by then and them to be financing most of the bond repayments through free cash.They might end up re-financing around half the debt only. The bond holders will get fleeced of course,they have in affect funded the network for equity holders for almost free.I dont expect the dividend to do much and might even be cut,but as debt is repaid id expect the equity price to move up strongly.These type of stocks are the type that do very well in a reflation,as long as they use the quickly growing cash flow to repay debt and not fund dividend increases.They dont want to get to 2025 and be re-financing all debt because rates will be sky high.As ever a stair case in as part of a balanced portfolio as there will be failures along the way.It should be noted Vodafone dont have legacy issues like massive pension deficits,and the stink the other telcos are kicking up about the Liberty deal says Vodafone have outflanked them.Its them that will have to fund a massive optical fibre network during a reflation and paying rates 3 times higher on the debt than Vodafone.
  12. By late spring id guess.A lot depends on if the Fed give out less hawkish vibes and that spurs things up and then the Fed tighten again into that.I fully expect the PM miners to run very hot through the last stages of the equity bull and as it moves through the early stages of the bear.Usually the industrial and semi conductor sectors experience a final blow out run.I think thats likely along with the PMs. The UK market is interesting as we have already been smashed down (huge falls in sterling terms in many stocks) so we might see some sectors do ok (having already fallen hard over several years) while others tank. Stair case in to decent quality companies with good free cash flow is how im doing things at the moment.Most of what im slowly buying is down 50%+ from highs.Outside of the PM miners id be happy if i ended up under water 15% when things turned back around at some point.
  13. S+P might go to 3300+ in a blow off top.The industrial's,Semi-conductors and the PM miners should be the big winners from here until the bear really gets going.
  14. My worry is the big boys will destroy them all.Centrica and the like are much better at hedging than the little guys.In a reflation energy will spike hard and lots of smaller players will be caught out.In a relfation the money will be back along the chain.Distributed energy,production and transmission etc.
  15. Two of my daughters friends both went for HTB,one last year,one just signed up .Both could of bought a nice terrace for £80k,or decent semi's for £120k.They could easily of saved deposits.Instead they have lease cars,holidays that make my eyes water and credit cards etc.The 2nd one has bought in Darlington.The estate is shocking.Tiny roads,zero space and 20% already social housing.4 bed £170k+ HTB loan.They will be in negative equity from day 1 and i expect £70k negative soon.No way out.They earn £50k in pretty secure jobs,but a very big chunk of their earnings will be going on mortgage when rates hit 6%+