DurhamBorn

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  1. Shares might fall 50%,but bond yields might go up 80%-300%.The pension obligations are about to be inflated away.Lots of schemes have introduced maximum 5% uplifts etc so once inflation runs over that the liability is cut.People are going to live as long as the trustees are pricing for,so some big schemes might even see a windfall for the company.
  2. He had a great team at Invesco behind him.The fact he invested so much in the AA when it was obvious to anyone the company had ridiculous debt levels should of been enough.The irony is he had a decent portfolio at first to provide income,as it was supposed to do,but he slowly sold the decent stuff to fund rights issues in basket cases.He sold BAT at £50,but instead of maybe buying Vod,or some other blue chip divi payer he bought the likes of Capita,Saga and funding rights issues at Kier.I kept reading on his site about the macro picture,saying the UK would be strong when China went down.The problem is as usual he ignored the leads and lags on that.If he had kept in the stronger stocks he could of used some of the dividends to buy as the shares fell,but he got in a right old mess,
  3. Imperial has bounced 15% from its lows.The market talked the sector down so they could get it cheap,like they always do.They put a mask on and robbed the likes of those who own Woodford Equity who paid £30+ for their shares and sold below £20. I havent had much time to run any of my macro data for a about 8 months,mainly as my ladders are already in place,plus all my work was on the PM sector.However iv done a little bit last night,and i think the UK might get an inflation jump very soon.The leads and lags on my sterling chart are flashing red for the window when the falls feed into prices.Cross market work i use on this one says things have now converged.Its highly likely we are about to see inflation move higher while a debt deflation builds.Interest rates might go up soon in the UK.Brexit is taking peoples eyes off the ball.If the BOE did cut on a no deal,it wouldnt last long. Inflation and/or rate increases are going to really hit home moving into autumn.I expect telcos and retailers to increase prices and get away with it,big ticket items like cars will have the rug pulled.The window is going to close soon for people to roll over debt,and i expect finance for new projects will be hard to come by,meaning incumbents will be able to crank up prices.The reflation is underway,and its running alongside the debt deflation,people just havent noticed yet. Lets see if inflation starts to crank up as we move into autumn as my charts are saying.
  4. I think the sector (and the gambling sector) will see lots of mergers and will become cash cows for investors.It wouldnt shock me to see investors buying now seeing 20% dividends on their initial investment by 2028ish.Hated sector right now,but one i consider one of the bedrocks of my portfolio for the last 3rd of my life.
  5. On Royal Mail my bottom ladder is up 18% even though im down on them.Id be happy if that was the bottom,but if not iv got another ladder in at £1.64p.This is what im interested in going forward. https://www.royalmailgroup.com/en/press-centre/press-releases/royal-mail-group/royal-mail-starts-work-on-state-of-the-art-north-west-hub-as-part-of-network-extension/ The board was right to cut the dividend.This sort of investment is critical ready for the next cycle.RM will have good pricing power as the cycle gets going.The likes of Amazon will have very little control over what RM charge them,though people dont seem to understand that bit.My prediction is RM will outperform Amazon by 200%+ including dividends by the back end of the next cycle.So Amazon is $1950,RM £2.20 ,Amazon $980 billion market cap,RM £2.2 billion market cap. 3% hopefully of my portfolio if last ladder hit.If im down on if for years,couldnt care less.2028 is my road map target for it .
  6. Exactly,and the right course,they are securing really low coupons at long range.Those bond holders are ending up passing their capital to equity holders,they just dont know it yet.
  7. And who will manage to get new bond sales away when they need to in that scenario.One of the key things i see ahead is exactly that.Its why i think its crucial the companies you buy now have strong cash flow and a well spread debt profile.Vod should always get a bond away,but at what coupon?.Having the choice of not rolling over and paying from cash flow will be crucial.Bond funds will be terrible investments in the next cycle for the very reason you say.
  8. Couldnt agree more Harley and its vital advice.I make plenty of mistakes myself,mostly around timing not selection,hence why i focus more and more on a road map and buy in ladders.That takes away a lot of the problems timing.I time,but its less critical to me.Iv learned the hard way over 30+ years of investing that the key is to make capital and slowly build it into blue chip shares when they are undervalued and collect the dividends for a long time. Iv seen a lot of comments about being down on Centrica etc.Im down on Centrica yet it doesnt even register to me.I own 2% of my portfolio in it and im down about 27%.Harmony delivered 6x in profit the loss on Centrica.Royal Mail im down 24%,but im up 53% on Go Ahead,thats before dividends.Down 5% on Card factory,up 23% on BAT Tobacco (again).These numbers have no meaning to me.Im building out a portfolio for the next 10 years and the question to me then is simply this.Has it delivered above inflation.Thats first.2nd is has it outperformed a FTSE 100 tracker.Most of my biggest winners have had big fat reds next to them during the buying period.That is normal due to the fact im a macro contrarian in that i buy sectors and companies that are hated,but my macro road map says should have an easier cycle ahead,or their discounted cash flow should deliver above average dividends. The ultimate aim of investing should be to secure cash flow from dividends to retire on and perhaps some slight capital selling.I see a long term dividend of 6% + 3% increases in it as success and thats what i aim for.During this cycle turn i sold BAT at £50,bought HMY at $1.54,sold some HMY at $2.24 and bought back BAT at £24 that i will no hold for 8 years +.Busy at the moment,but in a year or so its likely il go whole years with maybe 2 or 3 buys or partial sells,or maybe no trades at all.In basic terms,if someone made £2k profit on HMY,nothing wrong with selling, splitting that profit 3 ways,buying Imperial Brands,Royal Mail and Stagecoach and collecting the dividends for the next 20 years and ignoring the short term movements.
  9. Like i said at the start of the thread here and the other place,we have entered a distribution cycle.Remember as well what this means with the leads and lags.That money being pulled from property funds now,means less investment in property assets,meaning the price of rents will be stable as the next cycle unfolds.The key as ever is to get the asset cheap and not leveraged (or in property not too much leverage).Distribution cycles are very difficult to invest in,hence why trackers will likely do badly.Solid cash flow divi payers should outperform if they are exposed to sectors than can keep up with inflation.
  10. 10x potential,not bothered how risky they are.So the likes of Harmony,Sibanye,the smaller silver miners etc likely il keep around 10% of my portfolio in them.Im already up more than that on having sold a lot.Iv sold some 3 times since 2016 including Endeavour,Harmony,Yamana,Eldorado,Sibanye etc.I still think there is big potential for a big fall back in the miners and if so i would go back up to 20% of my portfolio as the reflation cycle gets underway.
  11. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49053383 Lets not forget another part of the reflation is protection and military spending.The above is a prime example of whats ahead.I expect we will be getting a bigger navy,frigates and destroyers maybe.
  12. Nothing wrong with doing that.100% gain is never to be sniffed out.Iv owned Eldorado three times and its been very kind.Whacked me for 50% down at one point this time,but i laddered in as usual and its been a perfect rubber bander.
  13. You could always sell your original capital and ride the rest free.Iv sold around 40% of my miners,but i had nearly 6 figures invested and i made 2 years net salary and 6 years living expenses in two months.I had 22% of my portfolio + 100% of my salary going into my SIPP for 10 months into PM stocks.Il end up with 10% in silver miners probably by October.My aim is and has been to re-position my portfolio ready for the next cycle.I already have enough to retire and have a decent income (on my lower needs than most) already,so im not aiming for huge increases in wealth.Its hugely important to be hedged though as we transition cycles.Plus there is a very good chance generational wealth could be made in the miners so iv already got a few marked out that im going to ride all the way to 2027 from here.Iv taken profits in most of those,but intend to hold the rest. Iv very happy with how we have all done.A lot of work went into things,and it proved very rewarding.
  14. Same here,helps i build engines for a living as well.I didnt get laid off today 60 people did though.Just the start of course.Saving money is never off topic on this thread you know that.I got 3 packs of 5% steak mince for 62p a pack the other night.Having mince pie dinner for tea.Just insured my 2nd car £201 for the year.I like having a spare car as i can fix any problems on one while driving the other,bit like when younger and having two birds on the go,
  15. Very true.I think in life a lot of people get behind the curve early and simply never get ahead.I working with a couple of young guys under 22 and they are earning £33k a year + pension.Thats a very high wage in the North east,both live at home and both have spent every penny in two years and worse also have expensive lease cars now.At the same age i saved and invested 70% of my wages.You can get a terrace house up here for £70k a good one.They should of easily saved £40k in two years and could now be a single guy in his own place with a £30k mortgage that they can pay off easily over the next few years. The problem i see out there is nobody,and i mean nobody has any understanding of money.The government has got them all right where it wants them.Slaves to debt,slaves to consumption and where that leads.Working until 60+,maybe 68. From a selfish point we should be pleased of course.The reason i can buy a £500 solid oak cabinet to stand my TV on for £70 on Facebook marketplace,the reason i could buy a £300 pushchair for the grandkids for £30 etc is because of this lack of understanding and want for new all the time.