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sancho panza

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  1. I'm jsut looking at our PM holdings and msotly across the board still well ahead. We sold some in late August/early Sept and I'm still waiting for a re entry point for the original capital(profits went into big oilies) Think your right on another low needed.Besdies BVN,OR,EGO,OGC(risky) there's not much value out there.Even then,with the exception of OGC we're in much lower than today,so there's little incentive As per my chart last night.I don't see gold givning mjuch up over the next 6 months at least.We know the new year is going to bring stimulus whoever gets in.
  2. You've nailed it right there in bold CP.That's what I've been missing.I'm looking at the macro and wondering how he's seeing what he's seeing because he seems convinced-and for once I'm headed in the other direction completely.He doesn't do deep dives into the EIA demand/supply data,he watches the insiders. Kaplan has great ideas(primarily what I use him for) but he's been very persistent in calling the dollar bottom of late,which I'm jsut not seeing,hence my open question.You're right as well on him calling the Bear market from the RUT turn being wrong and that he overly focuses on retai
  3. I rememeber an earlier chart psoted on here,showing coal demand dropped briefly around 2010 but is already back past where it is. That coal forecast is simpyl incredible but goes to prove that if you're looking at Western Europe you're not looking East.
  4. I wouldn't be amazed.I think there's a fair degree of 'if you don't open your eyes,you can't see it', going on in the UK(most likely Western world)banks.If corporations are making their monthyl interest payments,not too many questions are getting asked. As I've said previously,the real weakness in the FRB system is that when the music stops it simply can't sustain itself without credit demand to keep asset prices up. As you say JT,these LL's are unable to reduce rents because it would call into question the collateral base but also because on a cashflow basis,other tenants would like
  5. Yeah I did,there's been a lot of talk of dollar bottoms except on this thread.kaplan normally has pretty good medium term timing(called the bottom in Dec18 perfectly,but I read his stuff and I jsut wonder what he's looking at when he's saying buy the dip in TLT. Absolutely,and that's before we start thinking about supply/demand equaitons in commodities which due to low prices this year will have a negative effect on supply going forward a ear or two depending how hard they are to get at. If we look back at 08 and the run up to that,dollar weakness played the key role driving commo
  6. go down the page and @Cattle Prod instruction on what to do are there.any probs jsut post em. I have to sleep but gonna be dreaming about that last chart
  7. Look at the tail end of gold and M2........that's uncanny.It's as if someone telegrpahed the move to GLD buyers(insto demand shot up ahead of covid iirc).Calling @Errol Oil is keeping up with CPI...jsut. Gas below CPI in the US................... I was thining earlier of offloading top ladders in big oilies but looking at these charts maybe not. SOmething is about to go badly wrong for the CB's methinks.
  8. somethings gotta give and I'm not sure it's going to be the gold price............. CP,have you got a take on DXY here?Do you see oil price rises as supply deficits compounded by dollar weakness,or do you see the dollar weakness compounded by supply deficits? does it matter? I've been unerved by Kaplans call on DXY strength,I jsut don't see it,Looking to backtest my thesis as @Loki sobservation earlier.
  9. this graph really shows @DurhamBorn call on gas looks incredible here.maybe people see these charts differently but gas has been very cheap for a long time.
  10. gold price divided by ten. Does make you wonder if we're about to see the motehr of all oil bull markets........ another angle but the same view
  11. Its been weakening markedly the last few days.Any particualr reason? Off topic
  12. We (ie those basement dwellers on this thread) can't be the only ones sat there for the last two years seeing this implosion coming. Let's be honest,anyone who can look the growth trend in online shopping and continue drawing the line roughly upwards at a diagonal of 30% eg my 4 year old,could have foreseen this mess.Covid has jsut turned 10 years of 'degrowth' into one. I agree on the bad banks,but UK gubbermint is loaded to the gills with a lot of otehr problems,not sure there'll be the ability to plug the hole below sea level.
  13. and another.You do jsut wonder who's got these assets sat on their balance sheet marked to model. Devil in the detail.......................................Fitch in the frame on this one. https://wolfstreet.com/2020/11/30/vacancy-rate-at-iconic-manhattan-tower-with-899-apartments-hits-26-this-example-shows-how-fast-massive-the-exodus-has-been/ Vacancy Rate at Iconic Manhattan Tower with 899 Apartments Hits 26%: This Shows How Fast & Massive the Exodus Has Been The iconic “New York by Gehry” 76-story tower on 8 Spruce Street in the Financial District of
  14. Two Wolf St posts here,similar subject.All roads are leading to a credit deflation in CRE I jsut can't believe media commentators aren't talking about the looming write downs in CRE because they shiould be.And that's without HSBC losing a shedload in Hong Kong. https://wolfstreet.com/2020/12/01/just-in-time-for-holiday-shopping-season-uk-fashion-giant-arcadia-crashes-into-bankruptcy/ One of the UK’s largest brick-and-mortar fashion retailers, Arcadia, has crashed into administration, becoming the country’s biggest corporate casualty of the Pandemic so far, according to its admin
  15. My reading is much less nuanced.I watch the price every day I'm on here.And over the last couple of weeks,we've jsut not had the downdrafts you'd expect with this sort of run up.But then that's hardly surprising given how much it had sold off.I've run into a few middle class types calling the death of oil lately because Bozo Bozza wants us all out of cars by 2030,rather overlooking the fact there's 7 bn people in the world,99% of whom don't live in his fiefdom.Just looking the wrong way at a crucial intersection. We know Chinese demand is back up and running,India too.We can see the drawd
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