sancho panza

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  1. https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/almost-four-in-ten-agents-anticipate-revenue-drop-as-tenant-fee-ban-approaches/ Almost four in ten agents are expecting a drop in lettings revenue next year, Zoopla claims. The figures come as agents face the prospect of the tenant fee ban being introduced during 2019. Zoopla found that 38% of the 600 agents polled are anticipating a drop in lettings revenue, in part because of the fee ban but also over concerns about the number of rental properties coming to market. Despite the concerns among agents, demand from tenants appears to be strong. Zoopla’s State of the Property Nation report found that the number of tenants saying they are using letting agents to find a place to live has increased by 12 percentage points in the past year. Almost half, 48% of tenants, used a letting agent to source accommodation this year, up from the 36% recorded in the 2017 edition of the report. Of the 6,000 people surveyed for the report, 62% said they expect to rent for at least the next three years. Of these, 23% said they are likely to rent indefinitely. Meanwhile, the proportion of home owners letting out properties rose from 2.4% in 2016 to 4.2% this year. Charlie Bryant, managing director of Zoopla’s property division, said: “It’s certainly a challenging time for lettings agents with the ban on lettings fees looming. However, our research shows that demand for agents’ services and rented accommodation are strong, and that should come as a welcome boost. “As the market becomes more regulated and complex, the lettings agents that adopt a more consultative approach with both their landlord and their tenant clients to help navigate them through will gain an advantage.”
  2. sancho panza

    The dud Kangaroo bounce thread

    Change looks imminent.ABC have withdrawn teh stat,link below 'But Ms Fanaika — along with hundreds of thousands of renters across Queensland — could now benefit from changing rental laws, with the State Government likely to introduce landmark reforms to the state's tenancy act by the middle of next year. After an extensive nine-week feedback process, about 130,000 responses were submitted to the State Government about what should change, from making pet ownership in rental properties easier, to capping rental price increases. Tenants Queensland CEO Penny Carr said after four decades of little significant change to the legislation, it needed an overhaul.' Interesting they claim 2.1 mn landlords and then if you tally the figures you get over 1,555,804(could be higher given some people may own tens of houses,population 24.6mn so 10 mn households say.That'sa lot of people in rented. https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/12/10/first-home-buyers-factcheck-did-more-people-buy-their-seventh-home-than-their-first/ The New Daily contacted Mr de Brenni’s office for clarification. “The statistics referenced in that quote were misinterpreted from a Misha Zelinski article for the Huffington Post,” a spokesperson for the minister told The New Daily. “The quote has now been removed from the relevant ministerial media statement, and we have contacted the ABC to get it removed from their article.” The figures show that 104,068 first home buyers were approved for home loans in 2017 compared to 558,503 non-first-home buyers. How many Australians own rental properties? The most recently available ATO data shows that around 2.1 million Australians owned rental properties in 2015-16. Of those investors, around 1.5 million owned one rental home, 396,037 owned two, 122,696 owned three, 45,328 owned four, and 18,880 owned five. And 20,023 investors owned six or more rental homes, according to the ATO. Studies show that the Australian dream of home ownership is “increasingly out of reach” for many. Nearly a third of Australians now rent – 31.3 per cent of the population in 2016, up from 28 per cent in 2001. The transition from renting to home ownership has “become less common”, particularly among younger age groups, the 2018 Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) study shows. According to the ABS, home owners represented 70.6 per cent of all households in 1999-2000, a figure that fell to 67.2 per cent of all households in 2013-14. Home-ownership rates are falling most dramatically among the young and the poor, a study by independent think-tank the Grattan Institute found. “Younger Australians have always had lower incomes and less accumulated savings, and hence lower home-ownership rates,” Grattan Institute fellow Brendan Coates said. “But between 1981 and 2016, home-ownership rates among 25-to-34-year-olds fell from more than 60 per cent to 45 per cent.” At the same time, home ownership also fell for middle-aged households. “For 35-to-44-year-olds, home ownership has fallen fast – from 74 per cent in 1991 to around 62 per cent today – and home ownership is also declining for 45-to-54-year-olds,” Mr Coates said. This suggests that falling home ownership is due to higher dwelling prices rather than changing preferences for home ownership among the young, he said. And there could be be “big consequences” should the trend continue. “Whereas 30 years ago Australians of all income levels had a good chance of owning their home, now only wealthier younger Australians can expect to do so,” Mr Coates said. “We estimate that just over half of retirees will own their own homes in 40 years’ time.” I read it as the latter.Shwos what reams of MSM puff pieces on BTL can do for expectations.
  3. UK market heavily oversold imho.I was filtering my short list yesterday -about 70 UK stocks(although 20 have yet to trigger my long term indicators ( I only fish with the tide)).Couldn't find anything to put money on.I'm conservative admittedly but I think if you go shorting taylor Wimpey et al from here you could well lose your shirt. Lot of juicier US stocks have yet to trip long term downtrends.(Fangman trading is for the brave).Individually,much less of the Dow oversold than FTSE 100 I'm going to look to position my IG ac long for Christmas as I think a few things could be due a decent bounce eg Poodential, and dare I even suggest a trade in the UK housebuilders? They never perform as mathematically as their title implies.Given they've normally options based there's a fair spread normally so liquidity/spread issues may prevent optimum performance.
  4. Just had a cursory look at the income statement and balance sheet.Chunky £800mn loss up to Jun 26,presuming down to some sort of corporate activity.What's the story barnsey? https://www.investing.com/equities/william-hill-balance-sheet Nearly £1bn in goodwill as part of £2.3bn assets.Intagibles £616mn, Total liabilities £1.3bn https://www.investing.com/equities/william-hill-income-statement
  5. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/department-store-spending-13th-month-row/ 'Consumer spending at department stores across the UK has fallen for the 13th consecutive month, according to new data. Barclaycard said spending in department stores during November fell by 7.1 per cent year-on-year, as the sector remains one of the hardest hit by the ongoing challenges plaguing the UK retail industry. Profit warnings from the likes of Debenhams and John Lewis, major restructures, job cuts and store closure announcements from Marks & Spencer, House of Fraser and Debenhams, and weak financial performances across the board have all been brought about by sliding consumer confidence, declining footfall and rising uncertainty around Brexit.'
  6. UK retail suffers worst November footfall decline in 9 years https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/high-street-left-high-dry-footfall-plunges-november/ Black Friday’s increasing dominance as an online-only sales event has meant UK retail endured the biggest drop in footfall for the month of November since 2009. According to the latest Footfall and Vacancies Monitor from the BRC and Springboard, overall footfall in November fell by 3.2 per cent, a dramatic swing from the same month last year when it grew by 0.2 per cent. It also marked the 12th consecutive month of footfall decline. Breaking down the footfall figures between retail location types, the high street suffered a decline of 3.8 per cent while retail park footfall declined 1.4 per cent. This marked four months of consecutive weakening for the high street, and the largest decline since April when it fell by four per cent. For retail parks, it was the deepest drop in footfall since April when it fell by 1.8 per cent. Meanwhile, shopping centre footfall declined by 3.8 per cent, which was a sharper decline relative to the October drop of 3.3 per cent and the decline of 1.3 per cent recorded in November last year. In terms of regions, Northern Ireland sustained its footfall growth of 2.7 per cent, similar to what was recorded in October, and for the second consecutive month it was the only region to show growth. The East, South East and East Midlands experienced the deepest declines of 5.6 per cent, 4.8 per cent and 4.7 per cent, respectively.
  7. UK retail gazzette adds some miseryry : Poundstretcher-pre tax profits of £2mn on £387mn turnover................tell me it ain't so. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/poundstretcher-posts-3rd-consecutive-fall-in-sales/ Poundstretcher has revealed falling turnover and profits for the full year, marking the third consecutive year sales have dropped. For the year to March 31 2018, the discount retailer saw turnover dip 2.5 per cent to £387 million, while its gross profits grew 6.8 per cent to £37.2 million. Over the same period, its pre-tax profits dropped nearly 25 per cent to £2.07 million and its EBITDA fell from £11.2 million in 2017, to £10.7 million. It attributed the significant drop in profits to increased distribution and admin costs, and warned that its activities were affected by the “underlying economic climate”, which included “a number of risks and uncertainties”. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2018/12/flannels-handed-125000-business-rates-relief-prevent-derelict-site/ ' Mike Ashley’s Flannels fascia has been granted £125,000 in business rates relief by a local council in order to prevent one of its sites remaining derelict. Flannels purchased a former nightclub in Doncaster in 2016 with a view to converting it into a new store. However, despite the fashion retailer reporting a £5 million profit on £62 million turnover last year, its head of property halted development of the site – rendering it unusable and meaning Flannels had no obligation to pay business rates. In an effort to restart work on the development and prevent the site from remaining derelict, the local council offered “support” via a business rates lump sum. In 2011, the Local Government Finance Act 1988 was amended to allow local councils to grant discretionary discounts on business rates. Despite their strategy ultimately proving successful, the council said the “help” offered to Flannels might “risk setting a precedent for further retail applications and challenges if they are not supported”.'
  8. heart warming for the people who own the popcorn
  9. Just checked Labour on BF and Yvette |Cooper managing to be 8th on 24 lets us know how weak that field is. Emily Thornberry leads at 7.6. Tories think they've got problems. https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.120629096 Short sterling is the only answer.
  10. I've jsut had a whizz on BF and the top spots all look uninspriing and poor value. Bojo-just not gonna happen Raab-he'll be competitive Sajid-competitive Hunt-maybe 20 years ago Gove-can't see it Rudd-No and her seat will likely be lsot at eht next GE Davis-missed his chance ten years ago Leadsom-had her best shot 2016,failed to beat one of the wrost candidates for the office....ever. Mogg-doesn't want it Geoffrey Cox-never heard of him Mordaunt-could be a surprise Lidington-Never heard of him McVey-no Hammond-not competitive Priti Patel-I think she'd be competitive Tugendaht/Stewart/Williamson/Grieve/Hancoick/Truss/Hinds/Fox/Brokenshire-not competitive Among the also rans are some pontetial outliers Mercer/Kwarteng/Davidson/Gyimah As I've said,not a strong field and could beg thrown wide open.
  11. Roger that, My strategy at the moment is trying to work out all the angles and then pick the most likely course. Both of those reasons you cite,make sense but I don't see them bvringing the tories into a GE.Fisrtly,chance of a majority is very slim.Second,I'm not sure the remianer rump is brave enough to face their memberships(who are mostly Eurosceptic).The latter is the more compelling reason. I think they'll follow your logic and try to mddle on with new leader.If I wasn't paying 25% commission on BF I'd be laying johnson. Have you got a view on where your money would be?Edit to add-I'm clueless on that score at the mo.
  12. If they went now,they'd lose control.Why would they go? I'm open to your logic Dm and here to learn, but I can't see any viable reason for them to do it?
  13. I have a view that Corbyn won't be PM.His main achievemnet has been to make Theresa competitive.Same for her really-I don't/won't vote for either btw.I suspect the Tories will deliver brexit as the option of ducking out just isn't really on the table.And I don't think we'll eb having a GE anytime soon. The first rule of Tory politics is to survive,second to control.They are the giant squid of British politics.Thus I think they'll ditch may as leader,either take a no deal or take a slightly modified one(the EU won't concede much more,talking to my dad who's prop EU and lives over there,the desire to keep us in has waned) and then in a year or 2022 we;'ll get our GE when their new leader has settled in. That's a fair effort even by Thomas Cook standards.
  14. Not long apparently https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/05/san-francisco-house-condo-bubble-prices-fall/ House prices down $265,000 from peak, down $60,000 from year ago. America’s most majestic housing bubble begins to deflate. In San Francisco, the median price of single-family house sales that closed in November fell to $1.435 million. This is down a blistering $265,000 or 15.5% from the crazy peak in February of $1.7 million – a time when only the sky was the limit. And down by $60,000 from November 2017. This puts the median house price below where it had first been in May 2017. Note the steep slope from the peak in February: https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/04/california-housing-market-in-for-serious-trouble-foreign-home-buyers/ Why California’s Housing Market is in for Serious Trouble by Wolf Richter • Dec 4, 2018 • 112 Comments Homebuilder Toll Brothers just said it out loud. High-end homebuilder Toll Brothers, when it announced earnings this morning, made some peculiar comments. Not so peculiar was the plunge in new orders in its fourth quarter, ended October 31: New orders dropped 13.3% from a year ago to 1,715 units. In California, Toll Brothers’ largest market by revenue, new orders plunged 39.4% to just 226 units. Toll Brothers also slashed its guidance for home sales in its fiscal year 2019. This is not so peculiar because I already reported on the drop in new home prices across the US, amid unsold inventory of new homes that has ballooned to 7.4 months supply, the highest since February 2011, toward the end of Housing Bust 1. Here is the peculiar part in its announcement concerning new orders (emphasis added): In-migration: In 2017, a total of 523,000 people moved from other states to California. These are the top states from where people moved to California (data provided by the Census Bureau and real state brokerage Compass) : Texas: 41,000 New York: 34,300 Washington: 33,100 Illinois: 27,100 Arizona: 26,900 Colorado: 25,000 Florida: 24,600 Nevada: 23,800 Out-migration: In 2017, a total of 661,000 moved from California to other states. These are the top destination states for Californians: Texas: 63,200 Arizona: 59,000 Washington: 52,500 Oregon: 50,100 Nevada: 47,500 Florida: 30,900 Colorado: 27,000 New York: 25,000 Great po0dcast from Wolf here.Title tells you what's in it. https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/09/west-coast-housing-bubble-bursts-even-without-tech-bust/ The West Coast Housing Bubble Bursts Even Without Tech Bust, which is still to come.