sancho panza

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  1. errr, no it's not. @DurhamBorn has referenced some long term macro calls from his pal.but this thread is based firmly on the the work of Irving Fisher,Hyman Minsky,Jospeh Schumpeter and a whole host of other good minds Persoanlly I find it slightly demeaning to 300 pages of thought provoking discussion for you to state that Hunter's work dominates it when Fisher published his theory of debt deflation in 1933.Only 86 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irving_Fisher Debt-deflation Further information: Debt deflation Following the stock market crash of 1929, and in light of the ensuing Great Depression, Fisher developed a theory of economic crises called debt-deflation, which attributed the crises to the bursting of a credit bubble. Initially, during the upswing over-confident economic agents are lured by the prospect of high profits to increase their debt in order to leverage their gains. According to Fisher, once the credit bubble bursts, this unleashes a series of effects that have serious negative impact on the real economy: Debt liquidation and distress selling. Contraction of the money supply as bank loans are paid off. A fall in the level of asset prices. A still greater fall in the net worth of businesses, precipitating bankruptcies. A fall in profits. A reduction in output, in trade and in employment. Pessimism and loss of confidence. Hoarding of money. A fall in nominal interest rates and a rise in deflation-adjusted interest rates. Crucially, as debtors try to liquidate or pay off their nominal debt, the fall of prices caused by this defeats the very attempt to reduce the real burden of debt. Thus, while repayment reduces the amount of money owed, this does not happen fast enough since the real value of the dollar now rises ('swelling of the dollar').[23] This theory was largely ignored in favor of Keynesian economics, in part because of the damage to Fisher's reputation caused by his public optimism about the stock market, just prior to the crash. Debt-deflation has experienced a revival of mainstream interest since the 1980s, and particularly with the Late-2000s recession. Steve Keen predicted the 2008 recession by using Hyman Minsky's further development of Fisher's work on debt-deflation. Debt-deflation is now the major theory with which Fisher's name is associated.[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyman_Minsky Minsky proposed theories linking financial market fragility, in the normal life cycle of an economy, with speculative investment bubbles endogenous to financial markets. Minsky stated that in prosperous times, when corporate cash flow rises beyond what is needed to pay off debt, a speculative euphoria develops, and soon thereafter debts exceed what borrowers can pay off from their incoming revenues, which in turn produces a financial crisis. As a result of such speculative borrowing bubbles, banks and lenders tighten credit availability, even to companies that can afford loans, and the economy subsequently contracts. This slow movement of the financial system from stability to fragility, followed by crisis, is something for which Minsky is best known, and the phrase "Minsky moment" refers to this aspect of Minsky's academic work. Minsky's model of the credit system, which he dubbed the "financial instability hypothesis" (FIH),[5] incorporated many ideas already circulated by John Stuart Mill, Alfred Marshall, Knut Wicksell and Irving Fisher.[6] "A fundamental characteristic of our economy," Minsky wrote in 1974, "is that the financial system swings between robustness and fragility and these swings are an integral part of the process that generates business cycles."[7] Minsky argued that a key mechanism that pushes an economy towards a crisis is the accumulation of debt by the non-government sector. He identified three types of borrowers that contribute to the accumulation of insolvent debt: hedge borrowers, speculative borrowers, and Ponzi borrowers. The "hedge borrower" can make debt payments (covering interest and principal) from current cash flows from investments. For the "speculative borrower", the cash flow from investments can service the debt, i.e., cover the interest due, but the borrower must regularly roll over, or re-borrow, the principal. The "Ponzi borrower" (named for Charles Ponzi, see also Ponzi scheme) borrows based on the belief that the appreciation of the value of the asset will be sufficient to refinance the debt but could not make sufficient payments on interest or principal with the cash flow from investments; only the appreciating asset value can keep the Ponzi borrower afloat. If the use of Ponzi finance is general enough in the financial system, then the inevitable disillusionment of the Ponzi borrower can cause the system to seize up: when the bubble pops, i.e., when the asset prices stop increasing, the speculative borrower can no longer refinance (roll over) the principal even if able to cover interest payments. As with a line of dominoes, collapse of the speculative borrowers can then bring down even hedge borrowers, who are unable to find loans despite the apparent soundness of the underlying investments.[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schumpeter Schumpeter criticized John Maynard Keynes and David Ricardo for the "Ricardian vice." According to Schumpeter, Ricardo and Keynes reasoned in terms of abstract models, where they would freeze all but a few variables. Then they could argue that one caused the other in a simple monotonic fashion. This led to the belief that one could easily deduce policy conclusions directly from a highly abstract theoretical model. In this book, Joseph Schumpeter recognized the implication of a gold monetary standard compared to a fiat monetary standard. In History of Economic Analysis, Schumpeter stated the following: "An 'automatic' gold currency is part and parcel of a laissez-faire and free-trade economy. It links every nation's money rates and price levels with the money-rates and price levels of all the other nations that are 'on gold.' The entrepreneur disturbs this equilibrium and is the prime cause of economic development, which proceeds in cyclic fashion along several time scales. In fashioning this theory connecting innovations, cycles, and development, Schumpeter kept alive the Russian Nikolai Kondratiev's ideas on 50-year cycles, Kondratiev waves. Schumpeter believed that capitalism would gradually weaken by itself and eventually collapse. Specifically, the success of capitalism would lead to corporatism and to values hostile to capitalism, especially among intellectuals. "Intellectuals" are a social class in a position to critique societal matters for which they are not directly responsible and to stand up for the interests of other classes. Intellectuals tend to have a negative outlook of capitalism, even while relying on it for prestige, because their professions rely on antagonism toward it. The growing number of people with higher education is a great advantage of capitalism, according to Schumpeter. Yet, unemployment and a lack of fulfilling work will cause intellectual critique, discontent and protests. Parliaments will increasingly elect social democratic parties, and democratic majorities will vote for restrictions on entrepreneurship. Increasing workers' self-management, industrial democracy and regulatory institutions would evolve non-politically into "liberal capitalism". Thus, the intellectual and social climate needed for thriving entrepreneurship will be replaced by some form of "laborism". This will exacerbate "creative destruction" (a borrowed phrase to denote an endogenous replacement of old ways of doing things by new ways), which will ultimately undermine and destroy the capitalist structure. Schumpeter suggested a model in which the four main cycles, Kondratiev (54 years), Kuznets (18 years), Juglar (9 years) and Kitchin (about 4 years) can be added together to form a composite waveform. I'd be careful of anyone using records of returns to sell subs.Better to understand how their portfolio is constructed and whether returns have been flattered by one of two big trades.eg many high yield portfolios blew up ni 08 as they were full of banks. DYOR for systemized but maybe start with understanding some apects of technical analysis susch as long term mvoing averages Agree.There's plenty of space in this forum for other threads with different theses.
  2. Bonmarche issues 3rd profit warning as shares dip 14% https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/03/bonmarche-issues-3rd-profit-warning-shares-dip-14/ Bonmarche has issued its third profit warning in just six months, saying it would suffer a bigger loss than anticipated this year following tough trading in March. The British fashion retailer said it previously expected an underlying loss of up to £4 million, but is now expecting up to £5 million and £6 million.
  3. I don't follow him and I'm not on the guest list either and I'm not that bothered about it .I make my own calls for us as a family taking in the views of lots of different people.Not least some on here who've changed my opinion on things. There's a decent record of posters on here declaring interests either long or short when making comments where a conflict has arisen. I will declare a subscription to Steve kaplan-True Contrarian-worth every penny of the $200 p.a..I tried it initialy after reading him when @DurhamBorn led us to him on here. Took a three month and found that he does a lot of teh legwork in terms of market research that I would do.I'm busy,time poor(kids,Mrs P, Mama P and wider family,job etc) I must say I don't particularly follow his tips(he invests in a wide range of ETF's) but that's not what I use him for and I don't try and time market turns off him alone.But I clearly do try and time market/company turns.........................I'd be lying if I said I didn't. http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/ I will also declare a subscription to IKN as hattipped by @kibuc.Comes in at $40 a month.Wouldn't say worth every penny but it does what I needed it to in terms of backing up my attempts to invest across the precious metals mining sector,educate me some on what to look for, market whispers,avoid pump n dumps.His actual tips are weighted by quality so not equal wiehgt,his returns have been mixed over the years but his research is incredibly detailed and he's clearly very committed to his work and the yellow metal.I do use his tips sometimes but not religiously as I mix with my own research as is often recommended on hre. I have actually used some of the reccomendatiosn for companies on here from @kibuc @Majorpain @DurhamBorn for which I've thanked them previously. As ever it's DYOR. https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/ Most tipsheets/newsletters are crap,regurgitating the comapny accounts and the lucky ones invest in Apple at $1 and then are top of the returns list for fifteen years as a result.Hulberts Digest collates some data. Personally,I'm happy to pay for research a) if it's what I want b) if it's good enough.Most buy and sell notes from most brokers are utter garbage and you'df be better off buying a index/sector ETF and using long term moving averages Jsut my views.Appreciate your several points across several posts as they've made me think about things. Edit to add:I will probably keep the kaplan running long term.IKN will probably skip once we're fully invested in the sector as when we sell,we'll be selling the lot in a oner.
  4. I';ve set up a separate thread where on bricks n mortar retial. key poitns here in terms of debt deflation isjob losses, withdfrawal of credit,free rent failed to save them(and therfore the loans that sit behind vast CRE empires).
  5. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/03/1200-jobs-at-risk-as-office-outlet-falls-into-administration/ The future of 1200 jobs at Office Outlet has been plunged into uncertainty as the retailer fell into administration. Partners at Deloitte were appointed joint administrators yesterday. All 90 of Office Outlet’s stores will continue trading while the business is marketed to potential new owners. “In addition to a general downturn in trading as a result of the ongoing decline in the stationery market and UK retail in general, the company has recently experienced a reduction in credit from key suppliers, given the economic outlook which has severely impacted the financial position of the company,” joint administrator Richard Haws said. “We are hopeful a buyer can still be found for the business in the coming weeks and we will continue to trade the business with that aim in mind.” The news comes after Office Outlet launched a CVA last August, which saw a handful of store shut down as well as three years of free rent on 20 others. However, the CVA failed to save the retailer, which has reportedly had trouble scraping together rent for its estate of more than 90 stores ahead of the due date on Friday. US-based stationery giant Staples agreed to sell its UK shops to Hilco Capital, the former owner of HMV, in late 2016. The stores were then renamed Office Outlet, while a separate online business continues to operate separately and independently in the UK under the name Staples. Office Outlet chief executive Chris Yates said: “Over the last two years the business has been transformed from the heavily loss-making old Staples business to a near break-even modern multichannel retailer. “However, additional growth capital was required to continue delivery of the next stage of the management buyout business plan. “Despite being highly impressed by the Office Outlet story potential investors have held back due to retail sector sentiment and the general level of uncertainty.” Office Outlet’s collapse is another disappointment for Hilco, after the investment firm was forced to place HMV into administration late last year. The music retailer was eventually sold to Canadian music business Sunrise Records, resulting in the closure of 27 locations including the original Oxford Street branch.
  6. not collapsing jsut en route. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/03/kingfisher-plans-15-store-closures-profits-slide/ B&Q parent company Kingfisher has said it is considering closing down 15 stores group-wide while announcing its search for a new chief executive. The multinational DIY retailer also said it is planning to close 19 Screwfix stores in Germany. Kingfisher chief executive Veronique Laury is expected to remain on the board while a successor is found as the company as not yet announced a date for resignation. Meanwhile, 15 stores are due to be shut over the next two years and Germany’s store closures will leave it Screwfix with an online-only store. The news follows Kingfisher’s report of its pre-tax profits crashing 52.8 per cent to £322 million for the year to January 11. On an underlying basis, pre-tax profits declined by 13 per cent to £693 million. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/03/john-lewis-partnership-weekly-sales-continue-drag/ John Lewis Partnership’s weekly update has revealed another slip in overall sales, although it was still a marked improvement on the decline it recorded last week. For the week ending March 16, weekly sales at the retail group decreased by 1.2 per cent year-on-year, from £206.37 million down to £203.83 million. This compares to last week when weekly sales took a 8.9 per cent hit. https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/03/1200-jobs-at-risk-as-office-outlet-falls-into-administration/ The future of 1200 jobs at Office Outlet has been plunged into uncertainty as the retailer fell into administration. Partners at Deloitte were appointed joint administrators yesterday. All 90 of Office Outlet’s stores will continue trading while the business is marketed to potential new owners.
  7. https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/house-prices-fall-faster-than-during-global-financial-crisis/news-story/1717ddae11fca3b4063f166c491d7f87 Australian property prices are falling at a faster rate than during the global financial crisis (GFC) with new figures showing the decline is widening outside the Sydney and Melbourne markets. The Australia Bureau of Statistics released figures today showing house prices in capital cities fell 2.4 per cent in the December quarter to record a total drop of 5.1 per cent in 2018. This compares with the annual fall of 4.6 per cent in 2009 during the GFC. Sydney prices lost 3.7 per cent to the three months to December for the sixth consecutive quarter loss and were down 7.8 per cent for the year.
  8. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-19/house-prices-abs-december-quarter-2018/10915740 Australian property values fell $133.1 billion in the December quarter, with capital city home prices down an average of 2.4 per cent across the nation. Key points: Australian capital city home prices fell an average of 5.1pc over the past year Sydney (-7.8pc) and Melbourne (-6.4pc) led the annual residential property price falls BIS Oxford Economics says the current price falls in Sydney and Melbourne are about twice as fast as historical averages Figures from the Bureau of Statistics show Sydney and Melbourne continued to lead the falls, with a 3.7 per cent and 2.4 per cent fall respectively. In real terms, Sydney house prices have declined 16 per cent since the last peak in June 2017, which is about three-quarters of the average 21 per cent real decline in prices during previous downturns. However, in this downturn the price declines have occurred about twice as quickly as average.
  9. Agreed on point one.I think it's good that people who shill can held to account.You're dead right. On two,I take your various points point and there is a diverse group on here.One of the reasons it's enjoyable and not jsut an echo chamber.
  10. I'm playing with £50 and £60 of it is in New Godl and Eldorado
  11. I remember a punter on ToS who used to bang on about his $1.7mn and it reminded me of all those youthful conversations about shagging and penis size. What matters to me far more than the size of the portfolio is what it means to people.If you're punting £1.7mn and it's 10% of your asset base and it's spread around 40 ETF's,then specific calls aren't really that interesting..On the other hand if someone's punting £100 into a miner and it's 50% of their wealth,then that call becomes intriguing What I've enjoyed in this thread is the sincerity of the contributions and the tenacity/intelligence with which people defend positions. I think thats what makes it so enjoyable to me. I'll raise you a prediction the S&P will be lower than today but I have no idea on the level. FTSE/DAX/CAC lower too.
  12. Yeah Schiff I remember the internet flame war when Shedlock got hold of the trades Schiff had oput someone into that had got hosed.... ....I tend not to read too much into anyone's firm calls particularly on things like indices levels.It's quite simply always a stab in the dark given there are five hundred components in the S&P or the 40 in the CAC.If people and compouters can't even predict the CAC then how can they predict the S&P? I mainly stick to thinking whethr somehting will go higher or lower from where we are.Just shut a long on the S&p,opened short FTSE 100 and Dax.I've no idea what particualr point I'll shut at but likely within the next two weeks and hopefully in profit.... I also think relative assessments on value are easier to make althoiugh I've been consistenetly wrong on UK HPI for twenty years.That's another I do have some sympathy for people who put firm calls out there for history to judge them.Fair play.The internet ensures you can't erase them.
  13. Bill gates doesn't even look like Bill gates any more.
  14. Maybe because it's invite only? The next big crash will be in the next year or 2020 imho. Calls change on the basis of what you see in front of you and on your charts.I don;t know about you Dm but I'm trying hard to be much less firm on timing than I was ten years ago.Experience teaches you there are myriad of things that can intervene in a common sense call.
  15. Below is the LSL acadata view on haliwide Be nice if sdomeone could load the graphs and ttables for LSL.Some eye watering lsoses in Londinium. Turning to the monthly rates reported in February, the graph is dominated by the dramatic increase in prices reported by Halifax at +5.9%. Halifax makes no mention of this monthly rate in its press release, despite the fact this is the highest monthly rate recorded by them since the series began in January 1983. Halifax itself comments that “House price data on a quarterly basis provides the clearest indication of overall market trends, smoothing out the monthly volatility caused by the reduced number of monthly transactions used to calculate all house price indices.” This is especially true of a February index, which will be comparing prices between January and February, months with the lowest number of housing transactions in the year. For the record, the latest Halifax figures show a quarterly price rise of +1.8%. The other three indices which have published in February show near accord in their monthly figures, ranging from Rightmove, at +0.7%, with LSL Acadata at +0.5%, while Nationwide is the only index to have a negative monthly rate of -0.1%