sancho panza

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About sancho panza

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  1. Intersting to see RDSB as one of the few FTSE fallers today.Incredible. Was thinking about sixing up some options trades on saxo.It is clunky.I much prefer Interactive Brokers.Less fuss.They do the mulitcurrency stuff for you,whereas on Saxo you have to move currencies yourself.I don't like the dealing screen either.BUT the options are super.(I alos like IB's portfolio page whereas with Saxo its at the bottom of the dealing screen) Was chatting to my Mum today and was saying this bubble has the feel of 2000 all again.Tech stocks rumbling to unprecednet levels,old economy stocks flat as a pancake.I'm looking at these oilies and whilst I'm not metaphircally filling our boots(I think there may be more to come on the downside),I have been steadily moving in as you know XOM <$70,ENI<E14,RDSB<£23,BP<£5,EQNR<£20,Total<E47 etc.Ducked out of Gazprom in August,living to regret it. Ref pipelines,have you got any you're sizing up?
  2. I do wonder if there's a slight level of depopulation going on I was in Coventry city centre today.University wasn't as busy with people as a few years back.Could be the time of year.Record levels of student hosuing goingup though. What data you referring to?This https://www.talkingretail.com/news/industry-news/food-sales-fall-sharply-december-17-01-2020/ Sales at food stores fell by 1.3% in December and by 0.6% over the past three months, new industry figures reveal. Remarkable that so many retialers are staying up.Interesting as well to see UK hosue builders bombing up past previous peaks eg BDEV https://uk.investing.com/indices/general-retailers-components We got some at $2.60 and tranche 2 at $5.Still holding though.Can see them heading down fro here. Do you remember our chat about Impala ? They were roughly $1.50 at the time.Don't look We never dabbled.
  3. Credit deflation is the the natural result of the fractional reserve system imploding.Lower hosue prices would be a logial result. Extend and pretend can last a long time,but all it does is make the eventual reversion to mean even more brutal. The prices of a lot of things will collapse as credit gets reined in. We do knwo the govt will try and prop it up but a key feature of debt deflations is that interest rates don't need to rise to cause.It's al about confidence drops causing drops in aggrgate demand. When it happens is anyone's question but the certainty of it's coming is why I joined Errols merry band of goldbugs. Look at Deutsche banks share price and compare it to the bloated ECB balance sheet.Thats all the evidence I need for my position nice expalantion if i may say
  4. I psoted in the Big Short thread that it's worth noting that the March 2000- Sept 2001 bear market (based on the S&P) there were a lot of big blue chip shares that moved the other way to the wider market and actually went up either slightly or a decent per centage.Few posted here. Just to make the point that the large internal changes are masked by headline drops and rises...I can see the likes of the big Techies dropping 75% plus .I can see RDSB rising. Sounds both beutiful and ideal DM. Mrs P would love it.We'd definitely like to lead a semi rural life when the kids are older either here or in SA Think there's a lot of people beginning to question why they bother
  5. Banks are reining in lending at the fastest rate since the global crash as fears rise of an economic slowdown which could spell chaos for high-risk borrowers following a years-long debt binge. Business loans suffered their toughest squeeze on availability since the 2008 financial crisis in the final three months of 2019, amid a slump in appetite from lenders. At the same time a crackdown on access to credit cards intensified, according to Bank of England data, with availability falling for three straight years following warnings from regulators that a risky bubble has blown up. The figures will intensify speculation that an interest rate cut is needed to boost the flagging economy.' Banks squeling for a cut,whooda thunk it?
  6. Hot money has aslo flowed in property in the West.You look at the valuations of Apple,Facebook,Google and they run alongside the valuations we see for housing here. But as someone who's seena few exponential phases in his time,I'm beginning to feel the insanity in the stock market trumps the insanity in the housing market bubble wise. I shut down my last few trades on the short side at a small profit.Goiing to wait for a re entry point.
  7. Our leting agent said there was a good few houses hitting the rental market because the powners couldn't get the top dollar theyd paid a few years before.She said it was mainly higher end.Anmecdotal but hey. It'll be interesting to see how they deal with Metro Bnaks problems.
  8. I suspect they'll never turn a profit.Councils up and down the country buy up these dud assets because they believe in the myth of entrpreneurial failure rather than the reality of shrinking footfal/disposable income and the rising taxes that they themselves have forced on many struggling local business. They're cheap but may get cheaper yet if we get a run down to $40 as DB reckons might be possible. DYYOR natch decl.we've got a small sub 1% exposure to oil service from Hussman https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc191230/ Blue Chip Performance: 1973-1974 Du Pont -58.4% Eastman Kodak -62.1% Exxon -46.9% Ford Motor -64.8% General Electric -60.5% General Motors -71.2% Goodyear -63.0% IBM -58.8% McDonalds -72.4% Mobil -59.8% Motorola -54.3% PepsiCo -67.0% Philip Morris -50.3% Polaroid -90.2% Sears -66.2% Sony -80.9% Westinghouse -83.1% We forget. Blue Chip Performance: 2000-2002 Cisco Systems -89.3% Microsoft -65.2% JP Morgan -76.5% Intel -82.3% McDonalds -74.4% EMC -96.2% Disney -68.4% Oracle -84.2% Merck -58.8% Boeing -58.6% IBM -58.8% Amgen -66.9% Apple -81.1% We forget. during much of the tech bubble and the mortgage bubble, value-oriented stocks outperformed other deciles through the bulk of the advance. However, that pattern shifted profoundly as the market approached its peak, with investors increasingly chasing high-valuation “glamour” stocks while the broader market gradually lost its sponsorship. Blue Chip Performance: 2007-2009 Google -65.3% Bank of America -94.0% Microsoft -50.3% Merck -65.5% Coca Cola -42.3% JP Morgan -68.5% Intel -56.8% AT&T -49.3% Cisco Systems -60.0% Boeing -72.6% Apple -60.9% Citigroup -98.1% We forget.
  9. As iirc we discussed in the betting thread,my vote was Brexit party/Ukip or nothing.I completely agree that the roots of our problems lie withour political class and the fact that they're drawn from such a small strata of society.We've largely been governed by people with little life expereince outside being a porfessional politician since/Eton/Oxbridge since Churchill.When the Millibands took over Labour,it was hard not to laugh.Summed up labour's chances really. FPTP doesn't really allow for the rise of vibrant new talent.Persoanlly, i think there are a lot of people who've dropped tribal allegiances over the Brexit period 2011+ and I think a new party will rise on the right.There's a lot of people feel as disillusioned as us.
  10. It implies that a rational market will likely settle significantly south of where we are when it does.I may not be alive though. I jsut take the view that in the event the Leicester market (and the wider UK market) reset on longer term means,you genuinely wouldn't want to tbe living in some of the inner city areas. I know Leicester well and have seen the changes over 50 years.It's a powder keg in search of a spark. My preference-given a binary choice between buying a semi for £300k or building a portfolio of oilies/goldies(for now) of a similar size-would be to take the portfolio route.If Leicester descends into chaos,we move straight out giving one month's notice and rent somewhere untouched by the chaos.I have explained the theory to Mrs P and she understands as she's from South Africa. I'd agree they're a leveraged play on the underlying.You won't get a ten bagger out of RDSB and XOM but you might from the XES/OIH plays.Even the ETF's.....XES peaked at $50 and is currently sub $8 o/t https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-investors-in-2020-should-be-careful-about-partying-like-its-1999-2020-01-13?mod=home-page The U.S. economy grew about 4% in 2019 — good news, except that the national debt grew about 5.6%, or about $1.3 trillion; our debt-to-GDP currently exceeds 100%; paradoxically, the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.96% has dropped to 1.8% from 2.6%. Maybe not paradoxically: the Federal Reserve went from a faint attempt of quantitative tightening starting in the fourth quarter of 2018, which caused stock market to have a mini-crash a year ago, to quantitative easing in the second half of 2019, which arguably caused the market to go up.
  11. It took a Wolf St piece for me to understand your point in my mind.Echoing your thoughts....Whoever is left standing will do well.How you getting exposure to the commodity CP? Decl-we have a 0.1% position in EQT from August amongst other FCG/XOP/XLE trades. https://wolfstreet.com/2020/01/14/eqt-largest-us-natural-gas-producer-takes-1-8-billion-write-down-admits-it-cant-succeed-in-low-price-shale-gas-environment/ The largest natural gas driller in the United States just announced a massive write-down for its assets, offering more evidence that the shale sector faces fundamental problems with profitability. In a regulatory filing on Monday, Pittsburgh-based EQT took a $1.8 billion impairment for the fourth quarter, as the natural gas market continues to sour. Although not a household name, EQT is the largest gas producer in the country, and is a giant in the Marcellus shale. EQT itself admits that it can’t succeed in this environment. “Gas prices are down. It has a big impact, the difference between $2.75 gas and $2.50 gas,” Toby Rice said in December “A lot of this development doesn’t work as well at $2.50 gas.” “Additionally, EQT’s cash flow metrics compare poorly to other Baa3 rated oil producing companies, despite EQT’s size and scale,” Moody’s concluded EQT’s share price is down by more than half since last spring, and it is also down by more than 75 percent since 2017. These problems are obviously much larger than EQT. Range Resources recently slashed its dividend in order to pay off debt, while also taking out another $550 million in new debt in order to pay off maturing debt this year. Meanwhile, Chesapeake Energy, the second largest gas producer, is now trading at pennies on the dollar and faces the prospect of being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. EQT’s predicament reflects the broader financial questions that have long plagued the shale industry. Fracking can produce lots of oil and gas, but steep decline rates make profits elusive. If the largest gas producer in the country is struggling, and has a credit rating in junk territory, then something is wrong with the business model.
  12. From a working capital position it doesn't look too bad, but it's when you see the bump in assets -porperty/plant 2017-2018 you'd begin to question the equity position. Building mines costs big money. Capex has been huge thus far especially given there are no revenues https://www.investing.com/equities/sirius-minerals-balance-sheet
  13. I think we need to separate what we're trying to assess.As I've said elsewhere.Single salry multiples are about the most reliable indicator of where we are in teh bubble. Joint incomes includes a hsot of assumptions about hosuehold formation that mean hosuehold incomes aren't a relaible measure of where we are. In terms of buying,absolutely take your point about JimJams.Super description. Things have changed for now.The distortions introduced by the various basel reforms and allowing BTL mortgages to credit availability have meant working families increasingly have only one route to security of tenure and that involves taking a shedload of risks with IR's and govt support for failed insito's such as RBS. Proabably less to be fair as the failures were legion.RBS/Halifax/B&B/A&L etc etc.
  14. Delayed hosuehold formation is a major issue economically.One of the ironies means that we need more immigration which the priced out get to pay the school bills for. Surreal.Can't afford kids,but get to pay for other people's.
  15. you're an aexpereinced politcal gambler.Don't try that one.Labour lsot the election.The Tory vote went up 1.3% or something equally shite and that was with Farage letting huge chunks of the country down. Brexit party beat the Tories in Barnsley ffs..... Agreed though on your point re HTB/FLS/ZIRP/QE.Tory policy is to protect Worcesterwoman from neg equity