sancho panza

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  1. sancho panza

    The dud Kangaroo bounce thread

    drip,drip,drip Prices now may fall 20% https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/18/australians-told-property-prices-could-fall-another-15 Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are on course to fall 20% and the risk of crash “cannot be ignored”, according to a significant rethink on the direction of the market by one of Australia’s most high-profile economists. Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital, had expected the peak to trough fall in the two biggest cities to be 15%. But a cocktail of factors including poor affordability, reduced credit, a tougher refinancing environment for existing borrowers and a fall in foreign buyers has forced him to revise his forecast downwards. “Starting about a year ago it seems the tide has turned against property prices,” Oliver wrote on the AMP website on Thursday. “Property prices in Sydney and Melbourne are likely to see top to bottom falls of around 20% as credit conditions tighten, supply rises and a negative feedback loop from falling prices risks developing.”
  2. The perils of working to buy PM mining shares. How's the job going?
  3. 1) I have this nagging feeling that we'll see a strong rally,many of my lsit of shorts are flagging oversold. 2) Huge drops don't suit the sort of people hanging round this thresad for a variety of reasons. 3) I can't beleive some of the price action in some sectors.Looking at the hosuebuilders you'd say we're entereing recession.Looking at the Utilities,you'd say we're in it.Looking at some support services stocks,you'd say we're nowhere near it. Some of the big techies are looking weak eg FB.But then other eg Apple are holding.It's all bout the Fang stocks for me.When they go,it'll be carnage.Persoanlly,I think that'll be next year but I have no reasoning aside from buy back activity and a substantial sneaking feeling.UK could well go long before the US.
  4. sancho panza

    The Big Short Thread

    Most people use stop losses so the only time you really get walloped is when there's a sizeable move eg big gap up at the open or a take over offer. I use guaranteed stops myself on IG which means higher margin requirements,but I'm quite conservative.
  5. sancho panza

    The Big Short Thread

    Can I ask what made you move on Whitbread CV?
  6. sancho panza

    The Big Short Thread

    I'm wondering if their recent downward moves are the start of the terminal grind down........I suspect not hence I closed BDev(my biggest position) but in 2007 they pretty much plummted all the way to the bottom. Similar to where I am I think,spreading your risk.I think Savills was a good pick.WHen I first opened some whenever this thread started tey were on my radar but I felt they were deep in the downtrend alaready.Think they have real potnetial if you hang on in there.I'll maybe take a punt on them next week alongside Restaurant Group for a littel retail exposure. I'm still waiting on coca cola crossing some long term averages and JD Sports which are bubblicious for a high st retialer. Great move on IHG....If they bounce I'll go in but they've had a bad few weeks and I hate going short after a decent drop.
  7. sancho panza

    The Big Short Thread

    That's a really good take on trading.Plan your trades and trade your plan.It's good that you're self aware enough to know your limits and that you play to them.It's easy to lose a lot of cash playing these games. I've posted positions thus far for the sake of being open and transparent,in some ways I wish I hadn't as I've had a run of luck that makes me look more shrewd than I am. Might be a good idea from hereonin to only decl if we're talking about a share I have a position in. I'm geninely thinking about opening up on starbucks....even though it's not into a long term downtrend Still waiting for Denny's lol
  8. I can't see how many of the big mall owners will be making any profits in five let alone ten years with their current debt structure.Look at the failings of Sears in the US to see where Dept stores are going and with them the Landlords piggy backing the credit bubble.
  9. I'm still getting hosed on our goldies. One reason I never spreadsheet portfolios as losses can put you off your stride.I know we're down,not sure by how much.Having said that,we're not selling.There's still lots of value there imho,loads are under long term trend lines.
  10. Your allusion made me do some calcs on the LSL data while I'm watching The Good Wife with Mrs P-an excellent show if I may say. LSL use an arithmetic mean for their data.London being up 3.9% is heavily skewed by the data in the top 4 Boroughs where prices are over £1 million and where prices are up in 2 boroughs by 11% and 20%.I haven't got Excel on this PC but it seems safe to say that taking those out,Londinium is negative YoY AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES BY LONDON BOROUGH (Mix adjusted) PRIOR YR RANK RANK BY PRICE LONDON BOROUGH Aug-17 Jul-18 Aug-18 Month % Change Annual % Change 1 1 KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA 1,658,887 1,895,067 1,849,644 -2.4% 11.5% 2 2 CITY OF WESTMINSTER 1,555,980 1,343,585 1,409,010 4.9% -9.4% 4 3 CITY OF LONDON 977,289 1,226,855 1,181,070 -3.7% 20.9% 3 4 CAMDEN 997,060 1,013,320 1,008,327 -0.5% 1.1% 5 5 HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM 947,040 921,849 879,827 -4.6% -7.1% 6 6 RICHMOND UPON THAMES 786,368 762,856 769,026 0.8% -2.2% 8 7 ISLINGTON 744,120 730,259 730,876 0.1% -1.8% 7 8 WANDSWORTH 761,740 719,790 694,571 -3.5% -8.8% 11 9 MERTON 612,828 658,277 648,554 -1.5% 5.8% 13 10 LAMBETH 599,164 654,203 616,136 -5.8% 2.8% 10 11 HARINGEY 642,863 624,241 615,504 -1.4% -4.3% 9 12 BARNET 645,563 594,338 594,595 0.0% -7.9% 15 13 HACKNEY 578,499 586,887 592,492 1.0% 2.4% 18 14 BRENT 548,624 578,651 586,618 1.4% 6.9% 12 15 SOUTHWARK 601,021 602,862 584,914 -3.0% -2.7% 17 16 KINGSTON UPON THAMES 559,475 557,114 558,237 0.2% -0.2% 16 17 EALING 578,235 546,636 539,958 -1.2% -6.6% 14 18 TOWER HAMLETS 581,120 551,465 524,489 -4.9% -9.7% 19 19 HARROW 531,321 495,970 499,701 0.8% -6.0% 21 20 HOUNSLOW 481,438 510,941 498,498 -2.4% 3.5% 20 21 BROMLEY 501,885 492,368 488,054 -0.9% -2.8% 25 22 REDBRIDGE 456,325 473,178 471,773 -0.3% 3.4% 27 23 WALTHAM FOREST 450,254 457,690 460,098 0.5% 2.2% 23 24 ENFIELD 458,781 445,012 448,069 0.7% -2.3% 26 25 HILLINGDON 454,451 436,718 444,103 1.7% -2.3% 22 26 LEWISHAM 470,457 445,881 439,594 -1.4% -6.6% 24 27 GREENWICH 458,148 434,956 419,416 -3.6% -8.5% 30 28 SUTTON 401,715 408,766 407,752 -0.2% 1.5% 31 29 HAVERING 394,577 393,625 390,415 -0.8% -1.1% 28 30 CROYDON 413,392 392,794 388,947 -1.0% -5.9% 29 31 NEWHAM 409,520 393,841 378,493 -3.9% -7.6% 32 32 BEXLEY 365,512 360,517 362,706 0.6% -0.8% 33 33 BARKING AND DAGENHAM 301,790 307,078 304,706 -0.8% 1.0% ALL LONDON 600,361 621,224 623,677 0.4% 3.9% Peak 0 Max 4.9% 20.9% Min -5.8% -9.7% -ve 21 21
  11. I think the key thing with investing isn't the amount you're investing-it's all relative.What's important is that you're investing sums that are important to you.That's the key thing for most people on this thread.There's most likely a fair selection of society frequenting this thread and what makes it buzz is the liveliness of the minds contributing,not the size of hand they represent.
  12. sancho panza

    The Big Short Thread

    What's on there azzuri? show me yours etc... I've added Whitbread/Howden Joinery/Bovis.And some more Bellway.Can't believe the builders haven't bounced .genuinely questioning whether this is 2007 or 8???? Builders getting pummelled every day at the mo.I was early closing the rest but if they don't bounce I'll recycle into some possibly tasty punts on LVMH and L'Oreal AS I was saying in the other thread,some of the shares I was getting excited about have plummetted and not given a slow timer like me the chance to have a pop.Somethings afoot,not quite sure what.
  13. I think this is what the top of the business cycle looks like Decl:short EZY
  14. FAscinating insight into the industry Azzuri. Every days a learning day
  15. As per my recent discussion with barnsey,there's a few sectors rolling over that are giving us a fascianting insight into a possible market turning point. One of the central strengths of Dow theory is that it's broader logic makes an awful lot of sense ie looking for confirmations of trend(there are those who solely focus on a stricter interpretatio).Any way,builders turned a while back,some last year.This is now being confirmed by suppoort service companies like Ashtead/Ferguson/Kingfisher/Travis perkins. Obviously you have to be careful which companies you use for what. The hotels are indicative of a wider downturn but lets remember their revenues have hardly been rising over the last four years.These are all stocks that have featured in the Big Short thread. The reality of rme with my short work is that these have run away on me.I like shares that take a slow ride through long term timingpoints each confirming the downtrend is viable and then use other indicators to time entry.IHG,Ferguson,Ashstead have all done 20% in a month.Impressive.These are ramping away at the mo but to be fairfair value is a fair way away imho. Decl:short some builders/Whitbread