sancho panza

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About sancho panza

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  1. WHen you look atnthe govt and private debt levels put togehter,it's eye watering how much is owed even compared to teh 70's/GD1 .Volcker wasn't facing thsi.The CBers of the next decade are going to face an even tougher balancing act.
  2. THis time round they might be crushing employment as well as inflation
  3. The thing that defines a proper debt deflation is the fact that there's a hgue drop in demand for credit. Govt can print as much as it wants,if people don't want to borrow,then stimulus won't work as intended.
  4. I was lucky and picked ups ome interpid circa 75cents. That looks very interesting.I need to get a better grip on potash.It's our only other significant invesment besides oil/gold/utilities.But it's not well covered at the mo. Agree ref AAL and Siruius.Those big boys know. I was dissappointed Potash Sakatchwan merged with agrium a few years back. The more I look at where we are the more I see the staglfationary outcome we've discusssed.I have tried and tried to work out how we'd possibly go Japanese for 30 years but it doesn't really bear much scrutiny and I don't want to digress too much here. Fear of unemployment and a lack of inflation is not suprisingly seeing the moeny shovelled into the markets.The reference to Volcker is typical of the 1% I was talking about .There was a guy who changed the game and the direction of the good ship Uncle Sam.A lot of thes epoliticains are tweaking the rudder but people like volcker are the ones we don't necessarily see coming.Especially after we've had Bernanke/Yellen/Powell.I ahd a view at the start of Powell's tenure that he might be a game changer but was disavowed of that pretty quickly. The issues I'm stuggling with QE are that if the intent is to lube the machien to buy equity,wouldn't we be seeing some kind of loosning of solvency ratios in pensions funds? I've never really understood how pension funds have got this far without blowing up.Especially some of the 'special' legacy pension funds eg BA...BT...?? Addressing the poitns in bold,they raise a couple of important points that I need to consdier.Fristly,room for manouvre.There's very little.At the moment,the CB's are boxed in,times aren't desperate enough for a severe change of direction,so 'print n push velocity' is what theyll do and we'll jsut get the print bit with velocity on the floor. The main issue that will concern them here is unemployment.Volcker wasn't dealing with a huge cedit deflation that we're facing today. Reality is that to me the CB's have badly judged velcoity/what drives it/and the fact that it's the primary driver of inflation imho.On top of the fact that they conceive of infaltion as a monetary phenomenon. We're setting up for a real sh1t show down the line.
  5. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52862588 President Donald Trump has been criticised at home and abroad after announcing he is ending US ties with the World Health Organization (WHO). The EU urged him to reconsider the decision, while Germany's health minister called it a "disappointing setback for international health". The head of the US Senate's health committee, a Republican like Mr Trump, said now was not the time to leave. Mr Trump said the WHO had failed to hold China to account over coronavirus. The WHO, a UN agency that helps countries promote healthcare and tackle outbreaks of disease, has faced regular criticism from the US president over its handling of the outbreak.
  6. Interesting take on the prospect for office blocks that rely on lifts to get 1000's of people to their floors.WHislt the owners are going to get burned,banks will be getting hosed. https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/28/commercial-real-estate-in-the-plague-year-the-office-tower-landscape-is-about-to-be-remade/ Commercial Real Estate in the Plague Year: The Office Tower Landscape is About to Be Remade by John McNellis • May 28, 2020 • 94 Comments The elevator in a pandemic, and the accidental discovery that many businesses are 90% efficient with employees working from home. By John E. McNellis, Principal at McNellis Partners, for The Registry: “Without the elevator…there could be no downtown skyscrapers or residential high-rises, and city life as we know it would be impossible…the elevator’s role in American history has been no less profound or transformative than that of the automobile…“If we didn’t have elevators…we would have a megalopolis, one continuous city, stretching from Philadelphia to Boston, because everything would be five or six stories tall.” Boston Globe, 2 March 2014 Just as the elevator gave birth to the modern city, its loss will transform the city in ways the pundits will be debating for years to come. For make no mistake about it, we are going to lose—if not the elevator itself—then its marvelous efficiency. No longer will it whisk thousands of crowded passengers up sleek steel towers in a matter of minutes. Simply put, the elevator is ground zero for the COVID-19 virus, and its single biggest victim. Let’s agree that elevators are fabulous machines, as impactful on modern society as anything invented since. Let’s agree that, between the elevator companies and the high-rise building owners, we have very smart, highly capable and motivated people who will doubtless figure out a way to minimize the risk an elevator poses. For the sake of argument, let’s even agree that riding an empty elevator poses absolutely no risk, that there’s no hangover effect from its last rider (no scientist has gone that far). And let’s dispense with all the palliative measures for elevator safety we can think of by positing the ultimate one and then ask the only question that matters. Let’s say that after each passenger trip, an elevator somehow runs through a veritable car wash of sanitizers, that it’s guaranteed 100 percent germ-free when you step on it. Let’s agree that you can’t get the virus from any of its surfaces. Let’s assume that your office is in the tallest building in San Francisco—the beautiful 61 story Salesforce Tower—where a ride to the top in one of its 34 elevators takes 40 seconds. Let’s even say that Salesforce restricts elevator ridership to, say, no more than four passengers at a time. Given all those safety precautions, would you be willing to ride in an oversized closet several times a day, year in and out, with three other passengers, knowing nothing can prevent a stranger’s fatal sneeze? Even if 80 percent of you say, ”Sure, no worries, I’m good to go,” Salesforce and every other high-rise owner has a problem. An elevator that ferries a single passenger at a time (or four for that matter) is not an option in a high-rise. To bring this home, I asked a good friend who works on one of Salesforce’s upper floors when he would feel comfortable returning to work. While not an alarmist, he sounded like one. “There’s no f***** way I’m going back there and riding one of those dinky elevators. I don’t care what they do.” For his sake, let’s take it a step further and assume that the vaccine we’re all praying for turns out to be truly miraculous and that, rather than resemble flu shots, which range from 30 to 60 percent effective in any given flu season, the vaccine eradicates COVID-19 the way the smallpox vaccine eliminated smallpox. In that case, does everyone say olly olly oxen free and zoom skyward without a care? The employees, visitors and day trippers might. But what about the owners of the businesses leasing space in high-rises? The guys who decide where to locate their offices, whether to sign 10 year leases? The guys calling those shots are smart, they know that bat soup is staying on the menu in Wuhan, that fraught animal-human contact will only worsen as the global population expands and that containment is a sad joke. Before they commit themselves to another decade in a high-rise, they might wonder when the next pandemic virus catches the red-eye to Los Angeles. If one major tenant in five ponders that eventuality too long, America’s central business districts are in for forty miles of bad road. (In 2019, Tropical Storm Imelda brought Houston its second 1,000-year flood in just two years. Do you think a few Texans moved their offices to higher ground?) Yet offices aren’t going away. Companies, large and small, will always need offices. The question for office tenants will be: Where is that higher ground? That decision will be complicated by another factor. While the other real estate disciplines have been wrecked by the virus itself, the office market has suffered a body blow from the cure: the accidental discovery that many businesses are 90 percent efficient with their employees working from home. Add this discovery to the knowledge that the safe bet for the foreseeable future is the avoidance of small enclosed spaces—notably, elevators—and that the office market is now awash with millions of feet of sublease space. What do you have? A working recipe for serious vacancy.
  7. Govt doubling down to make it look like the lock down worked. Worth noting that at my work -NHS- there's no sociall distancing measures at all.We come into contact with covid every day probably and there's zero chance theyll be sending me home for 14 days with my feet up. It's pure and utter bull
  8. Germans taxpayers ahve a long history of loving subsidizing Southern Euro states welfare systems. UK looks like it's going hard brexit.WOn't have many options if sterling starts to drop.
  9. When I was younger I used to love old country houes.Now I know how much they cost to keep,I'd rather not. I once heard a toff say 'you don't own a country hosue,they wn you'.Sums it up. Lot of old buildigns too expensive tor epair
  10. That was super cheers Maffo. You still working for a big builder.I f=remember you from ToSI think.
  11. was speaking to an A&E sister a while back and she said on that shift she'd got two nurses who she described as 'you can't undo stupid'. She also said she had a couple of Healthcare assisstants who were brillaint but didn't want Uni due to kids/family etc. who were really talented.Bulk of healthcare at our grade is talking to people.Whether that's taking a hsitory,splitting up people fighting or dealing with irate relatives.They can't put those lessons in a text book sadly.Lot of people leave uni then realise what a slog medical work is and then give up. HND is right.Nurses and bog standard paramedics don't need to know about potassium movig in and out of nerve cells.
  12. Impressive effort on tax credits.......Wow. And disability/sickenss too. Incredible.Wellover 50%
  13. Is PIP the new disability? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/dwp-benefits-statistics-august-2019/dwp-benefits-statistical-summary-august-2019 Here are the main headlines about DWP benefits: there were 20 million people claiming DWP benefits at February 2019 two thirds of benefit claimants are of State Pension age (13 million) The rollout of Universal Credit (UC) means that the number of people claiming some older-style Working Age benefits is falling: Housing Benefit (HB) fell to 3.6 million claimants in May 2019 Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) fell to 2.1 million claimants at February 2019 Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) fell to 251,000 claimants at February 2019 Income Support (IS) fell to 448,000 at February 2019
  14. last time I chekced a good few years back tehre were 1.7mn on disability allowance....
  15. I think they'll be plenty of suckers buying the dip here.Sounds like you're well psotioned for the value buyers which means you'll be a more liquid trade than the pipe dreamers.