sancho panza

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  1. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from ThoughtCriminal in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    historically,vacuums get filed.I see both left and right rising drawing people from the centre particualrly as theyr get poorer.The moves of BJ/Trump at the mo are covering the cracks but the cracks are getting wider.
    The simple reality is that all the current debt forgiveness/low IR's is jsut encouraging the build up of a huge debt bubble that jsut ensures some seismic socio politcal change.
    AS DB and Spy have often pointed out the maths of free money has never made a lot of sense but politcally there's an increasing number of people relying on it and then more people arriving who want to rely on it.
    There is a finite timeline becoming apparent to me where the dam starts to suffer irreparable damage and we start down a road there's no coming back from.
  2. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from janch in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Hugh lost a lot of moeny for people in the run up to shutting Eclectica.Not that I disagreed with a lot of what he said.He was a very eloquent bear.
    The selling in March was something to behold and it says a lot about some of the prices we sank too.
    CP said some time back the bottom of the market will be signified by the FANG stocks being on the floor and March showed us clearlymwhe they strat selling off,everything wil go with them initally.
    I persoanlly think we've seen the XOM low through past 2022 jsut like the miners rose through 2001 bear,so will the oilies.
  3. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from Frank Hovis in UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread   
    ahttip @dnb24
    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/09/alistair-haimes-the-virus-that-turned-up-late/
    This is an article by Alistair Haimes, who has worked with data professionally for 25 years. Alistair has recently published two articles in the Critic magazine.
    Covid-19 is no more than a nasty, but basically normal, viral respiratory infection, though you’ll be regarded rather as a mullah regards a blasphemer if you say so. Why is this?
    After all: it is precisely because its symptoms seemed so similar to viral pneumonia that the initial outbreak in Wuhan was missed until the numbers built, and it is now clear that we have been missing Covid-19 cases diagnosed as pneumonia in Europe at least as far back as December, probably earlier. In the vernacular: it looks as though it was bubbling away for ages before we noticed.
    But if this is really the killer that has forced the biggest suspension of civil liberties since Oliver Cromwell’s Protectorate, what is so unusual about it? Where are the Emperor’s clothes?
    Given that my daughter is having a tap-dancing lesson on Zoom in the neighbouring room as I type, one obvious difference is that we declared lockdown for this but for no previous killer disease; but rewinding, what is so unusual about the virus that produces the disease that provoked the lockdown?
    The clue is right under our noses. Let me play a latter-day Poirot.
    Below is a graph showing the numbers of Covid-19 patients who have died each day in NHS hospitals in England (clickable larger version at end of article):

    The shape is textbook normal – and I mean ‘normal’ mathematically: as in, it’s an epidemic bell curve, and it’s a great ‘fit’. Forget trying to spot the hockey-stick impact of lockdown: this curve is basically identical to Free Sweden’s; and if the lockdown hypothesis were true, Stockholm would by now be a morgue and Greater Tokyo (population 38 million) a necropolis. (When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer even use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.)
    How about the numbers who succumb to the disease (the y-axis, i.e. the height of the bars)? Deaths per day, as is well-reported, peaked around Easter; and because deaths lag infections by something around three weeks, this implies that infections peaked sometime in mid-March. If you add up all the bars in the chart and fill in the blank area of deaths still to come, we are looking at a killer that, in scale, is bad-but-nothing-special compared to killers of previous years. Panning out: as a killer worldwide, it looks as though Covid is going to take a toll perhaps 1% of 1918’s Spanish Flu.
    So what’s so unusual? Actually, look again: the clue is in the dates running along the bottom of the graph, showing that deaths peaked on 8th April. Deaths followed a regular path up to that date, and are following a regular path down again; but the middle of the bell-curve is just before Easter.
    And that really is unusual – very unusual. At least as far back as I can find reliable data (about 1990), seasonal epidemics always strike slap-bang in mid-winter, not in spring.
    Is that all? Please: don’t tell me we’ve suspended civil liberties, shut our schools and put our economy into a coma just because it’s turned up later than these germs normally do? Have we honestly moved 8 million people (and counting) onto the government’s payroll over a virus that has done little more than miss its train?
    Let’s have a look. It is actually possible to re-write history and, roughly, see how the epidemic would look if it had struck in mid-winter rather than spring. Here’s the spadework:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly all-cause mortality (i.e. death) figures for England and Wales, at least back to the early nineties. Since the start of the epidemic, they have also published weekly numbers of people dying with Covid-19 mentioned on death certificates, and they also publish 5-year average numbers of deaths per week, which 2020 was following until Covid-19 came along. So, you can work out excess deaths during the epidemic (i.e. weekly deaths minus 5-year average deaths), and, if in turn you subtract the Covid-19 deaths from this excess figure, you get to what the CMO Chris Whitty calls the “indirect deaths” associated with the epidemic, largely through missed A&E admissions (largely cardiac) and, later, through missed referrals (largely cancer).
    Once you have these numbers, it’s simple. Firstly, subtract Covid-19 deaths from March/April and just add them to December 2019/January 2020. Secondly, remove indirect non-Covid excess deaths (‘lockdown deaths’, if you like) from March and April, on the basis that life would have gone on as normal with no lockdown under our imagined scenario, so no missed admissions or referrals. We’re simulating a situation where Covid-19 appeared in mid-winter but life went on as normal.
    Two final adjustments: sorry, I said this would be simple, but we’re nearly there. The ONS also publish population figures each year, so in order to compare Covid-19 with previous killer germs you can inflate previous years so that you are comparing ‘apples with apples’. Finally, to make the graph more legible, I have also played the medieval pope and shifted the months so that mid-winter is in the middle of the graph.
    So: the dark blue line is 2019-20, with Covid-19; the turquoise and red lines are the bad flu years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (clickable larger version at end of article).

    Awkward? It would be snarky to suggest that we should retrospectively classify the millennium celebrations as a super-spreader event, so I’ll simply point out that Covid-19 is narrowly in third place as a killer to remember, behind the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 influenzas (2017-18’s ‘Beast from the East’, the green line, doesn’t place), a point also made by American statistician William Briggs.
    Hopefully the sage eggheads on SAGE have tried something similarly basic, given these are ONS figures and it took me about half an hour, but if so it’s slightly difficult to see why we are still locked down and why the media seem to have moved Covid-19 up a weight-class.
    Thing is: how many of us do remember the winters of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 as being particularly bad flu seasons? I confess: I don’t, but there’s no ‘just’ flu about it: Covid-19 is a serious killer, and so is influenza. One viral disease we seem to have in perspective; the other not so much.
    There are really only two particularly unusual things about the Covid-19 epidemic: the timing of its arrival and the lockdown some countries declared. And if we ask “Covid, where is thy sting?”, it is lockdown that will sting: in the UK, the death-toll of people not turning up to hospital with cardiac issues (admissions are down 50% across the country) is now unmissable in the weekly non-Covid excess death figures published by the ONS, now running over 3,000 per week just for England and Wales. The downstream toll from missed cancer diagnoses (referrals are down 67%, as stressed by Professor Sikora) is heartbreak yet to come.
    This is to say nothing of the toll on education, liberty and the economy. We’ve given up everything we should hold dear for a virus that just turned up three months later than similar viruses normally do.
     
    Clickable larger versions of the graphs:
     
  4. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from Talking Monkey in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    @Talking Monkey @Shamone
    great video here
    train has leftthe station, debt and deficits,insolvency,deflation ,greater depression etc etc
    My word he's depressing.
     
  5. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from janch in UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread   
    ahttip @dnb24
    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/09/alistair-haimes-the-virus-that-turned-up-late/
    This is an article by Alistair Haimes, who has worked with data professionally for 25 years. Alistair has recently published two articles in the Critic magazine.
    Covid-19 is no more than a nasty, but basically normal, viral respiratory infection, though you’ll be regarded rather as a mullah regards a blasphemer if you say so. Why is this?
    After all: it is precisely because its symptoms seemed so similar to viral pneumonia that the initial outbreak in Wuhan was missed until the numbers built, and it is now clear that we have been missing Covid-19 cases diagnosed as pneumonia in Europe at least as far back as December, probably earlier. In the vernacular: it looks as though it was bubbling away for ages before we noticed.
    But if this is really the killer that has forced the biggest suspension of civil liberties since Oliver Cromwell’s Protectorate, what is so unusual about it? Where are the Emperor’s clothes?
    Given that my daughter is having a tap-dancing lesson on Zoom in the neighbouring room as I type, one obvious difference is that we declared lockdown for this but for no previous killer disease; but rewinding, what is so unusual about the virus that produces the disease that provoked the lockdown?
    The clue is right under our noses. Let me play a latter-day Poirot.
    Below is a graph showing the numbers of Covid-19 patients who have died each day in NHS hospitals in England (clickable larger version at end of article):

    The shape is textbook normal – and I mean ‘normal’ mathematically: as in, it’s an epidemic bell curve, and it’s a great ‘fit’. Forget trying to spot the hockey-stick impact of lockdown: this curve is basically identical to Free Sweden’s; and if the lockdown hypothesis were true, Stockholm would by now be a morgue and Greater Tokyo (population 38 million) a necropolis. (When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer even use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.)
    How about the numbers who succumb to the disease (the y-axis, i.e. the height of the bars)? Deaths per day, as is well-reported, peaked around Easter; and because deaths lag infections by something around three weeks, this implies that infections peaked sometime in mid-March. If you add up all the bars in the chart and fill in the blank area of deaths still to come, we are looking at a killer that, in scale, is bad-but-nothing-special compared to killers of previous years. Panning out: as a killer worldwide, it looks as though Covid is going to take a toll perhaps 1% of 1918’s Spanish Flu.
    So what’s so unusual? Actually, look again: the clue is in the dates running along the bottom of the graph, showing that deaths peaked on 8th April. Deaths followed a regular path up to that date, and are following a regular path down again; but the middle of the bell-curve is just before Easter.
    And that really is unusual – very unusual. At least as far back as I can find reliable data (about 1990), seasonal epidemics always strike slap-bang in mid-winter, not in spring.
    Is that all? Please: don’t tell me we’ve suspended civil liberties, shut our schools and put our economy into a coma just because it’s turned up later than these germs normally do? Have we honestly moved 8 million people (and counting) onto the government’s payroll over a virus that has done little more than miss its train?
    Let’s have a look. It is actually possible to re-write history and, roughly, see how the epidemic would look if it had struck in mid-winter rather than spring. Here’s the spadework:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly all-cause mortality (i.e. death) figures for England and Wales, at least back to the early nineties. Since the start of the epidemic, they have also published weekly numbers of people dying with Covid-19 mentioned on death certificates, and they also publish 5-year average numbers of deaths per week, which 2020 was following until Covid-19 came along. So, you can work out excess deaths during the epidemic (i.e. weekly deaths minus 5-year average deaths), and, if in turn you subtract the Covid-19 deaths from this excess figure, you get to what the CMO Chris Whitty calls the “indirect deaths” associated with the epidemic, largely through missed A&E admissions (largely cardiac) and, later, through missed referrals (largely cancer).
    Once you have these numbers, it’s simple. Firstly, subtract Covid-19 deaths from March/April and just add them to December 2019/January 2020. Secondly, remove indirect non-Covid excess deaths (‘lockdown deaths’, if you like) from March and April, on the basis that life would have gone on as normal with no lockdown under our imagined scenario, so no missed admissions or referrals. We’re simulating a situation where Covid-19 appeared in mid-winter but life went on as normal.
    Two final adjustments: sorry, I said this would be simple, but we’re nearly there. The ONS also publish population figures each year, so in order to compare Covid-19 with previous killer germs you can inflate previous years so that you are comparing ‘apples with apples’. Finally, to make the graph more legible, I have also played the medieval pope and shifted the months so that mid-winter is in the middle of the graph.
    So: the dark blue line is 2019-20, with Covid-19; the turquoise and red lines are the bad flu years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (clickable larger version at end of article).

    Awkward? It would be snarky to suggest that we should retrospectively classify the millennium celebrations as a super-spreader event, so I’ll simply point out that Covid-19 is narrowly in third place as a killer to remember, behind the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 influenzas (2017-18’s ‘Beast from the East’, the green line, doesn’t place), a point also made by American statistician William Briggs.
    Hopefully the sage eggheads on SAGE have tried something similarly basic, given these are ONS figures and it took me about half an hour, but if so it’s slightly difficult to see why we are still locked down and why the media seem to have moved Covid-19 up a weight-class.
    Thing is: how many of us do remember the winters of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 as being particularly bad flu seasons? I confess: I don’t, but there’s no ‘just’ flu about it: Covid-19 is a serious killer, and so is influenza. One viral disease we seem to have in perspective; the other not so much.
    There are really only two particularly unusual things about the Covid-19 epidemic: the timing of its arrival and the lockdown some countries declared. And if we ask “Covid, where is thy sting?”, it is lockdown that will sting: in the UK, the death-toll of people not turning up to hospital with cardiac issues (admissions are down 50% across the country) is now unmissable in the weekly non-Covid excess death figures published by the ONS, now running over 3,000 per week just for England and Wales. The downstream toll from missed cancer diagnoses (referrals are down 67%, as stressed by Professor Sikora) is heartbreak yet to come.
    This is to say nothing of the toll on education, liberty and the economy. We’ve given up everything we should hold dear for a virus that just turned up three months later than similar viruses normally do.
     
    Clickable larger versions of the graphs:
     
  6. Cheers
    sancho panza got a reaction from Shamone in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    @Talking Monkey @Shamone
    great video here
    train has leftthe station, debt and deficits,insolvency,deflation ,greater depression etc etc
    My word he's depressing.
     
  7. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from Long time lurking in UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread   
    ahttip @dnb24
    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/09/alistair-haimes-the-virus-that-turned-up-late/
    This is an article by Alistair Haimes, who has worked with data professionally for 25 years. Alistair has recently published two articles in the Critic magazine.
    Covid-19 is no more than a nasty, but basically normal, viral respiratory infection, though you’ll be regarded rather as a mullah regards a blasphemer if you say so. Why is this?
    After all: it is precisely because its symptoms seemed so similar to viral pneumonia that the initial outbreak in Wuhan was missed until the numbers built, and it is now clear that we have been missing Covid-19 cases diagnosed as pneumonia in Europe at least as far back as December, probably earlier. In the vernacular: it looks as though it was bubbling away for ages before we noticed.
    But if this is really the killer that has forced the biggest suspension of civil liberties since Oliver Cromwell’s Protectorate, what is so unusual about it? Where are the Emperor’s clothes?
    Given that my daughter is having a tap-dancing lesson on Zoom in the neighbouring room as I type, one obvious difference is that we declared lockdown for this but for no previous killer disease; but rewinding, what is so unusual about the virus that produces the disease that provoked the lockdown?
    The clue is right under our noses. Let me play a latter-day Poirot.
    Below is a graph showing the numbers of Covid-19 patients who have died each day in NHS hospitals in England (clickable larger version at end of article):

    The shape is textbook normal – and I mean ‘normal’ mathematically: as in, it’s an epidemic bell curve, and it’s a great ‘fit’. Forget trying to spot the hockey-stick impact of lockdown: this curve is basically identical to Free Sweden’s; and if the lockdown hypothesis were true, Stockholm would by now be a morgue and Greater Tokyo (population 38 million) a necropolis. (When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer even use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.)
    How about the numbers who succumb to the disease (the y-axis, i.e. the height of the bars)? Deaths per day, as is well-reported, peaked around Easter; and because deaths lag infections by something around three weeks, this implies that infections peaked sometime in mid-March. If you add up all the bars in the chart and fill in the blank area of deaths still to come, we are looking at a killer that, in scale, is bad-but-nothing-special compared to killers of previous years. Panning out: as a killer worldwide, it looks as though Covid is going to take a toll perhaps 1% of 1918’s Spanish Flu.
    So what’s so unusual? Actually, look again: the clue is in the dates running along the bottom of the graph, showing that deaths peaked on 8th April. Deaths followed a regular path up to that date, and are following a regular path down again; but the middle of the bell-curve is just before Easter.
    And that really is unusual – very unusual. At least as far back as I can find reliable data (about 1990), seasonal epidemics always strike slap-bang in mid-winter, not in spring.
    Is that all? Please: don’t tell me we’ve suspended civil liberties, shut our schools and put our economy into a coma just because it’s turned up later than these germs normally do? Have we honestly moved 8 million people (and counting) onto the government’s payroll over a virus that has done little more than miss its train?
    Let’s have a look. It is actually possible to re-write history and, roughly, see how the epidemic would look if it had struck in mid-winter rather than spring. Here’s the spadework:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly all-cause mortality (i.e. death) figures for England and Wales, at least back to the early nineties. Since the start of the epidemic, they have also published weekly numbers of people dying with Covid-19 mentioned on death certificates, and they also publish 5-year average numbers of deaths per week, which 2020 was following until Covid-19 came along. So, you can work out excess deaths during the epidemic (i.e. weekly deaths minus 5-year average deaths), and, if in turn you subtract the Covid-19 deaths from this excess figure, you get to what the CMO Chris Whitty calls the “indirect deaths” associated with the epidemic, largely through missed A&E admissions (largely cardiac) and, later, through missed referrals (largely cancer).
    Once you have these numbers, it’s simple. Firstly, subtract Covid-19 deaths from March/April and just add them to December 2019/January 2020. Secondly, remove indirect non-Covid excess deaths (‘lockdown deaths’, if you like) from March and April, on the basis that life would have gone on as normal with no lockdown under our imagined scenario, so no missed admissions or referrals. We’re simulating a situation where Covid-19 appeared in mid-winter but life went on as normal.
    Two final adjustments: sorry, I said this would be simple, but we’re nearly there. The ONS also publish population figures each year, so in order to compare Covid-19 with previous killer germs you can inflate previous years so that you are comparing ‘apples with apples’. Finally, to make the graph more legible, I have also played the medieval pope and shifted the months so that mid-winter is in the middle of the graph.
    So: the dark blue line is 2019-20, with Covid-19; the turquoise and red lines are the bad flu years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (clickable larger version at end of article).

    Awkward? It would be snarky to suggest that we should retrospectively classify the millennium celebrations as a super-spreader event, so I’ll simply point out that Covid-19 is narrowly in third place as a killer to remember, behind the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 influenzas (2017-18’s ‘Beast from the East’, the green line, doesn’t place), a point also made by American statistician William Briggs.
    Hopefully the sage eggheads on SAGE have tried something similarly basic, given these are ONS figures and it took me about half an hour, but if so it’s slightly difficult to see why we are still locked down and why the media seem to have moved Covid-19 up a weight-class.
    Thing is: how many of us do remember the winters of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 as being particularly bad flu seasons? I confess: I don’t, but there’s no ‘just’ flu about it: Covid-19 is a serious killer, and so is influenza. One viral disease we seem to have in perspective; the other not so much.
    There are really only two particularly unusual things about the Covid-19 epidemic: the timing of its arrival and the lockdown some countries declared. And if we ask “Covid, where is thy sting?”, it is lockdown that will sting: in the UK, the death-toll of people not turning up to hospital with cardiac issues (admissions are down 50% across the country) is now unmissable in the weekly non-Covid excess death figures published by the ONS, now running over 3,000 per week just for England and Wales. The downstream toll from missed cancer diagnoses (referrals are down 67%, as stressed by Professor Sikora) is heartbreak yet to come.
    This is to say nothing of the toll on education, liberty and the economy. We’ve given up everything we should hold dear for a virus that just turned up three months later than similar viruses normally do.
     
    Clickable larger versions of the graphs:
     
  8. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from DownwardSpiral in UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread   
    ahttip @dnb24
    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/09/alistair-haimes-the-virus-that-turned-up-late/
    This is an article by Alistair Haimes, who has worked with data professionally for 25 years. Alistair has recently published two articles in the Critic magazine.
    Covid-19 is no more than a nasty, but basically normal, viral respiratory infection, though you’ll be regarded rather as a mullah regards a blasphemer if you say so. Why is this?
    After all: it is precisely because its symptoms seemed so similar to viral pneumonia that the initial outbreak in Wuhan was missed until the numbers built, and it is now clear that we have been missing Covid-19 cases diagnosed as pneumonia in Europe at least as far back as December, probably earlier. In the vernacular: it looks as though it was bubbling away for ages before we noticed.
    But if this is really the killer that has forced the biggest suspension of civil liberties since Oliver Cromwell’s Protectorate, what is so unusual about it? Where are the Emperor’s clothes?
    Given that my daughter is having a tap-dancing lesson on Zoom in the neighbouring room as I type, one obvious difference is that we declared lockdown for this but for no previous killer disease; but rewinding, what is so unusual about the virus that produces the disease that provoked the lockdown?
    The clue is right under our noses. Let me play a latter-day Poirot.
    Below is a graph showing the numbers of Covid-19 patients who have died each day in NHS hospitals in England (clickable larger version at end of article):

    The shape is textbook normal – and I mean ‘normal’ mathematically: as in, it’s an epidemic bell curve, and it’s a great ‘fit’. Forget trying to spot the hockey-stick impact of lockdown: this curve is basically identical to Free Sweden’s; and if the lockdown hypothesis were true, Stockholm would by now be a morgue and Greater Tokyo (population 38 million) a necropolis. (When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer even use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.)
    How about the numbers who succumb to the disease (the y-axis, i.e. the height of the bars)? Deaths per day, as is well-reported, peaked around Easter; and because deaths lag infections by something around three weeks, this implies that infections peaked sometime in mid-March. If you add up all the bars in the chart and fill in the blank area of deaths still to come, we are looking at a killer that, in scale, is bad-but-nothing-special compared to killers of previous years. Panning out: as a killer worldwide, it looks as though Covid is going to take a toll perhaps 1% of 1918’s Spanish Flu.
    So what’s so unusual? Actually, look again: the clue is in the dates running along the bottom of the graph, showing that deaths peaked on 8th April. Deaths followed a regular path up to that date, and are following a regular path down again; but the middle of the bell-curve is just before Easter.
    And that really is unusual – very unusual. At least as far back as I can find reliable data (about 1990), seasonal epidemics always strike slap-bang in mid-winter, not in spring.
    Is that all? Please: don’t tell me we’ve suspended civil liberties, shut our schools and put our economy into a coma just because it’s turned up later than these germs normally do? Have we honestly moved 8 million people (and counting) onto the government’s payroll over a virus that has done little more than miss its train?
    Let’s have a look. It is actually possible to re-write history and, roughly, see how the epidemic would look if it had struck in mid-winter rather than spring. Here’s the spadework:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly all-cause mortality (i.e. death) figures for England and Wales, at least back to the early nineties. Since the start of the epidemic, they have also published weekly numbers of people dying with Covid-19 mentioned on death certificates, and they also publish 5-year average numbers of deaths per week, which 2020 was following until Covid-19 came along. So, you can work out excess deaths during the epidemic (i.e. weekly deaths minus 5-year average deaths), and, if in turn you subtract the Covid-19 deaths from this excess figure, you get to what the CMO Chris Whitty calls the “indirect deaths” associated with the epidemic, largely through missed A&E admissions (largely cardiac) and, later, through missed referrals (largely cancer).
    Once you have these numbers, it’s simple. Firstly, subtract Covid-19 deaths from March/April and just add them to December 2019/January 2020. Secondly, remove indirect non-Covid excess deaths (‘lockdown deaths’, if you like) from March and April, on the basis that life would have gone on as normal with no lockdown under our imagined scenario, so no missed admissions or referrals. We’re simulating a situation where Covid-19 appeared in mid-winter but life went on as normal.
    Two final adjustments: sorry, I said this would be simple, but we’re nearly there. The ONS also publish population figures each year, so in order to compare Covid-19 with previous killer germs you can inflate previous years so that you are comparing ‘apples with apples’. Finally, to make the graph more legible, I have also played the medieval pope and shifted the months so that mid-winter is in the middle of the graph.
    So: the dark blue line is 2019-20, with Covid-19; the turquoise and red lines are the bad flu years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (clickable larger version at end of article).

    Awkward? It would be snarky to suggest that we should retrospectively classify the millennium celebrations as a super-spreader event, so I’ll simply point out that Covid-19 is narrowly in third place as a killer to remember, behind the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 influenzas (2017-18’s ‘Beast from the East’, the green line, doesn’t place), a point also made by American statistician William Briggs.
    Hopefully the sage eggheads on SAGE have tried something similarly basic, given these are ONS figures and it took me about half an hour, but if so it’s slightly difficult to see why we are still locked down and why the media seem to have moved Covid-19 up a weight-class.
    Thing is: how many of us do remember the winters of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 as being particularly bad flu seasons? I confess: I don’t, but there’s no ‘just’ flu about it: Covid-19 is a serious killer, and so is influenza. One viral disease we seem to have in perspective; the other not so much.
    There are really only two particularly unusual things about the Covid-19 epidemic: the timing of its arrival and the lockdown some countries declared. And if we ask “Covid, where is thy sting?”, it is lockdown that will sting: in the UK, the death-toll of people not turning up to hospital with cardiac issues (admissions are down 50% across the country) is now unmissable in the weekly non-Covid excess death figures published by the ONS, now running over 3,000 per week just for England and Wales. The downstream toll from missed cancer diagnoses (referrals are down 67%, as stressed by Professor Sikora) is heartbreak yet to come.
    This is to say nothing of the toll on education, liberty and the economy. We’ve given up everything we should hold dear for a virus that just turned up three months later than similar viruses normally do.
     
    Clickable larger versions of the graphs:
     
  9. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from k-effective in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Shaun msut be reading the thread.
    Narrow moeny getting spunked everywhere.M1 too(US annual growth rate 27.5% ffs).Big firms parking cash from QE,a sign of trouble ahead,velocity unmoved....................for nwo.
    https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/29/the-blue-touch-paper-has-been-lit-on-the-money-supply-boom-of-2020/
    The blue touch paper has been lit on the Money Supply boom of 2020
    Posted on May 29, 2020 Today as I shall explain later is a case of back to the future especially for me. It brings an opportunity to examine one of the economic features of the current Covid-19 pandemic. This is a surge in money supply growth which has been quite something such that I think we will look back and consider it to be unprecedented. I expect that to be true in absolute terms in many places and it is already being true in relative terms in many.
    The Euro Area
    This morning has brought another signal of this so let us go straight to the ECB data.
    Previously we had eight months of growth of ~8% so as you can see going to 10.4% and then 11.9% shows that the accelerator has been pressed hard and maybe the pedal has been pushed to the metal. If we switch to the cause of this which is mostly the rate of QE purchases by the ECB well you can see below. Apologies for the alphabeti spaghetti.
    These are the weekly increases and if we stick to the money supply we see that in one week alone some 42 billion Euros of QE took place which means that on the other side of the ledger the narrow money supply has been increased by the same amount. Some of this was previously taking place and the more recent boost is called PEPP and is of the order of 30 billion Euros a week.
     
    What this means is that the total amount of narrow money has gone from just under 9 trillion Euros in January to just over 9.5 trillion in April and will be going past 10 trillion fairly soon ( at the current pace in July).
    Tucked away in the detail is that people have been wanting cash as well. The amount in circulation rose by 25.6 billion Euros in March and by 15.1 billion in April. Only a couple of months but that represents a clear shift of gear as we note April was the same as the whole of the third quarter last year and 2020 so far has already exceeded 2019.
    Broad Money
    This is a case of the same old song.
    The pick-up in annual growth is of the order of 3% and this is the highest growth rate for nearly 12 years, well until next month anyway! Switching to totals it is now 13.6 trillion Euros.
    The breakdown is rather revealing I think.
     
    This tells us a couple of things. The opener is that the expansion is a narrow money thing and in fact narrow money over explains it. That means that in terms of wider bank intermediation there was a credit contraction here as we shift from M1 to M3 via M2.
    Also at first it looks like the rate of deposits from businesses has picked up but then we see it seems to be insurance companies and pension funds. Or if you prefer the ECB has just bought a load of bonds off them and they have deposited the cash for now.
    Although that might seem obvious we have seen stages where it has not appeared to be true.
    Credit
    The credit punch bowl has been out too.
    The main thing of note here is the surge in credit given to governments which links to the increases in public expenditure we have seen. There has been quite a swing here as it was negative ( -2%) as recently as February and had been negative for 9 months. So the Stability and Growth Pact was applied and then abandoned.
     
    Looking at the breakdown the fall in loans to households is presumably a decline in mortgage lending and I think you can all figure out why companies were borrowing more.
    @fwred of Bank Pictet has got his microscope out.
    His Euro area glass is always full so let me point out that there are times when companies are borrowing to invest (good) and times they are borrowing because they are in trouble.
    Also he has been kind enough to illustrate one of my main themes so thank you Fred and the emphasis is mine
    What a coincidence!
     
    Comment
    This is an example in a way of the circle of life as back in the day I got a job because as a graduate monetary economist City firms wanted people to look at the money supply. Although there was a difference in that the central banks and governments were trying to bring it down as opposed to pumping it up. Rather ominously it did not work as planned and sometimes did not work at all.
    How should it work? In essence the extra money balances (narrow money) should be spent relatively quickly and thereby give the economy a boost. That is why I look at narrow money and as an indicator it has worked pretty well. The catch or “rub” as Shakespeare would put it is velocity or how quickly the money circulates and there we have a problem as it is hard to measure especially right now. We know that for a while it will have been extremely low because in many areas you simply cannot spend money at the moment.
    As we look internationally we see many examples of this. I have gone through the Euro area data today but if we switch to the US the numbers are even higher. The annual rate of M1 growth is 27.5% there so the pedal may even have been pushed through the metal. Care is needed as definitions vary but even using a more Euro area one it looks as though it would be over 20%.
  10. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from S Brule in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    @Talking Monkey @Shamone
    great video here
    train has leftthe station, debt and deficits,insolvency,deflation ,greater depression etc etc
    My word he's depressing.
     
  11. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from S Brule in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Shaun msut be reading the thread.
    Narrow moeny getting spunked everywhere.M1 too(US annual growth rate 27.5% ffs).Big firms parking cash from QE,a sign of trouble ahead,velocity unmoved....................for nwo.
    https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/29/the-blue-touch-paper-has-been-lit-on-the-money-supply-boom-of-2020/
    The blue touch paper has been lit on the Money Supply boom of 2020
    Posted on May 29, 2020 Today as I shall explain later is a case of back to the future especially for me. It brings an opportunity to examine one of the economic features of the current Covid-19 pandemic. This is a surge in money supply growth which has been quite something such that I think we will look back and consider it to be unprecedented. I expect that to be true in absolute terms in many places and it is already being true in relative terms in many.
    The Euro Area
    This morning has brought another signal of this so let us go straight to the ECB data.
    Previously we had eight months of growth of ~8% so as you can see going to 10.4% and then 11.9% shows that the accelerator has been pressed hard and maybe the pedal has been pushed to the metal. If we switch to the cause of this which is mostly the rate of QE purchases by the ECB well you can see below. Apologies for the alphabeti spaghetti.
    These are the weekly increases and if we stick to the money supply we see that in one week alone some 42 billion Euros of QE took place which means that on the other side of the ledger the narrow money supply has been increased by the same amount. Some of this was previously taking place and the more recent boost is called PEPP and is of the order of 30 billion Euros a week.
     
    What this means is that the total amount of narrow money has gone from just under 9 trillion Euros in January to just over 9.5 trillion in April and will be going past 10 trillion fairly soon ( at the current pace in July).
    Tucked away in the detail is that people have been wanting cash as well. The amount in circulation rose by 25.6 billion Euros in March and by 15.1 billion in April. Only a couple of months but that represents a clear shift of gear as we note April was the same as the whole of the third quarter last year and 2020 so far has already exceeded 2019.
    Broad Money
    This is a case of the same old song.
    The pick-up in annual growth is of the order of 3% and this is the highest growth rate for nearly 12 years, well until next month anyway! Switching to totals it is now 13.6 trillion Euros.
    The breakdown is rather revealing I think.
     
    This tells us a couple of things. The opener is that the expansion is a narrow money thing and in fact narrow money over explains it. That means that in terms of wider bank intermediation there was a credit contraction here as we shift from M1 to M3 via M2.
    Also at first it looks like the rate of deposits from businesses has picked up but then we see it seems to be insurance companies and pension funds. Or if you prefer the ECB has just bought a load of bonds off them and they have deposited the cash for now.
    Although that might seem obvious we have seen stages where it has not appeared to be true.
    Credit
    The credit punch bowl has been out too.
    The main thing of note here is the surge in credit given to governments which links to the increases in public expenditure we have seen. There has been quite a swing here as it was negative ( -2%) as recently as February and had been negative for 9 months. So the Stability and Growth Pact was applied and then abandoned.
     
    Looking at the breakdown the fall in loans to households is presumably a decline in mortgage lending and I think you can all figure out why companies were borrowing more.
    @fwred of Bank Pictet has got his microscope out.
    His Euro area glass is always full so let me point out that there are times when companies are borrowing to invest (good) and times they are borrowing because they are in trouble.
    Also he has been kind enough to illustrate one of my main themes so thank you Fred and the emphasis is mine
    What a coincidence!
     
    Comment
    This is an example in a way of the circle of life as back in the day I got a job because as a graduate monetary economist City firms wanted people to look at the money supply. Although there was a difference in that the central banks and governments were trying to bring it down as opposed to pumping it up. Rather ominously it did not work as planned and sometimes did not work at all.
    How should it work? In essence the extra money balances (narrow money) should be spent relatively quickly and thereby give the economy a boost. That is why I look at narrow money and as an indicator it has worked pretty well. The catch or “rub” as Shakespeare would put it is velocity or how quickly the money circulates and there we have a problem as it is hard to measure especially right now. We know that for a while it will have been extremely low because in many areas you simply cannot spend money at the moment.
    As we look internationally we see many examples of this. I have gone through the Euro area data today but if we switch to the US the numbers are even higher. The annual rate of M1 growth is 27.5% there so the pedal may even have been pushed through the metal. Care is needed as definitions vary but even using a more Euro area one it looks as though it would be over 20%.
  12. Cheers
    sancho panza got a reaction from geordie_lurch in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    @Talking Monkey @Shamone
    great video here
    train has leftthe station, debt and deficits,insolvency,deflation ,greater depression etc etc
    My word he's depressing.
     
  13. Cheers
    sancho panza got a reaction from geordie_lurch in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Shaun msut be reading the thread.
    Narrow moeny getting spunked everywhere.M1 too(US annual growth rate 27.5% ffs).Big firms parking cash from QE,a sign of trouble ahead,velocity unmoved....................for nwo.
    https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/29/the-blue-touch-paper-has-been-lit-on-the-money-supply-boom-of-2020/
    The blue touch paper has been lit on the Money Supply boom of 2020
    Posted on May 29, 2020 Today as I shall explain later is a case of back to the future especially for me. It brings an opportunity to examine one of the economic features of the current Covid-19 pandemic. This is a surge in money supply growth which has been quite something such that I think we will look back and consider it to be unprecedented. I expect that to be true in absolute terms in many places and it is already being true in relative terms in many.
    The Euro Area
    This morning has brought another signal of this so let us go straight to the ECB data.
    Previously we had eight months of growth of ~8% so as you can see going to 10.4% and then 11.9% shows that the accelerator has been pressed hard and maybe the pedal has been pushed to the metal. If we switch to the cause of this which is mostly the rate of QE purchases by the ECB well you can see below. Apologies for the alphabeti spaghetti.
    These are the weekly increases and if we stick to the money supply we see that in one week alone some 42 billion Euros of QE took place which means that on the other side of the ledger the narrow money supply has been increased by the same amount. Some of this was previously taking place and the more recent boost is called PEPP and is of the order of 30 billion Euros a week.
     
    What this means is that the total amount of narrow money has gone from just under 9 trillion Euros in January to just over 9.5 trillion in April and will be going past 10 trillion fairly soon ( at the current pace in July).
    Tucked away in the detail is that people have been wanting cash as well. The amount in circulation rose by 25.6 billion Euros in March and by 15.1 billion in April. Only a couple of months but that represents a clear shift of gear as we note April was the same as the whole of the third quarter last year and 2020 so far has already exceeded 2019.
    Broad Money
    This is a case of the same old song.
    The pick-up in annual growth is of the order of 3% and this is the highest growth rate for nearly 12 years, well until next month anyway! Switching to totals it is now 13.6 trillion Euros.
    The breakdown is rather revealing I think.
     
    This tells us a couple of things. The opener is that the expansion is a narrow money thing and in fact narrow money over explains it. That means that in terms of wider bank intermediation there was a credit contraction here as we shift from M1 to M3 via M2.
    Also at first it looks like the rate of deposits from businesses has picked up but then we see it seems to be insurance companies and pension funds. Or if you prefer the ECB has just bought a load of bonds off them and they have deposited the cash for now.
    Although that might seem obvious we have seen stages where it has not appeared to be true.
    Credit
    The credit punch bowl has been out too.
    The main thing of note here is the surge in credit given to governments which links to the increases in public expenditure we have seen. There has been quite a swing here as it was negative ( -2%) as recently as February and had been negative for 9 months. So the Stability and Growth Pact was applied and then abandoned.
     
    Looking at the breakdown the fall in loans to households is presumably a decline in mortgage lending and I think you can all figure out why companies were borrowing more.
    @fwred of Bank Pictet has got his microscope out.
    His Euro area glass is always full so let me point out that there are times when companies are borrowing to invest (good) and times they are borrowing because they are in trouble.
    Also he has been kind enough to illustrate one of my main themes so thank you Fred and the emphasis is mine
    What a coincidence!
     
    Comment
    This is an example in a way of the circle of life as back in the day I got a job because as a graduate monetary economist City firms wanted people to look at the money supply. Although there was a difference in that the central banks and governments were trying to bring it down as opposed to pumping it up. Rather ominously it did not work as planned and sometimes did not work at all.
    How should it work? In essence the extra money balances (narrow money) should be spent relatively quickly and thereby give the economy a boost. That is why I look at narrow money and as an indicator it has worked pretty well. The catch or “rub” as Shakespeare would put it is velocity or how quickly the money circulates and there we have a problem as it is hard to measure especially right now. We know that for a while it will have been extremely low because in many areas you simply cannot spend money at the moment.
    As we look internationally we see many examples of this. I have gone through the Euro area data today but if we switch to the US the numbers are even higher. The annual rate of M1 growth is 27.5% there so the pedal may even have been pushed through the metal. Care is needed as definitions vary but even using a more Euro area one it looks as though it would be over 20%.
  14. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from ILikeCake in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    @Talking Monkey @Shamone
    great video here
    train has leftthe station, debt and deficits,insolvency,deflation ,greater depression etc etc
    My word he's depressing.
     
  15. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from geordie_lurch in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    not had time,jsut off nights and catchign up with my reading as well as trying to get some cpaital back into the goldies.
    I'll have a look tonight.It wasa sadness for me to see Hugh give up his bearishness and go bull.'last bear turns bull' etc.
    Witha  lot of these fund managers though,wehn you examine their records they're not as slick as you think.
  16. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from jamtomorrow in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Shaun msut be reading the thread.
    Narrow moeny getting spunked everywhere.M1 too(US annual growth rate 27.5% ffs).Big firms parking cash from QE,a sign of trouble ahead,velocity unmoved....................for nwo.
    https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2020/05/29/the-blue-touch-paper-has-been-lit-on-the-money-supply-boom-of-2020/
    The blue touch paper has been lit on the Money Supply boom of 2020
    Posted on May 29, 2020 Today as I shall explain later is a case of back to the future especially for me. It brings an opportunity to examine one of the economic features of the current Covid-19 pandemic. This is a surge in money supply growth which has been quite something such that I think we will look back and consider it to be unprecedented. I expect that to be true in absolute terms in many places and it is already being true in relative terms in many.
    The Euro Area
    This morning has brought another signal of this so let us go straight to the ECB data.
    Previously we had eight months of growth of ~8% so as you can see going to 10.4% and then 11.9% shows that the accelerator has been pressed hard and maybe the pedal has been pushed to the metal. If we switch to the cause of this which is mostly the rate of QE purchases by the ECB well you can see below. Apologies for the alphabeti spaghetti.
    These are the weekly increases and if we stick to the money supply we see that in one week alone some 42 billion Euros of QE took place which means that on the other side of the ledger the narrow money supply has been increased by the same amount. Some of this was previously taking place and the more recent boost is called PEPP and is of the order of 30 billion Euros a week.
     
    What this means is that the total amount of narrow money has gone from just under 9 trillion Euros in January to just over 9.5 trillion in April and will be going past 10 trillion fairly soon ( at the current pace in July).
    Tucked away in the detail is that people have been wanting cash as well. The amount in circulation rose by 25.6 billion Euros in March and by 15.1 billion in April. Only a couple of months but that represents a clear shift of gear as we note April was the same as the whole of the third quarter last year and 2020 so far has already exceeded 2019.
    Broad Money
    This is a case of the same old song.
    The pick-up in annual growth is of the order of 3% and this is the highest growth rate for nearly 12 years, well until next month anyway! Switching to totals it is now 13.6 trillion Euros.
    The breakdown is rather revealing I think.
     
    This tells us a couple of things. The opener is that the expansion is a narrow money thing and in fact narrow money over explains it. That means that in terms of wider bank intermediation there was a credit contraction here as we shift from M1 to M3 via M2.
    Also at first it looks like the rate of deposits from businesses has picked up but then we see it seems to be insurance companies and pension funds. Or if you prefer the ECB has just bought a load of bonds off them and they have deposited the cash for now.
    Although that might seem obvious we have seen stages where it has not appeared to be true.
    Credit
    The credit punch bowl has been out too.
    The main thing of note here is the surge in credit given to governments which links to the increases in public expenditure we have seen. There has been quite a swing here as it was negative ( -2%) as recently as February and had been negative for 9 months. So the Stability and Growth Pact was applied and then abandoned.
     
    Looking at the breakdown the fall in loans to households is presumably a decline in mortgage lending and I think you can all figure out why companies were borrowing more.
    @fwred of Bank Pictet has got his microscope out.
    His Euro area glass is always full so let me point out that there are times when companies are borrowing to invest (good) and times they are borrowing because they are in trouble.
    Also he has been kind enough to illustrate one of my main themes so thank you Fred and the emphasis is mine
    What a coincidence!
     
    Comment
    This is an example in a way of the circle of life as back in the day I got a job because as a graduate monetary economist City firms wanted people to look at the money supply. Although there was a difference in that the central banks and governments were trying to bring it down as opposed to pumping it up. Rather ominously it did not work as planned and sometimes did not work at all.
    How should it work? In essence the extra money balances (narrow money) should be spent relatively quickly and thereby give the economy a boost. That is why I look at narrow money and as an indicator it has worked pretty well. The catch or “rub” as Shakespeare would put it is velocity or how quickly the money circulates and there we have a problem as it is hard to measure especially right now. We know that for a while it will have been extremely low because in many areas you simply cannot spend money at the moment.
    As we look internationally we see many examples of this. I have gone through the Euro area data today but if we switch to the US the numbers are even higher. The annual rate of M1 growth is 27.5% there so the pedal may even have been pushed through the metal. Care is needed as definitions vary but even using a more Euro area one it looks as though it would be over 20%.
  17. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from Harley in UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread   
    ahttip @dnb24
    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/09/alistair-haimes-the-virus-that-turned-up-late/
    This is an article by Alistair Haimes, who has worked with data professionally for 25 years. Alistair has recently published two articles in the Critic magazine.
    Covid-19 is no more than a nasty, but basically normal, viral respiratory infection, though you’ll be regarded rather as a mullah regards a blasphemer if you say so. Why is this?
    After all: it is precisely because its symptoms seemed so similar to viral pneumonia that the initial outbreak in Wuhan was missed until the numbers built, and it is now clear that we have been missing Covid-19 cases diagnosed as pneumonia in Europe at least as far back as December, probably earlier. In the vernacular: it looks as though it was bubbling away for ages before we noticed.
    But if this is really the killer that has forced the biggest suspension of civil liberties since Oliver Cromwell’s Protectorate, what is so unusual about it? Where are the Emperor’s clothes?
    Given that my daughter is having a tap-dancing lesson on Zoom in the neighbouring room as I type, one obvious difference is that we declared lockdown for this but for no previous killer disease; but rewinding, what is so unusual about the virus that produces the disease that provoked the lockdown?
    The clue is right under our noses. Let me play a latter-day Poirot.
    Below is a graph showing the numbers of Covid-19 patients who have died each day in NHS hospitals in England (clickable larger version at end of article):

    The shape is textbook normal – and I mean ‘normal’ mathematically: as in, it’s an epidemic bell curve, and it’s a great ‘fit’. Forget trying to spot the hockey-stick impact of lockdown: this curve is basically identical to Free Sweden’s; and if the lockdown hypothesis were true, Stockholm would by now be a morgue and Greater Tokyo (population 38 million) a necropolis. (When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer even use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.)
    How about the numbers who succumb to the disease (the y-axis, i.e. the height of the bars)? Deaths per day, as is well-reported, peaked around Easter; and because deaths lag infections by something around three weeks, this implies that infections peaked sometime in mid-March. If you add up all the bars in the chart and fill in the blank area of deaths still to come, we are looking at a killer that, in scale, is bad-but-nothing-special compared to killers of previous years. Panning out: as a killer worldwide, it looks as though Covid is going to take a toll perhaps 1% of 1918’s Spanish Flu.
    So what’s so unusual? Actually, look again: the clue is in the dates running along the bottom of the graph, showing that deaths peaked on 8th April. Deaths followed a regular path up to that date, and are following a regular path down again; but the middle of the bell-curve is just before Easter.
    And that really is unusual – very unusual. At least as far back as I can find reliable data (about 1990), seasonal epidemics always strike slap-bang in mid-winter, not in spring.
    Is that all? Please: don’t tell me we’ve suspended civil liberties, shut our schools and put our economy into a coma just because it’s turned up later than these germs normally do? Have we honestly moved 8 million people (and counting) onto the government’s payroll over a virus that has done little more than miss its train?
    Let’s have a look. It is actually possible to re-write history and, roughly, see how the epidemic would look if it had struck in mid-winter rather than spring. Here’s the spadework:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly all-cause mortality (i.e. death) figures for England and Wales, at least back to the early nineties. Since the start of the epidemic, they have also published weekly numbers of people dying with Covid-19 mentioned on death certificates, and they also publish 5-year average numbers of deaths per week, which 2020 was following until Covid-19 came along. So, you can work out excess deaths during the epidemic (i.e. weekly deaths minus 5-year average deaths), and, if in turn you subtract the Covid-19 deaths from this excess figure, you get to what the CMO Chris Whitty calls the “indirect deaths” associated with the epidemic, largely through missed A&E admissions (largely cardiac) and, later, through missed referrals (largely cancer).
    Once you have these numbers, it’s simple. Firstly, subtract Covid-19 deaths from March/April and just add them to December 2019/January 2020. Secondly, remove indirect non-Covid excess deaths (‘lockdown deaths’, if you like) from March and April, on the basis that life would have gone on as normal with no lockdown under our imagined scenario, so no missed admissions or referrals. We’re simulating a situation where Covid-19 appeared in mid-winter but life went on as normal.
    Two final adjustments: sorry, I said this would be simple, but we’re nearly there. The ONS also publish population figures each year, so in order to compare Covid-19 with previous killer germs you can inflate previous years so that you are comparing ‘apples with apples’. Finally, to make the graph more legible, I have also played the medieval pope and shifted the months so that mid-winter is in the middle of the graph.
    So: the dark blue line is 2019-20, with Covid-19; the turquoise and red lines are the bad flu years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (clickable larger version at end of article).

    Awkward? It would be snarky to suggest that we should retrospectively classify the millennium celebrations as a super-spreader event, so I’ll simply point out that Covid-19 is narrowly in third place as a killer to remember, behind the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 influenzas (2017-18’s ‘Beast from the East’, the green line, doesn’t place), a point also made by American statistician William Briggs.
    Hopefully the sage eggheads on SAGE have tried something similarly basic, given these are ONS figures and it took me about half an hour, but if so it’s slightly difficult to see why we are still locked down and why the media seem to have moved Covid-19 up a weight-class.
    Thing is: how many of us do remember the winters of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 as being particularly bad flu seasons? I confess: I don’t, but there’s no ‘just’ flu about it: Covid-19 is a serious killer, and so is influenza. One viral disease we seem to have in perspective; the other not so much.
    There are really only two particularly unusual things about the Covid-19 epidemic: the timing of its arrival and the lockdown some countries declared. And if we ask “Covid, where is thy sting?”, it is lockdown that will sting: in the UK, the death-toll of people not turning up to hospital with cardiac issues (admissions are down 50% across the country) is now unmissable in the weekly non-Covid excess death figures published by the ONS, now running over 3,000 per week just for England and Wales. The downstream toll from missed cancer diagnoses (referrals are down 67%, as stressed by Professor Sikora) is heartbreak yet to come.
    This is to say nothing of the toll on education, liberty and the economy. We’ve given up everything we should hold dear for a virus that just turned up three months later than similar viruses normally do.
     
    Clickable larger versions of the graphs:
     
  18. Agree
    sancho panza reacted to jamtomorrow in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Agreed.
    What makes this cycle inflection particularly interesting to me is the extent to which the associated grand-scale dislocation could mask these epoch-level changes occuring to the rules of the game, and therefore the potential for those changes to progress further before they're noticed for what they are.
    That could manifest in all sorts of ways, one of which (of relevance to this thread) is failure of assumed/trusted policy levers. Stay alert! 
  19. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from Loki in UK Govt Coronavirus Response: Sceptics Thread   
    ahttip @dnb24
    https://hectordrummond.com/2020/05/09/alistair-haimes-the-virus-that-turned-up-late/
    This is an article by Alistair Haimes, who has worked with data professionally for 25 years. Alistair has recently published two articles in the Critic magazine.
    Covid-19 is no more than a nasty, but basically normal, viral respiratory infection, though you’ll be regarded rather as a mullah regards a blasphemer if you say so. Why is this?
    After all: it is precisely because its symptoms seemed so similar to viral pneumonia that the initial outbreak in Wuhan was missed until the numbers built, and it is now clear that we have been missing Covid-19 cases diagnosed as pneumonia in Europe at least as far back as December, probably earlier. In the vernacular: it looks as though it was bubbling away for ages before we noticed.
    But if this is really the killer that has forced the biggest suspension of civil liberties since Oliver Cromwell’s Protectorate, what is so unusual about it? Where are the Emperor’s clothes?
    Given that my daughter is having a tap-dancing lesson on Zoom in the neighbouring room as I type, one obvious difference is that we declared lockdown for this but for no previous killer disease; but rewinding, what is so unusual about the virus that produces the disease that provoked the lockdown?
    The clue is right under our noses. Let me play a latter-day Poirot.
    Below is a graph showing the numbers of Covid-19 patients who have died each day in NHS hospitals in England (clickable larger version at end of article):

    The shape is textbook normal – and I mean ‘normal’ mathematically: as in, it’s an epidemic bell curve, and it’s a great ‘fit’. Forget trying to spot the hockey-stick impact of lockdown: this curve is basically identical to Free Sweden’s; and if the lockdown hypothesis were true, Stockholm would by now be a morgue and Greater Tokyo (population 38 million) a necropolis. (When I complain about people fearfully embracing their incarceration I can no longer even use the phrase ‘Stockholm Syndrome’, and that makes me angry.)
    How about the numbers who succumb to the disease (the y-axis, i.e. the height of the bars)? Deaths per day, as is well-reported, peaked around Easter; and because deaths lag infections by something around three weeks, this implies that infections peaked sometime in mid-March. If you add up all the bars in the chart and fill in the blank area of deaths still to come, we are looking at a killer that, in scale, is bad-but-nothing-special compared to killers of previous years. Panning out: as a killer worldwide, it looks as though Covid is going to take a toll perhaps 1% of 1918’s Spanish Flu.
    So what’s so unusual? Actually, look again: the clue is in the dates running along the bottom of the graph, showing that deaths peaked on 8th April. Deaths followed a regular path up to that date, and are following a regular path down again; but the middle of the bell-curve is just before Easter.
    And that really is unusual – very unusual. At least as far back as I can find reliable data (about 1990), seasonal epidemics always strike slap-bang in mid-winter, not in spring.
    Is that all? Please: don’t tell me we’ve suspended civil liberties, shut our schools and put our economy into a coma just because it’s turned up later than these germs normally do? Have we honestly moved 8 million people (and counting) onto the government’s payroll over a virus that has done little more than miss its train?
    Let’s have a look. It is actually possible to re-write history and, roughly, see how the epidemic would look if it had struck in mid-winter rather than spring. Here’s the spadework:
    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) publishes weekly all-cause mortality (i.e. death) figures for England and Wales, at least back to the early nineties. Since the start of the epidemic, they have also published weekly numbers of people dying with Covid-19 mentioned on death certificates, and they also publish 5-year average numbers of deaths per week, which 2020 was following until Covid-19 came along. So, you can work out excess deaths during the epidemic (i.e. weekly deaths minus 5-year average deaths), and, if in turn you subtract the Covid-19 deaths from this excess figure, you get to what the CMO Chris Whitty calls the “indirect deaths” associated with the epidemic, largely through missed A&E admissions (largely cardiac) and, later, through missed referrals (largely cancer).
    Once you have these numbers, it’s simple. Firstly, subtract Covid-19 deaths from March/April and just add them to December 2019/January 2020. Secondly, remove indirect non-Covid excess deaths (‘lockdown deaths’, if you like) from March and April, on the basis that life would have gone on as normal with no lockdown under our imagined scenario, so no missed admissions or referrals. We’re simulating a situation where Covid-19 appeared in mid-winter but life went on as normal.
    Two final adjustments: sorry, I said this would be simple, but we’re nearly there. The ONS also publish population figures each year, so in order to compare Covid-19 with previous killer germs you can inflate previous years so that you are comparing ‘apples with apples’. Finally, to make the graph more legible, I have also played the medieval pope and shifted the months so that mid-winter is in the middle of the graph.
    So: the dark blue line is 2019-20, with Covid-19; the turquoise and red lines are the bad flu years of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 (clickable larger version at end of article).

    Awkward? It would be snarky to suggest that we should retrospectively classify the millennium celebrations as a super-spreader event, so I’ll simply point out that Covid-19 is narrowly in third place as a killer to remember, behind the 1998-99 and 1999-2000 influenzas (2017-18’s ‘Beast from the East’, the green line, doesn’t place), a point also made by American statistician William Briggs.
    Hopefully the sage eggheads on SAGE have tried something similarly basic, given these are ONS figures and it took me about half an hour, but if so it’s slightly difficult to see why we are still locked down and why the media seem to have moved Covid-19 up a weight-class.
    Thing is: how many of us do remember the winters of 1998-99 and 1999-2000 as being particularly bad flu seasons? I confess: I don’t, but there’s no ‘just’ flu about it: Covid-19 is a serious killer, and so is influenza. One viral disease we seem to have in perspective; the other not so much.
    There are really only two particularly unusual things about the Covid-19 epidemic: the timing of its arrival and the lockdown some countries declared. And if we ask “Covid, where is thy sting?”, it is lockdown that will sting: in the UK, the death-toll of people not turning up to hospital with cardiac issues (admissions are down 50% across the country) is now unmissable in the weekly non-Covid excess death figures published by the ONS, now running over 3,000 per week just for England and Wales. The downstream toll from missed cancer diagnoses (referrals are down 67%, as stressed by Professor Sikora) is heartbreak yet to come.
    This is to say nothing of the toll on education, liberty and the economy. We’ve given up everything we should hold dear for a virus that just turned up three months later than similar viruses normally do.
     
    Clickable larger versions of the graphs:
     
  20. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from jamtomorrow in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Without sound like an acolyte of Milton Friedman,the decision to print is always and everywhere a poltical decision.
    99% of the time it's a function of the economics.it's the 1% I'm interested in when a poltician pressed the override button and either carried on printing or doesn't.
    It's a moot point at hte minute.we know what's going to happen for the next few years,I'm jsut interested in the political margins for movement.
    Interesting point ref the journo's getting smashed,lot of middle class incomes about to get smashed in the public sector and a lot aren't seeing it coming.
  21. Agree
    sancho panza got a reaction from Sasquatch in Diary of a house sale....post covid   
    The dip buyers will be out in force.It's going to take some serious job losses before the Brtish faith in proeprty gets a kicking.2021 does seem more likely.
     
    Interesting to see the NW promise no repo's no job losses.SUggests there's a window to get out before the SHTF.Which it will.
    Agre on the HTB/BTL.Did a job last night in an inner city terrace street.Neighbours out baiting the poor patient.I had a young crew mate with me and I think he was a bit shocked at what he saw/heard.Some of those BTL's will only sell to otehr BTLers's and there wont be many round.Unless they can find some sotuhern suckers with equity in their own home they want to put in the default chain.
    First,great idea for a thread.
    AS above I think there's a window here to be the value pick around the price point.
    Be interesting tosee how you go.
  22. Informative
    sancho panza reacted to Sugarlips in The dud Kangaroo bounce thread   
    Restlessness is growing at the inertia down under, fromReddit:
    “I hope when this is all said and done, Australians take stock of how and why we were exposed to this crisis.
    It’s not the Chinese or the Italians or the Iranians we should be looking at. But in our own back yard. Decades of weak and corrupt political leaders have put us at risk.
    We are a continent of almost unlimited resources. Until recently we were the most affluent (on paper at least). We are a net exporter of food. We are one of the most technically advanced countries in the world. We have the intelligence, resources and ability to control the spread of this virus, care for our sick, and wait out all the supply issues while the rest of the world implodes.
    And yet, here we are. We can’t protect our first responders because we can’t manufacture masks. Our hospitals will buckle under the weight of our sick because we’ve spent decades trying to force people into an American style private health system while neglecting the staff and resourcing of our public system.
    We can’t even be adults and warn the public without freaking everyone out. We spent the months since the start of the crisis in China telling everyone not to worry – it’s just the flu bro. This was so pervasive that even some of our healthcare professionals are paying off the threat. And now we shame the people who, perhaps misguided, rushed out to protect their families when the collective realisation set in. That we don’t make anything in this country. Our medications, our antibiotics, anything not grown in the ground (except TP) is shipped in from China.
    We all know this. We ship wool to China, they ship cheap T-Shirts to us. We ship coal and iron ore to China, they ship cheap steal to us. We import most of our oil. We can barely keep electricity affordable despite having some of the largest gas and coal reserves in the world. Our political leaders, from Keating, to Howard, to Rudd/Gillard/Rudd/Abbot/Turnbull/Scotty from marketing. All they have achieved is the dismantling of Australian sovereignty. They have exported our security and turned us into a tributary state. People will die, not just from the virus, but from all the secondary complications caused by supply issues and overloaded hospitals. It is these people, their corporate overlords, and their media mates, who have traded the wealth of this country for beans.
    They will not be affected by this. Their families are protected. Yours are not.”
  23. Lol
    sancho panza reacted to SillyBilly in Diary of a house sale....post covid   
    Not related to a house sale but I had a mate at uni who used to sleep for 16+ hours straight. We'd sometimes go a day without seeing him. And you couldn't wake him, literally, you couldn't wake him. It was actually pretty hilarious.
    We had a house viewing once for some students who were looking to rent it the following year. It was about 2-3pm if I recall correctly that they were due to come around. I remember showing them around, walking into his bedroom which was a tip and of course he was fast asleep, snoring (loudly). I was quite nonchalant about it (normal to us), the look of bewilderment as we were all taking in his room then leading them into the garden (which you could do through a set of double doors in his bedroom) and back through his room... Did not stir, pretty funny looking back as was about 5-6 of them.
    We then went into the kitchen where he had threw up in the sink the prior night into all the dishes. We refused to clean it so was waiting for him to wake. I did apologise but they were naturally horrified. It was disgusting to be fair.
    My other housemate was having a tommy tank in his box room so that room tour got cancelled.
    They didn't take it up. Ah, those were the days.
  24. Lol
    sancho panza reacted to sarahbell in Diary of a house sale....post covid   
    The house by me is SSTC on rightmove. 
    A car pulled up yesterday with a man with a mask. A brown man. Not important to me but as we were sat on our back step we heard the man next door to the house say in a very disgruntled way "Have you bought it?" 
    You could almost hear the steam melting out of his ears! 

    Clearly the man was a surveyor - mini steps, damp meter, look about him being able to wrangle a bit of paperwork. 

    Whoever has bought it they're spending £180k on a house that's broke the barrier for the street by thousands! 
    I wonder what they'll think when they have moved in and in autumn a great big pile of steaming muck arrives on the allotment car park visible from their back windows!
    I know it's not like chickens are noisy. They can be a bit cheery sometimes when they are telling you they've laid an egg, but normally mostly quiet.
  25. Informative
    sancho panza got a reaction from Loki in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Hugh lost a lot of moeny for people in the run up to shutting Eclectica.Not that I disagreed with a lot of what he said.He was a very eloquent bear.
    The selling in March was something to behold and it says a lot about some of the prices we sank too.
    CP said some time back the bottom of the market will be signified by the FANG stocks being on the floor and March showed us clearlymwhe they strat selling off,everything wil go with them initally.
    I persoanlly think we've seen the XOM low through past 2022 jsut like the miners rose through 2001 bear,so will the oilies.