harp

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  1. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Indeed,and almost all of it fixed at coupons that will look crazy low in a reflation.2%,1.5%,3% etc.The key to them is when the debt comes due.They will have to re-finance into a much higher rate picture.The big amounts come due around 2025+ etc.I would expect free cash flow to be hitting around £10 billion by then and them to be financing most of the bond repayments through free cash.They might end up re-financing around half the debt only.
    The bond holders will get fleeced of course,they have in affect funded the network for equity holders for almost free.I dont expect the dividend to do much and might even be cut,but as debt is repaid id expect the equity price to move up strongly.These type of stocks are the type that do very well in a reflation,as long as they use the quickly growing cash flow to repay debt and not fund dividend increases.They dont want to get to 2025 and be re-financing all debt because rates will be sky high.As ever a stair case in as part of a balanced portfolio as there will be failures along the way.It should be noted Vodafone dont have legacy issues like massive pension deficits,and the stink the other telcos are kicking up about the Liberty deal says Vodafone have outflanked them.Its them that will have to fund a massive optical fibre network during a reflation and paying rates 3 times higher on the debt than Vodafone.
  2. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  3. Agree
    harp reacted to Harley in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    It would be nice if we could all come clean and specify what we think to hold for which period (pre crash, crash, deflation, reflation, etc).  I read another very good finance only forum (respect to Spunko I defer mentioning it) where they openly talk about stocks, ITs, etc and their share portfolios.  That causes a lot of discussion so no-one would take anything as advice - indeed it just shows there is no one right answer.  We could always be a little less specific (e.g. sector, asset class, etc).  Or maybe I'm just being lazy, in which case I will lose money by not DMOFR!   If not, as a minumum, it would be nice to summarise the tenets of this thread in a timeline (maybe with flexible dates) which shows each phase, it's features (e.g. direction of bond yields), and what asset class or sub class (e.g. equity sector) would do well versus badly.  That would give us a standarda against which to frame discussions more clearly.  Treat it as a kind of work in progress this thread and its adherents are constructing.  Maybe even version it with a committee to approve changes (whoops, getting too OCD IT at this point but you get the gist!).
  4. Agree
    harp reacted to Barnsey in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Just want to thank @DurhamBorn for helping us all by starting this topic way back when on t'other site to discuss what was then a relatively abstract prediction for next 5+ years once the markets solidly turn down, amazing to see this prediction pan out and become more commonly discussed on the Twittersphere by all sorts of unrelated folks. Everything going on right now is just noise I guess, some losses heading into the deflationary bust will be inevitable, and to try to maintain my sanity I'll be concentrating on how they do coming out the other end, very difficult as I do like to keep an incredibly close eye on daily moves. Stressful and exhilarating in relatively equal measure. This really is tax free gambling in some ways, dangerously addictive.
    Obviously there are so many others here making very valuable insightful contributions, some who trade in shorter time frames, and the lines become a little blurred between short term gains and longer term holds, but continues to make this topic a great place to share ideas, thanks to all thus far and here's to a very dynamic few months ahead!
  5. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Bricks & Mortar in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

    Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.
  6. Agree
    harp reacted to Lavalas in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Think I mentioned it after following @economicalpha on Twitter. Very much his tip not mine but pleased I followed it too. My plan was to reassess towards $5 and maybe take some off but at their recent Denver Gold presentation they hinted that there might be even more undiscovered gold at Kiena Deep despite that which they have already found still not being fully priced in yet. 
    https://wsw.com/webcast/dgf18/wdo.to/?lobby=true&day=1
    There’s a lot of really useful info out there on the miners and I think just like anything, it’s about finding the right people to help inform you and those you should ignore. I’m still learning so I’d rather you know the source than think I’m worth paying much attention too. This thread, for example, is obviously brilliant in that the variety of its contributions gives analysis and maybe a direction but not necessarily a consensus. The likes of www.ceo.ca, not so much. It’s fanatical stuff with too much noise. Often reminds me of the bitcoin thread on ToS. Lack of measured analysis, way too many ‘to the moon’ type statements. This really leaves them open to pump and dumps where any vaguely decent drill results can be spun into FOMO. I suppose they’re the the dumb money and we need to not be the dumb money.
    All fun
  7. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    The SA miners were the first to turn in the 2016 rally as well,about two months before everything else.They are much more leveraged to the gold price than most (high costs) and tend to inflict great pain on the downside,but contain a lot of energy when they change course.Im very pleased with Harmony as it was my no1 stock on the rubber band list and my biggest PM holding.I actually sold 30% of my holding though at 2.10 and put half of that into Yamana at 3.40,a bit more into Endeavor Silver and kept some powder.Only reason being i had a very large stake in it and by taking a good profit out it gives me more confidence to hold the rest.Sibanye has been very kind to me over the years,and i only have a smaller holding this time,but im tempted to sell that,simply as the SA balance has increased too much in my portfolio due to the huge jump up in prices and its not balanced enough due to that.
    Eldorado have a lot of clouds hanging over them.They need to refinance debt at some point and have problems on several fronts.(not alone there in the space).Those types tend to need the sector to continue to rally and then they play catch up,usually on a bit of good news.A permit they have been waiting for etc.
    I think the top is in,or very close in the US equity markets.If they buy the dip again i think it will be the last one.The energy is running out.Its crucial though the first 20% of the bear is drip drip down to support a PM rally.We dont want to see huge drops.The UK markets looks like some sectors are mostly through their bear,others just entering.We could be in for a falling market,but one that goes sector by sector.Given the market always hurts the most people it can,US passive funds will likely be the biggest losers.
  8. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Bricks & Mortar in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

    https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

    Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.
  9. Agree
    harp reacted to leonardratso in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    dont forget though, DB is expecting a large tank of the lot, way down. Im just watching for the day on day downers then pull the plug and line up for a rinse and repeat.
  10. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  11. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Good job you put me off Tahoe,Harmony up  18% in South Africa  ,bit miffed with Endeavor Silver though its only up 4% and Majestic 5% .Now we will have to see if the massive net short in gold and silver holds its nerve and shorts more,or starts to throw the towel in.Those commercials who went net long for the first time ever will be asking for delivery.I went up the A1 to buy a £350 cross trainer for £50 off Gumtree (middle class women giving stuff away) and come back to some massive greens,.Could be a flash in the pan,but happy my rubber band work still looks like it works and shows the energy in these stocks when the sector turns.Profit taking will kick in of course and some who will be just glad to get out of the sector.
  12. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Brokers split the cash balance among different banks so its best to ring them and ask for the split and how many banks.For instance if i had £50k in my HL account in cash and they had it in Barlcays thats no good if i also had £50k in my Barclays personal/sole trader account.They dont actually give out this information on the sites they just say " a spread of FSCS banks".So if its 5 banks is the £50k split equal or not etc?.Worth ringing to confirm or message them.If they say it changes all the time then for risk you would have to assume 100% was in any bank so youd have to add the total broker cash to any cash in each bank,so in the above id have to make sure i only ever had £35k in Barclays,just i case the brokers £50k was with them when everyones pants fell down.
  13. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Im a 100% macro contrarian harp .I look at where we are in a credit cycle (and the likely scale of CB action to turn one).I then look out a couple of years to ten years.I then look at the sectors and companies that are hated,but that will get help from the next cycle.Some fail of course,but over the longer term i find the winners really make up for the odd dud.I paid my house off with tobacco shares when everyone said nobody would be smoking in a few years and they would go bust.They turned £8k into £90k.How many new tobacco companies set up in that time?.The reason of course is you cant raise capital to sell into a falling market so the ones there already with the capital can stretch out the returns from the sector while investing the free cash flow into new ventures.
    Silver and the miners are buys,all my indicators are flashing strong buy signals.The ALGO  indicator that was on sell gave a green buy signal last week (it nearly always turns last),a divergence buy signal on 17/9 and a crossover on a key indicator on the 20th.It will need the commercial and retail positioning to remain at their extremes.One of the main reasons iv taken the job i was offered is to buy more silver and PM miners out of the wages rather than have too much of my present portfolio in there.I dont know if we go down to $8 then up,but the roadmap is clear much longer out.A huge silver (and PM) bull is coming IMO.
     
  14. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Ask them why they think the commercials have gone net long silver for the first time in history.
  15. Agree
    harp reacted to Cattle Prod in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Thought I'd add a bit of colour on why natural gas is being preferentially discovered to oil. Seismic imaging (very much like a baby ultrasound) has got to the point where we can increasingly "see" the liquid under the ground (at least the base of it, which is always horizontal, because of gravity. Like a tilted beer glass). Up to now, it was essentially blind drilling. Gas "lights up" more than oil, so more gas is now being found. We hope its oil, but gas more often than not.
    Tilted beer glass, with both gas and oil attached!

  16. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  17. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  18. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  19. Agree
    harp reacted to DoINeedOne in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Being broke / skint is horrible its weird as I was thinking about that today went to the post office to post something which was on a local council estate and sometimes I stop off at the cafe there as I did today I can't help but sit there staring out the window at the betting shop
    Every council estate near me seems to have huge betting shops (we know why), now I'm not judging anyone but it's amazing to watch people go in sometimes after coming out of the post office straight into the betting shop and them bloody roulette machines
    But then thought when I was broke left home and eating cheese and bread everyday whilst sleeping on sofas or in my car luckily not outside
    where was my frame of mind I remember thinking of 101 ways to try make some money then I had lost my car (repossessed)  and then could get to work so lost my job too then everything goes 100 miles per hour getting worse
    So whilst sitting there looking at this betting shop I thought they are just looking for a quick fix, quick gains just like when we buy that lottery ticket "what if I win" which normally ends the same way either £1 down or more 
    You're always going have people who are shit with money and those that some may consider tight but at the same time it should be easier to get a job and earn a good days pay people just want to get on and enjoy their lives
    My dad used to tell me stories about losing a job walking down the road onto another site and getting a new job, but the world we live in today is not like that no more and in my honest opinion it's going get a lot worse for a lot of people and it scares me
    Thankfully in a better position today and thanks to this thread I've been diversifying and investing in different things and some would say betting just like those in the betting shop but on crypto
    We're all just trying to survive and sometimes it can all become too much
    One thing I'm glad of though is the experience of going through being broke I feel it made me stronger and better with money because I never want to go back there
  20. Agree
    harp reacted to sancho panza in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Mrs P doesn't much either but like your set up,on financial matters,I generally decide.We rent,much to the bemusement of many of our middle class friends who appear to be genuinely unable to grasp that there is an investment thesis that doesn't involve buying a house and waiting for the appreciation.
    We're looking to build a portfolio of assets with cash yields that cover wherever we want to rent and allow us to retire early if we want to..We're already well en route,and I'd much rather that so we can move with work if we need to,than be stuck in an overpriced hosue.I have many middle aged friends who have jsut levered up as they age.I've only got one or two who've stayed put and cleared the mortgage.
    First sign of 20% down in hosuing and a lot of people's paper wealth will dissappear I fear.
    We grew up in austere circumstances of sorts when I was a kid and that fear of being penniless/skint follows me.
     
    It's amazing that they allow people to trade on margin like that and then skin the other players for the losses.
    Sorry to hear about your injury harp.
    I think the bit in bold is particualrly pertinent.
  21. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Like @sancho panza says being skint is my biggest fear.Iv had cancer,relationship breakups ,redundancy you name it and faced all those down easily,skint is far worse.When i was 12 to 14 id say where i lived in the north suffered an economic depression maybe as bad as the Great Depression.In my town and most northern towns nearly ALL the jobs went as they closed almost all our industry.I can remember seeing a guy leaning against the wall in our back alley.He was one of the toughest blokes i knew.He would put on the floor half a dozen fellas without blinking.Lovely bloke though and always stuck an embassy cigarette behind my ear if i was sat on the back step as they walked home from the factory.This day it was raining and i could hear him crying like a baby.I never went out the gate,he didnt know i was there.He pulled himself together and walked off.The reason he was crying was because he hadnt been able to get any work and couldnt take a wage home to his wife .Seems he used to walk the alleys as if he was walking from work that was now just an empty site.Industry closing broke him and almost everyone else.I used to see him simply walking his dog around the park.One night i saw his wife snogging another bloke behind a tree.She wasnt like that,a lovely woman and they stayed married until he died,but i guess she needed an escape too.That was a lesson il never forget.The government lie to you,the elite will screw you over in a blink.You have to protect yourself as best you can.Question everything you are told.Understand capital.I fear a new generation are about to be that bloke,and they might get it even worse as they are so used to getting more.
  22. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  23. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  24. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.
  25. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Yellow_Reduced_Sticker in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
    No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.