harp

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  1. Informative
    harp reacted to Democorruptcy in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Postie mate of mine reckons 8,000 jobs could be going at RMG to be announced in May. Not sackings, people won't be replaced when they leave/retire etc.
    He also said they are trying to bring forward the next USO review. If ever they manage to reduce deliveries from 6 to 5 days the cost savings will be immense.
     
  2. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Calcutta in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Bet your wife thinks you're a twat now? Left you for Ed Sheeran
  3. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    I never consider those sort of things when investing.I try to make sure im balanced.If Corbyn got in i expect sterling would be toast and other investments would do well.I buy in ladders and have no interest outside of the buy triggers what price a stock is.I think most of the stocks im buying are worth x3 their prices at the end of a reflation cycle + dividends,and thats minimum.If a few fail thats fine.A balanced portfolio is the key as always.
    In short id ignore price caps,Labour governments and sentiment and look at where we are going.
    Take Hive,
    https://www.hivehome.com/services/connected-care-hive-link
    This is going to be a huge growth area in the future,and i mean huge.If Centrica can keep the lead in this it should become a very profitable side to the business.
    https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/11/16/centrica-to-join-london-blockchain-trial-for-alternative-billing/
    Centrica have world leading positions in companies at the cutting edge of block chain tech for distributed energy.Its likely this will be a huge area in the future.
    https://www.compelo.com/energy/news/centrica-alcoa-guleslettene/
    This is another huge growth area.Green energy tends to need very strong balancing skills and the above shows Centrica's strengths in this area.In a reflation these skills will be worth a lot more.
    https://driivz.com/
    Another company Centrica holds a big stake in and one that could become the EV charging partner of choice.This is likely to become the VISA of car charging and stand between the networks and the consumer.
     
    Now none of the above might make it.Centrica might go down the pan before they do,or they might fall to such a level the debt holders take control and equity is wiped out.There is,and always will be risk with equity investment.
    However i want access to those areas for the next cycle,and i dont want to be investing in start ups so Centrica it is.I have no interest in the share price today,i do hope its £5+ in 8 years,and still exists.If not im sure other parts of my portfolio will make up for it.In the short term though i do wish they could flog the nuclear power stations.Getting rid of them is likely the main short term focus.
  4. Informative
    harp reacted to Cattle Prod in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Thanks. And thanks @sancho panza fir endorsing his newsletter, I've just subscribed. I've read him long enough now to see a track record, and Ill save his fee straight away by selling my IBTL :-) (for now...)
    Interesting stuff coming out of big oil lately in the utility space. I'm going to buy a chunk of Shell once thing sells off. I won't have to worry about it till the day I die.
  5. Agree
    harp reacted to Harley in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    I hold some but at even 9.99% yield, am hoping for some more falls.  And such a yield means something (div or price) has to give as it's the third highest yielding stock in the FTSE250.  I last bought early 2018 so am currently sitting on a loss.  As a trade I would have sold it at a profit by about mid 2018 but it was a buy and hold, hence the loss.  One of my worst performers but compensated by others which is fine as the portfolio objective is dividends with capital neutrality.  But does highlight the debate between targeting yield or total return.
  6. Agree
    harp reacted to Sideysid in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    IMHO the FTSE is already undervalued, by averaging in out of favour sectors in quality dividend paying companies which are already way off their highs, is a win either way given a long enough timeframe.
    Should we see this play out like on this thread, then great, we’ll be well positioned coming out of the other side. If these defensive infrastructure stocks decline further then I can average further down and let the dividends reinvest. When you take a look at the likes of Diageo that was relatively uneffected during the last financial crisis, so not everything tanks. If the plates somehow manage to keep spinning then being all in on cash becoming ever more worthless in account is the last place you want to be.
  7. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    My portfolio is about £380k,my house is paid for (about £130k) i own another house paid for (about £80k),i have about £62k in a SIPP (growing by £2k a month) and i have a £360 a month final salary pension at 57.Im far from rich,but im very happy with where im at as i live a simple/frugal life.
    Nobody has ever given me any money (apart from my parents two 2nd hand cars) and iv always worked in factories as a production worker or ran my own business.I also had 8 years off work after cancer and ran my portfolio down by about £60k over those 10 years + the income.Most of my capital has come from investing.
    I spend between £600 and £800 a month all in and that includes having 2 cars and a van.
    I agree people have different needs depending on portfolio size,age,wants etc,but its really outside the remit of anyone here to consider such things.Its more a friendly place where people can air their views and experience on whats going on etc.My aim is to compound at around 8% or 4% above RPI as iv done the heavy lifting in the past and capital preservation is more important.Others will no doubt have different aims.
    Iv found over a long career investing and many mistakes that you create wealth slowly,and above all buy value and hated sectors,but in ladders and a broad spread.
    At the very least i hope the thread has got people thinking about the macro picture underneath the headlines,because its that driving,Brexit,Trump,Italy etc etc and hopefully when people look back on this down the line the long term calls will prove right in direction if not extremes.
    If its an echo chamber at the moment its perhaps because not much has changed and there are plenty of different views on here,especially around the PM sector.Of course if the thread has ran its course we could always re-visit in the future and see how accurate some of the calls were,for me that means when gold hits $1450+. and the GDX gets above $27.
     
     
     
  8. Informative
    harp reacted to Democorruptcy in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    These are involved in wind, DYOR etc
    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/g/greencoat-uk-wind-plc-ordinary-shares
    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/t/the-renewables-infrastructure-group-ord-npv
     
  9. Informative
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    SSE will gain a lot from owning most of the cables in Scotland to carry the power to the grid.The big utilities will also gain as they get to balance the power etc.Most of the wind power will be coming on middle to late cycle.The main gains in energy will be EV related.The question is will big oil take out some utilities to access that market quicker.
  10. Agree
    harp reacted to Cattle Prod in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    We haven't had an update from Steven Jon Kaplan from True Contrarian in a while. But he was asked for comment on the 10 year 'anniversary' of the 2009 bear market low.
    "Contrarian investor Steven Jon Kaplan calls the bull-market anniversary a phony" 
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarian-investor-steven-jon-kaplan-says-the-sp-is-in-a-bear-market-and-the-dollar-will-prove-it-2019-03-06
    Great stuff. Of particular interest:
    "Kaplan, who says he’s like to see investors “not lose 50% of their wealth a third time in 20 years,” says he’s keeping an eagle eye on the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.06% a measure of the U.S. currency against six major rivals. He says that in the last two big market pullbacks, the dollar dropped to a low then suddenly surged higher just before the equity downturn neared another nasty step lower.
    Here’s his chart that shows how the dollar behaved during the 2007-09 financial crisis, and then another that shows the S&P 500 during that same period. “If’ you’re an experienced trader, when you get to the bad point, people buy the U.S. dollar as a haven,” said Kaplan."
    Looks like at least a months lead time there, I'll be watching like a hawk too.
  11. Informative
    harp reacted to Cattle Prod in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Gas future are the wild west, you have guys trading on long range weather forecasts which is nuts. On supply, there is no shortage of gas, and most of whats being discovered these days is gas. Which is good, because we need it to displace coal. There is a single gas field in Qatar that could supply the UK for hundreds of years, and now that we're sorting our the transport problem it will get commoditised. But prices are still locally variable, subject to supply bottlenecks and price spikes so I dont invest or trade it. Oh, Exxon discovered gas equal 1bn barrel of oil equivalent last week in Cyprus. You'd have heard alot more about it if it was oil.
    Oil supply is on a knife edge and we could easily have a severe spike this year. Oil trades on the marginal barrel, and market will pay plenty of money for it if it thinks the next barell will be hard to get. With most world supply in decline, the market looks to (a) us shale and (b) saudi to ensure the cheap barells keep coming. US shale is basically a ponzi scheme that has never made money, while Saudi recently finally revealed what it has to do to bring on its 'spare' capacity. We are at historically low levels of spare capacity, but tge market is totally complacent due to incorrect assumptiom of limitless shale oil. Perhaps another example of markets looking the wrong way at key inflection points, @DurhamBorn?
     Slowing demand may mask that, but if either of those two wobble there will be a price shock. I'll be filling my boots as soon as this crazy pumped up market crashes. 
  12. Agree
    harp reacted to Cattle Prod in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    This feeds into my discussion with DB on rough time to market bottom, as I'm really hoping to get 2 more allocations into my ISA, this April and next April, before the inflation cycle turns. ISA is key to my strategy, they are an insanely good product, and I now favour them heavily over my SIPP. I dont want to pay tax on my investment income. 
    I'm a late starter to ISAs but say I get 2 more allocations in. That pot is tax free seed money. If I can deploy that into miners and inflation loving growth stocks at the bottom of the cycle, it could multi bag up to 2027 or so, with me not having to worry about losing it, as it was deployed at the bottom. I can even put it into physical silver and gold funds if I didnt want to worry about companies being stupid, all tax free in the ISA. 5 bag? 10 bag? Doesn't matter. It'll be significant, and I don't even have to think about it any more. My days of active investing are effectively over at that point. Then c. 2027 I could then switch it to a dividend portfolio (& forestry) and retire. All of it tax free. At the moment my ISA is the 'safe' part of my portfolio and I speculate outside it, but I'll switch it around at the bottom of the cycle.
    I just have to get the max 'seed money' I can into it now, before the investment opportunity of a lifetime. 2 more allocations will do me fine.
  13. Informative
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    We do a lot of cross market work on the dollar calls and we see a window for it to hit 100.Our liquidity work said 97 on the dollar would be the ceiling and it has proved pretty much 100% right as its tracked under and around since it hit it.Those tools are saying the reasons the dollar will fall wont come into play until May,and between now and then the set up says the foot has been taken off the head so the dollar can have one last rally to the 100 area.Can,not will.We think gold will trend from May/June if if doesnt now.The road map says $1350,$1253,$1500+,$900,$10,000.So up to $1350 proved correct,down to $1253,then trending wave up to $1500.Thats when it gets tricky.We have several cycles over laid here that state a bear market should be in full flight then,and a liquidity squeeze/debt deflation gives the PMs a sharp sell off.Then a secular bull gets underway as the reflation takes hold.
    Im 100% confident on our longer calls.Its inflation with bells on.The road map just gets tricky close in,thats why we always say they arent trading calls,they just help with positioning (ie like i top sliced most of my miners by 20% that has proved perfect timing).My roadmap was right that they would pull back,but given the massive upside ahead,being whipsawed out of the complex isnt sensible.
  14. Informative
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Yes a lot were very over bought and the cycles looked stretched.May is when i expect people to start to sniff inflation in the US and that should see the complex start to trend at last.However the $36 area in the GDX isnt a given and its possible we get to around $27 then a severe pull back and then start to trend much higher.Some very good profits were made in the last month in many of the miners and some of that will need shaking out.
  15. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Byron in How we treat heroes in this once great land   
    Ah! Now it starts to make sense. It really must be hard being an inadequate male growing up in a garrison town?

    Show me on the doll where the soldier punched you.
  16. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Byron in How we treat heroes in this once great land   
    As someone who spent 20 years in the Army (infantry), this one statement pisses me off.

    And Sancho, thank you for your contribution. My own life was saved by very brave medics in Iraq. One of them was also injured coming to get me out of a bad situation.

     
  17. Agree
    harp reacted to Harley in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    First, can I just take a moment to really thank SP, DB, and co for their comments.  Coming up a level to talk about behaviour, etc really makes one appreciate the special situation here.  Many thanks.
    Trading and investing is first and foremost a mind game.  Douglas' Trading Room books, etc are my go tos.  Like I have a system primarily to limit the emotional rollercoaster playing out in my mind.  You say you have a system and the "thinkers" immediately want to analyse how technically good it is without thinking about the emotional side, something which makes me back off as I may not hear much from them later!  Indeed, this whole game would be even more boring without it. 
    There's a reason certain people (e.g. ex-snipers) are good at it!  Cool, detached, patience.  And one's overall performance is always sub optimal which only encourages certain types to keep going.  Like those military "sickeners" did for some - "your next RV is back from where you just crawled from", and those that got up, found the Land Rover waiting over the next hill, and achieved satisfaction more than success.
    That's why it's a game - a mind game - and the trick is to ensure you stay in it!  Honestly bare your soul, put in the hours, and b**dly well ace your money management!
  18. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Il try to write an answer over the next few days as i think it deserves a good explanation.As always its not a science and its not always black and white,but it is very interesting.
    There are lots of interactions and differences.
  19. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Yes its happening SP isnt it.Its just like we expected.Companies like Heinz etc will be around,its just their margins will go to the floor and they will be running to go slowly backwards.The people flogging the nitrates to go on the crops wont mind though.
    The likes of Amazon etc are about to come up against it as well.They will also then have the problem of higher rates meaning discounting future earnings changes.
    Go Ahead being up nearly 50% as Honda closed its car plant brought a smile to my face.Not in the fact people were losing their jobs,thats always sad,,but in the way cycles work,and the complete lack of understanding in the media and public.
  20. Agree
    harp reacted to DoINeedOne in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Fidelity set out to examine the behaviors of their best performing accounts in a effort to isolate the behaviors of truly exceptional investors, when they contacted the owners of the best performing accounts the common thread tended to be that they had forgotten about the account altogether or had died. So much for isolating the complex behavioral traits of skilled investors
    This was from a book i have almost finished which is a interesting read so far 

  21. Agree
    harp reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    SE houses are going down 50% inflation adjusted,maybe 70% i think.
    Centrica hit a ladder point today so bought a few more grand and last ladder point is £1.07 if it hits.Go Ahead are up 40% now from my bottom ladder buy,but im not going to sell any of those going forward as i only got 3 ladders in rather than 5 and will be holding them for the cycle.Id rather they had carried on down for a full allocation but it shows how these things can diverge at a cycle turn and how some areas turn before others.Between Centrica and Go Ahead im up £120 before dividends with decent sized holdings -18% Centrica + 28% Go Ahead.It will be interesting to see what that is in 7 years time between the two including dividends.Both are doing exactly what i hoped from an operational point to structure for the cycle ahead,but its starting to show in Go Ahead while in Centrica its still hidden from view.I really hope Centrica can unload the nuclear business as that will clean the balance sheet to a point where they can really grow the sides of the business that will flourish in the next cycle.Once reflation hits,the smaller players will all go under as they wont have the tech needed to be in the sector.My one big worry is that someone takes out Centrica at around £2.20 a share before the next cycle unfolds.
    Nice jump in Playtech today as well and my last ladder had gone in at £3.66 though a much smaller allocation and -4% on them now.They could go under or go to £20 between now and 2024 and i hope its the latter.I wish they would unload the trading arm part of the business though.I think the shares would re-rate if they floated that off or sold it.
    Looking across my reflation shares im down 6% as a whole before dividends,and slightly up when counting dividends.Im very happy with that at the moment and am hoping that goes negative by 15% before dividends as that will mean most outstanding ladder points have been hit.Im hoping to get more ladders into the likes of Standard Life and several others iv only started to buy since late last year.Standard Life will get whacked more in a sell off,but the next cycle will favour their business model,though again nobody else seems to think that,trackers to the moon,cant go wrong,until it does.
    Im very excited for the next cycle and very happy with the way things are playing out.Being able to top slice some lovely profits from the PMs to fund falling ladder prices and so holding portfolio value small decline/steady/small increase is exactly what i structured for and its playing out well.
    The miners have done very well indeed for us,though a taxing ride as always with the sector,but this period between now and May could prove tricky.However if we keep running great,if not and we do fall into May then that should provide a great point to add to positions as i fully expect the data from May/June to start to see gold and the miners trend at last to GDX $35ish,Gold $1500ish.That $1500 number is what interests me really.
    Im very pleased that i went back to work as well short term.The extra capital to invest is great,but more than that it means im taking zero from my portfolio in income,so i can structure it without any outside thoughts or needs and dividends can be compounded at this crucial time.
     
    The next cycle will see the economy electrified and massive changes to transport etc.Those Honda workers can go to their next jobs on a Go Ahead bus.
     
     
     
     
     
  22. Agree
    harp reacted to DoINeedOne in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Miners are on fire today 
     
  23. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Harley in How we treat heroes in this once great land   
    As someone who spent 20 years in the Army (infantry), this one statement pisses me off.

    And Sancho, thank you for your contribution. My own life was saved by very brave medics in Iraq. One of them was also injured coming to get me out of a bad situation.

     
  24. Agree
    harp got a reaction from MvR in How we treat heroes in this once great land   
    As someone who spent 20 years in the Army (infantry), this one statement pisses me off.

    And Sancho, thank you for your contribution. My own life was saved by very brave medics in Iraq. One of them was also injured coming to get me out of a bad situation.

     
  25. Agree
    harp got a reaction from Gloommonger in How we treat heroes in this once great land   
    As someone who spent 20 years in the Army (infantry), this one statement pisses me off.

    And Sancho, thank you for your contribution. My own life was saved by very brave medics in Iraq. One of them was also injured coming to get me out of a bad situation.