Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

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  1. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from billfunk in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    CNA is my biggest holding, i was going to buy my last block at around £1 ...em not sure now, i'll wait and see, BUT i still think CNA will come RIGHT long term
    Anyway onto some GOOD NEWS!
    "London SLUMP DRAGS UK house price growth to more than six-year LOW"
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-slump-drags-uk-house-price-growth-more-083301263--business.html
    BTW, NO i'm NOT that Eric guy at ToS!
  2. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to janch in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Where's Sancho gone?  I miss his/her posts on this thread.
  3. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to spunko in So Assange Wasn’t Exaggerating..   
    Sajid "I'm not a Muslim" Javid is an odious toad. The fact he's being considered for the top job alongside Amber Rudd is enough to switch off from politics forever.
  4. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from Castlevania in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Well we' had a mild winter, so in theory SSE and CNA share price would suffer...?
    now going into spring, shouldn't be any upside in their shares ?  FTSE up yesterday and
    well well well...SSE and CNA DOWN!
    However this is logical thinking and markets ain't like that most of the time!
    It will be interesting to see how LOW... SSE goes as i don't own any yet, so this will be a GREAT buying opportunity!
    BUT...i own CNA  started buying at 1.89 DOH!  ...only just bought more @ 1.21 ! ...now their 1.13 ...i'll buy my last bundle when they go to a quid!
     
     
  5. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from UmBongo in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Do you mean that Eric pebble guy at TOS who keeps post them: LIAR LOANS  ...videos?
    NO...hes a lightweight nutter...I'm an old FULL- ON Lunatic
  6. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from one mile two pence in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Do you mean that Eric pebble guy at TOS who keeps post them: LIAR LOANS  ...videos?
    NO...hes a lightweight nutter...I'm an old FULL- ON Lunatic
  7. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from BurntBread in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Do you mean that Eric pebble guy at TOS who keeps post them: LIAR LOANS  ...videos?
    NO...hes a lightweight nutter...I'm an old FULL- ON Lunatic
  8. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from Bricks & Mortar in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Do you mean that Eric pebble guy at TOS who keeps post them: LIAR LOANS  ...videos?
    NO...hes a lightweight nutter...I'm an old FULL- ON Lunatic
  9. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to stokiescum in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Utter madness I’ve just caught my lodger throwing this away it cost him 2 quid it goes out of date at midnight so I’ve had it

  10. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from UmBongo in House Prices Indices   
    "London property market suffers WORST rate of DECLINE in a decade"
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-property-market-suffers-worst-rate-decline-decade-081638416.html
    AND...this is from the FOREVER HPI Muppets Nationwide ...so things MUST be very BAD...NICE!
  11. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Classic Kaplan right there,
    "The ratio of housing prices to average household incomes has been 3:1 for millennia and accurately tells you not only what a house cost a century ago but also what Julius Caesar would have paid for his Roman pad.Going from 9:1 to 3:1 is going to be very painful since housing owners today, just like those in several U.S. states in 2006 or Japan in 1989, are not prepared to see their house lose over half of its value. And that is assuming that prices don't go below fair value."
  12. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from UnconventionalWisdom in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Folks GREAT NEWS...!
    DRUM ROLL!
     
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    "London property market suffers WORST rate of DECLINE in a decade"
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-property-market-suffers-worst-rate-decline-decade-081638416.html
    AND...this is from the FOREVER HPI Muppets Nationwide ...so things MUST be very MAD...NICE!
     
  13. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from Castlevania in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Folks GREAT NEWS...!
    DRUM ROLL!
     
    DRUM ROLL!
     
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    DRUM ROLL!
     
    "London property market suffers WORST rate of DECLINE in a decade"
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-property-market-suffers-worst-rate-decline-decade-081638416.html
    AND...this is from the FOREVER HPI Muppets Nationwide ...so things MUST be very MAD...NICE!
     
  14. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from billfunk in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Folks GREAT NEWS...!
    DRUM ROLL!
     
    DRUM ROLL!
     
    DRUM ROLL!
     
    DRUM ROLL!
     
    DRUM ROLL!
     
    DRUM ROLL!
     
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    DRUM ROLL!
     
    "London property market suffers WORST rate of DECLINE in a decade"
    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/london-property-market-suffers-worst-rate-decline-decade-081638416.html
    AND...this is from the FOREVER HPI Muppets Nationwide ...so things MUST be very MAD...NICE!
     
  15. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    My portfolio is about £380k,my house is paid for (about £130k) i own another house paid for (about £80k),i have about £62k in a SIPP (growing by £2k a month) and i have a £360 a month final salary pension at 57.Im far from rich,but im very happy with where im at as i live a simple/frugal life.
    Nobody has ever given me any money (apart from my parents two 2nd hand cars) and iv always worked in factories as a production worker or ran my own business.I also had 8 years off work after cancer and ran my portfolio down by about £60k over those 10 years + the income.Most of my capital has come from investing.
    I spend between £600 and £800 a month all in and that includes having 2 cars and a van.
    I agree people have different needs depending on portfolio size,age,wants etc,but its really outside the remit of anyone here to consider such things.Its more a friendly place where people can air their views and experience on whats going on etc.My aim is to compound at around 8% or 4% above RPI as iv done the heavy lifting in the past and capital preservation is more important.Others will no doubt have different aims.
    Iv found over a long career investing and many mistakes that you create wealth slowly,and above all buy value and hated sectors,but in ladders and a broad spread.
    At the very least i hope the thread has got people thinking about the macro picture underneath the headlines,because its that driving,Brexit,Trump,Italy etc etc and hopefully when people look back on this down the line the long term calls will prove right in direction if not extremes.
    If its an echo chamber at the moment its perhaps because not much has changed and there are plenty of different views on here,especially around the PM sector.Of course if the thread has ran its course we could always re-visit in the future and see how accurate some of the calls were,for me that means when gold hits $1450+. and the GDX gets above $27.
     
     
     
  16. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    The truth is nobody knows when a market will top or bottom.I have lots of different reasons to start buying individual stocks and mostly its when they hit targets.Go Ahead my target was £15 to start ladder buying for instance.I aim for 4 or 5 ladders and if i get five it means a stock is down around 80% from its highs.I tend to start buying at a minimum 40% down from highs.I think all the stocks im buying are already cheap,some very cheap but they might get cheaper.Thats why i ladder buy.
    Will BAT tobacco go down if Amazon goes down 80%?.I dont know.I do know at £24 it was yielding 8.2% and was down 53% from where i sold and was happy to buy it back.Will Standard Life go below £2.32 in an equity sell off?.Almost sure it will,but i still started buying at £2.32 as i want it for the next cycle.I have no concern if my first ladder goes down 40% from there and would be happy to be getting a ladder in at £1.42
    Iv learned that the way that suits me best it to slowly buy the most hated assets that the next cycle should favour and i have no problems being down for however long.
    I do tend to sell bottom ladders when they go up 20%,but not always.I havent sold Go Ahead for instance and they are up 33%,but i want all that holding for the next cycle.Some i sell the whole holding.
    Turning a large portfolio over takes time and caution,but i expect once fully invested id be doing very little for several years.
    I should add the shares that made me the most since i started investing 34 years ago have often been down quite a lot from buying.BAT for instance was down 20%+ but ended up giving me 1000%.Whitbread similar etc.
    If the FTSE does get hit hard,id expect probably 1% down for every 2.5% in the S+P 
  17. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    My friends view,
     a melt-up in coming months that will take the S&P to 3500-4000 . This will be followed by the biggest bear market since 1929 with the potential for an 80% drop in the bust. We will not revisit the bull market highs again for decades.My gold and silver targets remain unchanged. I continue to expect $1550 gold & $26 silver by late summer. My GDX & GDXJ targets remain the same at $40 & $70, respectively. 
    I continue to expect the dollar to decline to 85-86 in coming months (months not month). Current pullback could take GDXJ back below $30 before the march to $70 resumes
    This is not trading advice,just putting it out there,these are macro calls based on extremes of the liquidity and debt profiles he sees.
    I actually took my profits on Great Panther Silver on friday.I had a 70% profit on it and although i would like to hold until silver hits targets,i have lots of silver positions.Im going to use the profits to buy some physical silver i think and if it pulls back to $1.05 re-enter.
  18. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    I dont really bother with housing mainly as il die in the one i already own outright though i do have some interest in that my son hasnt bought yet (my daughters will be mortgage free by 30 and 33 in 3 bed semis).
    However i see a down 15%,small flat line or perhaps 3% increase,then slow falls in nominal and bigger in real terms.By 2028 i expect southern house prices to be down inflation adjusted by around 70%,45% minimum.
    Here in the north i expect maybe 25% down inflation adjusted in some areas,nominal perhaps very small falls.Iv seen lots of southerners moving here the last year to get away from the immigration and crime in other southern areas.Never seen that before.
    In short i wouldnt touch a southern house,i would buy a northern one as a home and aim to pay it off quickly before rates really jack up towards the end of the next cycle,say 2027.
    If i was buying a southern house,it would be around 2028/29 as rates top out prices likely bottom inflation adjusted.
  19. Cheers
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Lots of different things Harley.
    In buying the transports its because they hedge fuel 4 years out and i expect massive runs up in prices.That will force people out of cars onto buses.They can also increase prices with RPI while depreciation is set in stone for 5 to 10 years.People will be ditching the car in droves as prices crush them elsewhere.
    Something like Royal Mail i expect competitors to go under.Their main cost is wages.Wages go up once a year.If they increase prices ahead of wages it will flow to free cash.
    Energy companies because the price will go up,again faster than depreciation.The new cycle will see the economy move to more electric.
    Telecoms are tricky.High debts mean increased payments and more investor worry.However again they have fixed depreciation somewhat yet can increase prices with inflation flowing direct to free cash.
    Silver Miners for the explosion in silver use from EVs and solar (and telcos) topped by investment buying.
    Gambling companies as people tend to gamble more when they are struggling.
    Agriculture stocks due to the transfer of power to them from the consumer stocks during a reflation.
    Military manufacture as tensions will rise and rise during inflation as it always does.
    Not all will win of course,inflation can crush margins if the management arent clever,and demand can fall faster than they can make up.Having a semi monopoly really helps.
    I simply tilt my portfolio towards inflation loving stocks.Its still balanced,just if dis-inflation continued id expect it to under-perform.If im right i expect it will out-perform,perhaps by 2% to 4% a year and as you know,that makes a big deal when compounding a decent sized portfolio.
     
  20. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to leonardratso in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    steady there big spender.
  21. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to sancho panza in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Not as yet.We're mainly in cash awaiting developments,short some,long some.I'm still not buying ETF's really until we're the other side of this.For now trying to identify the value within an ETF and not get exposure to the stuff we don't want.
    In terms of this ETF,it's pretty beat up over 7 years...
    https://www.investing.com/etfs/global-x-fertilizers-potash-advanced-chart
    As you know,I'm very interested in this sector for a whole host of reasons and some of the shares are offering real value already on a historical basis eg Mosaic,Yara,K&S,Compass.Of the 33 companies listed, tehre are some real geo political gems such as Nutrien.I think with 7bn people and counting,this sector will only go one way longer term.
    https://etfdb.com/etf/SOIL/#etf-holdings&sort_name=weight&sort_order=desc&page=2
  22. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Incredible that your frugal ways even stretch to Thailand,your such a tight fisted so and so,and i mean that in the nicest possible way .For tea we are having  a chicken dinner,two large cooked half roast chickens i got in Tesco last night for 75p each instead of £3.00 (i got 4,two for work baits) and a bag of 3 broccoli heads for 22p,huge bag of parsnips for 18p.Last night we had a king prawn stir fry.Stir fry reduced to 12p in Tesco.King prawns reduced to 95p and the Thai chilly sauce one of the 3 for £1 out of Home bargains.I made a garlic bread to go with it on my Ferarri pizza maker for 12p.
  23. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to stokiescum in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    the junior oilers on aim was where i started out and i managed to acumilate 12.5k and clear 12k of debt in just over 18/20 months,id invest 300 a month typicaly.in fact my first 2 months were wasted has i bought certificated shares i didnt know any better and both were bought around the 30p mark and id always go for 1000 of them.i still hold the first 2 which were tw. at 32p and rbs (no laughing at the back regarding rbs since diluted) think they were 34p.
    big duds included pci part of the celtic tiger,i got very lucky with the first rockhopper which gave me a much larger pot to play with.matd the mongolian oiler was another,i sold around 45/50p .bowleven and quite a few other.sometimes id bung 2k in once my pot was bigger and flee with any profit above 100-200 quid.often achived in well under a month .sometimes very easy to achieve has antisipation pre spud built.
    i even managed to buy one firm has it released an rns it had hit oil that was the easiest 400 quid profit id ever made,i bought them and sold about 3 minnutes later.
    id be in the comunity has a carer litteraly with my lap top and dongle watch the aim market all day,i did lose a lot on some but generaly id go for 10% on anything and not get greedy.i even bought a brick firm shares has the housebuilders shares went up .one that i held was an enginering firm either tws or tsw id love to know where it vanished to im sure they built train wheels or similar.
    once i got my deposit for my house i sold everything i figured id been very lucky and had a good run,my mother wanted me to carry on and try and buy one out right but i realised much of it was pure luck so i cut and ran,i surpose i was what you would call a cross between a swing trader is there such a thing has a momentum trader ? i was never a real invester never used leverage and never had my eggs in one basket.i was there like a pirate just happy to take my 1-200 quid has i was able to invest larger amounts ie 1k in a share.good fun very risky but it kept my busy all day and a lot of the clients i visited would love watching my adventures has id sit in some of there houses drinking coffee with my laptop after my visit has ended (its bloody cold up the staffs moorlands in winter )they got company for free and i got somewhere warm to stay in between visits.
  24. Agree
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Im buying around 15 companies in ladders at the moment and Royal Mail is one of them.Im down on them as a portfolio after divis by around 6% (some like BAT are up 23%,Go Ahead +37%,some like Centrica down 24%).Iv added the likes of Standard Life Aberdeen to my ladders lately as well.Id be very happy if they turned as a portfolio at around 15% down.Iv also added small ladders into a few gambling stocks,Playtech and William Hill.These will be smaller holdings than others,but i like the sector in a reflation,though tax is a big risk.Iv also added Babcock Engineering and BAE to my ladders.Babcock just below the present price and BAE 7% below it.
    I will slowly skim profits from my PM miners and fund lower ladder buys going foward.
    My aim is to get roughly 72% into my ladder stocks,and 23% into PM miners (mostly silver) and some physical PMs.
    BAT wasnt a reflation stock,but i sold a huge holding above £50 id had for decades,and the drop to £24 was a great chance to add back an old friend.They are up 20%+,but i wont be selling them.Il keep them for good now probably (i only bought back around 20% of what i sold at £50+)
    Il also start to slowly buy things like the Barings Global Agriculture Class 1 fund in any big sell off.
  25. Informative
    Yellow_Reduced_Sticker got a reaction from Inoperational Bumblebee in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Nah...to EXPENSIVE for me,  here's my CHEAPO  HEALTHY home-made ketchup...
    Takes 3 minutes to make...Mix all the ingredients in a bowl.
    BTW, all the ingredients are really easy to get. Try the ketchup and adjust if you want.
    Once you get it right ya'll NEVER buy a store ketchup again...always keep it in the fridge.
    Ingredients:
    1 cup tomato paste (270 g) 4 tbsp maple syrup 2 tbsp apple cider vinegar 1 tsp onion powder 1 tsp oregano Sea salt to taste (optional)