Majorpain

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About Majorpain

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  1. https://wolfstreet.com/2018/12/12/oil-bust-2-kicks-off-with-parker-drilling-bankruptcy/ Might have something to do with Shale oil (round 2).
  2. Napoleon didn't want to know if an up and coming general was good, he wanted to know if he was lucky! I treat the stock market like I would a casino, ultimately I hope that this thread will help us stack the deck in our favour, and ive helped add a smidgeon of value to it. I must admit that I've got that "buy gold" feeling again, it was right last time in 2015 so fingers crossed its right this time.
  3. @sancho panza Whilst i dont want to talk my book, Hochschild on the LSE is one of my favorites. Chairman holds c. 50% of the shares so has real skin in the game and so it actually delivers some shareholder value. Risk reward was good enough that i bought in around the current price anyway! Ive tried to get a mix of companies i like with either good fundamentals like Hoc, Fres or Paas with good exposure to the PM price with less of a risk, mixed in with Sibanye and Harmony with potentially PAF (lse) in the future for mad gainz. Those ranked the highest in my calculations of total resources to market cap, priced for bankruptcy at $1200 an oz but moonshot if it goes $1400+ and they can mine those deep reserves at a profit. Goldfields which you have already is in a similar boat, 60m oz of gold in SA but at $1700 oz cost. I suspect the next big mover will be the Fed meeting in December (if they pause things will be interesting dollar wise at the very least) so there is plenty of time for decision making. Ill make a decision on Yamana in January rather than following buy high sell low PI sentiment, there is nothing particular wrong with the operations, the only issue is that a lot of the value is already in the shareprice so there is limited upside IMO. The only company i found which had a worse ratio was Barrick... There is something to be said for DB's shotgun approach, much less effort researching and keeping an eye on things! Time is money and DYOR as always.
  4. The entire construction sector is one to avoid at the mo, unfortunately it what work does so its batten down the hatches time. Age of a business means very little these days, plenty of family business going for 100+ years have gone under in the last 20 years, mine was one of them! Times change and if you dont change with them... Construction as a whole is very oversupplied, some of the contractors need to die so that the others may prosper. Interserve will eventually be one them IMO. Got a job on with Interserve at the moment, on the first couple of phases, with Cash on delivery written into the contract, they were taking 30+ to actually pay money into the bank. Next phase is money BEFORE delivery!
  5. They are starting to move up slowly now, the last time i saw anything close was back in Aug 17 when PM's were soaring but miners were not following. Didnt like it and luckily sold before it crashed back to $1200! Interesting chart thanks, clearly shows how long Golds been in the doldrums, nice and hated
  6. Ive never seen the PM miners act like this, Gold is off to the races and they are all going "meh". Complete capitulation or is there something im missing?
  7. Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges? There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!
  8. Your not alone, my miners are bottomed out at the minute and its a waiting game (like last time) till they head higher again. Cost of production limits falls from here, gold may go back to $1200 but like last time I don't think it will spend long there. Meanwhile on the oil front....
  9. PM's are highly sensitive to the oil price through inflation, the miners were not doing quite so well last week, which surprised me, even though the metals were well bid. It makes sense if they are pricing in lower inflation due to abundant oil, either due to recession on demand side of pumping on supply. I guess MBS considers the long term pain of damaged reservoirs to be a better choice than the short term pain of having Trump breathing down his neck over Khashoggi and the family standing behind him with daggers!
  10. I'm not surprised to be honest! The only unknown is when the credit bubble bursts, I think its a given that's its too big for Xi to keep a lid on.
  11. This, all that manufacturing capacity was built up using cheap credit with cheap credit buying the finished goods, now credit is no longer cheap what is china going to do with the spare capacity and unemployed? Im thinking that a Chinese credit collapse will send an inflationary shockwave through the world economy, it will help get the economy back to the usual not enough supply for demand rather than the current QE fuelled not enough demand for supply in EVERYTHING.
  12. Bought a new car recently, one thing I learned was Dealer prices keenly and wouldn't haggle on price as they know everyone hops onto price comparison websites and can easily find cheaper if its out there. Equally no discount for taking finance, dealer takes entire commission from the finance company as they know vast majority will want it regardless.
  13. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46424110 Qatar out of OPEC, gold being well bid, things are getting interesting. Possibility of a final US Santa share rally is looking up IMO, interesting that amazon is being hit the least of the fangs so at least one has some magic left. FB, NFLX look spent, AAPL is looking dodgy.
  14. http://www.unite-group.co.uk/sites/default/files/2018-10/capital-markets-day-oct-18_0.pdf Everything you ever wanted to know about Unite's universities portfolio. There is a partnership programme with some unis for beds, but im not entirely sure if thats a simple student allocation, or a financial obligation on the part of the unis to provide people for beds. It will be pretty stupid if it was the latter.
  15. From what ive seen there are not too many specialist builders, the majority are just regular contractors who won that work. A student accomodation block is not too different from a block of flats or new build hotels after all. Bedroom, bathroom pod, living room and your set! Once its built your usual main contractors will have defects to cover and thats it, as lavelas mentioned it will be the clients like Unite who will have the blocks on their books and the liability in the future if they cant fill it. On a related note Swansea university had a youtube advert for me today for a chemistry course.... in December? Id love to know which are the 3 universities on the brink of bankruptcy.