Majorpain

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About Majorpain

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  1. https://www.macrotrends.net/2016/10-year-treasury-bond-rate-yield-chart Treasury Bonds are the key, not the inflation stat. Worldwide commodities are in $. Its already flattened off around 2%.
  2. Its one of the problems i have with Sibanye's current valuation, the 204m Oz of P4E stuff skewed to Palladium for $7bn of market cap? Thats before you get to the 104m oz of gold.... Only fly in the ointment is Palladium is rising on supply shortages for car exhausts, the kind of thing that gets hit in deflationary crashes!
  3. Not surprised they are upset, but its also not particularly the govt's place to be picking winners and losers. It has a habit of coming back to bite when the inevitable happens and they go out of business in 6 months taking a load of taxpayers money with them, profitable companies don't get into this situation in the first place.
  4. https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/flybe-collapse-trouble-administration-flight-bankrupt-update-today-a9280916.html Just the crash that occurs at the end of every credit fuelled boom, nothing new or exciting....
  5. Turn of the year nearly every competitor had a new website, by itself its interesting but 10 years after 2009 and a deflationary crash somewhere in the near future its red alert time. Credit insurer wanted more money to renew but would insure less companies compared to Jan 19, the must have been stung massively already so can see the writing on the wall for the weak. Construction is also generally poor these days, all price and no quality, loaded with debt and finance, my prediction that 50% of the sector wouldnt survive is looking very good right now. Even simple things like providing a size has a 25% chance of going wrong which is mad, thats before you get to the more complicated end of the spectrum.
  6. https://www.cityam.com/john-lewis-managing-director-paula-nickolds-steps-down/ MD out after a crap Christmas, and who is the new chairwoman? Just the sort of leadership a struggling retailer in the 21st century needs....
  7. PI getting completely fleeced again, the tears are epic. One guy was wondering why AAL didnt loan them the money to build the mine rather than buying the company and having the mine to itself.... The delusions and greed are strong.
  8. Rule #1: Dont trade on emotion, 75% it ends very badly for me. Rule #2: Buy low, sell high. Harder than it seems! Ultimately its your own hard earned, only you know your risk tolerance, although i would suggest sticking to the bigger names with less risk rather than going for the little guys where your cash is seriously at risk if it goes wrong. Id recommend anyone starting out to use a free training portfolio where you buy dummy shares in a safe environment, its important to find out what works for you rather than trying to copy someone else's strategy which doesn't!
  9. Or Schools n Hospitals. The problem is there is a 1-2 year lag whilst the planning and design gets sorted out, if your supply chain is loaded with debt it needs cashflow to service or you wont have a supply chain! One of those companies was hit for £5m when a key subbie went bust and couldn't do the work. Prediction was that Housing would become poison in the next cycle, housebuilders will get kneecapped if that happens (long overdue IMO...).
  10. https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/01/07/leeds-based-broadley-group-files-for-liquidation/ https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/01/07/clugston-job-toll-hits-280-as-axe-swings-again/ https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/01/03/civil-engineering-leads-december-construction-slump/ Take your pick, its not a good time to be debt heavy and cash light construction wise. Its simply a matter of time before the wider economy begins to be affected IMO.
  11. Apple's going vertical on the long term charts, doubling the market cap ($600-650bn) in one year is crazy, probably not surprising that when the fed prints $600bn in the last 3 months an unhealthy chunk makes its way into the stock market. Venezuelan/Caracas stock market is probably how it eventually ends up, 200,000% gain ftw!
  12. Just a bit of geo-political turmoil, strong possibility it drops back down for a while if tensions ease. If Tomahawks start flying or the Iranians put mines on tankers again all bets are off however.
  13. LSE PM stocks are reasonable value, the problem is i already own a hefty chunk of them and there is a limited range to buy. Tory Majority and Brexit finally being sorted took a lot of the wind out of their sails for the time being imo. Some Aurcana and possibly some more Fresnillo only for me unless something else catches my eye. Hopefully by April the crisis will be in full swing and some other sectors will become "PM undervalued"!, even more hopeful the chancellor gets rid of the KIID requirement and i can buy some Potash/Uranium/oil ETF's....
  14. Interesting List, although saying FRES and PAAS are overvalued and MAG/AG is cheap is the other way round by my calculations! Aurcana looks a good bet for a decent high risk/high reward silver gamble.
  15. Markets are at a very dangerous level, nothing to stop a blow off top but the smart money will be rotating out to the bagholders for the crash.