Majorpain

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About Majorpain

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  1. CNA is a proper falling knife, im sure it will turn around eventually but its a bit of a gamble when that is.
  2. It definitely wise to DYOR, but its also important to find out what investing style you are successful at, its ultimately about making a return on your money and if you don't do that its a waste of time! I'm probably in the long term fundamentals camp, its not been a particularly good strategy in current emotional QE driven markets but I haven't been wiped out yet, and it doesn't mean I wont be successful in the future. Whilst i could probably currently make more money investing in a Dow/Sandp500 tracker could I get out in time before it crashes or get out at all if it does? Get your timing wrong and its a long way down from these highs....
  3. Mario is funny guy. We also had another "whatever it takes" speech, is the market going to make the ECB lay its cards on the table this time?
  4. Market was probably expecting a mines reopened RNS which is why it was soaring before I'm pleased that ANC has become a little more pro mining with the new president, although its still high risk its not sky high like before.
  5. It does seem very odd, the Debenhams board seemed absolutely hell bent on not letting MA anywhere near the accounts. Skeletons in the closet to hide I wonder???
  6. Majorpain

    Gold

    Yes, i think youve nailed it with that! The problem is that the PM economic reasoning does have some truth in it, but the maths currently works out as 2+2=3 so its really not a good investment. It could take 10+ years until fiat currencys start to crack from QE induced inflation, but when they do it will not be pretty. If we get through the next recession with no damage then i will be reallocating my holdings.
  7. The road is starting to run out, the wealth effect of high house prices is over time being replaced by a wealth drain as high house prices suck the life out of the real economy. Deflation beckons.
  8. Its a potential can of worms, but there are certain problems that make it more difficult than simply nationalising. Shareholders are not just big hedge funds, you also have small investors and Pensions, if you skimp on the price then both (voting) groups are not going to be happy when they find out they have been short changed. Then there is the South Africa/Mines problem, where if the government nationalises the mines it gets the blame when miners die or jobs are lost and not the evil companies. Does Corbyn really want to choose between raising prices in the winter or running out of gas and killing loads of OAP's when companies like CNA can take the blame for hikes? That's before you get into the finding the £Bn's from the slightly broke treasury....
  9. Your assuming that there are many fit competitors left, keeping the zombie companies afloat in 2008 has lead to a general weakening of everyone in the market. If you want to increase turnover you need more trading cash and the only way the majority in my industry have done that is invoice finance/overdrafts, not making more cash. Its coming back to bite now though, construction wise the banks are withdrawing from the market as fast as possible and sending even nominally stronger businesses under. Since SME lending rates are 6-8% the banks used to love it because they made a killing.
  10. Ok, there is always a possibility that we could get the melt up to end all melt ups to catch the trendline but............ 1. Its 10 years on from 2008 2. Germany/South Korean manufacturing exports are in deep trouble. China's look better but they lie constantly, are they actually real or are they in the crap too??!! 3. Only China/Japan are actively printing, though ECB is very close to following. There is of course nothing to stop the stock market going to the moon whilst the real economy burns, proper alice in wonderland stuff though. Saying that my current theory is that MMT has lead to a reversal in the markets invisible hand, demand increases lead to price decreases and demand decreases lead to price increases. There is too much capacity and there is way too much debt betting on that capacity having a profitable future, banks would rather keep bad loans ticking over paying interest rather than book the losses (see Italy for starters). If turnover starts to drop off they need to increase prices to pay the debt interest.
  11. Morons. Nat Grid - £30Bn Water - £69Bn + The shareholders of the above will be the only ones to benefit, as night turns into day if they go after National Grid the Water companies will be next. Taxpayers/savers rinsed for £100Bn so Labour can get its trainset back.
  12. Actual mines are redundant these days, its much easier trading paper gold which can be conjured from thin air
  13. Article 11/13 passed today, the consequences could be interesting to say the least. Its worth reading up on it, at best they will ban people from linking other sites on social media, at worst social media (FB) will cease operating in EU countries lest they be sued for copyright infringement. This might be something the EU regrets if young people find out they suddenly cant share/access content online.
  14. At least as the builder/owner they have some incentive to keep quality standards up. There is not much point Building to rent 1000's of homes if you have to rebuild them all in 20 years.
  15. Per capita GDP makes it very obvious, Luxembourg makes ireland look like a bunch of amateurs! EU corporate shenanigans has made them very rich. I had to seach for China, it was two places below Iraq.