Majorpain

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About Majorpain

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  1. Geopolitical tensions are not decreasing, Iran's in trouble which is why they are blowing up oil tankers and China will not agree to anything that doesn't allow them to steal IP at will. If the Iranians get desperate enough to block the straights of Hormuz then $1500 gold will be easily met, it was pushing $1440 overnight which is surprising me as I was expecting a pullback to $1360! Im not trading this apart from trying to time top-ups so it doesn't affect me too much either way.
  2. They are selling off the profitable housing business because they have run out of cash. The rest of the business is low margin which is why they are in a mess in the first place. The insurers have completely withdrawn cover so subcontractors are on their own if they don't pay, we wont have anything to do with them until/if we get cover again. I give them 6 months if they get a good price for the housing part (its firesale so lol!), 3 months if they don't. Either way the shareholders will eventually get wiped out like Carillion/Interserve IMO.
  3. Negative yielding bonds just make no sense to me. Your going to lend money to the Germans for 15 years, two potential economic cycles, and pay them money for the privilege? Central banks can do nothing but dig the hole deeper until it collapses in on them.
  4. I'm less worried about where its going to be next week and more about where its going to be in 6 months, $1500+ gold would certainly put it back in view for the average investor. The good news is that Banks are getting wary and financial conditions are starting to tighten for the real economy, competitor took out a £100k loan for 12 months for £50k and a personal guarantee. That's madness IMO, especially for a £4m turnover business with not a huge amount of debt.
  5. Sweet baby Jesus and the orphans, something went wrong for someone in a big way last night. Gold Shorts panic closing as they realise they are about to be steamrolled by the bull market?
  6. Euro dropped and Dollar popped on Draghi's QE to infinity comments, one Trump tweet on currency manipulation later.... The solution to Brexit is simple - the EU ceases to exist. A Euro crisis of sufficient magnitude will be ample to do this IMO, and its coming soon to a screen near you.
  7. http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/06/16/shaylor-staff-laid-off-by-sunday-morning-email/ Cashflow, again..... Arguably low interest rates are not helping here as companies are more loath than usual to hoard cash that gets eaten away by inflation. They then rely on other people to lend them money which if that isn't forthcoming at any point leads to near fatal problems very quickly.
  8. @sancho panza https://www.thebalance.com/the-10-biggest-silver-producers-2340234 KGHM Polska Miedź S.A. Glencore plc Compania de Minas Buenaventura Volcan Compania Minera Hindustan Zinc Ltd 138m oz of silver with those, whilst they wont all be base/PM mix i have a feeling that a very large % is. The more pure PM miners in that chart produced 126m oz as way of comparison.
  9. Silver will remain weak until those base metal mines curb their output IMO, far too much supply otherwise. With the US having its longest period of economic expansion ever in July it isn't likely to be too much longer. Unless of course we are never going to have another recession!
  10. Financial bulletin boards for the FTSE PM miners are pretty dead, even with the moves in PM's over the past few weeks. Good contrarian sign IMO that the bottom is in and we are on the way up.
  11. A certain new hospital in the North East looks good on the outside but the main contractor still has teams running round fixing things after 4 years. Roof leaks like feck. Another was being charged £10k a week for two years till they got out of the contract in court, the least painful problem was they built the ablutions the wrong size so you couldn't open the toilet doors. But they will still get away with screwing everyone on the price as zombie companies fuelled by QE are not doing the decent thing and going out of business (yet). May just be me, but i really disliked Howdens in my limited dealings with them.
  12. Too much competition with not enough demand if my experience is anything to go by. 50% of construction related companies should be going out of business in the next recession IMO. At least fitting kitchens you dont have to worry too much about scheduling trades, driving 50+ miles to fit something only to find out the site manager was wrong and the floor hasnt even been put down yet happens at least once a month with us.
  13. Not surprised, Terry Smith is very open and no fool. He is also very much into his assets being liquid which is where Woodford properly fell down. That said, nothing lasts forever and whilst i held and made a nice profit from Fundsmith in the past im suspicious of how much of his phenomenal gain is QE driven. When the inevitable crisis hits and everything starts getting beaten down i will probably sink a small % of my portfolio his way.
  14. Lega is busy floating ideas for the new euro replacement minibot currency, the shots across the ECB's bow are getting very close.
  15. Epic clickbait from the Mail this morning! I was very rough when I did it, average UK salary for single person just under £30k x 4 is £120k. With an appropriate amount of economic turmoil (looking at you deutsche bank) I don't think that's unrealistic, but it of course depends on how bad and how long the economy takes a hit (and BOE firing up the printing press). That's before you get into the nitty gritty of how enthusiastic the banks will be lending 4x salary to a couple of with ropey job prospects. Corbyn's popularity among the young is mainly the result of being priced out of living in the UK IMO, house prices must come down but the result of that will be less wealth effect amongst the older generations. Rock meet hard place!