A_P

Members
  • Content Count

    1,928
  • Joined

  • Last visited


Reputation Activity

  1. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Roger_Mellie in Blockbusters 2019   
    Should be better than some gameshow my mum had on the other week when i was round. Dropping coins into some oversize coin pusher. 
  2. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from null; in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    I'm not trying to be right. I'm trying to be objective. You're taking such a hardline and extreme stance (noted by your previous post to me). I don't disagree a downturn/recession or whatever you want to call is due. Nor that generally it is messed up out there. Why I'm on the forum after all. But then I'm open to the plates being spun and can's kicked down the road for however long. I like to question and probe to keep myself grounded and open to other eventualities. I actually get stuck into the data rather than just read a headline or skim an article.
    Kudos on the returns for this year (it's been a good year for every asset class thus far). But how about the year before and the year before that etc. Data suggests sitting on the sidelines/bearish camp waiting for the downturn isn't a reasonable tradeoff. In fact it is quite the penalty. Yet you believe otherwise? Your aim is double the money? You could have doubled it already in the meantime. By the time the 50% downturn could happen, how much time and money has gone by? Why be so heavily invested in a single asset class/region that a downturn will even register as more than a time to get more assets cheaply?
  3. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Dogtania in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    I'm not trying to be right. I'm trying to be objective. You're taking such a hardline and extreme stance (noted by your previous post to me). I don't disagree a downturn/recession or whatever you want to call is due. Nor that generally it is messed up out there. Why I'm on the forum after all. But then I'm open to the plates being spun and can's kicked down the road for however long. I like to question and probe to keep myself grounded and open to other eventualities. I actually get stuck into the data rather than just read a headline or skim an article.
    Kudos on the returns for this year (it's been a good year for every asset class thus far). But how about the year before and the year before that etc. Data suggests sitting on the sidelines/bearish camp waiting for the downturn isn't a reasonable tradeoff. In fact it is quite the penalty. Yet you believe otherwise? Your aim is double the money? You could have doubled it already in the meantime. By the time the 50% downturn could happen, how much time and money has gone by? Why be so heavily invested in a single asset class/region that a downturn will even register as more than a time to get more assets cheaply?
  4. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from AlfredTheLittle in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    That's interesting. By my monitoring (from the beginning of the original thread) that isn't the case. There certainly has been some good timing on some particular calls earlier in the year. But then most don't have that good timing. I would welcome people to post their trading performance. After costs and effort I suspect only a few will have beaten the index.
    An asset class performance blanket is worth looking at. So is the data around timing the market, when the gains happen etc.
    "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." -Peter Lynch
  5. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Durabo in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    I'm not trying to be right. I'm trying to be objective. You're taking such a hardline and extreme stance (noted by your previous post to me). I don't disagree a downturn/recession or whatever you want to call is due. Nor that generally it is messed up out there. Why I'm on the forum after all. But then I'm open to the plates being spun and can's kicked down the road for however long. I like to question and probe to keep myself grounded and open to other eventualities. I actually get stuck into the data rather than just read a headline or skim an article.
    Kudos on the returns for this year (it's been a good year for every asset class thus far). But how about the year before and the year before that etc. Data suggests sitting on the sidelines/bearish camp waiting for the downturn isn't a reasonable tradeoff. In fact it is quite the penalty. Yet you believe otherwise? Your aim is double the money? You could have doubled it already in the meantime. By the time the 50% downturn could happen, how much time and money has gone by? Why be so heavily invested in a single asset class/region that a downturn will even register as more than a time to get more assets cheaply?
  6. Cheers
    A_P got a reaction from Tdog in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    AJ Bell have a regular investor feature for £1.50 a trade. Just turn it off after each trade. Aj are one of the most competitively priced for a SIPP. I'm thinking of moving mine from II to them next tax year.
  7. Informative
    A_P got a reaction from Bobthebuilder in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    AJ Bell have a regular investor feature for £1.50 a trade. Just turn it off after each trade. Aj are one of the most competitively priced for a SIPP. I'm thinking of moving mine from II to them next tax year.
  8. Informative
    A_P got a reaction from M.C. UK in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Somewhat disingenuous. Given the time, the world and all the changes that were going on etc. The stock market returns averaged out certainly weren't that bad. In fact they had a very good ROI. I'm not going to go digging for it, however from memory returns were quite significant by 1933 let alone accounting for total returns over the proceeding years. The average yearly return has been something around 10% (again from memory)
    trackers will not underperform the market (bar a nominal tracking error). They track the market by their very nature. as the indices change the trackers will so to match. Only a few will be able to outperform the market. The whole point of trackers is investing in the market long term. Total return is key. i suspect any given year(s) could be nasty any asset class or location, but over years it gets averaged out
  9. Agree
    A_P reacted to horridbloke in Things can only get shitter   
    It is a fine movie.

  10. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from twocents in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 5   
    Similarly explained in this short video
    Yet so many in light of everything still find themselves unable to see it.
    Easier to blame Brown/Osborne for everything lolz. Next will be McDonald's or whatever his name is 👍
  11. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from M.C. UK in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    This post has so much truth it.
    Stokie you're probably in the top 10% when it comes to wealth. You have an in demand, secure, well paying job. Live in a low cost of living area and don't live beyond you're means. In a far better position than most. Simplicity really is the tried and tested method. Probably a lot easier on the mind and soul too
  12. Informative
    A_P got a reaction from M.C. UK in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Here she comes eh? https://wolfstreet.com/2017/11/15/why-core-inflation-rose-why-itll-rise-further-and-what-it-means-for-fed-rate-hikes/ (notice the date)
     Also seems a bit hyperbolic, when it says by rather than to, additionally when it's basically at the same made up level from a year previously, and the year before that etc etc.
    Does Mr Wolf ever reflect on his previous articles? What happened since this article in 2017 when he wrote about the same thing?
  13. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Bricks & Mortar in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 5   
    Similarly explained in this short video
    Yet so many in light of everything still find themselves unable to see it.
    Easier to blame Brown/Osborne for everything lolz. Next will be McDonald's or whatever his name is 👍
  14. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Melchett in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 5   
    Similarly explained in this short video
    Yet so many in light of everything still find themselves unable to see it.
    Easier to blame Brown/Osborne for everything lolz. Next will be McDonald's or whatever his name is 👍
  15. Agree
    A_P reacted to Melchett in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 5   
    Something this debacle has opened many people's eyes to is Douglas Adams maxim that the purpose of politicians, especially the leaders, is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it.
  16. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Melchett in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 5   
    What they say and what they do are two different matters completely. The pols don't run the country.
  17. Agree
    A_P reacted to gibbon in House Price Crash in 2020   
    Got a mate in his 20s, complains that there's no way to make money, everything is sown up by big business/old money and all the good ideas taken. I try explaining to him that the internet alone in the last 25 years has probably created more millionaires out of nothing that the last 250.
  18. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from gibbon in House Price Crash in 2020   
    If being the operative word. And if they do increase there would be a number of reactions. Ultimately people will continue to be at the limit, whatever that level may be set at. There is no changing human nature. If it's not an audi next time it will be the next cool thing must have status symbol. 
    Seems to me that message to children is setting them up to fail. That's not how life works. Just like sticking them in the public school system with another 34 children to be babysat puts them on the backfoot, and on the treadmill from the get go. There is plenty of incentive and opportunity to climb out of plebville. I don't think the last 10 years has there ever been such opportunities afforded to the common man/woman, even from one's own bedroom. 
  19. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Bobthebuilder in House Price Crash in 2020   
    Certainly is boss. I'm merely suggesting there are other ways to look at buying the house even one may be able pay cash. I get from your posts on the subject you're not comfortable with paying/buying. 
    I'll bow out now. Fingers crossed you get the hpc in 2020 
  20. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from UnconventionalWisdom in House Price Crash in 2020   
    Merely pawns. They're not the one's pulling the strings and making the decisions. They only deliver the message. Olly walking into the squid says it all.
  21. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from gibbon in House Price Crash in 2020   
    If you really don't want to I wouldn't. You're not going to enjoy it dealing with tradies and all the hassles and expenses that comes with owning. We've had some tradies out quoting for work we plan on doing and I've been thinking that two bed apartment we were just in was quite cushy, why did we leave it . Could of had that 30% deposit sat in a tracker. The rates bill turned up the other day. £800 for the remainder of the year but at least they gave us 4% discount for paying in full lol. You'll easily be able counter the financial aspect give your overall position.
    Just to clarify I meant on top of global equity tracker you could put an allocation into a global property fund (eg iShares Glb Prpty Secs Eq Idx (UK) D Acc) as a replacement for your "owning" 
  22. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Kwyjibo in Premium bonds   
    Considering who that member is I'll take the claim with a pinch of salt unless they prove otherwise. I'd welcome to be corrected though.
    There are better places to put it even for the risk averse imo. With the said they do have a place for certain financial positions. 
  23. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Van Lady in House Price Crash in 2020   
    That it does. There are some genuine people out there, at least you can walk away if they want to take the piss. Sometimes worth paying bit of premium if you know the place and like it, versus getting a discount and then walking into the unknown (problems). 
    Wouldn't hurt to ask about the apartment above at least, nothing to lose really
  24. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from JoeDavola in House Price Crash in 2020   
    That it does. There are some genuine people out there, at least you can walk away if they want to take the piss. Sometimes worth paying bit of premium if you know the place and like it, versus getting a discount and then walking into the unknown (problems). 
    Wouldn't hurt to ask about the apartment above at least, nothing to lose really
  25. Agree
    A_P got a reaction from Frank Hovis in House Price Crash in 2020   
    Yes I do as we just bought
    With that said, these are the prices. It's just not worth the mental energy worrying about a HPC or stock market crash. What will the prices be in 10, 20, 30 years etc?
    I'm of the opinion there will be down years but there will be many more positive years. Play the long game. Don't go balls deep especially into the local economy if one's job, house etc all depend on it.