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About UnconventionalWisdom

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  1. Erm, can't tell if this and the other article you posted are trying to say, "there are ways to get a house, it's easy", or whether it's describing to the masses how bonkers the housing market is.
  2. Bullion vault is good for this reason, you can keep it in a foreign vault and hopefully mitigate somewhat against confiscation.
  3. I've mentioned him before but Ray Dalio's books have helped me understand what's discussed here. Here's a good intro to debt cycles and the economy.
  4. Mike Maloney keeps on mentioning the ratio. States in his latest video that he expects more demand for silver due to a reduction in copper (housing) and lead/zinc (cars) mining.
  5. I'm also fascinated by it, not only for trading but life in general. We make so many decisions based on what we think is best, but in reality, it may be in our nature that makes us choose the wrong path. Loss aversion, valuing losses more than gains, is why most people don't do stocks. But looking at this more broadly, I'm sure its why people don't change jobs, partners or other things where they have the potential to be much happier. Loss aversion is shown in monkeys and hence really does indicate it as some underlying part of our nature. From the following link https://www.psychologicalscience.org/observer/monkey-business To test for this bias in capuchins, the researchers positioned two types of traders in the monkey marketplace. One trader always offered two pieces of apple — for clarity’s sake, we’ll call him Larry Loss, though the researchers used no such name. Upon receiving a token, sometimes Larry Loss handed two pieces to the monkey, but sometimes he removed one and delivered only a single piece. A second trader — let’s say Bonus Bob — always offered one piece of apple. When given a token, Bonus Bob sometimes delivered the single piece and sometimes added a second, extra piece. Sure enough, the monkeys preferred to trade with Bonus Bob, approaching him 71 percent of the time. On the heels of this finding, Santos and collaborators studied a related behavior called loss aversion. Generally speaking, this concept states that people will go to great lengths to avoid losses, which have a stronger psychological effect on them than gains. To test loss aversion, the researchers brought back Larry Loss and paired him with a new trader, Even Stephen. Once again, Larry Loss offered two apple pieces. When the monkeys paid him a token, however, he delivered only one piece every time. Even Stephen, on the other hand, consistently showed one piece and, once paid, delivered the piece as promised. Although the payoffs were identical in the end — both traders always parted with one piece of apple — the monkeys disliked the disappointment associated with Larry Loss. As a result, they traded with Even Stephen 79 percent of the time. Put together, the findings suggest that hallmark biases like reference dependence and loss aversion extend “beyond humans and may be innate rather than learned,” the authors concluded in a 2006 issue of Journal of Political Economy.
  6. I do wonder whether this has been a long term plan that has been amazingly implemented. My parents and the adults in my life growing up couldn't help me with finance advice. Was going to buy a flat in the south east and everyone was like do it, can only go up in value. I had reservations and it was my aunt (an ex nun who was travelling all over the country and eventually quit before the final commitment) who was like, "don't tie yourself down to a job/area, especially when you don't think it's a good idea to buy a tiny flat".
  7. You seem so clued up with your career and understanding investment early. It's impressive... Wish I had started earlier-just under 10 years older than you and have spent the past few years trying to make sense of it all. A load of posters here emigrated from HPC, wish I could afford one is a great poster there who helped me. Here's his eBook which I reccomend as a starting point. It's a good introduction. https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B01N6FT93S/ref=cm_sw_r_wa_apa_9PQRAbAM4Y2BA This thread and the main posters here have helped me no end but there is still a lot to learn.
  8. Another mainstream article describing what @DurhamBorn has been talking about for a couple of years. Interesting times over the next 6 months. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-14/-land-of-confusion-as-junk-defies-wall-street-recession-signal “Debt costs are likely to rise as credit spreads expand to price in the higher default risk as we move to the end of the economic cycle,” Park said. “If flows were to reverse liquidity could become squeezed quite rapidly.”
  9. Those films about British men have painted a nice picture of us. I used to teach English in South Korea. I was dating a hot American and my Irish mate a hot Canadian. They loved our accents--we were like, they should never visit our home countries.
  10. Interesting article on recessions and how the next one won't be like the past. Not much new to the thoughts expressed here. Pretty obvious but debt can't expand forever. https://oftwominds.cloudhostedresources.com/?ref=https%3A%2F%2Fgoldsilver.com%2Findustry-news%2F&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.oftwominds.com%2Fblogfeb19%2Fsell-everything2-19.html&width=360 No longer content with blowing one credit-speculative bubble at a time, central bankers coordinated their efforts in 2009-2018 and inflated the Everything Bubble. But the Everything Bubble didn't resolve or even address the multiple structural imbalances in the U.S. and global economies; it merely papered them over with a triple-whammy credit-speculative orgy of unprecedented enormity. Unlike the 1970s, 80s, 90s and 2000s, wages (earned income) did not rise for the bottom 90% during the Central Bank Everything Bubble 2009-2018: it isn't just the stock buybacks and other financier speculations that are funded by debt--a great deal of consumption that was once paid out of earnings / revenues is now paid by debt: higher education, paving of roads, auto repairs, etc. Rather than restructure the economy, the political and financial elites have papered over the imbalances with debt . Debt, we're assured, is harmless; we're going to "grow our way out of debt" by borrowing more. But borrowing more to consume more isn't increasing productivity, and this is one reason why wages have stagnated and prices have soared in the past decade. The instabilities and imbalances of economies can be papered over with debt for a time, but debt and financialization tricks don't actually fix what's broken--they make the problems worse. Welcome to the recession of 2019-2021, when central bank policies are finally revealed as the' source of half our problems rather than the solution.
  11. Someone asked him about the total values. It's interesting how low gold is as a uk's percentage of reserves. I think the BoE sold a load a few years ago but this is shocking compared to US or Germany.
  12. I can buy but with a 10% deposit and a big mortgage, it would be a one bedroom flat. It's more that I'd be tying myself down to the job/area for a small place that wouldn't make me happy. I'm in the south east so could move to the midland or further north and get something reasonable. But it still annoys me that I'd have to move to get somewhere and that those whose are unable to leave the area are effectively force to rent for good.
  13. The banks and politicians have played a blinder. My grandad was Ukrainian, taken by the nazis at the end of the war as they wanted to train people to fight against the Russians. Luckily it didn't last too long, and he didn't have to fight but was at a training camp. However, despite not having a choice he couldn't return home as the Russians would have punished him and was offered to come here. Despite having no English or penny to his name upon arrival, he worked in a factory and after a few years could get a nice family house. This is much more than what I can hope for without getting into stupid levels of debt despite going to university to study physics, subsequently getting a PhD and having a good engineering job. Sheer madness.
  14. Like they were stupidly proud of their kid for going to a sub-par university to study a nothing subject.