UnconventionalWisdom

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About UnconventionalWisdom

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  1. Like most things in life, people need to focus on the outcome. Did this help the guy get what he wanted... No. So didn't achieve what he wanted.
  2. UnconventionalWisdom

    I’ve bought a home..

    Life is about being happy. If you are happy living there, who cares what house prices do.
  3. I went to a talk where the guys at Ocado were showing this off and saying it could be adapted to grow food in a factory environment with artificial lighting under each compartment. Could lead to urban farming. They seemed more keen on selling the idea rather than developing it themselves.
  4. UnconventionalWisdom

    Reddit discusses UK House prices

    Me too. People have had the "get on the property ladder at all costs" opinion shoved down their throats for so long that they will do almost anything. I was looking for a flat a few years ago in the SE and was shocked at the crap I saw.
  5. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Are you familiar with Ray Dalio's debt cycle explanation? Seems to agree with your outlook on what's happening with the deleveraging and revert back to a Reflation where debt is used to produce more useful things. I hope (and believe) you are right. I'm sick if the madness and can't believe people think I'm the mad one when I say a one bedroom flat isn't worth nearly £200k. Heres an article on Dalio's take on debt cycles: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225374-ray-dalio-debt-cycle-will-end-soon Stage 1 is the “good” part. People borrow money, but not too much. They use it for productive purposes. This helps the economy grow and lifts asset prices. And that’s where things start going south. In Stage 2, which Dalio terms the “Bubble,” people look at the recent past and decide asset prices, total demand, and consumption will keep going up. They overconfidently borrow more money and start having too much leverage. Stage 3, the “Top,” occurs when central banks, regulators, and sometimes even the lending institutions notice problems. They take measures: raise interest rates, tighten lending standards, and so on. Stage 4, the “Depression,” happens when growth slows or reverses beyond the ability of monetary and political authorities to help. Yet they keep trying. This is when we see interest rates go to zero or negative. The central bankers are out of bullets at this point. Everyone just has to suffer. Stage 5 is the deleveraging phase. It is when businesses and families reduce spending to pay down debt and reduce their leverage. It can last a long time. But as leverage falls, people get a handle on their debt service costs and slowly start to recover. Eventually, the economy reaches Stage 6, normalization, and the cycle repeats.
  6. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Let us know how it goes. Maybe one for the isa next year. The costs put me off frequent trading so I wait ages to put a load in. This could be handy. Their homepage has examples of: rightmove, amazon, Netflix and tesla. Moths to a flame, right?
  7. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I'm feeling the same about giving up. How can this continue? FTBs are priced out and there's a massive downturn in BTL due to the tax changes. How are prices still going up?
  8. UnconventionalWisdom

    9/11 Case to Reopen

    Saw this and it made me think of this thread: https://www.rt.com/usa/448058-dark-overlord-leaks-11-september/
  9. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    This article speaks of a similar future http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/01/the-crisis-of-2025.html?m=1 I am guessing the political movement demanding QE for the People will come to power by 2021. The money creation will begin in earnest and a few years later, inflation will start rising, much to the surprise of proponents of QE for the People. At that point the proponents and the ruling elites will be trapped: they won't be able to withdraw all the benefits ("free money") of QE for the People, nor can they reverse runaway inflation without drastically reducing the creation of currency. Various politically expedient policies will be tried--wealth taxes, the issuance of a new currency, perhaps even a state cryptocurrency--but none of these can reverse the underlying dynamic. The currency devalues and then collapses, along with the "wealth" that it represented. This is the predictable path because it's the only one that's politically expedient and doesn't cause much financial pain until it's too late to stave off collapse.
  10. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Powell has been keen to stress that he will support main street at the expense of wall street. Supports your theory. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/01/02/powell-may-mark-the-beginning-of-an-independent-fed/#15fdf8d16779
  11. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    It's interesting. Liquidity is reducing due to the Fed's QT. I would expect the miners to also be hit a bit as liquidity reduces. There's been quite a few days where it's doing the opposite to that of the dow.
  12. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Some fascinating graphs and figures here about 2018 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-year-in-money/?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business
  13. UnconventionalWisdom

    1371 Days of QE just ended (for now)

    It's amazing that so many young people think getting an over-priced decorated prison cell will be the path to a big house. Not surprising though as older people state they did this even though they thought it was too expenses and that their renter mates that didn't got left behind. Hopefully, a falling market will teach people some lessons.
  14. UnconventionalWisdom

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Me too. Was so clueless before reading TOS and DB's thread in particular
  15. UnconventionalWisdom

    Wolf St: UK Prime Regional HPI -0.9% Q4 2018

    I love that the mainstream continue to blame brexit. We can see QT coming from the fed. They know that we have to follow suit at some point or the pound goes. Global liquidity is drying up and this is hitting debt-financed bubbles. Stating that would be an admittance that they made a mistake. I know most people think that they will reduce rates on brexit, but I wonder whether they will use it as an opportunity to raise and then blame brexit. Monetary policy begins to align with the fed and they can lay blame on the people.