UnconventionalWisdom

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About UnconventionalWisdom

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  1. Just to add, I think that usually one can increase economic activity by reducing rates and QE. If your rates are at the floor and you get a crash, it would be difficult to justify more QE if it lead to economic collapse. Once rates are low and a recession hits, theres no way to make money cheaper and easier to borrow. In this environment the government has to put money into the economy to get it going again. "Big debt crises" by Ray Dalio discusses this with the long term and short term debt cycles. Well worth a read
  2. People are greedy bastards and think that over extending themselves will lead to more riches with further house price inflation. Greater fool theory.
  3. Living standards are being kept high due to low cost of borrowing. Most people in Audis cant afford them outright. If rates rise, people swimming without clothes will get caught. The issue comes when you tell kids to work hard at school, get good grades, go to uni with a massive price tag and after doing that, you will end up in a shared flat with a load of strangers. No incentive at all.
  4. This video on debt cycles by ray Dalio explains a lot. People overdo it. Leading to a big problem when the short and long debt cycles both come to an end (ie. When you cant lower rates to increase economic activity).
  5. Btl created demand for shitty places that people dont mind living in for a year or two. The support for these cretins has caused so much damage.
  6. I doubt they will tax income from renting a room. It alleviates housing demand and provides people with low incomes the chance to have somewhere to live. All needed to stop people from getting really angry.
  7. I'm not sure they will have a choice. Bread and circuses. Keep the people well fed and entertained and they can keep the status quo that benefits them. If they know housing costs need to come down to keep people happy, they will do this and get out whilst they can still make money. Leaving idiot btlers to take the hit. Corbyn wouldn't stand a chance if getting a good education and job would provide a good standard of living. If things dont change, a much more radical left wing leader could easily take advantage.
  8. Life is so precious, I can't understand why people accept being treated badly by anyone. I'm best man to my mate and was on the stag do last weekend. Mate was texting his misses too much so someone took his phone. He got it back when we entered a club. She gave him shit for not replying (her dad's in hospital but it's not that serious). She made him feel guilty and gave him shit. I had to say, "mate, this is the next 50 years, are you sure you want this. I'm worried you arent living the life you want to live, in order to make her happy. Today is your day to enjoy and she is ruining it. Are you sure this is what you want?" He tells me they have had long conversations this week and sorted things, but I'm extremely worried.
  9. My opinion is that you are somewhat right. It will go up as the cost of building houses from scratch goes up. But, if we have the situation where credit has been so easy, there isn't correct price discovery. This pushes the price well above fair value as people are happy to extend themselves, or worst leverage up, the cycle become self-fulfilling with people continuously bidding the prices up even further. Eventually, there is the realisation that theres not enough credit for future gains and people sell to ensure they get a sale. This leads to further declines as everyone is worried the prices will continue to decline. This reduces the available credit and leverage, leading to further price reductions. This could go on for years. Ultimately, if prices hadn't got so out of whack, I would expect them to increase as home materials increase.
  10. I stand corrected, quick Google and America is mainly grain, but Britain is mainly pasture.
  11. The veg is British and I do my best to get british grains (the popularity of quinoa is causing problem for Bolivians who use it as a staple). Veggie/vegan diet may not be perfect but a lot of the grains/soya from the other side of the world are fed to British cattle. They eat 10-15 times the amount of grains to produce the same weight of beef compared with the grains. Fair enough if you are eating for the taste/nutritional content, but it's not environmentally friendlier.
  12. I lived in Korea for a year. They eat kimchi at virtually every meal. If this is true, the rates in Korea would be so high.
  13. Just reading up on Bury FC's problems. Turns out loans for developing property were taken out with the club's ground as collateral. New owner takes over and also makes money by developing student flats- that also lost a load of people money. We've known here and on TOS that property is a zero sum game and cant lead a country to prosperity, but hopefully the mainstream are starting to realise this. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/26/bury-britain-gigg-lane-brexit
  14. Not sure about that. German trains are often late. I love that they have regional tickets and the price isn't too high, but I am shocked at how often they are late. Theres a joke that if you want to see German efficiency, go to Switzerland