Solzhenitsyn

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  1. That’s quite a sweeping statement. I work in the oil & gas exploration sector and my PhD has been very valuable. It gave me the opportunity to learn things that I’d say netted me at least 2 jobs earning £80-100k a year that I wouldn’t have gotten otherwise.
  2. Thank you very much, just going to put a brew on and do some reading up on your post. very much appreciate you sharing DB
  3. Nope. Not the narrative at all. Narrative is that banks are starting to fear a top is in for house prices - so not willing to lend as much to developers. Particularly smaller ones less able to survive a fall.
  4. Hi DB, im really interested in the indicators you use. I’d like to learn more about this in general. I totally get that these are your indicators given to you by a friend and you don’t want to share the exact recipe, but if you could point me in the general direction of where I could start researching into these I would be really great full. Even just general how many indicators you use and what they generally approximate/track would be useful. What types of data feed into them and how much data is publicalky available vs how much would need to be purchased. id really like to explore the macro picture and it’s usefulness as an accompaniment to my price charting. cheers
  5. Interesting you should suggest this. A colleague and myself were discussing this about 3 years ago. We’re pretty much convinced that’s what will happen. Every year closer to a field being shut down, the operator has to hold a larger % of the abandonment costs in Escrow. This means eventually the operator just wants rod and will shut the field down. This often removes a big chunk of local infrastructure meaning smaller satellite fields cannot be developed. i think UKGOV will eventually underwrite all abandonment costs and take ownership of the infrastructure. They’ll then likely outsource the management of the infrastructure to a private company / public-private partnership that manages the facilities in return for a modest (but guaranteed) level of income.
  6. Yep, second only to Yet-to-Find numbers. I also work in O&G, subsurface (exploration). currently working the North Sea. U.K. The OGA regularly release estimates of billions of barrels YTF potential for the North Sea, what they don’t consider is that much of it is in tiny accumulations. same for the undeveloped discoveries...who on earth is going to develop a 12mmboe HPHT condensate discovery ?!? Still money to be made in the North Sea for small focussed explorers, but I just don’t see the growth potential for the majors. $200 oil might help recover some of the small stuff I suppose, assuming finding costs & capex/opex don’t similarly inflate! rig rates still nice and low however, we currently have a semi-sub on contract for $100k per day. That’s less than 1/3 of the cost compared to just a few years ago
  7. Interesting comment on the Twitters re credit availability/lending to House builders in the US...
  8. Nice little chart here showing $\Gold ratio. A breakdown at resistance due to weakening $ would be very bullish PM’s and would fit nicely with your thesis that dollar peak is in and we’re Heading down to 84/86 dxy.....
  9. A broader sell-off could be years away though. Yield curve for instance looks like it could be 6-months away from inverting at least - then typically have a delay between timing of inversion and recession. The economy is in a bad way, but the markets still look strong, for now. We have no way of knowing the timing, but just to be cautious and looking out for it. That's a lot of potential growth to miss out inbeteween. Think of it this way. Had you bought in a .25p, you'd now have a close to 200% buffer against any future falls (price is 0.73 as I type).
  10. Just took a look to see how my Infrastrata investment was getting along. Doing very nicely. Strong chart. up 176% since I flagged in over on the other site. Just a shame I only allow myself to put a maximum of 1% of my portfolio in any of these AIM minnows. Hope some of you are making money on this too.
  11. Hi DB, A good alternative to URA is Geiger Counter Ltd (GCL) trades on LSE so no issues buying I now use GCL plus I buy equity in a select few of the miners such as Fission Uranium Corp.
  12. It is a difficult one Sancho and something I’m looking into - similar to you I have an investment in Nutrien and also Intrepid Potash (IPI) as a way of gaining indirect exposure to soft commodities. I’m looking at COFF at the moment as way of gaining exposure to Coffee. Currently priced at $1 but was up at $5.3 in 2011 - it’s had a hell of a bear market but I’m trying to figure out why, and might it be expected to rise in a reflation. But similar to WEAT the ETC works by replicating a futures index. Im still looking at a way of getting into an ETF that provides access to equities in companies farming soft commodities - no luck yet but I’ll let you know as and when I find stuff. If you’re into uranium then I heard there is a new physical uranium fund “yellow cake” being setup in London soon which should have great potential.
  13. Wheat & Uranium are things I’ve been adding to recently. Also, OSTK - very interesting (and successful) internet retail company which is looking at developing/implementing Blockchain tech. But unloved at present with all the negativity of the crypto bubble etc but could well be a major growth company. We’re still going to be buying things - even if the deflationary bust happens. Retailers that can be efficient will be the winners.
  14. Nice chart. On the face of it, assuming M1 velocity follows previous trends, this would suggest the recovery has not even started yet. That would be very bullish for markets I think. another insightful chart is long term history of us markets on a log scale. See how we go through decade long periods of boom/crash before breaking out and going on a massive decade plus long bull run? Kind of looks like we just escaped one of those difficult phases and are about to go on a major long term bull run, it also seems perfectly time with you M1 velocity trend. i guess the question is do we have one more crash before the real bull gets underway? Your M1 velocity chart and those market charts don’t suggest we do....
  15. I don’t disagree with you there. But in London gross yields are now around 3.5% taking into account rental prices if you are buying property today. While individual BTLrs seem willing to take that kind of yield, it is very quickly getting to the point where the maths no longer adds up. if your BTL mortgage interest rate is 2.5% then a 3.5% gross yield (before any expenses) is probably about as far as you can go. It’s unlikely in the medium to long term mortgage rates will be falling. A 1% rise in rates will send most property purchased for BTL over the past 12-24 months into negative cash flow. This is without factoring in S24 and the new minimum rental cover ratios. for London at least, mortgaged BTL is dead. Owner occupiers are limited to 4.5x salary less regular outgoings. Given median salaries in London are somewhere around £35k, property prices have a long way to fall before meeting effective demand. take a couple with combined income of £70k. At most a bank will lend them is £315k. And that’s being generous as I’ve not bothered to strip out regular outgoings from their income. average price of a 2-bed flat is currently around £450k. So they’ll be needing a £135k deposit, plus expenses. Not a lot of first time buyers with that kind of cash at hand. if we look to wanting to buy a simple 3 bed terrace in SW London, you’re looking at £850k. Not a hope in hell without massive equity gains from a prior property. But you can only realise those gains if someone can afford to buy from you. Which the above working shows not many can. without material falls the whole thing grinds to a halt. Which is what we are seeing in London. Either wages need to rise materially to support further growth, or prices must fall. Or of course government could introduce fresh props. Unlikely.