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About Solzhenitsyn

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  1. I only ever invest a tiny % of my wealth in these things. About 0.5%. So it’s shit or bust for me.
  2. INFA doing very nicely again today I see. This is only investible pure play on U.K. gas storage that I know of. Big future in a reflation cycle.
  3. I suppose that’s what happens when you’ve failed to save and all of your “wealth” is in the bricks and mortar that puts a roof over your head. It’s not like you can take one of those bricks into your local supermarket to pay your shopping bill... 🤷🏻‍♂️
  4. Glad to see people making money. Sitting on a gain of over 400% on these now. Even though the amount I invested is less than 1% of portfolio, this stock alone has offset falls in many other much larger investments. Not that I’ll be selling. It’s an all or nothing stock for me.
  5. That’s quite a sweeping statement. I work in the oil & gas exploration sector and my PhD has been very valuable. It gave me the opportunity to learn things that I’d say netted me at least 2 jobs earning £80-100k a year that I wouldn’t have gotten otherwise.
  6. Thank you very much, just going to put a brew on and do some reading up on your post. very much appreciate you sharing DB
  7. Nope. Not the narrative at all. Narrative is that banks are starting to fear a top is in for house prices - so not willing to lend as much to developers. Particularly smaller ones less able to survive a fall.
  8. Hi DB, im really interested in the indicators you use. I’d like to learn more about this in general. I totally get that these are your indicators given to you by a friend and you don’t want to share the exact recipe, but if you could point me in the general direction of where I could start researching into these I would be really great full. Even just general how many indicators you use and what they generally approximate/track would be useful. What types of data feed into them and how much data is publicalky available vs how much would need to be purchased. id really like to explore the macro picture and it’s usefulness as an accompaniment to my price charting. cheers
  9. Interesting you should suggest this. A colleague and myself were discussing this about 3 years ago. We’re pretty much convinced that’s what will happen. Every year closer to a field being shut down, the operator has to hold a larger % of the abandonment costs in Escrow. This means eventually the operator just wants rod and will shut the field down. This often removes a big chunk of local infrastructure meaning smaller satellite fields cannot be developed. i think UKGOV will eventually underwrite all abandonment costs and take ownership of the infrastructure. They’ll then likely outsource the management of the infrastructure to a private company / public-private partnership that manages the facilities in return for a modest (but guaranteed) level of income.
  10. Yep, second only to Yet-to-Find numbers. I also work in O&G, subsurface (exploration). currently working the North Sea. U.K. The OGA regularly release estimates of billions of barrels YTF potential for the North Sea, what they don’t consider is that much of it is in tiny accumulations. same for the undeveloped discoveries...who on earth is going to develop a 12mmboe HPHT condensate discovery ?!? Still money to be made in the North Sea for small focussed explorers, but I just don’t see the growth potential for the majors. $200 oil might help recover some of the small stuff I suppose, assuming finding costs & capex/opex don’t similarly inflate! rig rates still nice and low however, we currently have a semi-sub on contract for $100k per day. That’s less than 1/3 of the cost compared to just a few years ago
  11. Interesting comment on the Twitters re credit availability/lending to House builders in the US...
  12. Nice little chart here showing $\Gold ratio. A breakdown at resistance due to weakening $ would be very bullish PM’s and would fit nicely with your thesis that dollar peak is in and we’re Heading down to 84/86 dxy.....
  13. A broader sell-off could be years away though. Yield curve for instance looks like it could be 6-months away from inverting at least - then typically have a delay between timing of inversion and recession. The economy is in a bad way, but the markets still look strong, for now. We have no way of knowing the timing, but just to be cautious and looking out for it. That's a lot of potential growth to miss out inbeteween. Think of it this way. Had you bought in a .25p, you'd now have a close to 200% buffer against any future falls (price is 0.73 as I type).