azzuri82

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  1. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Musk looks like an idiot right now. The market has called him on his bullshit.
  2. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    No that sounds about right - the article I read didn't specifically mention this but I can't imagine such a share swap would be open-ended - wouldn't make sense I guess unless they got them at a 20% premium and could then sell them immediately.
  3. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Elon Musk's tweet today sent TSLA sky-rocketing! Shares were suspended from trading at $367'ish. Apparently at $369 they can convert over $900million of bond debt (due in Feb 2019) to shares - wonder if the tweet had anything to do with pumping the shares to get rid of the debt obligations?
  4. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Wasn't sure when I seen the Dunelm and the Card Factory charts whether you were recommending these to buy or short. Then I looked at the WH Smith one. Absolutely bonkers!
  5. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    see - https://empresa-journal.com/2017/12/30/can-netflix-ever-make-money/ Netflix is in a Race against Time These disparate sets of figures tell us that Netflix is in a race against time. The company is struggling to grow its revenues fast enough and big enough to cover the losses before the bills come due. Netflix is also borrowing a lot of money to cover its losses and keep the company in operation. Netflix reported $2.522 billion (€2.13 billion) in cash from financing on 30 September 2017. This number indicates that Netflix borrowed around $2.552 billion (€2.13 billion). Not the most responsible strategy for a company with revenues of $10.88 billion (€9.17 billion) and liabilities of $13.62 billion (€11.48 billion) on September 30, 2017. What’s scary is that those liabilities now approach the value of Netflix’s assets which was $16.95 billion (€14.29 billion) on September 30, 2017. It looks as if Netflix has borrowed a mountain of debt, and is now rushing to find ways to pay that debt.
  6. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Just as well I didn't touch those Tesla shorts - absolute insanity stock!
  7. If you don't mind me asking, what sort of analysis do you do when deciding to short a particular stock? Care to share any of your work re: Domino's?
  8. I agree. I think that 'the thing' that potentially begins the unwind of this global debt bubble starts in China. There's too much oversupply in everything over there, massive trade imbalances due to central bank keeping the yuan artificially low, massive IP theft from Europe and North America. Trump's trade war is going to destroy China, and there's nothing they can do about it. For China anyway, what's coming is going to be exactly like 1929.
  9. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    This is my problem with the Model 3 @ $35,000 - if they could charge more for it, they would be, simple. Because they can't, they won't. And because they won't, their business model is toast.
  10. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    His increasingly erratic behaviour could be explained by the incredible rate his company is burning through cash, and I think even Musk knows the writing is now on the wall. They need to both up their prices dramatically which will destroy sales, and ask bondholders for more money/time to pay. I can't think both of these things are achievable in the short to medium term.
  11. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Yep! It is indeed. We're going to find out once these rebates stop whether people actually like electric cars and are willing to pay the market price for them (i.e. it's a fashion accessory / lifestyle choice) or whether sales will bomb as a result. I'm willing to bet on the latter.
  12. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Sorry, I tapped this out on my phone this morning quickly whilst at work and realised it doesn't make a whole lot of sense and conflates two different things. 1. Tesla is basically asking parts suppliers whom have already supplied the company parts at a pre-agreed price for a rebate/refund on the purchase costs of said parts. It'd be like agreeing to buy a dishwasher for your kitchen, having it installed and then asking the supplier for a discount 3 months later. From what I understand, this isn't future parts they're asking for a discount on, it's parts already delivered (and perhaps used/installed on actual vehicles!). 2. The US Government, in order to stimulate technological advancement in the electric vehicle industry, is providing the first 200,000 purchasers of a manufacturer's electric vehicle (subject to spec) a $7,500US rebate when the vehicle is first registered. You can imagine how this rebate has stimulated Tesla sales. I understand that although Tesla don't provide the public with actual number of vehicles sold in the US, total estimates are said to be circa 193,000. So once another 7,000 or so vehicles have been delivered, they'll have to jack the price up of each vehicle by AT LEAST $7,500US, just to stand still as far as cost to the end customer in the USA is concerned.
  13. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-asks-suppliers-for-cash-back-to-help-turn-a-profit-1532301091 Tesla asking suppliers for a 'rebate' in order to help turn a profit. This is for parts already ordered/supplied/paid for! Doesn't bode well. Twin this with the fact that Tesla will soon pass the 200,000 units sold mark in the USA, meaning the 7,500 us government rebate will half and then disappear, and surely the end for this crazy stock is high. Would surely explain Musk's recent 'erratic' behaviour.
  14. azzuri82

    The Big Short Thread

    Interesting moves in Netflix over the last couple of days. Presumably their subscriber numbers in the US have topped out. And with so many other streaming services now available, including Amazon Prime, where else is there for Netflix to go?