Bricks & Mortar

Elizabeth Warren sez.. https://medium.com/@teamwarren/the-coming-economic-crash-and-how-to-stop-it-355703da148b She must read these threads.

I liked this guy.

Short days in November.

Shit! Any tickets on the Night Boat?

Hochschild. And Endeavour.

Scottish Government nationalising a shipyard. A shipyard currently building hybrid-engined ferries for Calmac, the state-owned ferry company. They already nationalised and mothballed an offshore windmill manufacturer last year and have a wave energy company too. Same shipyard also hoping for a frigates order. I think the Scottish Govt know whats up. They're always trying to 'outsocialist' the local Labour lot of course... but they seem to know exactly what they want to nationalise right now and are picking them up for good prices as they fall into difficulty. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-49042463

Hecla Reports Hedges. Hecla's been the dog of my stocks. Bought in early April. Quickly found myself down 40%. Have held on, and even today I'm still down 6%. They had some bad news back in April, about some mines they bought that didn't deliver that they thought they would. Took on debt to do it too. I think I recall someone on here (or maybe elsewhere), writing that their management were idiots. So, the latest is they've hedged their production through to end Q1 2020 at $1400 gold and $15.13 silver. I'm an amatuer, and certainly don't properly understand the implications if hedging. I guess it means they've an extra cost to bear over that period. But, in case gold & silver falls sharply at the end of the year, they're good through to April? Is this something to look for, if a person was considering holding stocks right through the bust, rather than convert to cash in a bank account). (Not necessarily with Hecla - DYOR - at your own risk)

Best of luck for tomorrow then, DB. I do feel sorry for the ones that have over-extended in a reasonable-ish way. Many folk find themselves in situations where they need to do something reasonable... like live in a house... and need some debt to do so.

Excellent point. Some of the predictions on here are for it to end up around $1600. Noted David Hunter latest saying it might go a bit higher. $1600 is only another 12% from where it is now in USD terms. But UK investors should be thinking about the exchange rate - at $1.26 its about as good as its been this decade. And within this thread there are other predictions for the USD to weaken from here. - (12% weakening would see the rate at $1.42 - I think that's easily within the realms of possibility) Gold, in GBP terms, might not get much better from here, (if these predictions come true). * Initially thought I wouldn't do anything myself, because all my miner shares produce both gold and silver - but now thinking I may look at them all again and consider punting the one that produces most gold relative to its silver, to reinvest in something that produces mostly silver. Endeavour is most likely. I should have been doing this 3 days ago! DYOR - I'm a complete AMATUER!

I'm a smaller investor too. Spent about £600 on each of a few shares. I didn't fancy averaging in, and rapidly found myself down as much as 40% (on Hecla). Sure wish I'd spent an extra 2x£12 to do that in 3 tranches. I've decided in future I'll be doing the laddering in/out even on the very small shareholdings I've got at present. I maybe wouldn't on shares that are more stable - but for these miners, that can go up & down 10%+ in a single day, I think its worth it. It'll be part of my strategy for cashing out at the top, (although, maybe the holdings might be a little bigger by then).

This is excellent. Tapping into exactly where my thought process is turning now. And this is our next problem. We're a thread full of people bought into this theory of the future. Many of us invested, in various ways into the final 'crack-up-boom' - mostly in precious metal miners, but also short-sellers, currency speculators and stock pickers for the next cycle. Some of us rank amatuers at this sort of thing. Where is the top? What will it look like for your investment choices? Do you need to 'get out in time?' I'm one of these rank amatuers. I spell it wrong to reinforce that. It's DYOR / Pin your own tail on your own donkey. I fear the peak may have a precipitous drop on the other side. I'll probably not wait for $26 silver, $40 GDX, or whatever other prediction has been made or reposted in this thread. In most (all?) cases, I think these predictions aren't intended as trading calls, but as predictions of the top. They're almost certainly wrong, to some degree, and no-one can tell which side they'll turn out to be wrong on. It probably only takes a single event, like a country invading another, or surprise early QE, to change them. But when I've got my optimistic hat on for the PM's, I've half a thought the top might be later, or less precipitous than, say the S&P and other stock markets. Perhaps the final gains in PM's will be investors getting out of these markets, and piling into PM's, thinking they're a place of safety? The eventual peak being more rounded, and the downturn in PM's caused as investors gradually pull their money out of the space to cover their debts elsewhere. This last paragraph, just a feeling, (that I only get on optimistic days), on my part, and I'll remind you again I'm a RANK AMATUER at this. Hoping this post moves the discussion on to what the top might look like, and how we might deal with it.

I'm not really involved, having sought to insulate myself from this sort of thing. I do have an account at my local (scotlandwide) industrial auctioneers and I'm always scanning to see what comes up. Think the assets of about one construction business a week are coming by, (since about turn of the year). Not making good prices for the gear either. If I wasn't trying to hoard every penny for hard times next year, there's loads I'd love.

I was reading this earlier. I think I'm out of step with the prevailing view, as I think tariffs are a (correct?) response to an impending deflation crisis, rather than the cause of it. https://www.cobdencentre.org/2019/07/for-those-who-dont-understand-inflation/ It brought to me to wondering some more on what does cause deflationary collapse, and I realised I'd diverted about 1/3 of my income to share purchases since I started reading these threads. So maybe its all you lots fault!

She just assumed it was a man.