Bricks & Mortar

I'm still on board with that thesis. I'm thinking it could go any time, but most likely for me is very late this year, (after US election, possibly with the result being trigger), or early next year for the crash. I think the printing so far has taken some of the sting out of it, and it'll be done in less than 6 months. Expect helicopter money here in UK as well as US while it runs. I'm 80% in pm miners for now. Hope to sell out near the top in late October. Sit in cash for a while, or short Nasdaq (single times etf), or maybe just buy usd at post office, one eye on treasuries - but only gambling 25% of cash during period. I recognise my thesis is for a later BK, and prepared to just hold miners if I screw up.

Thankyou Kibuc! I was wondering what was up with my EXK holding and hovering over the sell button when I read your comment. Do you think they missed the bit about the mine shutdowns?

It might. But at least it's not desperately unfair to bright pupils who happen to live in deprived areas. The fact remains, the teachers opinion, based on observation and performance in class tests, is the only measurement of the pupils ability that's been done. What the SQA are trying to pull is based on nothing apart from generalising that kids from these places don't tend to do so well. You can add to the mix, the kids school lives have been turned upside down since March, and only the teacher has seen which adapted well to the new way of working, and which didn't. Entirely possible that kids at crap schools might have improved in just the critical pre-exam period, separated from peer pressure, bullying, and all the other crap that goes on, particularly in the more deprived schools.

There's no evidence any of them are less educated. Their teachers said they were worth a higher grade. The education authority went round schools that didn't usually produce so many high grades, (typically your deprived areas), and simply marked those kids down, "because you live in scumsville." "Sturgeon Resign" is trending on Scottish Titter this evening.

Personally, I think it's more about news that stimulus talks in US Congress have been 'productive', and the prospect of another couple of trillions being dished out to US voters.

Russel Napier podcast. Follows on from his recent written article, featuring his view that we're going straight to inflation from here. https://ttmygh.podbean.com/e/teg_0005/

Lots of roads. All over the country, but most recent was Scarborough to Whitby, during lockdown. I remember that one from childhood holidays, and the views were great, which I was able to enjoy as not watching a set of tail-lights about 50 yards in front. I'm gonna say the one thing that make a road great, is when its really quiet. Worth getting out an about at odd hours for these experiences. Midsummer overnight drives - that sort of thing. Or, rural roads when it's snowing, as long as you're a bit madder than everyone else.

Could be an indication of DB's 'sector rotation' idea - which I think mean different sectors hit their lows at different times, rather than one big crash hitting everything?

I was looking at the reason behind it. Trump announced he's giving them a billion $ so they can start a pharmaceutical production business. That would be exactly what DB predicted at the start of the thread. - govt printing cash and putting it into industry. Well done sir.

People who believe in deflationary collapse, and think it happens soon, I guess. I'm using the 'deflationary collapse' term, because it's the thread title, but the individual people need not even be aware of the term - they might just be thinking in terms of whether the present environment is 'good for metal' or 'bad for metal'. I don't imagine it's much of a stretch to be worried about all those businesses that aren't operating fully yet, or are still restricted, or are experiencing reduced sales.

My speculation: Industrial metals rising - being bought by people who believe in a V-shaped industrial recovery, powered by printed money and governnment promises to point the printed money at industry. Precious metals rising - being bought by people who see future inflation caused by the money printing. Within both commodity classes, there are investors who expect a deflationary collapse, but are putting their money in for now, hoping to get out closer to the top. And there are investors who think it's an inflationary stairway to heaven from here, and are putting their money in for the longer term.

I think the US politicians are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the election, (I mean, the Trump administration, plus all the members of Congress that are up for re-election). I think they have $1.7 trillion (about $4.5K per citizen), in the Treasury General Account, and can imagine that all getting spanked before the election. Who knows, maybe the Fed will even pitch in. So, personally, I'm thinking a mid-winter BK is a possibility. This might mean targets for gold and silver are overshot, and the levels they sink to in the bust aren't as low. That is not to say I necessarily believe they'll be successful, and I'm keeping a close eye on my stops which I'm resetting at 15% below current value almost daily now. Just starting to get worried about shares like EDR and AG, that can't have stops because they're overseas listed and are overweight because they've done phenomenally well.

Not necessarily worse. In a perverse turn of events, there's some evidence nicotine affects the ACE2 receptors and may give smokers a better chance to beat covid to save themselves for later lung cancer. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/nicotine-replacement-therapy/

Quoting my own comment here. I just had a thought. 1931 was the Great Depression. Might there have been a sudden drop in the amount of fossil fuel burned about then?

Not a rainfall comparison, but might be worth reading this wiki on a bad flood in the days before the dam. It's often held up as the worst natural disaster in human history. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_China_floods