NogintheNog

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About NogintheNog

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  1. As someone who was employed in this very industry for 20+ years until 2015 when the bogeyman finally caught up with my employer, it is sad seeing TCG teetering on the edge. However TCG have as we can see been here before, back in 2012-13 when the shares were hovering about this level, but support from the banks enabled them to weather the storm and the European banking crisis. Now apparently the 'profitable' airline is up for sale which will cushion the tour operator side of the business for the future. However I just don't see who would buy the airline, with well paid expensive staff, pension liabilities, and an ageing fleet. As a predominantly short haul fleet the airline has A321 airbus aircraft doing most of the legwork sprinkled with a few A320's and ancient Boeing 757-300's. Long haul served by a small ageing A330-200 series. Who would want the aircraft and the staff liabilities? EasyJet operates a modern A320/319 fleet, IAG does the same on shorthaul. The only value is in the slots, especially at the bigger airports. When Monarch folded in 2017 they had a predominantly ageing A321/A320 fleet. No buyer wanted to buy the aircraft or staff (although the prized engineers survived the bust). The airline was fed to the wolves and the slots then bought up afterwards, primarily by IAG at Gatwick. To my mind Thomas Cook is in a death spiral, with Citigroup saying the shares are worthless! One for the brave! Who dares wins and all that.....
  2. Thanks for the link. Really interesting video on the Devil (deflation) and the Deep Blue Sea (inflation). Will the FED accept materially higher rates of inflation? I think that is a dead cert, I think they fear deflation far more.
  3. Aldi 85% Dark Chocolate, about 8 months ago £1.10p. Now £1.39p. It's up there with Red Wine and Guinness in the essentials category! Strangely this is despite raw Cocoa prices dropping????
  4. Yes I know there has been much discussion on here about shares which are not gold related, VOD, CNA, BT, etc. The gist of my thread was aimed at anyone putting everything lock stock and barrel into the PM sphere, like my friend I refer to! I too would like to see the HTB ponzi finally cave in, I don't see how the current absurd situation continues! But I fear the CB's will somehow keep the plates spinning. I hope that DB is right, and we are seeing the start of a debt deflation and HPC.
  5. I have a friend I've known for the last 10 years or so who is sat in cash and gold after selling a house pre GFC 2007. It has been a painful experience for him watching house prices climb out above his selling point, gold dropping since 2011 and cash being eroded by inflation. I remember him being very sceptical when I was buying BP and Shell shares, but jokes how his mining shares have halved his money! To me having a cross section of investments is crucial, so although I watch the price of gold and silver I'm more interested in the revenue producing shares in my ISA. Some of the biggest dogs in my portfolio are gold miners, stand up and be counted Yamana! However, I try to take the Warren Buffett approach, NEVER LOOSE MONEY. So I'll hang onto these dogs and hope that my friend gets his reprieve also! For me, gold and silver along with the miners are insurance, for any black swan events that will undoubtedly land at some point in the future. Not sure if this video has been posted before, apologies if it has. https://youtu.be/7nSJkwa2lyM
  6. I have Bluefield Solar Income Fund and Greencoat UK Wind in my portfolio. The dividends are 4-5% and they are up about 15% since I bought them. However they are relatively small chunks of my portfolio. I think that is good advice!
  7. Peak Gold??? https://srsroccoreport.com/the-hidden-decline-of-the-gold-mining-industry-that-no-one-is-talking-about/ http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/is-barrick-gold-signaling-peak-gold/
  8. At least Norway has a sovereign fund that outweighs it debt. Unlike the UK!
  9. Okay, so I've had a think about it. Firstly it's clear that Scandinavian countries in general pay much higher taxes for their generous state provisions. In terms of "inefficient private rail companies, bus companies, water companies, electricity companies, home builders and building services contractors" are you seriously suggesting that the government nationalises them all. Hang on, while we are at it lets nationalise Tescos, Sansburys and Waitrose, they are essential services and public ownership would serve everyone! From my viewpoint the local buses and trains are pretty good, I have a choice of gas and electricity suppliers and I have clean water at a fair price. I can't speak for other areas I admit! I just look back at some of our previous attempts with Nationalised Industries and they seemed to always end in failure, with good money thrown in with a seemingly open chequebook. I'm not sure quite how the NUM would have got involved with the UK oil bonanza. My point was that the industry could not be expected to be propped up by UK plc as it's coal product was no longer going to be needed. Possibly those soon to be unemployed miners should have been paid to retrain into the oil industry. I'm sure some would have ended up there. Yes, the sovereign wealth fund of Norway may have been a good idea for the UK. According to Wikipedia in 2017 "With a population of 5.2 million people, the fund was worth $192,307 per Norwegian citizen" invested in global stocks, property bonds currencies etc. You have said; I have to disagree, firstly it's not a multi-trillion pound fund, it is just a one trillion US dollar ($) fund. Put that same one trillion$ into the UK population of 66.7 million and you get $14,992 per UK citizen, or £11,715 per person in pounds sterling.
  10. Yes, that is what should have happened! That recession in many ways helped the poor who had nothing anyway. If they could get into work amongst all the unemployment they may have been able to buy a cheaper house or afford cheaper rent. We have bypassed that whole cycle (well so far....) Recessions cleanse the system, but we skipped one. I believe the majority are worse off as they have had ten years of wage growth below inflation, and zero interest on capital savings. That is why I think we have had no productivity increases since the GFC, as the majority have had to pay all that QE (or the effects of it!)
  11. Yes I saw the Chavez documentary - really interesting. At the time he was with JC all was well in Venezuela, his socialist utopia seemed to be able to move mountains on the way to the ideal society. Of course that's not the case now, as the money that should have been re invested into the countries cash cow (the oil reserves and infrastructure) was redistributed to everyone else but with nothing coming out of the other end in terms of productivity. They are still trying to do that with half the production of ten years ago, as the ageing infrastructure fails and reduces output. The model now looks like the soviet union on steroids! What is sad is that Chavez wanted to do the right things for the poor in his society, of that I have no doubt. I think JC wants to do the right thing also, but his nationalisation model will fail as taxpayers prop up protected and increasingly inefficient industries. What would have happened if Scargill had beaten Thatcher in the UK coal disputes with the National Union of Mine workers, what would we be doing with all that coal?
  12. I can see a Corbyn Labour government doing this, as well as nationalising everything under the sun they don't like. However I think the conservatives at least might understand how increasing deficits to pay higher rates on will come back to bite them in the not too distant future. We may well get a Corbyn government though! Buy Gold and commodities!