NogintheNog

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About NogintheNog

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  1. I'm with you on this Errol. Although my targets are slightly lower and at $3000 gold I will probably start slicing out and re-allocating to big industrials that are still standing. Apparently long-time Fed chair Alan Greenspan once told Congress, “a central bank properly functioning will endeavour to, in many cases, replicate what a gold standard would itself generate.” Unfortunately, bar Paul Volker briefly in the Reagan administration, Central Banks have just kept the party going....
  2. I haven't watched the video, I admit, but Kelton is the current face of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which is ironically not modern. I prefer to call it Magic Money Tree. It's popular with the "free money" crowd of socialists mainly because we are in the deflation phase that lets the government/central bank print money and spend. Conventional monetary policy requires the government to borrow the money on the open market. The main advantage to this is that the market can signal whether the spending is too much by requiring a higher interest rate on the bonds. This constrains the governments in their borrowing. It also restricts consumer price inflation in that higher interest rates tend to reduce the amount of discretionary spending available. MMT doesn't use this mechanism. The main principles are that that the government prints (via the central bank) the money needed for spending. If/when inflation kicks in then the government raises taxes to remove the excess money. Note that taxes aren't used to fund government spending, this is done purely by printing the money. My issues with this are: Inflation stats are lagging so this is like driving a car where the effect of the controls - steering, accelerating and braking - are delayed by 5 seconds. Imagine how hard it would be to make progress. For MMT they would spend and then see that inflation was above the target 6 months later and start to think about raising taxes to reduce it. When inflation kicks in, spending won't reduce. They will try and stop it by raising taxes to take the excess money out of the system. Can you imagine a politician trying to justify raising taxes when spending doesn't change? If they can't reduce the money supply by taxation and destruction of the tax receipts then you head down the route of hyperinflation. See Zimbabwe, Argentina and Venezuela for recent MMT attempts. However, the key to investing is to work with what is happening/will happen and not with what you want to happen. Clearly the government and central banks have started down the road of print and spend so it is a case of trying to work out a way to protect yourself from the shit storm that will come. If they go conventional then expect interest rates to rise to fight the inflation (see Volcker in the 80s) or taxes to rise if they go MMT. Bit behind on this thread but caught up now! Thanks for your excellent reply Wheeler, I think that is spot on as to the directions available. MMT certainly seems to be the preferred option, and the fact that the $US is the reserve currency is maybe why so far we've not seen Zimbabwe, Argentina and Venezuela happen, yet! Regarding; I think this ties in with what George Gammon has been saying, the facts have been manipulated, inflation is far higher and has done more damage to wealth than is realised. Any economic growth has only been sustained by negative real world rates and much more debt. We have all the features of the 1930's but they are disguised. With COVID19 about to get a lot worse...
  3. Anyone see the interview on Channel 4 news last night with economic historian Niall Ferguson and professor of economics at Stony Brook, Stephanie Kelton. She's advised Democrat presidential candidate Bernie Sanders – as well as the progressive Congresswoman Alexandria Occasional-Cortex. She’s now advising Joe Biden’s campaign. The interview is here; https://www.channel4.com/news/economist-stephanie-kelton-on-us-unemployment-crisis-the-only-game-in-town-is-the-federal-government Any thoughts???
  4. HOC and Fresnillo are both listed on the London exchange, so there is tax liability once wrapped in an ISA provided you buy the UK shares. Not sure about the Smith and Williamson Global Gold fund but pretty sure if it's UK based again no tax to pay in an ISA wrapper. W-8 BEN form is for US shares inside a UK ISA/SIPP. I have some American listed miners in my ISA, and have done the form so I only loose 15% tax instead of 30% on US dividends.
  5. Yeah. I know a CSD (Cabin Service Director) and a Purser. The CSD is the top of the Cabin Crew tree on the old contract, and full time would be £50K plus easy! All these grades are way out of sync with the standard rates of pay in the industry. And BA rely very heavily on business/first class across the Atlantic. Where's that market gonna be in the next few years. BA, a pension fund with an airline attached, they are in trouble! Luckily I'm not that friendly with these two stuck up twats, so bring it on!!
  6. Totally agree. They have built a house of cards where the only answer to debt is more debt. Companies and employees have been allowed to carry on with archaic working practices/T&C's/productivity. I was watching the Transport select committee on Monday where a bunch of frankly totally inept politicians where quizzing the infamous ex BA (current IAG) boss 'slasher' Willie Walsh. They were trying to make him commit to not cutting 12,000 jobs and removing archaic T&C's for those remaining. With BA currently burning through £1BN a month, and a completely different landscape for business airlines on the other side of this I cannot grasp for one minute what the agenda of these idiots is, other than being re-elected by their moaning electorate. Willie Walsh wasn't having any of it of course. After this he is likely going to have to compete with EasyJet and Ryannair on short haul, and a load of internationally bailed out state airlines!
  7. I think they are more or less the same thing MrXxxx. I suppose the only benefit to the investor is they are still getting something of value from the Company, but more shares will devalue the ones already there. But there again a dividend cash payment also does that to some degree as the Company is 'giving away' money, hence the price usually drops after an ex dividend date. The real beneficiary is the Company as it retains cash, which in times like this is likely needed to shore up parts of the business. So if for instance Shell goes for a scrip payment, then uses the cash to buy maybe the share that shall not be named! To my mind that may be very good use of that cash that would not have been available without the scrip. The other benefit for the Company is that cash payments won't necessarily come back as re-investment. Whereas it is quite costly for a small investor to sell to cash a handful of scrip shares to realise the dividend. That same argument wouldn't apply to trusts and funds though. I used to get a scrip payment from some Santander shares I had. Started with 100 shares, 7-8 years later I had 135. Sold them all now.
  8. stocks rocketed last month after the FED said it would provide 'unlimited liquidity/support' to the markets.... Yes OCD, they rallied due to the FED statements. However if you read what Troy pointed out; They haven't done enough, and I think during this year we are likely to test new lows and this is likely still going to be a bear market. Those strong rallies are a sign that that's exactly what it is. It's one thing saying you are going to provide 'unlimited liquidity/support', it's another to actually do it!
  9. Ignore it. Why sell for 48 if the price is above that. To be fair this was issued a few days back when the price was lower. But why would you, when in two years the price is likely to be twice what it is now! I took the sell none option!
  10. From the Troy investment report; Last month was one of the best in terms of rallies on markets.....???
  11. Further down that chain I qualified my flippant 'nothing' remark! I said I'd be shocked if they cut the divi, and I am. I watched the stock being dumped this morning, presumably by 'angry from Tunbridge Wells', I wouldn't be surprised to see it up on the day. I need to think about this, because there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the company. Maybe the next quarter is going to be absolutely horrendous. Maybe they are just using the virus as an excuse to skip a divi payment (much like people are using it as an excuse to skip a mortgage payment), but that is a dangerous game. Hopefully, they are eyeing up an acquistion, and looking at the recent bounce in the Centrica share price, who knows? Either way, I was wrong, and if Shell is going to cut their divi at a time like this, which I still think is a storm in a teacup and temproary, I need to re-think my whole income portfolio. Maybe I should lean more towards a permanant portfolio as Harley/Raoul Pal outline. If you are getting penalised for having 100k in cash in the bank, that is going to put an effective yield into gold and bitcoin. I'll wait for XOM, they have always been the strongest financially. Apologies if that post sounded a bit big headed! I'm surprised by the depth and speed and the fact they have cut too. Over a month ago this thing looked a lot more short term than it does now and looking further out it's hard to see where the demand kicks in again. Where does supply/demand rebalance and what damage will have been inflicted on the supply side? That's the key. A lot less demand, but growing. Less supply but not growing, probably for years!
  12. It's been a total fraud since 1971, since Nixon took the world off the Gold standard 'temporarily' They've been blowing bubbles ever since, and when one crashes they just blow another one. There's more printing to be done for sure. We can't get too angry about it, just need to get up and dance!
  13. My brother who lives in deepest darkest Wales has just bought some more woodland. He is effectively self sufficient in heat as his house is heated by a wood burning Arga for central heating and a woodburner. He just needs to generate some electricity!