Alifelessbinary

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About Alifelessbinary

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  1. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I know it’s rough out there, but we’re not quite at the FSCS discussion yet!
  2. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I think you're best off buying the coin most recognised in your country, so in the UK that's silver Britannias. Buying silver is the easy part it's the selling (at the right price) which causes the problems. Based on Demorruptcy's graph it shows that in a bull market silver prices seem to peak and then crash fast. If silver prices do shoot up then 1oz coins are likely to be the best bet, as they'll be the most liquid. Most people can afford to buy a couple of ounces of silver, but if prices 5 bag only a select minority will be in the market for 100 oz bars. Most dealers will buy back bullion coins, but are much more picky with specialised proofs and will rarely buy them even if they sold them. That seems to prove that they think the high premiums are only justified in one direction!
  3. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I thought the video below provided an interesting insight into the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the silver market in the 70's and the subsequent fallout. I love the fact that the brothers held shooting competitions among cowboys on their Dallas ranch, with the winners riding shotgun on aeroplanes delivering bullion to a high-security vault in Switzerland!
  4. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    As Errol has rightly said I could easily hide them in a pocket full of change. Most would be attackers would be more interested in my phone than the odd looking coins in my pocket. Hatron Garden is actually an extremely secure area as it has its own security force. I’d be more worried about coins being stolen by the postal service, or lost by me, than being mugged.
  5. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Ha, I’ll give it a go, but I’m sure the sales asssitant’s eyes will glaze over.
  6. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I’m planning on visiting Hatton Market Gardens on Friday to pick up some sovs. If anyone has any specific questions let me know and I’ll answer them here once I get back. At the moment their premium on sovereigns is up from 3% to 4%, but they are still one of the cheapest places I’ve found and where easy to deal with on my last visit. Anythingwithwheels - I just made exactly the same purchase, so I hope they don’t confuse our orders, unless you ordered more than me!
  7. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Thanks for your updates and expertise in this area, it’s always appreciated. The uso EFT has had a pretty solid run over the last 12 month up 50%, but the long term charts are erratic to say the least! Probably a ride too much for me, especially as I have a few goldies, but I’ll be sticking with some of the big oil firms to hopefully collect some monster divis.
  8. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    What are people’s views on the current Gold/Silver ratio? Gold : Silver Ratio Current Ratio 84.63 10 Year High 84.63 10 Year Low 33.02 10 Year Change +8.66 (+11.40%) After all the talk of PMs recently I got some of my stack out of hiding and was shocked at the discrepancy between silver and gold prices. Seeing 80 odd silver bullion coins next to a solitary gold Britannia really highlights the issue. I hope it’s showing that silver should see some gains ahead, but it could just mean gold is overvalued. I general buy silver as I have a general soft spot for numastics and it provides wealth protection outside of the standard system. It’s also great fun seeing a table filled with coins, as it’s something you don’t see in the cashless society and it feels like you’ve got your own pirate booty.
  9. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I agree with this statement, my only concern that if the NHS crumbles under the weight of people abusing the system you’re screwed. We live in very unsettled times and while I still earn a good wage I’m taking all steps to diversify my investments. While removing ISA tax benefits would likely cause a middle class revolt, I can see the yearly deposit limit slowly shrinking until they disappear. However frustrating it is watching successive governments supporting financial recklessness, I refuse to join the gravy train as otherwise you pass all control to the government who don’t give a shit.
  10. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    For those who are interested you can still trade GDX and GDXJ at AJ Bell. They have followed the market down over the last few months, as you would expect for a tracker, but the volatility is much lower than if you had a concentrated basket of holdings. The wild swings of late have been slightly too fruity for me, so i’m happy with the greater diversity that GDXJ presents, in the knowledge that it rounds both the lows and the highs. I just don’t have the time available to research the market close enough to adopt an active approach, but this thread continues to be a brilliant resource into the area. If you have the conviction to concentrate into a small selection of shares and if the approach is successful the returns can be astonishing. IF!
  11. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Cattleprod thanks for the useful education on the oil industry and I hope you stick around as you provide another angle to think about. Im slightly embarrassed to say I actually own some Hurricane shares, but at least it’s in my high risk account which I view more as gambling than forming part of my investment strategy.
  12. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    The housing market, especially in London, has been facing structural issues for over 12 months now. Strangely developers continue to buy major sites, although banks are being more picky about reports on title and lending covenants. While I sense a growing concern, money is still relatively cheap and land is still seen as a good place to park capital. Having survived the 2008/2009 bloodbath, I’ve seen how quickly things can change, although things have been much more muted the last few years very different from the champagne parties of the last boom. Outside of London I’m seeing quite a few unviable sites (from a developers profit perspective) being propped up via HIF (housing infrastructure funding). My personal view is I wouldn’t be surprised with a 30% nominal drop. In real terms this could be much higher, but hardly anyone bothers worry about adjusted figures as the government has succeeded in keeping most people financially illiterate. At the moment I’m just about to market a zone 1/2 industrial warehouse for a sub-3% yield! Admittedly it has a fairly large outstanding rent review, but it’s still likely to sell for a reversionary yield between 4%-4.5%. Ordinarily my client doesn’t sell much stock, but the industrial market is so bonkers I made a special recommendation. This to me just shows how crazy the ‘everything bubble, has become.
  13. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Can you share a bit more information, as I always like to here from people who have a particular edge in a market?
  14. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Sirius is one of only a few shares I actively trade. I’ve been dabbling since 2016 and it’s been quite a ride. On pure luck i top sliced at 40p, which means I got a fair chunk in my ISA for minimal cost. The next big test is in September when Sirius is looking to secure £3bn, entirely through debt with the use of binding commitment letters. If this fails then they’ll need to turn to investors. If it succeeds there’s talk that the shares will rebase above £1, but if it fails it could easily drop like a stone. It’s still a highly risky play, but has pretty good upside potential (greater fool theory quite possibly). The government guarantee angle is closely aligned with the themes in this thread. I’m not sure a speculative project is the best for the government to support, but it would show they are preparing to combat a deflationary crash.
  15. Alifelessbinary

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    I thought this recent article made fascinating reading. https://pensionpartners.com/gold-bugs-vs-stock-market-bulls/ My passive investments have been very kind to me over the last 8 years, but I’ve recently been diversifying further. I’m now about 7% gold, with my final aim to get to 10% by the end of the year. I’ve really enjoyed researching the gold miners raised on this threat, but with another little one due in a month I’m just not going to have the time to react to such quick moving markets. Luckily GDX and GDXJ is available through Charles Stanley, so at least I can have exposure, in the full knowledge it will average the returns by buying both good and bad. The pizza tangent has been brilliant and I’m very tempted with a mini pizza oven.