Apologies for not contributing much lately, not making any criticisms whatsoever but the thread has focused greatly on gold stocks of late, not something I dare dabble in until we enter a clear uptrend and I don't think we're there yet as see it's liquidity as key in the deflationary bust as folks find their ETFs enter a coordinated algo driven death spiral.
As for where I think we are right now (ALWAYS focused on U.S.), well we've clearly seen the melt up in US stocks take place (and is as of today creaking), almost unprecedented in it's pace of recovery. We're just 3 months away now from seeing the longest growth cycle in recorded history. Recession probability for 2019 now stands at 80% (Ned Davis at 96%). Strangely, despite the incredible dovishness from the Fed which largely served to spur the rally, we're now hearing commentary suggesting we may NOT have seen the last Fed hike, well done @spygirl 🏆 for predicting this. What's crucial to think about is that unemployment turned upwards in Sept, so must pay close attention going forward. DXY likely to strengthen given relative strength of U.S. vs rest of the world, acting as temporary safe haven status, but this could/will turn on a dime once CLOs explode. Narrative already priming a swift return to QE.
So if things snap prior then it's a severe 180, otherwise 1 more hike quite possible, TLT has pulled back from 121 to 119. Pay little attention to the trade war progress as has very little to do with global synchronised downturn now underway, despite the rhetoric. In the UK, manufacturing PMI was positive at 52.0, but don't be misled by this apparent strength vs EU manufacturing PMI in contraction as this is due to historically/RIDICULOUSLY high stockpiling in UK. £ little too optimistic at moment, don't think there's much headroom unless May's vote goes through next week, anything else and I think we're heading back down.
I could go on for hours, but to summarise, we are seriously f*****g close now, so position defensively (I'm a coward so all in premium bonds, waiting patiently)