Barnsey

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  1. So TRY has taken a brief respite following further CB intervention including an interest rate rise, however the contagion amongst emerging currencies continues to take hold, Argentina hiked their rate 5% but that had very little effect at all and the Rupee has just hit a record low. So thats commodities, EM stocks and debt, and the Euro, all down against the USD since April. Common belief is that the USD rally only getting started, and even if they held off on rate rises or even reversed course, the panic is such that it'll still rise until the crisis reaches their shores. We're definitely seeing the start of a global interdependency shock as the US continues with QT. In other news, UK unemployment figure just released now at its lowest since Christmas 1974!
  2. TRY strengthened to 6.46 this morning after central bank intervention of 11 billion dollars but already back to 6.86. Interestingly Yen now strengthening (as predicted), this is only just beginning. M2 plummeting, other emerging currencies weakening, and exposed banks also seeing their share prices fall this morning. Gold shorts up massively, yet gold price not budging, due an upswing soon I think. Edit: @DurhamBorn Just noticed DXY really within a whisker of your 96.5 target, currently 96.42 but touched the 96.5 mark a few times this morning, just wondering what the reversal trigger will be and how soon given much of the current trouble is coming from it's strength?
  3. Hope you've all had a good weekend folks, I feel like I keep banging the same drum at the moment but what's happening in Turkey and it's contagion are well worth keeping an eye on this week. USDTRY has just hit 7.22 in Asian trading, well over the 7.1 level needed to cause a banking crisis. As mused previously, this strength in the dollar will cause much pain in other emerging markets, especially now. Going to be a mad Monday methinks.
  4. Holy s**t, now 6.8! Italian bank Unicredit trading halted after 5.5% fall, and there I was thinking it was going to be one of the Spanish ones first.
  5. Argentine Peso and SA Rand dropping due to Turkey contagion, get the popcorn! Lira has gone from 5.6 to the USD to 6.5 in just 10 hours
  6. Forget the GBP, all eyes on the Turkish Lira today, things escalating very quickly! 6.2 at the moment, if it breaches 7 then domestic banks at risk of collapse, EU banks next, with particular focus on Spain.
  7. Didn't take long for trading to be suspended!
  8. Agreed, they've increased their prices way beyond what's expected, masking it behind their newly refurbed outlets. Not sure how well their drive-thru stores are doing. Pound bakery pretty much filling the gap they left very successfully, just wish there were far more of them around the UK. Do card factory have much of a retail park presence? If not this would make me a little nervous going forward. Interesting to see the recent match up between The Range and Iceland, maybe paving the way for B&M/Heron Foods intergration as they are already under the same ownership? As for Pets at Home, I think their expansion into the veterinary side may well prove very successful due to their market position and strength. I only ever have Dominos using offer codes, worth bearing in mind that their online ordering system already "looks" for an appropriate voucher code for you, so I think most never pay full price, more like 1/3 off at least. Has left pizza hut in the dust when it comes to delivery, which explains their equally good delivery/collection offers in recent years.
  9. The yield curve doesn't necessarily have to invert, it could be argued that we should be looking at the historical yield curve in Japan post 1989 (or US post great depression -> 1960's) for a fairer comparison of where we're at now, during which time there were many business cycles without an inverted yield curve due to economic stagnation, just as we've experienced since 2008. I think far too many are reassuring themselves that they have at least 18 months before things noticeably worsen, but from everything I'm looking at I'd be impressed if we made it through next year unscathed, you never quite know in this new age of QE mania.
  10. I'm sure the yield curve will resume flattening alongside the next hike in September, inverted by end of year with the 2nd hike to 2.25%, and then it's just a matter of how 2019 pans out. If the recovery survives until then, it'll be the longest expansion in history, exceeding 91-01. Many indicators signifying otherwise of course, most recently this: Been reading up algo passive trading, when this thing turns it could/will be frighteningly rapid vs previous market corrections.
  11. I've said it before but Powell won't easily back down, he'll maintain his steady hikes into next year targeting 3%, unlikely he'll reach it before having to reverse course but at least he's built in room to lower. This hawkish path has been boosted further by Esther George replacing John Williams.
  12. DXY on its way back to 96, I was wrong about thinking it was at a turning point, seems it's still got a little way to run, putting huge pressure on GBP/EUR now, and of course emerging markets, Yuan almost breaking above 7.0, a crucial level. Then this:
  13. So we did see the BOE IR rise after all, unanimous 9-0, is my 'one and done' prediction going to be true or will they have time to squeeze a couple more in?
  14. Pretty interesting ain't it, especially the timing?