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About Barnsey

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  1. Yeah talks now underway for bigger firms in anticipation of having to fork out part of the wage bill as of August, some will likely see how the next few months go before perhaps making a decision. Seems this generous furlough scheme has boosted the savings accounts of many well, especially given greatly reduced outgoings. Mad.
  2. He might be right of course, but remember he completely missed that huge decline in March, and I just fear (as he thinks in extremes) that he might miss the next. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m happily sitting this one out.
  3. Yeah, what’s that saying DB keeps citing? “Markets are designed to hurt the most” or something?
  4. Following on from this DB (apologies behind a paywall but you get the jist) It’s exactly this complete lack of fear of any inflation that’s staggering right now, peak complacency.
  6. Where else are you going to put it at the moment? I’m thinking it’s much more about needing the cash rather than relocation. I see Lloyd’s are offering me a savings account at 0.01%
  7. Knight Frank seem to be doing most of the firefighting at the moment. The house I was interested in was a no go, owner would only take £3k off instead of the £30k I was after, definitely for the best, it’s still on for sale of course. Have made enquires about a couple others stating our strong position but apprehension of economic downturn, both replies from the estate agents have said that the market is buzzing and no price drops yet. What I am seeing now is a flood of properties to the market, many of which went sold STC late last year or early this year. I’m following the market closely but taking a step back now until after the end of the furlough scheme and further 3 month mortgage holiday extension, so end of October.
  8. Interestingly the NS&I website is having issues due to “much heavier traffic than normal”, lots of complaints on Twitter from customers trying to pull their money out...
  9. It would be dangerous of me to take that view @MrXxxx as I’d probably go loopy thinking about just how much rent I’ve paid over the years (£100000 over last 8 years in our previous damp, no central heating, mice infested, crumbling 60’s kitchen, 1 bed in SW London, and probably somewhere around £140000 in total over the 14 years I’ve been with my better half). Renting has given us flexibility, and we've had ok landlords over the years. But I’ve continued to rent as many others bought, expecting a crash back in 2016, and here we are 4 years later with activity apparently picking up after the biggest economic shock in a very long time. This in itself simply can’t be possible, which makes me think I’m too early, but how prolonged will a 20% decline in nominal prices be? 2 years perhaps? That’s another £15000 in rent, around 8% of asking price. BOE forecast -16%, Aviva -12%, CEBR -13%, could and probably will be worse, but over how long I ask myself, and what crazy monetary madness will be conjured up by everyone to prevent falls going much further than that? #jaded By relocating to the Midlands we’ve almost halved our rent so I’ve reduced the sense of urgency, and we’re happy in this flat for the time being, but when you’ve waited for your own place for so long, it’s hard to see the wood for the trees, especially when reasonable and calculated expectations for a correction continue to be demolished. They learned a lot from the previous crash about scale and speed. Pre-COVID I was aiming for 15% off anyway as this isn’t a massively bubbly area (big part of planning the relocation), if I can get 12% off and a years rent saved, secure a low fixed rate for the full term or 10 years at least, then I’m pretty much there. If we stayed in the SE then goodness knows how I’d feel right now, but the frustration was enough for me to leave a job I was happy in behind, drag the missus away from her friends, and struggle to settle into the new job, definitely not been easy but I’m sure it’ll pay off long term and fingers crossed my other half seems to be doing ok up here too. Thankfully prior to our 8 year stretch in London we had moved around quite a bit. Thanks everyone for your advice, really helpful, I’ll be implementing it in the weeks and months ahead the best I can.
  10. Just YBS for the moment then, it’ll take a little time for higher % LTV products to come back to market no doubt
  11. YBS & Virgin, I’m sure more to follow once they get desperate
  12. Thanks @Agent ZigZag, deep down I feel like I’m definitely early, but until you enter the market and really get to know what’s going on with your local area it’s very hard to judge the situation. Prices where I am were already down something like -0.5% in the first 3 months of the year so certainly not booming. The plan is 74% LTV, 15 year fix @ 2.22% for entire length of mortgage, and payments not overextended so that I can continue to invest in our reflation strategy over the next couple years at least before things hopefully take off. 5 year old property so subject to being satisfied with the survey it should only require some light cosmetic work, again freeing up spare capital for reflation investments rather than large jobs. As @DurhamBorn and others have wisely recommended, also use this low inflation cheap debt window to buy useful items for years ahead. Lots of moving parts right now fighting each other, the velocity of this shock vs 08 suggests house prices could be equally more rapid in their decline and then stabilise,, so part of my conscience says WAIT but another part says this might be the window, especially if they keep throwing money around. Are we getting a second wave? If so will it be 5x (ala 1918) or a much smaller one? Is a second lockdown even impossible? If this viewing/potential offer falls flat then I’ll definitely sit on the sidelines for a bit longer and resume the search late Autumn after this pent up demand dies down, and everyone who’s taken up a mortgage holiday realises they no longer qualify for refinancing or a new mortgage.
  13. I must be mad but have arranged a viewing for a property tomorrow, one that initially came onto market a year ago, has gone sold STC twice, and now back on for the same guide price but key difference this time is “no upward chain”. I know many of you will say it’s too early, but I’ve mulled over a potential price if we like it, around 13% below asking. Long list of genuine potential issues, but from the tone of the busy estate agent (so many offers rushing in since lockdown was lifted, rushed off their feet apparently), I’m confident my offer will be rejected instantly, even though we’re first time buyers with 2 mortgages in principal and 1 months notice for our rental flat. I could offer even less but I’m also looking at what % a further year of renting would add up to. We’re ahead of the game in the sense we rent on the same development so know the issues well with the area and the potentially patchy build quality. Perhaps this knowledge might scare them off? Just wanted to ask, is it generally acceptable, in an offer email, for me to list all the reasons why we’re making a lower offer to at least back up how we reached this price? I’m certainly not going any higher so it’ll be a one and done. If rejected then I know it’s too early and we’ll take a back seat and continue saving for now.