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Barnsey

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About Barnsey

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  1. A reply shortly thereafter I still think he's underpricing the risk here but perhaps his melt up will occur a little later than expected once again.
  2. I think that was possibly conditional on a 2nd wave being much smaller, we all remember him being VERY slow to acknowledge the seriousness of the first wave and many of his followers losing a considerable amount, now he has 4x as many followers and even stronger conviction along with much more publicity.
  3. As soon as it was confirmed that the stimulus package was a no go before the election (therefore Q1 2021 at earliest), and covid cases going parabolic, radio silence. Coincidence? Much of his melt up thesis relied on a stimulus package being passed asap.
  4. Just a reminder that for the short term at least, the reflation trade is very popular. Makes me think we might have one last shake out.
  5. Jesse Felder has been bringing a lot of attention to this in recent weeks and months, someone I trust above most in his subtlely to look at the big picture.
  6. I think there could be some great opportunities in EM markets if the $ really gets hit hard in coming years, but I am concerned that the years ahead really will be different this time and if inflation runs hot I'm not too sure holding a DM index ETF is a safe play (maybe DAX?). This could be the decade for the active managers to reclaim their purpose.
  7. Good angle there, for logistical reasons alone with a new administration it wouldn't be until Feb at the earliest. It's act now or in 3-4 months. There's also the potential complications with a conservative Republican senate. I'm still on the fence about a landslide win for Biden, polls are closing up again, this election result could easily drag on into the new year if it's much closer. Yeah I must admit I got out of Drax, been bottom feeding knowing full well my infrastructure/inflation portfolio could be hit much harder. Big fan of @sancho panza spray and pray method at the moment,
  8. Certainly is, I'm really testing my conviction of this happening at the moment given central banks and governments already poised to act especially as "no inflation in sight for a long time to come". I was almost certain Dave would be right this year as doubts remained about the ability to act fast enough, and that's pretty much what they managed to do since March. Mr Hunter's premise is sound, I understand the huge leverage, but what if we don't get this final blow off top? My understanding of his expectation is that for a bust to occur, it takes a manic melt up followed by a "policy mis
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