Barnsey

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About Barnsey

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  1. THE big unknown right now, SPX broke and held below it's 200DMA support on Friday for the first time, interesting week ahead!
  2. I can't really make much of a valuable contribution other than keeping a large % of cash aside to jump in at stressed levels, all parked in NS&I premium bonds which have an "equivalent" interest rate of 1.40% currently. Low fee trackers (FTSE 100, MSCI emerging markets) will be a part of my plan after the crash, 0.06% fee.
  3. Think I'll get some GDXJ and GDX soon, about as far as I'm willing to dabble in the miners but seems like a good idea for a modest % of holdings, along with some silver in bullionvault, averaging in when I can but keen to see it drop a little further before I'm convinced of sticking a whack in. Weaker GBP could jeopardise that plan perhaps if DXY keeps holding up through the next few months. I'm thinking the discount food and clothing retailers are really going to push through hard after the next recession, do you still have a favourable view of Next? I'm tempted to pick up some ABF in the rubble, providing their Primark expansion in the U.S. makes it through the turbulence, classier clothing retailers holding up ok over there at the moment thanks to the fake wealth effect but Primark are in a unique position over there when times get harder, with the supermarkets their only close competition.
  4. I have to confess I've resorted to being very crude about it as I don't have life changing amounts to invest, just focusing on P/E ratios, dividends, long term trend lines etc. On that basis, Stagecoach looking very appealing to me right now, Go Ahead less so but standing ready to jump in around 1350. Both saw their shares fall 2/3 in the last crash and are already on their way back to those levels even before we hit another, so not sure how low they'll go?
  5. And average bus driver salary in UK closer to £21-22k per year, I earned £24k in London but has since come down due to mass recruitment direct from EE and retiring drivers on better contracts
  6. Which is why I think there will be many subsidised free bus services in towns and cities up and down the country in years to come to encourage people out of their petrol/diesels, along with the bus companies buying up taxi firms where possible (See Transdev + Green Tomato Cars). https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/estonia-is-making-public-transport-free/ The free Metroshuttle in Manchester springs to mind https://www.tfgm.com/public-transport/bus/metroshuttle
  7. Rapidly becoming less cheap, HTB mania. Very grim town, but now with increasingly mismatched house prices.
  8. Latest LSL Acadata report out: http://acadametricstest.com/services/house-price-index/ 0.9% annual growth for England & Wales, predicted to be negative by year end. Monmouthshire and Newport saw highest gains, due to priced out Bristolians no doubt anticipating removal of Severn Bridge toll. Says we've definitely peaked to me.
  9. You can only fight so much against ignorance, bit like the current argument that the SE housing market is suffering because of Brexit whilst "cheaper" areas of the UK are still appreciating or at least holding firm as immune. Funny how the exact same dynamic is occuring right now in the US, and I'm pretty sure they aren't trying to negotiate a "Nexit". Classic late cycle, areas of highest value/bubbles turn first, desperate buyers relocating to cheaper areas get burnt last.
  10. Isn't it, I've been in this state of continued doom analysis since August 2015, now I wonder where the past 3 years have gone and what I could have done with my time more wisely instead of obsessing over everything economical, but I've learned a lot in this time and do find it (sadly?) incredibly interesting. Because I over-analyse and fill much of every day absorbing hundreds of tweets and articles, FWIW I can reassure that it would take a miracle (I can hear the QE desensitised sighs already ) to turn this negative momentum around. All eyes on next summer being the crucial turning point in the US for interest rates, unless we get a black swan sooner.
  11. Only just found out the firm my company use in London, Green Tomato Cars (a huge presence in the city, now adopting Hydrogen cars), are owned by Transdev.
  12. Absolutely, the Pink Floyd song "comfortably numb" comes to mind. Essentially, everything begins and ends in the USA, until that breaks we all just waddle along.
  13. Have you looked into their new cabin baggage charges? I stay well away from Ryanair now, made great use of em' back in the day when you got genuine £9.99 returns, although I now hear reports the customer service has improved. Just too risky for me with the ongoing threat of pilot strikes etc. Really sad to hear of your view of Easyjet as I still view them as the best in Europe after Norwegian.
  14. Flybe have made 2 big mistakes after a relatively good 3 year run in the aftermath of the recession, got way ahead of themselves buying the majority stake in Finncomm with Finnair in 2011 which they later sold for 1 euro, and big mistake rejecting the takeover bid from Stobart Air. They are a resilient 40 year old airline, essential for the regional airports of the UK, getting rid of their larger Embraer 195s for smaller 88 pax 175s. I'm confident they'll make it through the next downturn, although Brexit will likely be a significant strain for their more recent route expansion and the share price will likely continue to tumble in the interim.
  15. I think Motorpoint will probably position wisely to scoop up all the ex lease and PCP cars in the crisis, as they do now, and take advantage of vulnerable subprime customers thereafter (something else they do rather well). Very much solidifying their place as the Carmax of the UK (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CarMax) if all goes well and they make it out the other end, new car market will be on its ar** for a while to come, some predicting it'll never return as it was due to the changes lined up ahead for motoring in general.