Barnsey

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About Barnsey

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  1. ii have just changed their fees, now have to pay £9.99 a month which includes £7.99 trading credit I believe, so not as good as it was, although trading costs have been lowered too.
  2. Motorists in Coventry being given £3000 per year to take public transport instead https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/motorists-cars-3000-trial-public-transport-pollution-uk-a8836671.html
  3. Yep, looks like the "Standard & Powell" 500 just got clearance for take off! Final melt up here we come, as the fundamentals continue to dive (hence the dovishness)
  4. All about liquidity, so expect further more overt signalling from Fed regarding easing and a return to QE. Of course there are nasty macro reasons why they are doing this but markets really don't care until SHTF.
  5. The stock market is purely liquidity based, and Powell's recent comments have served to defrost credit markets, I thought we had already seen the melt up (S&P now within 4% of 2018 highs) but perhaps it's only getting started. Mr Market both IS and ISN'T the economy, I'm convinced even if there was an asteroid heading to earth, the S&P would still break 3000.
  6. I agree with this message, TEMPORARY flight to safety only, especially given how drastically U.S. will have to ease and print.
  7. How's this for a laugh? You'll be reassured that all the economists thinks it's utter bull this morning on the Twittersphere
  8. Smart money flow vs S&P 500 showing quite the divergence, possibly signalling crash no 2 approaching...(of which there may be a few)
  9. Your post Sancho perfectly highlights the short term flight to $, we're in a ridiculous phase now where everyone's convinced we can have a global recession which excludes USA, when of course those of us paying attention recognise that whilst it may be one of the last to fall, it'll be catastrophic given it's current height off the ground. Interesting to read that credit card interest rates over there are now the highest they've been in over 20 years!
  10. Most folks would scream STAGFLATION but I take it we're still expecting a deflationary bust and then reflationary policy? And just to clarify, are you thinking we're now looking at a slightly postponed deflationary bust toward year end?
  11. Apologies for not contributing much lately, not making any criticisms whatsoever but the thread has focused greatly on gold stocks of late, not something I dare dabble in until we enter a clear uptrend and I don't think we're there yet as see it's liquidity as key in the deflationary bust as folks find their ETFs enter a coordinated algo driven death spiral. As for where I think we are right now (ALWAYS focused on U.S.), well we've clearly seen the melt up in US stocks take place (and is as of today creaking), almost unprecedented in it's pace of recovery. We're just 3 months away now from seeing the longest growth cycle in recorded history. Recession probability for 2019 now stands at 80% (Ned Davis at 96%). Strangely, despite the incredible dovishness from the Fed which largely served to spur the rally, we're now hearing commentary suggesting we may NOT have seen the last Fed hike, well done @spygirl 🏆 for predicting this. What's crucial to think about is that unemployment turned upwards in Sept, so must pay close attention going forward. DXY likely to strengthen given relative strength of U.S. vs rest of the world, acting as temporary safe haven status, but this could/will turn on a dime once CLOs explode. Narrative already priming a swift return to QE. So if things snap prior then it's a severe 180, otherwise 1 more hike quite possible, TLT has pulled back from 121 to 119. Pay little attention to the trade war progress as has very little to do with global synchronised downturn now underway, despite the rhetoric. In the UK, manufacturing PMI was positive at 52.0, but don't be misled by this apparent strength vs EU manufacturing PMI in contraction as this is due to historically/RIDICULOUSLY high stockpiling in UK. £ little too optimistic at moment, don't think there's much headroom unless May's vote goes through next week, anything else and I think we're heading back down. I could go on for hours, but to summarise, we are seriously f*****g close now, so position defensively (I'm a coward so all in premium bonds, waiting patiently)
  12. Without wanting to get too caught up on Brexit, worth knowing that if we want more than a 2 month extension, we need to elect new MEPs.
  13. Some crazy things going on with the weekly Fed nowcasts over in the States this past week, sharp revisions downward, NY Fed just revised down GDP from 2.17% to 1.08% IN ONE WEEK