Barnsey

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About Barnsey

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  1. The one thing I'm not seeing, is any conviction of higher inflation in the coming years, at all. Seems most are convinced that the deflationary effects of an ageing population and technology are everything and here to stay. I'm not as convinced given what we could see central banks pull out of the hat in coming bust.
  2. I won't pretend for one second that I'm an expert on ETFs, but much of my concern surrounds the weighting of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500, arguably the most popular focus of ETFs globally, and the sheer scale of an illiquid selloff should those top 10 take a massive hit. I never underestimate contagion, and as the ETFs become "arrested" in a panicked fall, with bid and ask spread miles apart, I can see actual stock holdings (no matter what they are) also being sold off in tandem as may be more liquid and only source of liquidity in a falling ETF market, especially if not holding more liquid assets such as Gold. Just thinking out loud. Valuable point regarding more of a US issue, but I'm still thinking of the theory of an S&P flight to safety and melt up from other nation index trackers if we see some kind of rate/QE surprise from the Fed as others enter severe recession imminently, whilst the US still stands relatively stable (for now).
  3. Absolutely incredible Twitter thread about NIRP paper recently released by IMF, a MUST read for all on here!
  4. Be careful Starsend, everything else has been inverted for some time! That brief inversion of 45 minutes could be all it takes, certainly been a wakeup call for the Fed, probably the signal to start cutting "bigly", I wouldn't even rule out a pre-meeting cut at Jackson Hole this month. BRACE YOURSELF FOR SOME EXPERT TECHNICAL TRENDLINE ANALYSIS
  5. GDP for Q2 came in at -0.2%, worse than estimates of 0.0%, first contraction for more than 6 years. Q3 confirmed by the Grinch that stole Christmas on 20th Dec. EDIT: Could be 11th Nov actually
  6. Wise words @dgul this really isn't the time to get greedy, there are no certainties, just when you think things are going your way finally is when you get kicked in the ballsack. Always think "what if" and don''t use leverage, I can't bring myself to short either. I don't have much skin in the game, just started my regular investments, which I've now upped to 16 stocks, big thanks to many of you for the ideas (you may think a couple are mad but these are averaging in over a long time so i'm looking well ahead to reflation and ageing demographics): Royal Mail BT Vodafone Centrica SSE William Hill Playtech NewRiver British Land Balfour Beatty Fresnillo Imperial Brands Tui SAGA Stagecoach Standard Life Aberdeen Sold IBTL for profit and put into short duration US treasuries for imminent curve steepening, also have a lump in GDX, GDXJ and Silver (late to the game, whilst there may be a short term pullback, Silver in particular ready for a big spike), but these are short term holdings until the bust when it all probably goes back into IBTL for a few months.
  7. The Germans have finally caved into spending money, reflation QE on the way disguised by green energy agenda! Big move. https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1UY1O3 Germany is mulling a fiscal policy U-turn and considering ditching its long cherished balanced budget goal by issuing new debt to finance a costly climate protection package, a senior government official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
  8. Trend is your friend, yes repossessions have been very low and steady of late, but this upward move not insignificant, and demonstrates real financial stress building despite mortgage rates being at record lows.
  9. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-repossessions/home-repossession-claims-in-england-wales-highest-in-more-than-four-years-idUKKCN1UY1BU
  10. Not just about the USA though, a stronger $ is going to act as a violent accelerant for the global downturn underway, and they'll be forced to cut harder and faster later this year. 25bps just wasn't enough, and due to crazy lags (credit card rates still rising based on tightening from last year) if they wanted to get ahead they should have started cutting end of last year. I'm a big advocate of looking through the MAGA rhetoric and seeing the cracks appear. Chicago PMI shock number released earlier was a shock even for me. Employment/consumer confidence always last to know, also the obsession with 2yr/10yr inversion being needed, well if you look at the swap curve it's already hit very close to the 0 level where it always stops prior to recession. I think we're a matter of just a few months away now (Oct?). Also, the dollar rally today has more than offset the weakening effect of the rate cut and earlier end of QT, so actually looks like they tightened today to the rest of the World
  11. Exactly, they're going to have to do quite a bit more to get that $ down!
  12. And there goes Intu, cancelled its dividend, down 18% this morning. What a bloodbath this week!