Barnsey

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About Barnsey

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  1. When beloved value chains Primark and Premier Inn are reporting lower than expected sales... No coincidence Provident Financial (Vanquis) reporting very good numbers recently, lender of last resort to pay for essentials.
  2. Felt like punishing myself the other day so watched Kirsty and Phil’s love it or list it, middle aged couple with a VERY modest terrace (done up nice like) with no garden in Cullercoats, £375k FFS!!!
  3. Couldn’t quite get to grips with how the whole affordable housing allocation worked in new build estates, the one we’re renting in (built 2014) has a fair bit it seems, didn’t take me long to figure out which ones. Here I was thinking they’d be hidden out of view round the back in small terraces but oh no, they’ve got some nice townhouses near the front. Can only imagine how the neighbours feel after paying 250k+ for their much smaller ones. Don’t want to come across resentful or snobby but most days these lovely residents are just sitting on their steps at the front drinking and smoking, loud music, unkept gardens, dodgy folk coming and going (pretty sure one odd couple are dealers), the playground is covered in graffiti across the road, and yet homes round the corner £350-400k. Roads falling apart with no-one taking responsibility. The brand new estates seem to have even more social housing, 30-40% of residents it seems in tightly packed terraces, surrounded by a few bigger homes, couldn’t believe how much of the site plans were greyed out. Definitely mainly sticking to 80s-90s build areas, but new build expansion is nuts here right now so thankfully I have a great bargaining angle: “why should I pay almost the same for an old house when I can have a new build with a 10 year warranty, en-suite, B rating EPC, just 5% deposit, no work needed at all and all new integrated appliances, buyer incentives etc”. I think that’s how the sheeple think right now which is completely understandable, and why they’re flying off the shelves as older homes sit stagnant with little interest, I genuinely think home sellers haven’t caught up to the reality that new builds are FLOODING the market and drastically changing what their homes are worth. Naturally all issues with new builds don’t take long to arise once you’re committed.
  4. Thanks Burly, we’re viewing a property at the weekend for the first time ever, already have a couple of decisions in principle. Due to recently relocating, new jobs etc, our 3 months of bank statements wouldn’t look that great at the moment so in no rush, 4 months left on the tenancy. Might already get some solicitor quotes as you suggest. Holy crap!
  5. You won't be surprised that Nationwide are using RPI for that red line, whereas real wage growth is measured by CPI, and even using this lower inflation figure they are still under that of the previous recession! So where I am, house prices over the past decade are about 3% above RPI, or 15% above CPI. I think 2010 was as good as it gets for house price reversion hence why I measure everything against that year.
  6. Great point Sancho, hadn’t really thought about this aspect much. Much to my horror, looks like there’s only about 4-6 months of stock (depending on postcode) going by the 12 month figures, so a tight market as things stand.
  7. Sorry to keep banging on about housing, but do you think I’d be mad for offering 2010 price (when current owners bought in the dip) + RPI on a house I’ve seen which has probably had an extra £20k at least spent on it? Thankfully there’s tons of new builds around at a similar price to what their asking, which I hope I can use as a bargaining chip, even though in reality they’re pretty crap, but are the mid 90s built homes much better? Everyone has an idea of what they’re willing to pay for a house, and I still feel like a bit of a numpty for already looking before recession, but if I can get 10-15% off a house in an area that’s “only” risen just above RPI in the past decade (which seems to be the standard measure of HPI) then maybe not a disaster providing I get a long mortgage fix below 3%. VERY conflicted right now but my patience is wearing incredibly thin. On the other hand could I live with myself if I committed now and then house prices even in a non bubbly area like this dropped 25%+ Current thought process: Really do need to be getting on with buying a house after having waited for about 3 years now, mortgage and housing market choice might seriously dwindle in recession, and by the time things stabilise and more of both come onto the market again we might already see inflation and rates ticking up? Last time around the market was flat on its arse for about 3 years with very little coming into the market? Although I don’t doubt they’ll be a little more proactive this time with all the Ponzi schemes. Keep staring at this and thinking things aren’t as bad as before - Lending criteria tightens considerably in a recession and we’re probably at 80% LTV right now, not the 75% and below they lend to in such times of crisis. Other half is Finnish but with settled status, could there be complications at end of transition period if we waited until next year? Also high risk of her losing her job and struggling to find alternative employment in recession (sales job), not that I’m stupid enough to overborrow of course on my single income, definitely playing it safe. All thoughts and perspectives greatly appreciated as always!
  8. 2016 was a mid cycle overreaction, we’re now as late cycle as it gets. If a genuine Boris bounce emerges it’s going to suck a lot of gullible folks in at the last minute, our own mini melt up.
  9. It’s happening folks, it’s arrived... If they cut on the 30th it’s an admission we’re entering a downturn, not sure how they spin this with CEO sentiment bouncing to an 11 year high post election (bo*****s IMO)
  10. Spot on, big banks only. I can get a decent rate on a 10 year fix with 75% LTV, a 15 yr one would be much better though but maybe they’d charge a much higher rate for the certainty. London certainly is deflating, most other places flatlining. Leicester is an oddity along with Nottingham, but then I saw this: https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/corporate/a-picture-of-over-indebtedness-in-the-uk Both right near the top of the list
  11. Luckily I don’t own much Card Factory but what a crucifixion today, mine are down 41%. Retail in general being hammered, looks like John Lewis “partners” won’t be getting their bonus for the first time since 1953! This ain’t just an online shopping story, verge of recession if not already in one, hence Carney’s clumsy speech this morning about likely lowering lates very soon, GBP down.
  12. It was actually down to 791 when he posted that, lots of recent noise about whether it truly reflects recent trade developments but no denying that’s a very clear trend.
  13. Ties in with Neil Howe's Fourth Turning time frame. I think gov-coin is definitely coming and will be a means of resetting in such a scenario, huge debt forgiveness but controlled centrally, nowhere to hide, in the name of the common good. 2032 is when many had predicted China to become the no.1 global economy however that was based on an ever rising trend which is now going the other way, and you can be damn sure the Yanks will do their best to push it out as far as possible. As I dwell on possible getting a 10 year fix, and perhaps longer if introduced this year, what good is it if the bank goes bust and I end up on a Gov bailed out one at a high rate like the Northern Rock customers. There are few certainties but I can't live my life in perpetual fear either, as Mr Howe often says, these turning events are not the end of the world, just a necessary process to give way for a new positive direction.
  14. Good point, I guess I should research how high mortgage rates affected default rates in 70s and late 80s? Surely pay rises would have to at least attempt to keep up with the possible double digit inflation later this decade? Part of my rationale for going for a more modest home is to minimise losses over the next few years. We’re in Stafford at the moment @sancho panza
  15. Unfortunately prices in the decent parts of the Midlands quite a bit more than that DB, but I have seen a couple on for £220k which have been sat on the market for a while and have potential. One is a 1930s 3 bed semi previously bought in 2016 for just £155k (sold for £156k in 2006!) but I reckon they've spent £40k on it including a dining room extension, really wouldn't have do much at all, only thing might be a new roof in years to come (about £8k?). Downsides are that the houses on the street round the corner are a bit dodgy, neighbour's house looks scruffy, and a bit close to the railway (150m but shielded by a couple rows of houses). The other is a 1980s build detached 3 bed, again really doesn't need much doing just a bit of updating, but this one is on the edge of a medium flood risk zone. Has never flooded apparently but seems that all these new build estates being built are shifting the path of flood water through the town and could be issues down the line. Also, next door is for sale, and a house behind it, which all seems suspect as not much else for sale in the area. Problem neighbours? This one has been sat on the market for so long a cheeky offer probably wouldn't go unnoticed. Finally, the EPC for it is the worst I've seen, seems it's cavity wall but pre-insulation, so that'd be something I'd have to get done, which in itself can present issues down the line. Other houses around it seem to have the insulation from new. I'm only a couple months into the 6 month rental contract, but the house buying process can take many months right? Might start low balling offers out there just to gauge the market, but my instinct is still telling me it's too early. Prices aren't bonkers here, I reckon about 15% above inflation since the post crash bottom, so i'm looking for the same off really before jumping in. My worst case fear is that prices just stagnate until the powers that be juice things up again.