reformed nice guy

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  1. reformed nice guy

    Is this the Beginning of a Globalized Housing Downturn?

    Good video. One thing that isn't mentioned is the demographic change. In developed countries, and China too, the number of people aged 16-35 has decreased in aggregate. These would be your prime house buying segment. What a coincidence that TPTB are wanting to import large amounts of men of that age range....
  2. reformed nice guy

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Clever! I like your thinking
  3. reformed nice guy

    Log Stoves

    To add to this, inflation from 2008 to 2018 was (officially....) 2.7% per year. Average price per litre for kerosene was around 45p in 2008 (35-55 range). Lowest since then was 25p in 2016. To match inflation it should have been about 55p. Highest was 63p in 2013. Price over the last month has averaged 45p. Inflation says it should be around 60p. Does this technically means there is deflationary pressure on kerosene? Hope no one from the treasury reads this or they will just up the tax!
  4. reformed nice guy

    Log Stoves

    Inspired by this thread and the cold weather, iv had a look at the energy costs. My (rural) house has a kerosene burner, multifuel stoves and an electric immersion heater. I tried to get an idea about the efficiency of each, transmission loss etc and always erred on the side of inefficiency for the calculations. Excluding wood, which I have free access to excluding the cost of time, I calculated that the cost of kerosene is about 40% more expensive than coal or smokeless to heat the house. Going forward I will use kerosene less and I plan to get an extra coal bunker!
  5. reformed nice guy

    Lobo loans

    Hold on to your horses..... you might be on to something. From another life I know a thing or two around this. There is the "Wednesbury Principle" which means that if a decision is made that would not be considered reasonable, or within the competency of those making the decision, then the councillors making it can be held liable by court for acting beyond their remit. If they were given advice by incompetent advisors within the council then they would have to prove that within court. Dont know what would happen to the people giving advice though. I suppose it will come down to interpretations of "acting within their competency" and/or "bad faith". Perhaps this is why they are going after the banks? Passing the buck?
  6. reformed nice guy

    Log Stoves

    Same here. Your own wood heats you many times over - when you collect it, chop it, stack it and finally burn it! Much better exercise than a gym too.
  7. reformed nice guy

    Log Stoves

    Love my stoves. I have it hooked up to the radiators too. Use a combo of coal and wood
  8. Lots of money to be made providing "temporary accommodation" to illegal immigrants
  9. I suppose it depends on how many cars they are producing - is the number of cars made per worker going up?
  10. reformed nice guy

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come. An article in the Newstatesman blames consumer debt for todays drop in consumer spending
  11. reformed nice guy


    Best thing to do is to join a shooting club. You normally need to be a member of one for 6 months + before you can get a FAC. For a shotgun certificate you just need to have a cabinet and know where you can shoot ie a place locally that does clays. Best bet is to join a club. You will probably like it and you will learn a lot. Try lots of different types of rifles, long barrelled pistols etc and see what you like.
  12. reformed nice guy

    New Car Registrations

    Historical Polo price (7725) in gold: just under 12oz (11.9832..) Polo price (14330) today in gold: 14.25 oz (14.2367....) So a polo is 2.25oz more expensive today than 2009.
  13. reformed nice guy

    Man stabbed on train

  14. reformed nice guy

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

    Your last few posts have been very interesting DB. Do you have any thoughts about the likelihood of wealth confiscations? Like the American gold one at the start of the 20th century. Would it be prudent to hold some physical gold in case they confiscate swap your gold for fiat currency? Another question if you dont mind - if wealth (broadly defined) is eroded and middle class pensions are ruined, then what would these people do for income? My guy tells me that families will have to look after them and charity for those without. It reminds me of Pikettys book "Capital in the 21st century" when fortunes were destroyed by WW1, although that was mostly confided to the 'nobles'. If central banks fail and people lose confidence in them, do you think we could return to a stage in the distant future where inflation is closer to zero?
  15. reformed nice guy

    Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come. Apple are having a wobble, down about 7% after hours and hitting lows not seen for a few years. Interestingly, they blame Chinese consumer slow down...