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  1. Interesting post VMR I will make a few comments as to how your approach differs to mine. First I like this thread I admire the way the conversation is handled with respect and openness and I admire (but am unable to replicate) the frugality of many on here and think this will be an increasing theme of society going forward. I am mainly interested what comes in what order out of inflation/deflation as the sequence of them will determine investment returns. I don't have a strong view on this but mildly favour a deflationary move next over an inflationary one next which seems to show up in asset holding differences between us. However of the two I fear inflation more longer term as I think it will have a bigger effect on quality of life over say a thirty year period than a shorter term deflationary bust. I FIRED last summer at 52 live in the EU and have spent 9 months or so adjusting to life with about 60% of former income having run a small business for over a decade. I went then because i found working part time meant a lot less income but for comparatively more effort and stress if you like so i wanted the time not the money. Its been a simple decision, I don't miss the money and apart from a short period of what next its been a relatively simple transition. My wife works part time and intends to continue for the foreseeable which simplifies the equation further. My numbers are a bit different to yours as follows. - House x5 of income. We intend to downsize in 10 years to circa 3x income - Pension x9 mix of SIPP, company pension and final salary pension invested in shares and funds. - Shares x 15. mainly UK shares 20 or so - looking to expand to c 30 and add more overseas funds when good value - Bonds and cash equivalents x5 Mix of UST and £ - Gold, silver and commodities x1. Looking to expand here given the relative long term value i perceive - Together the above minus the SIPP generates 90% of annual spending needs with wife's income the rest. I am cautious on returns - I'm looking for a 3-4% return across the portfolio over the very long term. I feel my cash portion particularly the sterling portion is too high given sterling's terrible track record so continue to look for UK based shares at good value which derive majority income from overseas. They are quite hard to find ATM. I don't intend to take the pensions until age 60 at which point I think I will use similar numbers to yours for withdrawal until and after state pension kicks in although if find it difficult to think that far ahead. I have also found when you retire good health not wealth becomes the main focus and the wealth part is more for people in the 10 or so years before they retire as they stack for an unknown longevity.
  2. Apologies I've not been very active here for a while but very much appreciate the blog, how its run and the quality of opinions and insight here. A quick question for those who understand markets better than me. I've noticed recently with a number of shares i own a trend where the price appreciates over a month or so prior to results then falls significantly on the day of results having fallen a little the day before results. I've noted this recently for example for CNA, FRES and IGG. I am holding LGEN which announces on Wednesday and am considering selling today/tomorrow and then buying back after results have been announced when the share hits technical support. I appreciate this may be the market we are in with profits falling short of expectations or is it an acknowledged trend of capital riding the share price in the build up to results and then selling/shorting around results day? Appreciate any insight anyone can offer.
  3. Have put in orders for CNA at 125 and FRES at 772 where I believe there is support. Long term purchases both if they come to pass.
  4. Interesting Barnsey i follow Tony Caldaro one of the Elliott Wavers he thinks the top is in on the US indices and is calling a relatively shallow correction down to about 2100 in the S&P. I think it will be deflationary rather than stagflation too much debt in the system but the trigger could still be a run up in oil prices. Either way it difficult to see how asset prices can keep going much further with the amount of leverage about.
  5. Anyone think the selling is over for this wave at least? Been a sizeable correction so far globally but most of the uncertainty and noise around US mid-terms is probably behind us now and November to March is traditionally a strong seasonal period for the market. I expect gold and silver to pull back as the market goes risk on again to first quarter next year. Notwithstanding that I think we have seen the top for this 8-9 year cycle in US U.K. and EU stocks and rallies will be sold as liquidity dries up and lower highs become the norm. Housing wherever you look US HK Oz UK seems to have topped out with the builder shares leading the respective housing markets down. £:$ back for another test of the 1.27 area think it will hold this year but break it for good next year when I expect that support to become long term resistance. interesting times for sure - I wonder what sectors in the FTSE will break down when the bear gets going again? Banks, insurance and energy would be high on my list.
  6. Some interesting trends in markets this week - possibly a bottom in silver and gold, maybe a higher low in in TLT and perhaps some relief for EM currencies and stock markets coming from a weaker dollar as predicted by DB? Think we should know within a week or so but my feel is that US ten year won’t break 3% which I think is the key to the near term for gold and DXY. Chance for sterling to run up now this autumn which might be the last chance to get out at around 1.40 to the USD there’s certainly some shorts to be squeezed there to generate that kind of move.
  7. "As for the dollar my target was 96.5 and we are there now and i think the follow through might see it hit 97.6.We have a 36 month bullish extreme on the dollar.The 9 day sentiment reading is at 91% bullish,and the numbers i run are exactly where they were when the dollar topped at 103.That is the kind of sentiment you see in a cycle rebound,thats all this is.Everyone wants to be bullish on the dollar,but that will prove very un-profitable from here i think.I expect the dollar to turn lower,a lot lower." Looking like another great call on the dollar DB of a turn around 96/97. Do you have a target in mind for where DXY might fall back to now and are you still bullish about an ultimate rise for DXY to 120 or thereabouts?
  8. The average delay between a yield curve inversion in the US and a stock market downturn is 8 months I believe but it has been longer and was nearly 18 months last time I think Feb 2006 to October 2007. We should reach inversion with a 25 bps rate rise in the US this September? Does that mean we are circa a year away from the downturn and why DB thinks there is still room for gold to run and the dollar to fall between now and then?
  9. The market always wins out in the end SP we just haven’t got there yet - the foreigners do hold uk assets and investments in businesses but I wonder with recent announcements on reviews of foreign stakes in businesses whether that will gradually roll back. Will look at stocks in those sectors plenty of value there to be going at i think
  10. Interesting article I think Brexit is impossible to call too many options still in play and too much political risk to have an investment strategy specifically for. I hedge persistent GBP weakness through overseas property, foreign currency, some us govt bonds and some gold but my circumstances are different to many in that 80 percent of my costs are in EU but 50 percent plus of income is in GBP. The gap between the two gives me the cause for concern. Others will have more of a GBP cost base and so their risks and opportunities will be different I expect.
  11. Big push on offshore wind in the FT today - do you think it’s enough though to meet our own energy needs DB? - the article was talking about the capacity being here by 2030 - we don’t want any more Hinkley Point deals IMO
  12. Agree it’s been spent on benefits and on consumption and not on investment - let’s hope this changes this is the hope of the thread
  13. Yep it’s uneconomical with oil at 50$ a barrel and a bit more attractive at current oil prices but given this we won’t pump anywhere near the volume we did between 1980 and 2010
  14. Don’t disagree Banned think the Uk’s problems go way back to the empire decline and the failure to compete on a national level with Germany in high tech manufacturing and engineering which has led us to financialise more and more of the economy and invite capital (and labour) in whilst running a serious balance of payments deficit. My belief is that North Sea oil has prevented a more drastic currency decline in the past three decades but that is nearly done now and we need something to replace it. If capital takes flight for whatever reason it’s game over for sterling. However because the Brexit outcome is so uncertain short term markets are not pricing sterling for what’s coming in the medium and longer term. Sooner or later the currency market will look beyond Brexit and the economic fundamentals will be the focus