Cattle Prod

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About Cattle Prod

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  1. It just occured to me that with everything overwhelming instant communication now, we need a shorshine boy scale. In 1929, such a tip would have been unusual and jarring, and a very clear contrarian signal. I'm waiting for Mrs to shout at me for selling her stocks (she wanted to sell them in March "in case they lost any more"). I want to see tinkers nicking lead off my roof, grannies melting down their rings, my ten year old asking me about aapl stock, and my dog getting barking when he sees a parabolic chart on my screen. Then the top is in.
  2. This is where a massive thank you to @MvR is due from me. I bought deep otm SIL calls for this very reason. I was (still am) willing to lose the money I put in (c. 4k) because it would prevent me doing stupid things with my cold hard ISA and SIPP investments, and reasoned would end up be net-net or better. I've now trimmed right down my miners exposure in SIPP and ISA, and have no FOMO, as my options run to early next year. I even closed some October options as I have plenty of January etc. They were up 10x, the best return I've ever had on an investment (though I treat it as insurance). So thanks, MvR, DB SP and all you lot, I've learned a hell of a lot here. I feel much better equipped to navigate the next 8 years now. I'm a huge PM bull over that period, but I think I'm getting better at this risk management malarkey. Nothing goes up in a straight line, and there will be severe pull backs along the way.
  3. Finally. It's been a long wait for me, I went in when I noticed Ngas went up when oil crashed in March, as alot of gas comes from oil so the supply is inelastic. It looks like it's been basing since then, maybe the market is finally waking up to the coming supply problems in the US. If this is the case, Ngas may be leading oil (with a lag, oil still has a supply overhang).
  4. My skills are mining 😎 Also to seismic hazard research which I might do if I have enough moolah by then.
  5. You can read that Opex point across to the oil industry, its the key metric keeping things going currently. I've spoken here before about Johan Sverdrup field. A dream field. Its up and running now, most capex spent at historically low rates of interest. This is the hard bit for oil companies. Sinking capital and not seeing a return for 3, 4, 5 years. In the meantime prices cycle. Ideal is to invest capital during low price environment, at low bond coupons. Reap the rewards. Exxon is also notably doing this in Guyana. Opex on JS is now 3 or 4 dollars a barrel. Thats it. Its already producing a river of cash. When prices rise and the bond coupon remains the same, they wont know what to do with the cash. I recently saw a bond maturity profile on a competitors investor presentation (Apache) They are starting to pitch this as a sellling point. On the face of it their balance sheet is in rag order, sky high debt. But they had most bond maturing 2035-2044 at an average coupon of 4.5%! That might sound high but I assure you it's not for the oil indudtry. And theyve just discovered a ton of oil in Surinane. I'm not an investor (balance sheet too shake, too much shale) but I'll be watching closely. Many oil companies would kill for a debt profile like that.
  6. Fwiw it's not my favourite sector either 😁 A sector on decline can never be my favourite, but its the one I understand best so own the most. I think it's going to go out with a bang, hopefully stimulating the transition to better energy sources. I fully expect to be out of a job in 8 years time. My favourite is precious metals. I think its going to go from being a laughing stock to one of the most important sectors in the world, like it always has been. I think this 100% fiat era since 1971 will be seen as an abberation.
  7. Last week Repsol bought into wind and solar in Chile, cultural connections matter. They would know all the politicians, local CEOs, what to say, how to do it, sit down for a pisco and do a deal. And they have the cash.
  8. Very good to check bias like this. I try to do it regulary, but it always comes back to "Anything to compete with the energy density of petroleum yet? No, ok."
  9. Wasn't it the same for silver 2 summers ago?! A great contrarian indicator imo.
  10. What version of the platform do you use? Ive tried mobile, web based or downloaded the workstation. All have been unsuable (for options) to me one way or another and Ive found myself going back to Saxo and their crap prices. Disclaimer - I didnt follow any tutorial 😁