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Cattle Prod

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  1. Beginning to think you're trolling...15k on a no name AIM oil stock? Nuts, being polite. And this is not a stock ramp type thread, I could have done that 50 times, LSE is the place for that. For me, this place is about the way, the philosophy, not the quick buck. Thats why I started contributing. Suggest you read from page 1 if you're serious.
  2. Yes. Even with another downdraft, or even BK, the market has just signalled what it wants to do given a hint of all clear. Direction of travel is obvious.
  3. He's making an error there - the BP Alaska deal was agreed before the price drop, it was not a fire sale. I know anecdotally that the buyer is crying into their beer over it! Univestible is a bit strong I think, there is a case here that BP is making a market for its own products. Time will tell. I wouldn't worry about BP lagging Shell by a relative 10%, XOM is lagging further. It's just noise. Thats why you buy a few of them IMO. Decl I own BP and Gazprom. No dilemna for me.
  4. Personally, that would make me liquidate everything as I'm on the way out and leave it to him in cash. IHT and then backdated CGT? Good luck with that, HM Treasury.
  5. And here is the breakdown of CPI to October in the US from the Bureau of labour statistics: Energy, oil and gas in particular have been a major deflator on the CPI index this year so far, to the surprise of no one. What happens to CPI when energy goes up?
  6. Backwardation sooner than I thought. This reflects tightness in the physical market, I wonder will this make OPEC continue as planned without further cuts? Either way, this is a real time indicator - it's the sum of the current views of the physical market. Inventory measurements are lagging, but I suspect they will be shown to have continued drawing down out of season. So during a time of unprecedented 'permanent' demand destruction, there are clear signs that oil is in short supply. Reason is just that: supply. And short supply is much, much harder to respond to than excess supply.
  7. XLE is the largest, large cap oil and gas ETF, $11bn worth of our favourite stocks, so one to watch for trends I think. It's looking like it wants to claim its 200 DMA, which it really hasn't done since October 18, or the end of the last bull run. I don't pay too much attention to moving averages especially as algos are trained to whipsaw around them, but institutional money likes the 200 MA especially, or so I read, which I want to see coming into XLE (watch what they do etc..). I think if it closes it above it this week, the current rally is more likely to be a real change in trend, and I'd
  8. @Panda Here's a good chart that shows the current inventory situation in the US. As I said, inventory is drawing down overall (PADD 3 is the Gulf Coast region where most of it is stored), and though Cushing is rising, its not at unusual levels. And Cushing starts to draw down after PADD 3 does, which makes sense. So in other words, the oilprice.com article, like most of theirs, is crap. They tend to regurgitate stuff already circulating, very little is original. Everything I post here is in the public domain and accessible to any investor, and this chart is a good demonstrati
  9. Canda has huge growth potential still, and will be an ever more important country geopolitically. They need to sort out their PM though, another tool in the Johnston mould.
  10. In oil, gas, not a hope. See the graphs I put up before, its a chasm between supply and demand. Coal - though they burn most of the worlds stuff and have a fair bit they still need to import Aussie coal as it is. Nuclear- mines are in Kazakhstan and Canada. Wind on its own - good luck. Need something new like molten salt reactors. Asian energy needs are going to be the story of the 2020s I think. Here's a little thought exercise the G20: From that lot, only Russia, Saudi, Mexico, Canada and Brazil are energy (oil and gas) independent. Mexico and Brazil are soon to cross ov
  11. Cushing is a distribution hub more than storage, overall US inventories are going down. WTI is priced off Cushing and stocks are high there atm, my guess is hurricane bottlenecks. There will be more dips, maybe a big one, maybe a visit to $22 again like DB says, but dipping in and is not my strategy, I'm not that clever. And you will be getting conflicting news like this on a weekly basis, so good luck. This is why I prefer medium to long term, it cuts out the noise. I don't really care what happens this month or next year even, I know whats coming, and whenever the market is ready,
  12. He's been doing that for a few years now, was right for a while in March, and will be right again for a while at some point. At all other times he has been completely wrong. I've read that, and I don't disagree with a lot of it. A good example of poor timing, especially if you want to go short, I'm amazed he's not broke yet. You can get away with poor timing on the long side as long as you're not leveraged.
  13. It's the way it's done. Just google any big field in the world and you'll see a bunch of JV partners listed. NOCs often have 100% of their own country projects, but you wouldn't be able to access them for investment anyway. Quite often the NOCs have invited the IOCs in at home too. One of XOMs biggest assets is in Qatar. Chevron had big investments in Venezuela. BP has a large slice of Russia. Shell dominant in Brunei and Nigeria, ENI in North Africa. Total was invited in by the Iranians till sanction, now the Chinese have it unfortunately.
  14. A very good question. In the o&g business, you rarely do projects on your own. Risk is shared out, and your competitors are also your partners. Its weird, but fun too, we all get to know each other. The latest development in this respect has been the national oil companies "coming out". Notable in the last couple of years are Mubadala and Qatar Petroleum - they have been buying into top drawer projects around the world, generally with a major (QP seems to like BP). But Petronas has been doing it a while too. They are building up good technical expertise. Most, however, are still sitti
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