Cattle Prod

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  1. I came onto the thread today to post about Venezuela. Interesting how it cropped up a page back. I've recently read that food is trading at a higher price there at the moment than drugs. And that's what it comes down to in the end, when all else is failing: life. I'm fully on board with you guys for the coming inflationary cycle. There is mot a doubt in my mind that it'll be the investment opportunity of my lifetime. Therefore, if I don't get greedy and f*ck it up, I'll be retiring at the end of it (in my 40s). I recall DB saying he has no view on what comes after that, and that there are some potentially scary outcomes. I don't know either, but there will almost certainly be some degree of society fracturing. Maybe not Venezuela. Mut maybe. I'm from a farming background, so I know what I'm doing. I'm with Jim Rogers: agriculture all the way. I will pivot out of most PMs and oil, particulary if they go bubbly, and invest in forestry (directly) and low maintenance/low impact agricultural land (beef) in the UK/Ireland/Canada. Nothing massive, just enough for me and my kin. I already have a "practice" patch, and am currently learning chainsaw skills, amongst others. Lits of fun. The no. 1 asset of course is my health and strength. Who knows the future. But thats where I hope to be in 6-8 years time.
  2. @sancho panza ENI have just made a strategic move into the Middle East, taking licences in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Sharjah, and Oman. I screened some of these for my company, and there is juicy stuff in one of them in particular. We couldn't move fast enough, and I am going to console myself with some ENI shares. May not move their needle much, but they are making all the right moves and I want skin in their game.
  3. I picked up some more silver coins on a trip to Germany recently, very good prices, very smooth process. 16.70 euro for Aus kangaroos. I went to Degussa in Berlin. Cursory look at airport security, nobody in customs at T5. The only catch was I got pinged on the currency, so I'm going to set up a euro account. I'm think I'll drive over when this thing bottoms, and literally back up a truck (well, car :-)) Oil is still moving with the S&P, so I shorted the S&P a while back to hedge, and it's working well. Seems the Chinese were naughty and are responsible for some of the overshoot to the downside. I watch inventories and flows, which are a bit muddy at the moment, but the 'Saudi cutting exports to the USA' point I mentioned (they did it the day after Trump issued Iran waivers) is hitting the mainstream. Oil is currently about $15 undervalued, and I may substantially reduce then for a while. The S&P is following a 2008 pattern which I didn't expect this soon. If it breaks 2600 up I'll stay in fully oil, if it doesn't, I'll ride a smaller position down and ladder in for a 5 year hold. Anyone else notice the shift to utilities and defensives in recent S&P rallies?
  4. ENI are the best explorers out there, the ones we all try and copy. They are setting themselves up very well for the supply crunch coming in a few years. But big oil companies are not valued on their exploration, but their production. I don't know much about their production to be honest, though they have alot in Africa which is low costs. I hadn't noticed they were that beat up to be honest, I need to take a good look under the bonnet
  5. Nail on the head, Sancho, it's about being psychologically prepared. Hussman recently published the stages of a bear market turn, so people can get their heads right. I look at the panic in recent weeks with amazement, these people simply cannot suffer even a small loss, they have been conditioned to always believe in the win. It doesn't bother me in the slightest, because I have 100% conviction in where things will be in 5-7 years from now. Therefore, what happens now is just bookkeeping. I have to remind myself of this sometimes, because I'm human too. Every time I take a hit on my oil positions for example, I say "but you know, with absolute certainty, that this will hit $200 a barrel within 5 years", and then I get excited that we are moving closer to the bottom. For example, WTI got to within $8 of it's inflation adjusted 2009 bottom this week. I'm astonished, and delighted. For me, the fear is not that it's dropping, its that I won't get the opportunity to buy more. Because it is the opportunity of a lifetime, possibly my last one. Same for PMs. I'm not sure GDX will halve like 2008, I think it already has. It cane close to its 2008/9 bottom in August, and costs have gone up since 2009. But can I safely buy more? Yes, if it goes down! Stocks? I'm down about 3.5% in recent weeks, happy enough with that. Especically with an average 7.1% dividend. Fear attacks when you're not mentally prepared. And that is what this thread is all about for me.
  6. The one with the fear index at 5? Yeah I saw that. Its fascinating how the herd turns, and can go to extreme emotions very quickly. Panic is the right word, and people are stupid and irrational in a panic. I think its overdone, I think there are uncanny parallels to December 2015 and there is potential for a huge PM run for the next 6 months...but they all need to calm down! It's happening too quickly and its risking pulling everything down together. Gartman it a tool, and a herd follower. He needs a cattle prod ;-)
  7. Bought 6 months ago, 10 year fix, 2.53%. As the guys have said its 4 walls and a roof, and when I tried to remember what I paid for it the other day it took me a minute to remember. I just don't care. The only number that matters to me is my monthly, which will be the same for the next 9.5 years, and what % of that is covered by my dividends. My 2c is we get a bounce. Stocks, oil, PMs. Recessions haven't historically kicked n that quickly from first signals. This all feels like a taper tantrum to me. I still think Q3 next year for major pain. The top may be in and we may just get a bear market rally between now and then, which will hurt a lot of people. Either way I'll be cashing out next summer and waiting for the big drop to ladder into physical silver, oil, and blue chip stocks. The one thing thats bothering me is that in algo world, things just may not have the same lags, and the past is no longer a guide to the future. This month's S&P candle looks rather rapid...
  8. I started into them 2 weeks ago. The notional divi was 10% yesterday! Interesting angle on the infrastructure funds DB, thanks
  9. Like DBs commemt on gold, oil at $20 will only last a few months, if at all. Supply is simply too tight, unless demand falls off a cliff. Which it won't, unless they opt for Great Depression 2 rather than reflation. In the last week Ive added to BP and Shell in my income portfolio, some OIH, 2 juniors at all time lows I like and a small punt on WTI for the OPEC meeting (most of my position was stopped out, thanks Trump you almighty prick). One thing I got from the "Saudi Inc" book I'm reading is thst the wider Saudi family have repeatedly thrown each other under the bus over the years if the money flow was threatened. MBS is not bulletproof, internally, even if Trump thinls he cornered him. They will cut, significantly, no matter how soft the announcement is. Not least because they are currently damaging their reservoirs and can only sustain this rate for months! I still can't believe smart traders or bots haven't acted on Saudi and Opec admitting they are pumping at full capacity. First time ever. Must be because they believe in spare capacity in the US, which isn't true either. Ah well.
  10. Vodafone closed above its 100 DMA today, and crossed on the weekly MACD. Looks like it's bottoming, glad I held and added, locking in that juicy dividend!
  11. Amazes me how people constantly look for fundamental reasons for what is clearly a paper event. Saudi did pump close to that, but with no spare capacity left. US figure is wrong by about 5m barrels. That said, paper oil has pushed price around by more tgan this before, so I'm keeping my stops tight till I see they've had enough. Net longs are now lower than when oil was $30 To add: I'll believe the shale flood when I see it, signs of rate of permian production increase are flattening snd mone of the others have even reached theor 2015 high.
  12. Thats exactly where I got to: weighed up the 10 year fix against the coming haircut. Throw a 9 year old into the mix, and the 10 year fix won the day. No one or nothing can touch me till he's grown up. I sleep well on that score.
  13. Yeah, I've said it twice now, including in the post you quoted. Its very useful, especially the US data as they have to report accurate data or get sued. The middle east is murky, but nature is nature. Fields decline, in a fairly predictable way. Time will tell, and as always, dyodd
  14. Very true. As someone upthread mentioned, commodities are finite, and the biggest forces of all at play are natural power laws. The rest is noise. Shame it gets so bloody noisy sometimes, weren't the algos supposed to smooth out human emotions?!
  15. Precisely. We have lots of Freds, who really dont care very much. They are loaded, and doing it for fun. And not really listening...