Cattle Prod

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About Cattle Prod

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  1. I started into them 2 weeks ago. The notional divi was 10% yesterday! Interesting angle on the infrastructure funds DB, thanks
  2. Like DBs commemt on gold, oil at $20 will only last a few months, if at all. Supply is simply too tight, unless demand falls off a cliff. Which it won't, unless they opt for Great Depression 2 rather than reflation. In the last week Ive added to BP and Shell in my income portfolio, some OIH, 2 juniors at all time lows I like and a small punt on WTI for the OPEC meeting (most of my position was stopped out, thanks Trump you almighty prick). One thing I got from the "Saudi Inc" book I'm reading is thst the wider Saudi family have repeatedly thrown each other under the bus over the years if the money flow was threatened. MBS is not bulletproof, internally, even if Trump thinls he cornered him. They will cut, significantly, no matter how soft the announcement is. Not least because they are currently damaging their reservoirs and can only sustain this rate for months! I still can't believe smart traders or bots haven't acted on Saudi and Opec admitting they are pumping at full capacity. First time ever. Must be because they believe in spare capacity in the US, which isn't true either. Ah well.
  3. Vodafone closed above its 100 DMA today, and crossed on the weekly MACD. Looks like it's bottoming, glad I held and added, locking in that juicy dividend!
  4. Amazes me how people constantly look for fundamental reasons for what is clearly a paper event. Saudi did pump close to that, but with no spare capacity left. US figure is wrong by about 5m barrels. That said, paper oil has pushed price around by more tgan this before, so I'm keeping my stops tight till I see they've had enough. Net longs are now lower than when oil was $30 To add: I'll believe the shale flood when I see it, signs of rate of permian production increase are flattening snd mone of the others have even reached theor 2015 high.
  5. Thats exactly where I got to: weighed up the 10 year fix against the coming haircut. Throw a 9 year old into the mix, and the 10 year fix won the day. No one or nothing can touch me till he's grown up. I sleep well on that score.
  6. Yeah, I've said it twice now, including in the post you quoted. Its very useful, especially the US data as they have to report accurate data or get sued. The middle east is murky, but nature is nature. Fields decline, in a fairly predictable way. Time will tell, and as always, dyodd
  7. Very true. As someone upthread mentioned, commodities are finite, and the biggest forces of all at play are natural power laws. The rest is noise. Shame it gets so bloody noisy sometimes, weren't the algos supposed to smooth out human emotions?!
  8. Precisely. We have lots of Freds, who really dont care very much. They are loaded, and doing it for fun. And not really listening...
  9. I'm afraid that's not true, even in the supermajors. I hear Bob Dudley for example spouting second hand shite all the time. Most people running oil companies are from a financial background, and don't really understand how reserves work, or decline. Which is why you see stoiip numbers being misquoted for recoverable resources etc., inadequate hedging, and reactionary strategy (buy shale!!). I could go on, but ask a good reservoir engineer or geologist if you want to know whats going on. And very few of those take a global view.
  10. My information doesn't come from my company folks, and the HBOS analogy is apt. My company is totally stupid with their hedges, and is as liable to go bankrupt as prosper. As I said at the outset, don't invest in oil unless its a divi supermajor. I do my own analysis on global supplies, as I've been trained in how oil fields behave. All the data is public. I don't discuss this in work, everyone is too well paid, fat and happy to be interested. I'm still content in my analysis. I dont know exactly when, but oil will run high, stay high, and probably destroy the remaining asset bubbles. Possibly by early next year.
  11. I am 100% certain that world supply is tighter today than it has ever been. But the price is driven by paper, and there are funny things going on with that, like the Shanghai futures market which I dont fully understand. We'll see, I won't be trying to catch a falling knife beyond my range if they want to overreact. And by definition, a tight market will produce volatility.
  12. It is a bit rapid for my liking. WTI has hit the bottom of my range in a matter of 2 days, Brent not quite there but close. Lets see if it holds. Technically its tagged the base of a 3 year channel as well as the 61.8 fibb retrace of the whole move I traded last year. Fundamentally, the latest capitulation seems to be a reaction to Saudi production numbers being above quota in October...but as I ssid this is because they pumped for Trump! Why is this not obvious to traders? There are already signs of reversal (they increased the price of exports to the USA the day after the election, oil on water is dropping etc etc). Daily RSI is very low now, and net spec longs have finally reduced to a sensible level, but it'll have to weigh my position size against the madness of crowds.
  13. For me, I cannot see a reason to not hold this stock for 5 years or more. Todays gain + divi breaks me even, despite averaging down for quite a while. I'm content for the long term.
  14. Averaging down, thanks Trump!!
  15. @sancho panza I don't read too much on energy SP, and I'm no expert on tge trading side. But I respect Art Berman. He has a bunch of freely available slide decks on his website, should be good for a layman. He has a solid track record of price directions by tracking the comparative inventory of oil stocks. i.e. how the paper market shoves the price up and down by tens of dollars based on relatively tiny stock fluctuations (10s of m barrels in a 100mbbl a day spot market. ie a 10mbbl stock increase can knock $5 off the price in a 10 day period when 1 billion barrels are burned!!). Hes also a working geologist, and scientific in his approach. Just googke him, I have no idea why his stuff is free. Probably because he enjoys it. I do my own analysis on supply, as its part of my job anyway. I use the EIA data for the shale stuff, its very comprehensive. Just google "eia shale production data" and download the latest spreadsheet. Plot up the 'legacy production rate' column, and have a think about what's underpinning the 'shale oil 4 eva' narrative! Oh, and for a general read, the pulitzer prize winning "the prize" is a superb history. I'm also reading the recent "Saudi Inc" atm, nothing revelatory so far.