Cattle Prod

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  1. 2 pieces of investmemt advice have always stuck with me: 1. "You don't need to sell at or close tp the top of the market, by definition, very few do. Just make sure you're not stuck on the other side going down" - Dermot Desmond, Irish billionaire, early backer of Baltimore Technologies in the tech boom. Remember them?! IIRC he got out with a 200m profit, and got slated as the share price continued to rise. And then crashed spectacularly- not slated then! 2. "Never re visit decisions, as you will always have more information afterwards. Just make the best decision you can with the information you have" - board member of 50bn company So I never worry about potential lost gains, I just try to make sure I gain something, and move on to the next one. I got kicked out of a FTSE 100 short last year, which continued on down and 'lost' me 45k. Ah well, I made a bit. And I avoid hindsight. I'm not criticising at all, @DurhamBorn, just empathising that I too know the feeling and those two quotes helped me.
  2. I like uranium, but the only way I found to access URA is an IG spreadbet. Done fuckall for months, but I don't mind. Price is low. Went well today top
  3. I bought SPLT and a little LPLA in my HL ISA, fwiw F*uck, when did I stop speaking English?!
  4. Gosh, why do you think they'd do that?! I'd have thought they'd want people spending their money sooner if anything. This restriction really pisses me off, as I want to retire before 50. I'd put much more into my SIPP if I could access it sooner. As it is I'm favouring my ISA over it for access reasons.
  5. @DurhamBorn The biggest compliment I can give you is that I'm not surprised. I've seen you do this on the dollar before, when no one else was calling it. Whatever you're doing, its working! And thanks again for sharing your knowledge. Your roadmap is indicating c. 25% gain in GDX, and c. 20% in gold itself. I'm interested in why you think the miners won't leverage the price as much this time? General equity negativity? Edit: that's timely, GDXJ just opened 6.3% up on the LSE, even though sterling bounced! US open is going to be bonkers, if they don't smash it down first
  6. Barnsey mentioned 40 years, and that speaks to long term debt cycles. Passive investing and all the actuarial work that goes into it is too zoomed in, and tends not to look back far enough. As this disinflationary cycle ends, and a new cycle begins, all stocks are not going to broadly go up together. Disinflation loving stocks are going to cancel out the inflation loving ones in a big basket of thousands of stocks so youll get stagnstion and poor returns (negative real returns probably). If someone sorts out a decent index of inflation loving stocks only, I'd happily passive invest in that. I recommended Ray Dalios videos on debt cycles. They zoom out far enough to help you see the next 40 years wont be like the last 40, if you believe we are now at a major inflection point. Which I do. Very hard to notice it while its happening, and most wont notice things have structurally shifted.
  7. Problem with the FIRE sites, (and Mr Money Moustache is excellent) is that they invariably base the investment strategy and drawdowns from on a Vanguard/Boglehead/passive point of view. And that's not going to work gpimg forward. My strategy is to buy large cash rich dividend paying compaines cheaply instead, and I expect to do better than 4%. The "lifetime" opportunity for that strategy (as in the 'cheaply' bit is in the early innngs already, per this thread.
  8. I bought platinum this week. Risk reward looks very good from here, as long as this bottom holds. Todays actiom so far is pointing that way
  9. They need to offload the nuclear stake first i think.Its a tricky sale but if they could get £1.5 billion for it they could cut debt in half,and then be able to grow all the future facing sides they have. I'm a big fan of Shell, I really like the way they're taking the lead on shifting their business toward a broader energy company, and toward natural gas on the fossil fuel space. (Disc.I am a shareholder, but don't work for them). What they're doing is shaking things up down the food chain. We now have institutional investors asking us mid cap folks what the hell we are doing about carbon. It's quite funny watching old oilmen running around saying "does anyone know anything about carbon scrubbers?" :-) It's changing. Suits me fine, I'm a scientist first and foremost. Shells purchases so far have been very green, to fit the PR element of what theyre doing (I believe theyre serious, but they are managing optics too). So maybe Centrica doesn't fit those optics right now. And maybe offloading nuclear as DB points out will help with that. But at some point they're going to declare themselves 'an electricity company' (Electrons: Beyond Molecules, anyone?), and even if they don't get Centrica this cheap, it'll still be just a few months free cash for them. My 2c
  10. Jesus. This is why I stopped listening tp the mainstream media. Next up: 'sky sports poverty'
  11. Unhappy investors suits me fine as a contrarian, and you can see it in the price. It's oversold on daily, weekly and monthly timescales (that said, I don't see signs of it bottoming yet). Thanks for the discount guys, I topped up my holding this week. Divi is over 12% now, but I've become less interested in that now, than the growth potential. It looks ridiculously cheap to me. I can only think of a bottom of cycle driving it down, along with the spectre of Corbyn. Once thats removed, it'll rally hard. I look at Mexico, where a Corbyn is in power (AMLO). He's learning quickly about the power of the bond markets. After the Pemex downgrade, things are about to get very tough for him, and his free hand has been severely curtailed. There will be no 8bn refinery in his home town for starters. I don't think Corbyn will be allowed nationalise anything, even if he gets in. He'll have to sell gilts to do so, and he might get a nasty surprise about what Mr. Bond Market thinks about expropriation and a cavalier attitude to property rights. Lastly, I got a smart meter in. Turns out its costing me about £20 a week for elec and gas, I had no idea it was that low. It's a ridiculously small portion of my take home pay. I appreciate it's alot more for a pensioner, and I have no issue with helping them out. But for the vast majority of people, it's less than cigarettes/booze/sweets/car payment blah blah blah ...for heating and power??? I can't be the only one who grew up in a cold house, do people forget this? Bottom line - we're going to have to pay more, and CNA will be priced like a normal company again. This "big 6 profiteering" theme is nonsense and needs to be knocked on the head before they're out of business. So what if they made 180m profit - what % of revenue was that? Revenue was 30bn!! Less than 1%. And people rage into their massively marked up Apple products about the Big 6. People need to, and will, wake the f**k up about whats really important to spend money on. If I had to pay 10% more for my energy I wouldn't miss it, and it'll go straight onto Centricas bottom line. And then maybe they can invest and get on with their business.
  12. Thanks DB, I get that, as insane as it is! Oz in the ground are still worthless until they are out and smelted. But if someone is confident enough to bet price will hold up long enough to cover the production lag, more power to them. And maybe thats how PM bulls go. But if I was a big producer with high quality ore, making cash at 1500, 1600, 1700, confident as an insider in the resource scarcity etc...I'd buy Harmony as soon as possible! In other news, John Hussman released his monthly newsletter today. Solid gold as usual, highly recommend: https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190603/
  13. I bought BAE today for the first time. The comment on Australia's frigate purchases struck home. There is too much history of war, or at least sabre rattling, to distract a populace from economic problems. You can already see anti-West anger being stirred in China on the back of Huawei, trade war insults etc. Then I see Imran Khan being a rude prick to King Salman of KSA (another warmonger), Iran being threatened to be 'ended' by the Orange One, and Putin apparently (being accused of?) testing low yield nuclear devices in the Arctic. I'm also buying oil again.
  14. Yes I see what you're saying, if low grade miners are currently considered worthless. I haven't quite thought through the resource -> price scenarios yet. I was really surprised that high grade ore bodies are mostly depleted, and no new ones and I guess I was thinking of my own resource, oil, where you can still find whole countries full of top quality stuff (Guyana). When there is a bull run in price, the high quality oil resouces are pumped at maximum because they have low per barrel costs, and higher margins. For companies with 'good' fields, their share price can explode. An example is the Elgin-Franklin field. It's a 'good' one, highly productive with c.$8 a barrel opex. Every company in the North Sea wants to buy a piece of it, as it's a licence to print money. But there are very very few like that left. Anyone who owns something like that in a bull will have money coming out tbeir ears and be buying companies, investors loving it etc etc I guess what also happens is that companies with shitty resouces become profitable, as you point out. In oil, that already happened in the 2009-2014 bull, (i.e) the shale patch. If thats not happened yet in gold, it's probably coming. If reserve upgrades are like oil, once price moves up the likes of Harmony will be booking more once crappy ore to reserves, and add have the value added to the balance sheet. Perhaps its a timing thing. If there are still companies who own high grade accesible ore, I thinl they will shoot up first. And then probably buy the pick of the next tier with the cashflow. Keen to hear your thoughts, Ive a fair bit to learn on the mining side.
  15. It boils down to the rule of law I think. Everyone is shit scared of the US dept justice. Foreign or domestic. Ni matter who you are there is a risk of being thrown into one of their hell holes and the key thrown away. Americans know this, and it tempers the worst excesses of natual self interest. Similar in the UK, more humane of course, but I was pleasantly delighted to see politicians jailed here fir expenses fraud. Woyld never happen in my country. In fact I'd wager China decided on the forced tech transfer policy becsuse of the DOJ. Couldnt risk nicking anything (wholesale) on US soil so just play on greed and get western tech built in China. I bet Mrs Huawei regrets transferring planes in Canada. DOJ has long arms. When all this blows up the likes of the UK and USA will still be standing, and thriving, because of the rule of law (I do hope they jail more white collar criminals this time though). Who in their right mind would trust their money or their property rights to China? I don't understand why more emerging markets don't implement strong systems, they would hoover up capital.