georgist

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About georgist

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  1. Osborne literally said it would "create a nice little housing boom", so the aim was clearly to pump prices. Everyone knew it would do this, no question. Yet the FT wrote as though this was a surprise. Fuck those guys.
  2. I'm normally bearish, but I'm having a hard time seeing flags on this:
  3. The Montreal reference is pretty ill-informed. Montreal had a separatist movement, is far more socialist and taxes land more. It also doesn't have as many English speaking people, who are generally more into unearned rentier gains. Montreal is on the up, it's not like Vancouver, people have actual jobs here realated to *shock* making stuff.
  4. Couple of things to add to that interesting post. 1. Montreal is coming from a lower base because: - prior seperatism movement (now on the wane) - higher land taxes (still going strong) 2. BoC are rumoured to be extending the max term from 25 to 30 years, Poloz is truly the bastard son of Carney
  5. He's never worked for anything, he's a speculator. He's not an entrepreneur, he's a speculator. Let him die on the street like others he has locked out of housing for his own gain. jj VCs are kind of parasites. In a fairer system they'd never be able to amass the huge capital gains that then allow them to dip further into worker's pockets.
  6. You will be, by proxy. The additional credit supplied will push up prices further, forcing others to bid against them and themselves taking on more debt than would occur without this product.
  7. it's an inevitable consequence of rising rates. as debt burden on landlords rise they search for higher yield. but because they are all unoriginal, stupid and lazy, they all do the same thing. hopefully the state will pick them off for taxes / fines like mad.
  8. This is also happening in Montreal. AirBnb is getting more and more push-back from authorities. Like so many manias, people joining AirBnB now have missed the boat.
  9. Most FTSE 100 are international. This is why @Telegraph has constant "news" that FTSE has dropped but GBP is up, or vice-versa. My point is that you don't need to go to NYSE etc to get out of UK risk.
  10. Hi DB. Glad to see you over here. I also believe there will be a bout of inflation. But I'm not sure how to play it. I have lots of savings, rent a good place and intend to buy in the future. I see most of what is happening now and in the near future as the logical end of a shift in demographics and the end of an insane level of financialisation which could flourish in boomer land. I have a pet theory that we are going to see wage inflation as boomers drop out the work force, causing skilled labour shortages (no, AI won't pick up the slack). Wage inflation is, IMHO, the only thing the establishment give a fuck about. Wage inflation can lead to financial independence, and the only way to choke it off is to raise rates. So, given the above, I think the order of play *could* be: 1. wage inflation (next 1-5 years) 2. closely followed by interest rate rises as boomers will moan if prices rise (next 3-5 years) 3. asset (land) deflation and tax hikes as govt tries to fund boomer luxury (3-5 years) 4. finally, politicians kicking the boomers to the curb as the demographics tilt to non-boomers (5 years +) 5. reflation / inflation / boomers fooked I write the above to be shot down/have others disagree. Will be interested to see what you and others think, as this site has some interesting people.
  11. Yes on the "unlimited" loss, however in practice of course it's not going to infinity. Regarding hedging, you could do that.
  12. Margin call is on the person holding a leveraged position. For example if you are selling puts and have sold at $270 then the more it drops the more you are liable for. Your broker would see your amount on deposit is less than the amount owned and call you to deposit the difference. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/margincall.asp
  13. Disagree. In a situation of shortage of good homes, rents are based on the ability to pay. This is why prices have gone up whilst rents have been more muted. Prices are based on access to credit / ability to pay the interest (and as rates go lower the landlord can service more debt). Rents are based on ability to pay from wages, which have been flat. Rents (and prices) are absolutely not based on costs + some "fair" profit. If rates go up and landlords presently charging 1500 a month need to get 1800 to cover their costs, if the market cannot bear this price then they will have to lose money. Every month.
  14. The sad thing is, were benefits to be lower, rents would be lower. This is why we have to capture public value for public use: tax land, not labour.
  15. FTSE is looking kinda fooked lately, no? 6 month view somewhat vertiginous: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^FTSE With strong USD and CAD both stepping up to rate rises and BoE unable to do anything this is feeling like UK is in a right pickle.