Harley

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Harley last won the day on November 15 2018

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About Harley

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  1. DYOR, form your own view, take a ticket.....but sometimes worth looking at the very long term picture.... Monthly gold price in GBP (USD is in orange). Again, a bit like a very long term cup and handle chart pattern. The MACD and stochastics have very rarely been aligned like today. But then maybe we have the mother of all put downs! And then there's a chance of a pullback, even a test of the all time high. Looking at the comparative with the USD, etc - and people wonder (immigration, etc besides) why Tescos etc are putting up prices and people have got no money! Gold is averaging a 12% return in GBP (more than all other currencies) per year! Silver similar but with more volatility. The FTSE100, ex-div has managed 4% (really?) in the same period. Interestingly, the FTSE100 yield last year was at a seven year high (range: 3.46% to 4.68%). The FTSE100 v Gold performance suggests a useful partial negative correlation ("down v up" or "up v up" with only one "down v down" year). Interesting to look at other asset classes, but goes to show how overall and over the longer term asset allocation is critical, unless you're a great market timer!
  2. Just to point out a similar liquidity risk, albeit maybe a lesser one, of ETFs and similar collective instruments. As Jim Puplava has pointed out in Financial Sense, there are only a few ETF providers out there so what happens if a lot of people sell their ETFS at the same time? This scenario has not really been tested (given the relatively nascent growth in ETFs). Who is going to buy them or even their underlyings? Liquidity could also dry up somewhat. Smart money may just wait on the sidelines for a huge discount before buying. Or worse, aggravate matters with some shorts. And bond funds are arguably even worse in such a scenario as the fund may need to liquidate longer term bonds well before redemption at a significant "discount", severely impacting the forecast yields to maturity.
  3. I see my mistakes as the cost of doing business - a bit like "continuing professional education"! The key is to not overspend! I took a £450 loss last week on one small trade. I made sure it hurt, so that it was not seen as just internet money, by contrasting it with a recent lumber order for a similar amount and considering the transformation that amount of lumber will make. It was the cost of being reminded to stick to my system. I went back over the trade and saw that although I had a good overall concept, I had no justification putting on the trade at that time. Success requires both the idea and the timing. I broke a rule and got spanked. Fair dues.
  4. Oh, I feel a nice little research project coming on!..... I've tried trading GDX in the past using TA but gave up, having had too many false buy signals. But maybe a bit of yin and yang in that when you get it right you make tons, which maybe offsets the losses (as opposed to more turtle like trades). I'll re-assess (something to always do as findings and assumptions do change in this game) but moving on to my conclusion at the time to trade the constituents for a better result (discussed some months ago).... I'll take a group of miners and run them through my momentum based TA system for buys and see. Probably not sells as that's more subjective, etc but I'll see. My system isn't anything special other than it's a system rather than hormones, bias, etc but it should act as a fair TA proxy. So which stocks to consider....... Maybe a good start would be a subset of @sancho panza's recent list: Any other candidates? PS: May take a little while as I have another life outside of this malarkey!
  5. A timely post for any newbies who may be nicely up following DB et al advice. Are you good traders or good at finding the right internet forums? Take care out there or you risk being sucked in and spat out. Nothing wrong with taking profits, especially covering your initial capital, and maybe investing some gains in buying (and reading!) a few books or attending courses. Apologies if you're all seasoned pros but I've been at this game a long time and still make many dumb mistakes due to stuff like the above. Bottom line, it requires bl**dy hard work to stay in this game over the longer term.
  6. @Sideysid @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker @Cosmic Apple @Anyone else! Thought about a PM but believe best to fix things in kind so apologies for being a prat! PS: Wish I had done this rather than extend my fixed line (and monthly cost) to fibre.
  7. I have a ton of good quality household stuff to get rid of, know of a youngster setting up home, but no, wants all new. Would have thought I'd won the lottery back in the day.
  8. I've tried and am perfectly safe and boring....go on punk, make me day!
  9. Apologies, I missed a "not"!.... Everything's a mix of cross currents and possibly not enough to stem the posssible coming tsunami but something to consider.
  10. You can go up the professional ladder here and in other western countries with the same results. Marc Faber was just talking about it. Even mentioned the same situation in his native Switzerland. In part due to tectonic changes in global wealth distribution. And then decades of inflationary monetary policy which has supported such wealth inequality. Monetary policy has made cash trash. Nothing is for free, unless it's taken from elsewhere, with the exception perhaps of honest economic growth of which we've had none for a long time. And then you have to allow for long term exchange rate changes (particularly for us in our open economy). TPTB have been masterful at boiling the frog. The ignorant suffer in tacky bliss while the rest suffer in despair, as the elites look on. @Bricks & Mortar nails it in his link....
  11. Interesting and well written article thanks. I was just thinking how the Great Depression was nearly 100 years ago and then the article mentions Keynes early writings are already over 100 years old. But what a lot of commenting economists are not mentioning is the velocity of money (not a exciting topic for a Keynsian). It's a glacier which will cause havoc when it melts. Cash is trash and has been for a long time now.
  12. I hold some BP and RDS but not enough and their price is now a tad high (lesson learnt - too slow laddering in) so I've been looking elsewhere, such a service firms, for my high yield portfolio. I had a technical bullish signal on WG a while back but the fundamentals look poor. Shame I can't use the US ETFs. Still looking.
  13. I was half asleep at the time but it appears Marc Faber agrees about a deflationary crash. A sometimes odd programme but Marc is in fine form at about 34:30: http://silverinvestor.blogspot.com/2019/07/dr-marc-faber-chris-waltzek-phd-robert.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+blogspot/ARAg+(The+Gold+and+Silver+Review:+Audio+Report)&m=1 Agree with him on most, especially wealth taxes for the non-elites.