Harley

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  1. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Sugarlips in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Thank you everyone.  I'm going to be taking a bit of a hiatus to refocus on a few neglected things. 
    In the meantime stay safe and ensure you're not busy optimising deckchairs while the amateurs are on the bridge:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7dFB7MSOsw
     
  2. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from JFK in How long til lockdown   
    No problem, just wear trunks!
    PS:  Ms Simpson at number 27 requested Speedos!
  3. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Thank you everyone.  I'm going to be taking a bit of a hiatus to refocus on a few neglected things. 
    In the meantime stay safe and ensure you're not busy optimising deckchairs while the amateurs are on the bridge:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7dFB7MSOsw
     
  4. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Thank you everyone.  I'm going to be taking a bit of a hiatus to refocus on a few neglected things. 
    In the meantime stay safe and ensure you're not busy optimising deckchairs while the amateurs are on the bridge:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7dFB7MSOsw
     
  5. Cheers
    Harley got a reaction from BadAlchemy in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Thank you everyone.  I'm going to be taking a bit of a hiatus to refocus on a few neglected things. 
    In the meantime stay safe and ensure you're not busy optimising deckchairs while the amateurs are on the bridge:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7dFB7MSOsw
     
  6. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from UnconventionalWisdom in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Thank you everyone.  I'm going to be taking a bit of a hiatus to refocus on a few neglected things. 
    In the meantime stay safe and ensure you're not busy optimising deckchairs while the amateurs are on the bridge:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7dFB7MSOsw
     
  7. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from UnconventionalWisdom in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Welcome and yes a great point!  IMO this CV thing has the potential to change a lot of things.  Working from home has been resisted by middle managers who need the feeling of control (because they lack proper management skills and an understanding of what people actually technically do).  OK a bit of a cliche but I know some HR professionals who would agree.  Some management needs to technically understand some things at a better level and learn to manage inputs, outputs and exceptions.  And also get a proper job!  Not all people can work from home but there could still be some decentralisation to improve business resilience.  Plus, people may no longer be prepared to commute as before.  Inflation (travel costs, etc) may be another driver to work closer to home.  And a realisation about quality of life is another factor (no wonder they want people to stay in doors!).  And once all this starts, what does this mean for the largely unto now cosseted South East (time for a change)?  On the downside, we could go back to the virtual equivalence of the old daily hire from outside the factory gates with just the cream having those great jobs.  One thing, its gonna change somehow.
  8. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from UnconventionalWisdom in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Sun is out, market is up nicely, government is "doing something"........so I'm getting ready to sell!
    Maybe I've been listening to some wrong'uns but I kind of agree any melt up will be followed by worse.  It's not CV per se that worries me but all the other stuff and collateral damage.  A bit like today's delivery.  Stock is there but the HGV drivers are awol (reserve list, taking care at home on 80%, etc).  Financially, I worry about banks.  Not that they'll go bust but that there will be bail ins under the newish laws to stop that, at my expense. 
    I thought about what an inflationary or deflationary depression would look like while listening to more Max Keiser last night.  Something we don't do so much here as we focus on the financials.  But as we'll see, the financials are just a part of the picture.  As investors, we need a diversified approach!  The following is not advice but some thoughts to stimulate others to contribute ideas.  The power of crowds and all that.  Everyone can contribute as this is wider than the current market set up.  Indeed, those claiming ignorance of such things may have more to contribute by that fact plus other knowledge which could be leveraged as my thesis is maybe we should be broadening our definition of investment and thinking outside the current box.  One idea in a thousand could be all it takes.    
    Physically, I partially moved off grid a while back.  This latest twist is the nudge I need to do more.  I had a nudge back in 2009 when I knew what QE would do but I did not follow through (buy the market).  Not again.  But this is not QE this time though so a change of tack is needed to get ahead of the curve.  I'm not sure what that means but I fear all my previous risk analysis (see thread: regulation, etc) is now relevant.  I'm still debating (getting time) to go into pension draw-down but this time not just to lock that in but to take a wodge for safety.  I'll leave some on the investment table though as balance is key.
    Thinking as broadly as my rather blinkered mind can:
    Physical PMs.  At home, to a point but hard and expensive (atm) to sell back and could be regulations covering that.  The security aspect is a two edged sword (possession versus theft).  Plus investment risk.  So a limited (less than 100%) holding.  At a custodian?  Again a bit but regulation, investment, and now counterparty risk.   
    Bitcoin.  Still new to me and has shown high investment risk, but it surely has a place (the question is just how much and which forms).  What other things could be used as well, not just alt coins but other things?  Needs a bit of thinking through living in scenarios.  For example, toilet paper?!
    Physical cash at home.  To a point but could become a cropper with changes like in India.  I stored some twenties once and had to go to London to get them changed when they were withdrawn from circulation.  That put me well into the system.  They even knew my partner had done it before me and questioned me about that!  And that was not a lot of money.
    Government bonds.  They have a place, especially to (partially) secure those funds waiting for a market bottom (if seen) or at least a hedge for a further notch down in the markets.  But risks (e.g. currency).  Also long or short term?  DB says(?) not a long term hold but maybe something to fade out of into equities, etc if holding too much cash is too risky. 
    Equities.  These have a place but even finally faltered in the end in the Wiemar inflationary depression.  I like SPs list (plus a regional focus towards the East (given their CV performance) and maybe emerging markets).  But then income or growth or total return?  A bit of all I guess (with sector/region being more important).  I must admit being caught out with my income portfolio idea.  Obvious really that they could cut dividends (that being more important for me for a buy and hold income portfolio than share price). 
    Trading (any instruments).  Maybe a bit of trading on the side to generate some income.  Hate to see a bit of volatility go to waste!  But right now I've had bigger priorities investing in things outside the financial system.          
    Hard assets (other than PMs).  These could either be physical (land, property, etc) but also derivatives (such as commodities).  Land , etc could lose value or shoot up but as one property investor once told me, always have some cash to snap up bargains (such is the nature of the market).  Commodities are an issue in terms of risk (counter-party, contango v backwardisation, etc).  I lost a bit last time round on a locked commodity fund.
    Last but not least, my #1 investment effort right now: things, productive things, things that provide direct value to my life.  Use my funds to build a more self sustainable lifestyle.  I need to think that through but livestock, solar, allotment+ are top of my list.  The key (through actual experience and some what-if analysis) is to build in redundancy in such things as energy.  We have oil heating, but wood and bottled gas.  We have oil hot water but also a bottled gas shower and wood.  We have a supermarket, but also an allotment.  We have mains water but also a disused bore hole, access to a stream, water stores and rain water harvesting going in.  I need to build this list.  All this is not reactive and a potential waste as this is how I would actually like to live my life!     
    So any other ideas, however off the wall, etc?  One left field idea can lay waste to thousands of box filled ones!  Something like a toilet paper making machine!
  9. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from AlfredTheLittle in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    OK, very funny, who did it?  Now down for the day!
  10. Lol
    Harley got a reaction from Loki in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    OK, very funny, who did it?  Now down for the day!
  11. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from TheCountOfNowhere in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Could have sold out my holding when it was up 20% this morning but no.  I would have crystallised a loss for what?  The ball is still in play over the intermediate/longer term.  The original longer term reasons to buy are still there.  I could have said I would have bought back but I know I'd miss the boat and anyway this holding is not a trade.  We were taught in a firefight to move forward because the chances were we entered it OK and perversely it can be better than the alternative.  OK, not quite that brave but I ain't falling back just yet!
  12. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Austin Allegro in Coronavirus: Prince Charles tests positive but   
    Blood sample please or it hasn't happened and we're not all in it together!
  13. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from onlyme in How long til lockdown   
    Been well behaved working around the house in a rural setting and it's been quite busy on the roads.  OK, farmers going about their work but someone visiting their retreat outside of town, youngsters bombing around in their farmer daddy bought cars, etc.  I wish I was a special person too but I'm not so alas I may catch it or help kill someone!  This lock down either exists or it does not so eff the self justification.  All quietly noted.  What goes round comes around.
  14. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from The Idiocrat in How long til lockdown   
    Been well behaved working around the house in a rural setting and it's been quite busy on the roads.  OK, farmers going about their work but someone visiting their retreat outside of town, youngsters bombing around in their farmer daddy bought cars, etc.  I wish I was a special person too but I'm not so alas I may catch it or help kill someone!  This lock down either exists or it does not so eff the self justification.  All quietly noted.  What goes round comes around.
  15. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Austin Allegro in How long til lockdown   
    Shocking but I liked the Huff Post guy's questions today.  Shame they weren't all answered!  The construction industry does seem to do well.  Not exactly clear why they have been favoured, again.
    The Sun guy sounded surprisngly respectable and sensible in his question until I thought of the likely headline tomorrow - "Boris puts the Brakes on Bonking", etc.
    PS:  The Health Sect needs to find some balls and call out the mayor a lot more clearly for the reduction in tube services.  But then, those construction workers on the tube......!
    PPS: Before building more hospitals and providing so many resources for London and it's many non (or comparably recent or low) tax payers, maybe the Govt would like to level the playing field across the UK first.  You know, those places outside London where people have been paying taxes all their lives but have relatively few ITU beds, etc.  I doubt London is any worse off regarding resources than elsewhere so just mentioning the London grab is sick.  If they use the flimsy excuse London is ahead, why no mention of what is being done in preparation now like that elsewhere - because.....nothing comparable is being done.  Get your effing heads out of your London arses for once in your privilaged elitist lives.  We don't want cake, we want ITU beds, ventilators, more general beds, etc.  And we need them in the same numbers as you.
  16. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from NTB in How long til lockdown   
    Part of me says people should have stashed away rainy day funds, then part of me says people have been shafted financially for so long that's hard, but then another part says they all have stuff and spent it like whatever, then another part chips in and says they've been manipulated so well, but this other part says more fool them and it's time to learn, and then I think of......
    PS:  Maybe if they hadn't paid so much tax for the government to fritter away in the first place maybe they would be less inclined now to ask the government to screw them some more by printing worthless money (worthless because there has been no corresponding growth so more money chasing the same goods equals higher prices so we all get to pay, except them.  There is no bank vault where they store all those taxes - all gone, lots, all "invested"!!!!).
  17. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Sun is out, market is up nicely, government is "doing something"........so I'm getting ready to sell!
    Maybe I've been listening to some wrong'uns but I kind of agree any melt up will be followed by worse.  It's not CV per se that worries me but all the other stuff and collateral damage.  A bit like today's delivery.  Stock is there but the HGV drivers are awol (reserve list, taking care at home on 80%, etc).  Financially, I worry about banks.  Not that they'll go bust but that there will be bail ins under the newish laws to stop that, at my expense. 
    I thought about what an inflationary or deflationary depression would look like while listening to more Max Keiser last night.  Something we don't do so much here as we focus on the financials.  But as we'll see, the financials are just a part of the picture.  As investors, we need a diversified approach!  The following is not advice but some thoughts to stimulate others to contribute ideas.  The power of crowds and all that.  Everyone can contribute as this is wider than the current market set up.  Indeed, those claiming ignorance of such things may have more to contribute by that fact plus other knowledge which could be leveraged as my thesis is maybe we should be broadening our definition of investment and thinking outside the current box.  One idea in a thousand could be all it takes.    
    Physically, I partially moved off grid a while back.  This latest twist is the nudge I need to do more.  I had a nudge back in 2009 when I knew what QE would do but I did not follow through (buy the market).  Not again.  But this is not QE this time though so a change of tack is needed to get ahead of the curve.  I'm not sure what that means but I fear all my previous risk analysis (see thread: regulation, etc) is now relevant.  I'm still debating (getting time) to go into pension draw-down but this time not just to lock that in but to take a wodge for safety.  I'll leave some on the investment table though as balance is key.
    Thinking as broadly as my rather blinkered mind can:
    Physical PMs.  At home, to a point but hard and expensive (atm) to sell back and could be regulations covering that.  The security aspect is a two edged sword (possession versus theft).  Plus investment risk.  So a limited (less than 100%) holding.  At a custodian?  Again a bit but regulation, investment, and now counterparty risk.   
    Bitcoin.  Still new to me and has shown high investment risk, but it surely has a place (the question is just how much and which forms).  What other things could be used as well, not just alt coins but other things?  Needs a bit of thinking through living in scenarios.  For example, toilet paper?!
    Physical cash at home.  To a point but could become a cropper with changes like in India.  I stored some twenties once and had to go to London to get them changed when they were withdrawn from circulation.  That put me well into the system.  They even knew my partner had done it before me and questioned me about that!  And that was not a lot of money.
    Government bonds.  They have a place, especially to (partially) secure those funds waiting for a market bottom (if seen) or at least a hedge for a further notch down in the markets.  But risks (e.g. currency).  Also long or short term?  DB says(?) not a long term hold but maybe something to fade out of into equities, etc if holding too much cash is too risky. 
    Equities.  These have a place but even finally faltered in the end in the Wiemar inflationary depression.  I like SPs list (plus a regional focus towards the East (given their CV performance) and maybe emerging markets).  But then income or growth or total return?  A bit of all I guess (with sector/region being more important).  I must admit being caught out with my income portfolio idea.  Obvious really that they could cut dividends (that being more important for me for a buy and hold income portfolio than share price). 
    Trading (any instruments).  Maybe a bit of trading on the side to generate some income.  Hate to see a bit of volatility go to waste!  But right now I've had bigger priorities investing in things outside the financial system.          
    Hard assets (other than PMs).  These could either be physical (land, property, etc) but also derivatives (such as commodities).  Land , etc could lose value or shoot up but as one property investor once told me, always have some cash to snap up bargains (such is the nature of the market).  Commodities are an issue in terms of risk (counter-party, contango v backwardisation, etc).  I lost a bit last time round on a locked commodity fund.
    Last but not least, my #1 investment effort right now: things, productive things, things that provide direct value to my life.  Use my funds to build a more self sustainable lifestyle.  I need to think that through but livestock, solar, allotment+ are top of my list.  The key (through actual experience and some what-if analysis) is to build in redundancy in such things as energy.  We have oil heating, but wood and bottled gas.  We have oil hot water but also a bottled gas shower and wood.  We have a supermarket, but also an allotment.  We have mains water but also a disused bore hole, access to a stream, water stores and rain water harvesting going in.  I need to build this list.  All this is not reactive and a potential waste as this is how I would actually like to live my life!     
    So any other ideas, however off the wall, etc?  One left field idea can lay waste to thousands of box filled ones!  Something like a toilet paper making machine!
  18. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Melchett in How long til lockdown   
    Part of me says people should have stashed away rainy day funds, then part of me says people have been shafted financially for so long that's hard, but then another part says they all have stuff and spent it like whatever, then another part chips in and says they've been manipulated so well, but this other part says more fool them and it's time to learn, and then I think of......
    PS:  Maybe if they hadn't paid so much tax for the government to fritter away in the first place maybe they would be less inclined now to ask the government to screw them some more by printing worthless money (worthless because there has been no corresponding growth so more money chasing the same goods equals higher prices so we all get to pay, except them.  There is no bank vault where they store all those taxes - all gone, lots, all "invested"!!!!).
  19. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from The Idiocrat in How long til lockdown   
    The only sense I can make out of the government's initially slow response and later knee jerk of a change in direction was some sort of internal battle between those who really control and milk this country and the administrators (politicians) who finally persuaded them they had to cut back to protect their future income stream.  Boris briefly alluded to some sort of internal strife early on.  No doubt now the rentiers have been persuaded they want this thing to be locked down hard so the money can flow again as soon as possible.  Alternatively, they are absolutely dire given many others here and elsewhere were weeks ahead of them.
  20. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Slow boat?
  21. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in How long til lockdown   
    The only sense I can make out of the government's initially slow response and later knee jerk of a change in direction was some sort of internal battle between those who really control and milk this country and the administrators (politicians) who finally persuaded them they had to cut back to protect their future income stream.  Boris briefly alluded to some sort of internal strife early on.  No doubt now the rentiers have been persuaded they want this thing to be locked down hard so the money can flow again as soon as possible.  Alternatively, they are absolutely dire given many others here and elsewhere were weeks ahead of them.
  22. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in How long til lockdown   
    Why?  Because they are not very good at things like we have to be, day in day out, or face the consequences.  They live in a world of permenant tax payer bail outs where they get to play silly buggers about silly things while lining up their lucrative futures.  They?  The government, the politicians, the Civil Servants, the.......They are just not fit for purpose and we all already know that.
  23. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in How long til lockdown   
    Part of me says people should have stashed away rainy day funds, then part of me says people have been shafted financially for so long that's hard, but then another part says they all have stuff and spent it like whatever, then another part chips in and says they've been manipulated so well, but this other part says more fool them and it's time to learn, and then I think of......
    PS:  Maybe if they hadn't paid so much tax for the government to fritter away in the first place maybe they would be less inclined now to ask the government to screw them some more by printing worthless money (worthless because there has been no corresponding growth so more money chasing the same goods equals higher prices so we all get to pay, except them.  There is no bank vault where they store all those taxes - all gone, lots, all "invested"!!!!).
  24. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Heart's Ease in How long til lockdown   
    Shocking but I liked the Huff Post guy's questions today.  Shame they weren't all answered!  The construction industry does seem to do well.  Not exactly clear why they have been favoured, again.
    The Sun guy sounded surprisngly respectable and sensible in his question until I thought of the likely headline tomorrow - "Boris puts the Brakes on Bonking", etc.
    PS:  The Health Sect needs to find some balls and call out the mayor a lot more clearly for the reduction in tube services.  But then, those construction workers on the tube......!
    PPS: Before building more hospitals and providing so many resources for London and it's many non (or comparably recent or low) tax payers, maybe the Govt would like to level the playing field across the UK first.  You know, those places outside London where people have been paying taxes all their lives but have relatively few ITU beds, etc.  I doubt London is any worse off regarding resources than elsewhere so just mentioning the London grab is sick.  If they use the flimsy excuse London is ahead, why no mention of what is being done in preparation now like that elsewhere - because.....nothing comparable is being done.  Get your effing heads out of your London arses for once in your privilaged elitist lives.  We don't want cake, we want ITU beds, ventilators, more general beds, etc.  And we need them in the same numbers as you.
  25. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Kilham in How long til lockdown   
    The only sense I can make out of the government's initially slow response and later knee jerk of a change in direction was some sort of internal battle between those who really control and milk this country and the administrators (politicians) who finally persuaded them they had to cut back to protect their future income stream.  Boris briefly alluded to some sort of internal strife early on.  No doubt now the rentiers have been persuaded they want this thing to be locked down hard so the money can flow again as soon as possible.  Alternatively, they are absolutely dire given many others here and elsewhere were weeks ahead of them.