Harley

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  1. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from One percent in Jordan Peterson   
    Cambridge.  Once had a university.
  2. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from null; in How much do you drink?   
    How much do I drink?  How much you got?
  3. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from the gardener in Anti-EU populists surge in Dutch election, Nexit risk rises   
    The Netherlands has been a remarkable country throughout history.  Such a small country, which they have expanded through ingenuity and hard work, and refocussed to become a highly successful outward facing trading nation.  Not that I'd buy their tomatoes, sorry!
  4. Cheers
    Harley got a reaction from billfunk in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    A combo of MACD and Stochastics.  Wait for them to break out in a certain way - i.e. momentum.
    I mainly look at weekly data given my available time plus gives a better buy and hold signal (daily means more risk of just optimising a buy in a downtrend).
    Usually good at getting in on the lows but there could always be lower lows later (e.g. VOD)!
    Hard part is when to sell, if a trade.  So now do three lots (assuming success): after the initial spurt, when things look like flagging, when things have started flagging.
    Reliable but nowhere near infallable.  Add some money management and nets out OK though.
    £5,000 for the specifics - took a lot of painstaking research!
    PS: Thanks for sharing your shortlist and will also take a look.
    PPS: For those interested in momentum trading, I found the turtle traders book a good story back in the day.  Highlighted being simple but consistent.
  5. Cheers
    Harley got a reaction from billfunk in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    I got it, I think!
    Brexit has, in a way, ceased to be the issue, if indeed it ever really was.  It was the catalyst back in 2016, a lightning rod for all the bad stuff people were increasingly feeling (but not necessarily "seeing" (articulating) given the expertise of the MSM and Establishment at mass manipulation and our declining deferential nature).  But the Emperor has been steadily divesting his clothes ever since then and is about to stand there totally naked for all to see.  Not just the machinations within Parliament, but everything else is also being swept up in the phenomena.  It's the fatal late stages of greed, to which all eventually succumb, where the Establishment no longer has the ability to adapt to survive, being riddled as it is by so many parasites and vested interests seeking to protect their share of a declining pie.  Brexit is a journey of discovery, of a fundamental realisation, in which each of us is walking at our own pace.  So, in a way, to blame the EU is a bit like that seminal moment in which the masses are told to eat cake.  A pathetic riposte by a lost elite to a hungry nation.  And yet, that is exactly what the decaying Establishment has done.  Importantly, new parties, the Brexit Party or whatever, will only succeed if they can articulate and demonstrate a new vision, not of more frivolous radicalism, but of inherent fundamentalism which reconnects with the people.  A vision in which an honest less is more.  A successful party needs to redefine and expand the meaning of Brexit, to articulate what the masses, not the incestuous few, are desperately seeking and in which they remain so unfulfilled.  Maybe only then can we have a painless transition and renewal.
    Or summing like that!
     
  6. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Van Lady in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    I got it, I think!
    Brexit has, in a way, ceased to be the issue, if indeed it ever really was.  It was the catalyst back in 2016, a lightning rod for all the bad stuff people were increasingly feeling (but not necessarily "seeing" (articulating) given the expertise of the MSM and Establishment at mass manipulation and our declining deferential nature).  But the Emperor has been steadily divesting his clothes ever since then and is about to stand there totally naked for all to see.  Not just the machinations within Parliament, but everything else is also being swept up in the phenomena.  It's the fatal late stages of greed, to which all eventually succumb, where the Establishment no longer has the ability to adapt to survive, being riddled as it is by so many parasites and vested interests seeking to protect their share of a declining pie.  Brexit is a journey of discovery, of a fundamental realisation, in which each of us is walking at our own pace.  So, in a way, to blame the EU is a bit like that seminal moment in which the masses are told to eat cake.  A pathetic riposte by a lost elite to a hungry nation.  And yet, that is exactly what the decaying Establishment has done.  Importantly, new parties, the Brexit Party or whatever, will only succeed if they can articulate and demonstrate a new vision, not of more frivolous radicalism, but of inherent fundamentalism which reconnects with the people.  A vision in which an honest less is more.  A successful party needs to redefine and expand the meaning of Brexit, to articulate what the masses, not the incestuous few, are desperately seeking and in which they remain so unfulfilled.  Maybe only then can we have a painless transition and renewal.
    Or summing like that!
     
  7. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Alonso Quijano in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    Thanks, as is yours!  Your historical context seems spot on.  This new world order is not necessarily a rejection of the past globalisation but an evolution in which the need for monolithic political and social structures such as the EU, uniformity through mass immigration, etc are no longer necessary and actually hinder progress.  The internet, social trends, and the like have made us a complex and virtually connected world.  A physically mirroring through such monoliths has served its purpose and is now archaic in the extreme.  As is monolithic and simplistic binary thinking such as "Brexit equals no immigration" as opposed to an opportunity to establish rationalism and provide a means to express (decent) consensus values.  We need to move to a more sophisticated global place defined by secularism, pluralism, culturalism, and social, economic and political independence co-existing within a dynamic common purpose, using the tools now available to facilitate this state.  The parallel with the rise and then subtle "retreat" of global IT system thinking, design and implementation facilitated by technological progress is stark.  That our current Establishment cannot see this subtlety is offensive at an intellectual as well as practical level.  Temporarily hindering it, in some sort of Canute sort of way, will only set us back as a nation as the prize slips from our hands and we play catch up.  But such is our (their) historic way.
  8. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Alonso Quijano in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    I got it, I think!
    Brexit has, in a way, ceased to be the issue, if indeed it ever really was.  It was the catalyst back in 2016, a lightning rod for all the bad stuff people were increasingly feeling (but not necessarily "seeing" (articulating) given the expertise of the MSM and Establishment at mass manipulation and our declining deferential nature).  But the Emperor has been steadily divesting his clothes ever since then and is about to stand there totally naked for all to see.  Not just the machinations within Parliament, but everything else is also being swept up in the phenomena.  It's the fatal late stages of greed, to which all eventually succumb, where the Establishment no longer has the ability to adapt to survive, being riddled as it is by so many parasites and vested interests seeking to protect their share of a declining pie.  Brexit is a journey of discovery, of a fundamental realisation, in which each of us is walking at our own pace.  So, in a way, to blame the EU is a bit like that seminal moment in which the masses are told to eat cake.  A pathetic riposte by a lost elite to a hungry nation.  And yet, that is exactly what the decaying Establishment has done.  Importantly, new parties, the Brexit Party or whatever, will only succeed if they can articulate and demonstrate a new vision, not of more frivolous radicalism, but of inherent fundamentalism which reconnects with the people.  A vision in which an honest less is more.  A successful party needs to redefine and expand the meaning of Brexit, to articulate what the masses, not the incestuous few, are desperately seeking and in which they remain so unfulfilled.  Maybe only then can we have a painless transition and renewal.
    Or summing like that!
     
  9. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Alonso Quijano in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    The Tories really are utterly useless at the most basic of coherent strategic action.  It's because of their vested interests, especially the work of their "grandees".  It's now very questionable whether they can re-invent themselves or are simply finished.  May certainly is accelerating their decline, probably by being counselled by the very same VIs and grandees.  Her general election shambles was the equivalent of dangling the Party by its feet out the window but even then the learnings were "rationalised" away.  Her subsequent administration's delusional talk and pathetic behaviour provides an insight into the psyche embedded deep within those governing the Party. 
    They elected Cameron to "out Blair" Blair when they failed to see Blair's sun was setting (things were catching up with his adminstration).  The strategic move would have been to build that place, using the right persona of leader, to where the electorate was clearly already heading.  They were totally on the back foot, preparing for the last war.  Even now, they kid themselves the BAU of time, timely hand outs to the masses, and the horror of Corbyn will see them right.  Brexit was their chance for political immortality, but the VIs and grandees have squandered that for short term gain which suits them given their remaining time.  But short because it is not sustainable over the medium term and toxic to those left.  Yet again, they miss where the electorate is now marching and will again look quite pathetic standing there alone, "Billy no mates". 
    It's all so painful to watch. 
  10. Agree
    Harley reacted to Libspero in How much do you drink?   
    We average less than a bottle of wine a month.
    Just don't have the inclination..   I don't know how people manage to drink and work 5 days a week, but perhaps I'm just getting old and boring.
     
  11. Agree
    Harley reacted to Austin Allegro in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    Excellent post. Brexit is certainly a symptom of a new world order emerging. Only those with their heads in the sand think that Brexit or 'populism' is to blame for all the upheavals we have been seeing in the UK and on the continent. That is like blaming WW2 on the German invasion of Poland.
    I think the Tories could have made a success of Brexit but they are too stuck in the past. The general mindset seems to be from Edward Heath's era, that Britain is a small irrelevant country that has to team up with its neighbours to survive. There may have been some truth in that in the 1960s but global economic conditions have changed now and the country needs to retain a strong and proud cultural and economic independence that will in turn enable it to thrive in a global market.
  12. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from eight in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    I got it, I think!
    Brexit has, in a way, ceased to be the issue, if indeed it ever really was.  It was the catalyst back in 2016, a lightning rod for all the bad stuff people were increasingly feeling (but not necessarily "seeing" (articulating) given the expertise of the MSM and Establishment at mass manipulation and our declining deferential nature).  But the Emperor has been steadily divesting his clothes ever since then and is about to stand there totally naked for all to see.  Not just the machinations within Parliament, but everything else is also being swept up in the phenomena.  It's the fatal late stages of greed, to which all eventually succumb, where the Establishment no longer has the ability to adapt to survive, being riddled as it is by so many parasites and vested interests seeking to protect their share of a declining pie.  Brexit is a journey of discovery, of a fundamental realisation, in which each of us is walking at our own pace.  So, in a way, to blame the EU is a bit like that seminal moment in which the masses are told to eat cake.  A pathetic riposte by a lost elite to a hungry nation.  And yet, that is exactly what the decaying Establishment has done.  Importantly, new parties, the Brexit Party or whatever, will only succeed if they can articulate and demonstrate a new vision, not of more frivolous radicalism, but of inherent fundamentalism which reconnects with the people.  A vision in which an honest less is more.  A successful party needs to redefine and expand the meaning of Brexit, to articulate what the masses, not the incestuous few, are desperately seeking and in which they remain so unfulfilled.  Maybe only then can we have a painless transition and renewal.
    Or summing like that!
     
  13. Agree
    Harley reacted to TheCountOfNowhere in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 2   
    May's deal is nailed on. It always was. Denocracy is a scam. 
     
    Perhaps MPs will see the light and save Britain. I'd not bet on that. 
     
    The stay in the EU pretition seems very well timed, more pressure/vindication for MPs to screw over the people. 
     
    All theae roads lead to the bankers and their housing ponzi imho. Deregulation of bankers never ends well. 
  14. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Lone Lurker in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    Know a lot of MPs do you?
  15. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from The Masked Tulip in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 2   
    Project Fear hasn't been fun either!
  16. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from whocares in Anti-EU populists surge in Dutch election, Nexit risk rises   
    The Netherlands has been a remarkable country throughout history.  Such a small country, which they have expanded through ingenuity and hard work, and refocussed to become a highly successful outward facing trading nation.  Not that I'd buy their tomatoes, sorry!
  17. Agree
    Harley reacted to billfunk in March To Leave Brexit thread   
    The point being that the idea of asking a more difficult question is a canard. People know they are being shafted and they know the EU is key to this shafting.
    I say it time and time again on here: if the EU establishment wanted the British people to believe in their project then they needed to ensure that the standard of life for the majority of Brits was rising generation to generation. That is pretty much all there is to electoral politics. It was the reason Hitler won, it is the reason for communism, for Thatcher, for most US presidents. Almost every time "it's the economy, stupid".
    Blair was an exception. The UK was doing quite well under the Tories - low debt, high wage-to-house-price ratio, free education, high levels of personal freedom, some level of sustainable final salary pensions. It was all down hill from there. The Tories lost it because of their branding and the fact that voters took all that economic stewardship stuff as a given because it had been a generation since the last Labour shambles. Now all that good stuff we used to take for granted has been stolen. Well done Blair and Brown voters. You have got rid of the nasty grey men who have sex with people who aren't their wives, but also wrecked the economy for generations of workers. How proud you all must be!
  18. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from Bedrag Justesen in Anti-EU populists surge in Dutch election, Nexit risk rises   
    The Netherlands has been a remarkable country throughout history.  Such a small country, which they have expanded through ingenuity and hard work, and refocussed to become a highly successful outward facing trading nation.  Not that I'd buy their tomatoes, sorry!
  19. Agree
    Harley got a reaction from The Idiocrat in Anti-EU populists surge in Dutch election, Nexit risk rises   
    The Netherlands has been a remarkable country throughout history.  Such a small country, which they have expanded through ingenuity and hard work, and refocussed to become a highly successful outward facing trading nation.  Not that I'd buy their tomatoes, sorry!
  20. Agree
    Harley reacted to BadAlchemy in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 2   
    Tell them their petition may be nearing a million but naturally it is being pumped on the So-Called BBC and all the lamestream media. Whereas the petition to exit on WTO reached 369K without getting any exposure in the media at all.
    Yes, and also remind them about the little petition we had back in 2016.
    Finally, tell them to shove their petition firmly up their arses.
  21. Agree
    Harley reacted to snaga in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 2   
    French production? seem the French understand brexit better than our own MPs
  22. Agree
    Harley reacted to ElKapitan84 in Brexit Betrayal thread - Part 2   
    Sounds like timely fake news.
  23. Cheers
    Harley got a reaction from M.C. UK in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Tidy x 2!
    I'm off to screen Morningstar!
  24. Cheers
    Harley reacted to Castlevania in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Vanguard last year changed their precious metal fund from one 100% in precious metal miners to a more general one for an inflation cycle with only 25% in precious metal miners and rebadged it the Vangurd Global Capital Cycles fund. The list of assets they hold as at year end is here and should give you some ideas (or just buy their fund and forget about it).
    https://advisors.vanguard.com/web/c1/fas-investmentproducts/0053/portfolio#composition-tab-set
     
  25. Agree
    Harley reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.   
    Telcos,transports,energy,miners,delivery networks,and a handful of consumer stocks.For debt i want it fixed at low rates,a nice even spread of coming due,and not too much to re-finance before around 2027.
    For VOD they have too much debt,but its fixed at very low rates.As long as its managed well bond holders have really simply funded the profits for equity while they take a bath.
    Of course crucial to all the above is keeping free cash at decent levels even if dividends need to be cut.Only the strongest will be able to re-finance.