JMD

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About JMD

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  1. Yes, buying those types of reflation stocks on your radar, and at decent prices/ladders (hopefully), definitely gives an investment edge. i.e. it is a great advantage over many investors who are still expecting (incorrectly) for growth stocks, consumer sectors, etc, to do well in the coming cycle. But looking under the hood of a company, debt, fcf, etc - an area in which i am personally trying to learn more about - allows comparison between companies... Although i believe a useful rough-proxy for all/most metrics/ratios is the 'enterprise value/ebitda'? However, I admit i don't know enough about these things - so if anyone of the experts here are able to comment on that particular ratio it would be greatly appreciated.
  2. Reformed Nice Guy, re your earlier list... its a good selection of company stocks, and admit i have my eye on most of those ones also. But how did you calculate your buy prices? Are they based on 'fair value' (balance sheet fundamentals, etc), or just what you expect future market corrections to be?
  3. Thanks Harley, yes they have made acquisitions over recent years and done share buybacks, but refreshingly all funded by profits. Though they don't buy at any price, sometimes allowing themselves to be outbid, so they appear to have good conservative management. My buy price is low but it will become part of my watch list and am anticipating another market correction buying opportunity.
  4. Harley, identifying 2-4 stocks in place of holding an etf/fund sector is definitely an interesting strategy. Particularly effective i think if using a 'value' approach, as many etf/funds generally hold too many growth stocks. I will continue a hybrid of stocks/funds/etf's because i unfortunately haven't the skills to select an all stock approach. Perhaps you might remember a discussion we had last year about there not being any good semi-conductor etf's? Well i still can't find any good ones. So for this sector i am instead looking for some individual companies. Harley, i wonder if semi-conductors are one of your chosen sectors would you care to share which stocks you are buying/looking at? In return i can only offer a single potential one of SkyWorks - have you heard of it?, it's a US company with no debt(!), so would be interested in your analysis if you have time to look at its fundamentals. It is currently expensive, but i plan to buy if it falls below $100.
  5. I agree, i think they will be broken up. The US has a history of doing this type of thing. Peter Thiel (paypal) says many interesting things about the tech sector. In fact i think he has many interesting views and ideas about our future in general, and well worth watching his other You Tube videos.
  6. Democorruptcy, yes i agree. I think this and your earlier posts about the woeful 'average share price info.' shows up just how casual - and irreverent toward their own customers - these financial platforms really are. On a related note, does anyone know what these trading platforms do with the data they have about our trades? i.e. are they allowed to process/analyse it? I know we now have European data protection laws in place, but can't help thinking about the many millions of trades, etc, and how this is very valuable data for these platforms, i.e. do they use it/sell it to others to aid hedge funds or others in taking up the other side of the trade, shorting, etc? So even if data was sold on 'anonymised', wouldn't this still represent a form of insider dealing? It's just that i've not heard this aspect discussed, and don't remember any mention about this concerning the financial trading sector when the new privacy laws were being enacted. Although there was lots of talk, for example, about marketing data, and NHS data, etc.
  7. Ok, please don't snigger or automatically dismiss as witchcraft(!) (btw, don't think you guys are like that) - but this is a question about the Benner cycle, based i think originally on the agricultural cycle (article link below). To be honest, cycle theory work is a bit beyond me, but many of the years do seem pretty accurate. The thing is, as the below faded historical document shows, this was published in 1875! Extract below: Top line are crash-years, middle-line are market-high-years (is 1981 relevant?; however 1989, 1999, 2007, 2019 are - sorta - all there, at least for the macro investor they seem useful markers?)... So according to this, 2026 (approx) will be THE year to sell (divest completely/cash out)? And 2035 (approx) will be THE monetary meltdown crash? http://silvanfrank.com/prophets-of-wall-street/ I'm thinking that the Benner cycle predictions appear to be in tune with this blog's cycle timing. So is this prophetical/mere confirmation bias/or a latter day 'philosophers stone'? (no, not a harry potter reference!). Economic cycle theories have been mentioned here before, but is Benner perhaps the forefather of them all? What do others think? I suppose all cycle theories are easy to dismiss. However, i did see this other article, written before the December 2018 crash. It explores the application of Fibonacci numbers to the Benner cycle (work done in 1967), and where the article author at one point writes (article's own bold/exclamation): 'The Benner Fibonacci is now suggesting a High right in 2018!' https://iaminwallstreet.com/do-not-forget-the-benner-fibonacci-cycle/
  8. CP, sorry to hear that but wouldn't your employer retrain you in renewables, assuming of course that your skills are transferable? Saying this probably betrays my ignorance of the oil sector! (btw, PM's are not strictly a 'stock', but i did like what you did there! However, apologies if you were talking gold/silver miners?) But in terms of favourite sectors and next-cycle-sectors that will run their assets/cash flow ahead of inflation, are there other ones apart from energy/telecoms/potash? Health is probably another sector, but not so clear which parts of that industry will benefit. ...but beyond this, I guess much greater thinking has to be done into which (sub?) sectors might do particularly well from the coming industrial/infrastructure cycle boom. Steel/chemical has been mentioned before, but are there others to be aware of?
  9. MSC, I just saw this video (so many of these type of commentators are crap, but he seems to be a level headed sensible guy), there is also a part one. Interesting as he goes through his own analysis and recommends 4 stocks, all have low (and reducing) debt, fcf, etc. He selects Euronav, but doesn't choose Frontline because of high debts. I believe shipping co's are risky, but what do others think? ...Are these a reflation play? - i.e. at these low prices, so long as they have low debt for their sector, good fundamentals, would these co's fall under the 'company with assets' category? After all, global freight will still be needed short+long term, despite the looming China trade wars risk?
  10. With PM prices on the up, is anyone considering buying platinum? Platinum prices have hardly moved, but the article below (5 year old but still relevant to today i think) has good Gold vs Platinum price chart. I couldn't find the 50 year chart i was really looking for - for 1970-2020 - as this also shows platinum trending closely with gold but again interestingly with platinum price always at higher to gold. https://stockhouse.com/opinion/independent-reports/2015/04/20/platinum-or-gold-here-where-to-put-your-money-today ...found a more recent article with a 120 year chart!!! https://sdbullion.com/blog/platinum-value-vs-gold
  11. Great article. Will the prospect of these type of power plants nudge out the need for nuclear? I acknowledge the base-load argument for having nuclear, but the article mentions that electrolysis/hydrogen plants might also offer the (holy grail) solution to the problem of green energy storage. I assume lots of (sea) water is needed, but the article doesn't mention this? If so, i guess China/India (hot countries with expansive dry inland areas) will still need to go nuclear eventually, once they stop building their coal power plants that is.
  12. Yes, Princes of the Yen is a classic. I saw it many years ago and at that time i would have commented that Japan had been allowed to extend and blend its war economy right through into the 1990's. Today, such atypical state command of national economies is becoming the new normal. Oh, and we all now have a Covid-Conflict (contrived war?) to contend with! (i add that Richard Werner himself is highly dubious of the whole Covid panic thing)
  13. DB, I don't follow why you say US is defined by the civil war. Many countries experience civil wars and my view would be that the US has actually made a good job of moving on from the high casualties of that relatively recent conflict. And civil wars are usually particularly fractious, pitting friends and families against each other and where the opposition are not just enemies, but traitors. So Isn't it really more to do with politics since the war where more and more federal government interference has continually crept into individual states, increasing tax flows back to central government, and where many think the constitution has been trampled on. My point would be all this fly's in the face of American libertarian sentiment and their very high mistrust of all out of state authority, with many Americans thinking that even the FBI to be an illegitamate organisation.
  14. I agree that political leadership is required. And yes it's not all about money and economics. However some states operate as near tax havens to attract investment and industry etc. This dislocation can't continue. So my main point was that a new constitutional settlement was needed. That big discussion is probably decades too late happening but we'll worth attempting i think.
  15. I am no apologist for the American empire, but then again it was a pretty benign empire by historical standards. I was merely pointing out the limited set of options available (hopefully with leadership a path can be successfully steered), but of course I have no personal crystal ball, and the reason for offering up a view is to help underline my perspective that it's not all definite catastrophy ahead. Having ideas on how countries might change over the next 20 years simply helps me either confidently invest, or steer clear. Btw I think I did actually suggest that parts of US society was unravelling, and will continue to do so... so will respectfully decline your unnecessary offer of 'magic beans'.