The Grey Man

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  1. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Bedrag Justesen in Ghislaine didn't kill herself   
    BBC2 Newsnight US Correspondent David Grossman reported she was moved from Merrimack County Jail in New Hampshire to the Metropolitan Detention Centre in Brooklyn, New York on Monday.
    She will appear at Federal Court hearing today (Thursday).
  2. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from sancho panza in Government borrowing and why this isn't "the one"   
    I am figuring these black swans are more common than we appreciate.
    Taking the 2000s alone we have had more than a few. 
    Dot com
    9/11....think outside the box
    The banks collapse
    CV
    You could even add the shadow Chinese bank system post our banks issue that was rarely highlighted.
    The spectre of a cold war.or worse, and who sides with who further spreads risks or gains.
    Banked on sterling being crap for the last 15 years and done ok.
    That was a gamble and pure luck
    With everyone for the most part, racing to the bottom full.cash holdings seems unsafe.
    The question of how long plates can be spun..of the view now ....its always longer than I guess.
  3. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Virgil Caine in Prince harry talks absolute bollox.   
    For a couple who have supposedly renounced life in the U.K. they seem to have an awful lot to say about it. The problem for Harry and Meghan is they really are not newsworthy without the royal connection.
  4. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to maynardgravy in Bank runs starting in China   
    A mere chink in the economy
  5. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Frank Hovis in Government borrowing and why this isn't "the one"   
    First point: look at the second graph; the ratio has shot up from 75% to 100% in a couple of months.
    That's massive and it's projected to go to 110% by the end of July and as to government is going to keep spending that's why I am saying it will go to 150%.  Now that's high for peacetime but you can gradually recover from that.
    However if there is another big shock on top of that requiring similar spending then you are into post war levels of debt at over 200%; and that won't just be due to borrowing but to economic contraction. Then you are going to get a sovereign downgrade and inflammation will start devaluing the currency.
    Second point: it's a ratio of Debt to GDP; in words the amount of government borrowing compared to the size of the economy.
    Inflation is automatically brought into account through the GDP measure so that if the debt stays static then inflation-led growth of GDP will drop the ratio.
  6. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Stuey in My Beautiful Pubs   
    I sunk three or four pints in swift measure, so good it was. £2.19 a pint. 
  7. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from Frank Hovis in Government borrowing and why this isn't "the one"   
    I am figuring these black swans are more common than we appreciate.
    Taking the 2000s alone we have had more than a few. 
    Dot com
    9/11....think outside the box
    The banks collapse
    CV
    You could even add the shadow Chinese bank system post our banks issue that was rarely highlighted.
    The spectre of a cold war.or worse, and who sides with who further spreads risks or gains.
    Banked on sterling being crap for the last 15 years and done ok.
    That was a gamble and pure luck
    With everyone for the most part, racing to the bottom full.cash holdings seems unsafe.
    The question of how long plates can be spun..of the view now ....its always longer than I guess.
  8. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from Hail the Tripod in Hoisted by their own Petard thread   
    This. From The Guardianista. A fight for freedom of speech ...in Hong Kong. The restrictions of mainland China about to be enforced in HK.
    https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/08/china-great-firewall-descends-hong-kong-internet-users
    I support 100 percent.
    Why do they, the G, not support such views and process in the UK then?
    Full of it.
     
  9. Lol
    The Grey Man got a reaction from whocares in Stamp duty holiday!   
    @helptheskintestateagentsgiveusthestampdutydifference.
    Shit. Thats a mouthful.
  10. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to gibbon in Stamp duty holiday!   
    All this means is BTL slumlords will have bit more cash to spend on their new range rover instead. Won't effect the residential market whatsoever. People will still be priced out.
  11. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Bedrag Justesen in Stamp duty holiday!   
    One EA on ITV News tells us buyers are coming in offering full asking price now they are saving Stamp Duty.  
  12. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to stokiescum in Government borrowing and why this isn't "the one"   
    I don’t think it’s just the youth maybe it’s those under 35 might even go above that age .maybe an idea for another thread 
  13. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to stokiescum in Government borrowing and why this isn't "the one"   
    Like I did 8 years ago I figured they are down 20% I can’t see much more of a drop comeing I got lucky .dont forget they could easily bring in a million hong kongers within 12 months
  14. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from Conniption in Ghislaine didn't kill herself   
    https://m.estately.com/listings/info/338-east-washington--1
     
    This? Fits the bill ..nice....bolthole.
  15. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Frank Hovis in Government borrowing and why this isn't "the one"   
    Listening to some analysis of the mini-budget from "insiders" there will be another year of running up the debt to keep unemployment down and the economy moving; and more time beyond that if required.
    Anything necessary will be done to minimise the contraction of the economy with the understanding that once the economy begins to grow again the props will be steadily removed to start bringing in the tax income necessary to start paying down the debt.
    Hearing that this mini-budget reads like simply the opening salvo; temporary measures will be extended and new ones added.
    Taxes are not going up any time soon and nor are interest rates.
    Anyone who has been hoping for a reset - particularly of house prices - well you are out of luck this time IMO.
     
    And here's why:
    This is the long term debt to gdp curve.  Note the peaks after the Napoleonic Wars and the WWI peak blending into the WWII peak.

     
    And here is the current one:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x
     
    It has only just breached 100%; it can go higher.  Much higher; with current interest rates 150% is going to be very tolerable.
     
    Here's current debt raising from May onwards.  If they can keep the economy from contracting then £1,950bn is at 100% per the above graph which ends in May; to go to 150% means another £1,000bn is available.  Of that £180bn is to be raised by the end of July leaving another £820bn to go.  As the highly expensive furlough scheme is winding down that is £820bn to be used to prop and boost the economy.
     
     
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/may2020#debt
     
    Though think it forward to ?three years time and borrowings already at 150%.  At that point the elbow room has gone.  Any black swan event, say limited war with China, and this track cannot be repeated.
    Then you will finally get your house price crash.
     
    It would be a good idea to take the events of the last four months as a dress rehearsal because next time will be for real.  So have a think of what you wish to be holding when it is for real, recession drives unemployment, the gvernment unable to borrow has to whack up taxes to fund the benefits bill.
    Of course there may not be another black swan and we may gently recover from this as we have previous peaks but I think it would be a good idea to hedge your bets a bit here.
     
  16. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Vendetta in Prince harry talks absolute bollox.   
    As we have all said this will end very badly.
    The poor little ginger bastard.....
    I am starting to feel sorry for him.
    He’ll either be dead by 50 or well shot of her. Either way he will be a shell of his former self.....

     
  17. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Knickerless Turgid in The economy is totally and utterly fucked   
    As my dad said to me when dragging me out of bed at 6.30am: "The cows don't know it's fucking Christmas Day".
  18. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from Shamone in Ennio Morricone   
    Superb. This is the defining Mexican three way standoff.
    An amazing score that follows the film on screen exactly.
    That was the work of a , nay,, The Professional.
     
  19. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from haroldshand in Best UK openwater swimming   
    Son did that two years ago. Amazing place
  20. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Battenberg in The economy is totally and utterly fucked   
    I have a 16 year old who took his tractor license this year. He always wanted to drive them. He banged on every farm door since January and finally has some work. He’s getting to use forklifts and tele-handlers too. He hated school and has always preferred outdoor manual activities. What he lacked in GCSE’s he’s made up for in persistence.
  21. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to JoeDavola in When will the big house price falls arrive?   
    We're talking about the budget on whatsapp and I'm hearing some ridiculous stories about people on the benefits train that they know.
    One of them doesnt work and got a fucking hot tub installed last week from her kid's autism benefit pay out.
    Other works 16 horus in M&S and drives a new beamer.
    Clown Economy.
  22. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from ninjaborrower in Ennio Morricone   
    Such a loss. A good innings though to the great understated muscian of a centuary.
    He will truely be appreciated in the manner fit for his genius.
    A struggle to choose from his vast repertoir.
    This is my homage.
    RIP.
    Apols. First link wont work
     
  23. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Lightly Toasted in Gold   
    Only if they're UK legal tender iirc, so britannias or sovereigns but not krugerands.
  24. Agree
    The Grey Man reacted to Frank Hovis in Gold   
    Of course.
    Small amounts so the packages aren't unusually heavy and infrequently so the posties don't associate me with regular receipt.  This also gives me plausible deniability of holidng them since I can say that I take them on holiday and exchange them for foreign currency when abroad.
    Sovereigns for their tax advantages when you come to sell.
    I have no idea if or when there will be another black swan but I think it a good idea to build some up anyway because of possible means-tested care home fees and Labour now openly coming out with a wealth tax poposal.  They say it's only for "the rich" but their idea of rich is probably £100k in non-property investments.
    If they go down that route then gold will finally have the one attribute that it currently lacks - a yield.  Since by being kept physical and off radar it will avoid the wealth tax.
     
  25. Agree
    The Grey Man got a reaction from mooncat69 in Fat bastards feel excluded   
    It is tea Frank. 
    No argument or debate.
    Its written in the last book of the bible. I have the only copy.
    From a grim  northerner. Albeit in the NW. Not sure about the NE. They seem to sound like the folk here in the NW..however..sans sense of humour.
    It is tea. Everyone knows dinner is at midday.
    Lunch is a word created to divide us by early Marxists.