Tdog

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  1. Agree
    Tdog reacted to DurhamBorn in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Nothing has changed as you say,its exactly as we planned for.Il be fully invested if we see more falls and i fully expect i now have some stocks that will 10 bag in my portfolio,and some that might not make it.I can honestly say the big energy companies iv been buying the last few days i will not sell until at least 2026 and maybe even 2028.Im not interested in the narrative "everyone is going to die",they arent.I worked at GSK for 10 years,they are trying to help find something for this,but its not a huge priority apart from the good publicity.Its biggest affect will be bringing a few deaths forward maybe a year on average.Not nice for families,but its what humans have had to deal with since walking out of the Great Rift Valley.
    There is no doubt the reaction to this virus though is causing very large financial dislocation,again what we predicted would happen at the start of the thread.I pity the airlines and travel industry.Its also hitting stocks im buying in the transport sector.No football etc really hits travel,but again what im buying now will be kept until after 2026.Not certain every one will make it of course.If one doesnt tough.it wont hurt as much as my first love dumping me on the railway bridge when i was 16.
    The real story will be whats to come,and thats inflation.It will do more damage than these fall.Equity values cut in half or more mostly and then inflation gutting bond portfolio's.
    When that happens is going to get costly to borrow.
    Once im full allocated im going to leave this thread mostly.Iv got a lot of things in life to enjoy and get on with and it will then really just be the odd visit.
     
  2. Agree
    Tdog reacted to Hardhat in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    I'm buying everything to hold for 7-8 years. The original thesis of this thread was that something like this would happen eventually, whether caused by a black swan or not. A period of financial dislocation would follow, and after that inflation caused in part by CBs printing money, and also commodity demands, perhaps topping out around 2027 - 28.
    I don't see that anything has changed really, despite all the noise on here and elsewhere. This is a good time to buy certain stocks, esp cheap commods, if you believe in the general thesis of the reflation cycle ahead.
    Personally I'm fully positioned in reflation stocks and will be adding more ladders as and when funds become available over the next few years, at least. I'm currently down quite a bit on certain stocks, but we expected this.
    This is the time to keep a cool head and stick to the plan. The foundations of this thread, which we have all been discussing for the past few years, remain sound, and if anything are being proven right.
  3. Agree
    Tdog reacted to One percent in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Well, apart from the uk. It’s business as usual, farming the population here.  
  4. Agree
    Tdog reacted to montecristo in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Damn.  I'm for Thailand also at Easter, but bought flight in the New Year  Hoping airlines offers full refund so I can re-book for the same dates.
  5. Agree
    Tdog reacted to Happy Renting in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Well their Ladyboys still have to make a living.
  6. Agree
    Tdog reacted to Van Lady in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    I like your sarcasm. To be honest I’m not particularly empathetic towards a lot of people either. I won’t be volunteering to help in my local community as this crisis unfolds. I’m as always focusing on looking after myself and my two grown up kids. It’s basic human nature really.
  7. Lol
    Tdog reacted to Van Lady in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Excellent. You post that you have plenty of spare time. When the NHS is overwhelmed in the not too distant future due to the current virus and begging for volunteers you’ll have an ideal opportunity to walk the talk!
  8. Agree
    Tdog reacted to MrPin in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Nobody cares about anyone else here. It's called democracy.
  9. Lol
    Tdog reacted to Covid19 and life to go in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Gotta give it to them, it's a point I didn't win!
    We could be the pre-card when Josh fights Fury, if I've not killed them both by then.  If you want to arrange it look me up in the yellow pages.
     
  10. Lol
    Tdog reacted to Battenberg in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Come back and post when you’ve got one of them singing “Just one Cornetto”.
  11. Lol
    Tdog reacted to Starsend in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Fucking A. I'm gonna smash Aldi up, been itching to do that for years.
  12. Lol
    Tdog reacted to Green Devil in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Don't forget that's Hospitalised cases. The real figure is x20. So 3 mill. 
  13. Lol
    Tdog reacted to choochoo in Pandemic coming? - Coronavirus Mar/Apr 2020 (Part 2)   
    Well I will let you know. Now back home after being there Tuesday and Wednesday. Day consisted of
    Train Bristol to Cheltenham
    Bus station to course
    6hrs drinking and gambling with 60,000 others
    Bus to train station
    Train to Bristol
    Not feeling great, but currently assume it's the lack of sleep and booze and fags
     
  14. Lol
  15. Agree
    Tdog reacted to 5min OCD speculator in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Mugabe didn't enrich the people he enriched himself and his cronies, he learnt from dem Yankee bankers!! 
    Zimbabwe used to be the 'bread basket' of Africa......he not only destroyed his own country, he destroyed a continent....
    yes we should have had a 'recession' in 2008 but again the cronies bailed out THEIR mates.....
     

  16. Informative
    Tdog reacted to Bricks & Mortar in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    If we consider the thread as a whole, I'd say most here would be against an FTSE tracker. 
    No-one is certain exactly where we are on the roadmap right now.  Many are thinking we're in the midst of the deflationary collapse event we've all been talking about for a few years now.  If we're not, then we're thinking the Fed will put some printed cash under this, only for the markets to rise a bit, and we get our really big deflationary collapse at some point down the line.
    Either way - there's a lot of predictions on these pages about how things work out, and most agree that many of the stocks that have been doing well, aren't going to be doing well going forward.  Meanwhile, there are stocks that haven't been doing well, but will do much better on the other side of the collapse.
    You saw the budget earlier in the week.  It's all about railways, roads, houses, hospitals and schools.  It's gonna be government spending on those sorts of things.  But it's also going to lead to inflation, and eventually higher interest rates, which will hurt some companies - ones with debts or with high material costs.
    The stocks we've been talking about are big oil companies, steel makers, agricultural supplies, fertiliser, gold miners, silver miners, bus companies - heavy industry with lots of capital already invested.  The thread seems generally agreed these will do well after the deflationary collapse, once the really big money printing starts.
    But the skill, luck, risk, gamble, is deciding for yourself when the right moment is to buy something.  We may well not have finished going down yet.  And Coronavirus is a definite curveball that no-one planned for and is likely to affect our roadmap in unexpected ways.
  17. Agree
    Tdog reacted to SillyBilly in Why dont we give a fuck about the FTSE crashing?   
    I've "lost" a shed load this past couple of weeks and am absolutely delighted. Given I'm in my 30s I see it as very much in my long term interest for the whole deck of cards to come crashing down, even if it wipes me out in the short term. Ground zero seems perfectly alright to me. I will back myself to "earn" (and there is a novel word) again. Those that will be worried are those that ought to be, probably because they never earned much of their wealth in the first place. The only disappointing thing for me will be if SE house prices continue on in fairy land while the whole world burns around them. It wouldn't surprise me at this stage as stopped praying to that false prophet back in the last false dawn of 2015. Hope is a dangerous thing.
     
     
  18. Agree
    Tdog reacted to Libspero in Why dont we give a fuck about the FTSE crashing?   
    That's what I love about this forum..   where else do people compete for the title of who has lost the most 
    Proper contrary bunch to a man (/woman) 
  19. Lol
    Tdog reacted to Cosmic Apple in Why dont we give a fuck about the FTSE crashing?   
    A house innit.
  20. Lol
    Tdog reacted to 5min OCD speculator in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    @panda are you female? I'm paying good money for women and drugs at the mo? 
  21. Agree
    Tdog reacted to UnconventionalWisdom in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Everywhere is fucked... collution by the central banks have ensured that.
  22. Agree
    Tdog reacted to SillyBilly in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Yes, I've made several more investments since and heavily down on all of them. £10k down in Shell from my first buy in alone. If you want advice on how to "lose" tens of thousands in a couple of weeks PM me . 
    I think these will be stellar investments that I will hold for a long time, lets see where we are even 6-12 months from now. The divi yields on these shares are very attractive. My only disappointment is perhaps shooting my load a little too early... I am looking to free up some more cash next month so now we're at this level hoping we hold down a little longer so I can buy more.
  23. Agree
    Tdog reacted to UnconventionalWisdom in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Everyone is trying to trash their currency. It's like a massive game of chicken. 
    Trump is going on about Germany having an advantage because of their negative IRs. We are living in a backwards world where they don't care about the future or providing a stable economy. Just trying to get through their term without the economy imploding. Corona virus may have highlighted how fragile the economy is and the buck may just stop here.
  24. Agree
  25. Agree
    Tdog reacted to SillyBilly in Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)   
    Too true. Once you've bought, ignore all the noise and get on with your life. Obsessing over the intra-day or week is a recipe for a) making bad decisions and b) having a short life.