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jamtomorrow

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  1. New installment up on Surplus Energy: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/ ... complete with this zinger on the absurd times we're living through: Had Daniel Defoe’s Robinson Crusoe, shipwrecked on his desert island, only known about classical economics, he wouldn’t have wasted his efforts finding water, food, firewood and shelter, but would instead have spent his time accumulating bits of coloured paper. Indeed, had computers existed in 1719, he wouldn’t even have needed the paper.
  2. All asset classes selling off, DXY jumping up ... world woke up this morning and decided it wants/needs dollars?
  3. Lyn Alden and Hugh Hendry going at it hammer & tong over monetary easing vs fiscal stimulus. Cracking thread:
  4. Finally found time to watch this. That was a good interview, really probed the most important questions. 4 takeaways for me: 1. PM lows in the bust. Was interesting to hear David's response to this question. The idea that metal markets respond fastest to inflation expectations makes sense - we definitely saw some of that in March. Solidifies my intention to HODL physical thru the bust. 2. Industrials. The last time industrials had a decade (the 70s), "tech" was in its infancy. Which got me thinking: are there some companies we regard as "tech" (today), but which might turn out to be
  5. Interesting thesis here on China either positioning or actively seeking to precipitate just such a dollar crisis: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/china-is-killing-the-dollar (And thus explain their apparent commodity stockpiling) Makes sense geopolitically - their mountain of UST and USD must be starting to look like a liability when considered in the context of what we here expect Fed and USG to do over next decade, and with Don Trumpio rattling the sabres it might be the most effective form of warfare available to the Chinese. Long article, so I'll just p
  6. As far as I'm concerned, DB has always made it clear that major players will go to the wall according to his roadmap, even in reflation sectors. That's the part I (personally) find hardest - having enough time/energy to do the research I need to do to achieve sufficient diversification in each sector. Not happy on that score, yet. Or @Harley, by "navigate 2021", are you referring to system survival (vs collapse)?
  7. No need to convince me. Power systems is a lovely business, well diversified and perfectly positioned to do well if/when a military-industrial reflation really gets going (especially when Governments realise they're in an EROEI race). Aero, not so sure. Recovery in civil aviation is hard to predict. We may never again return to previous levels of international travel because - like WFH - Covid has merely accelerated change that was already underway. What I really want to know: what would be fair value for RR if you zeroed out the civil aero business?
  8. Not just me then. Got various jobs I want to get done on the house before the reflation really get going, but trades are just stupid busy. Planning to leave it until spring, see if things have calmed down a bit
  9. Given this is a macro thread, I'm constantly surprised by the amount of discussion around what I would consider "trading" (from a macro perspective). Like: in the time it's taken just to fill my oil/telco ladders, several on here have traded in *and* back out of the jump in silver miners. I see that as trading a macro turn, as opposed to investing a macro trend, but then I'm *definitely* more tortoise rather than hare.
  10. Huge test for Cummings too. If we are indeed heading towards a period of fiscally-driven industrial growth, UK will need to be prepared to exercise muscular sovereignty over technology and industrial assets like ARM. Worrying signs the Government don't understand what they need to do with ARM. Read an article yesterday (I'll post the link when I find it) where a Government minister was commenting off the record about not intervening because it might jeopardise future FDI - as though it's still 2005 and Blair is Prime Minister and the globalisation merry-go-round is in full swing. Unb
  11. So something I plan to read up on this weekend is cryptodollars. What piqued my interest is this tweet from Nic Carter: He's a generally interesting follow for all things crypto, and not usually prone to melodramatics - if he calls something out, it's usually worth a look. (That said, I try not to dive in on every new thing in the crypto space, mainly because there's always so much that's new - you could easily go mad trying to keep on top of it) But Decentralized Finance is getting very interesting IMO, with many of the trappings of institutionally-underwritten monetary sy
  12. Ten years from now, a tin of spam a day will mark you out as one of the elite
  13. Blimey @Loki, that's quite some timing there. Less than 24h later and Hindenberg dropped their expose/hatchet-job* (* delete as appropriate per your preferred conspiracy) https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/ Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America (I won't paste anything other than the title, since this one has litigation written all over it)
  14. F***in ell. So are they allowed to buy out their own bonds for peanuts (relative to inflated FCF) later in the cycle if/when yields top out? Very happy to be in on the equity side of this racket if so!!!
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