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Hopeful

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Hopeful last won the day on May 16

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  1. OK, you've explained :-) If vaccination is made a pre-requisite for resuming the last 20 years of life in the style that I'd planned, and I haven't thought of a better alternative life, I might need to.
  2. But that would be on top of the normal years deaths Don't want to tell you what to do :-), but if you expand the post I linked in my post there were some numbers in that based upon 75 year olds, deaths and hospitalisations using UK data. Again a worse case scenario. Personally, I think this is all about the NHS and how crowded hospitals (and deaths) play out in the age of click bait media. We might be relaxed about overcrowded ICU wards and deaths but does the loo-roll buying public have the stomach for it in reality?
  3. But, given the death percentages and the numbers I tallied up, wouldn't that even cause concern for our current hospital capacity? You may have said that we should have prepared sufficient ICU capacity (someone commented that to me) and I'd agree (but I don't know if we could have done), I also think we could have had a much better stab at preventative health, such as a focus on obesity, vit d [if Vit D makes the difference some reports suggest), there is loads we could have done in the 6 months that summer gave us, such as we could have prepared the country to look after the vulnerable i
  4. i confess that I was suprised you gave me a rep We differ in that I think it hasn't gone. I can't see why it would have done. I might be blind to why. But if we take the CDC numbers above and work on per 100,000. I'm doing this quickly so might make a gaff ... That's 3 + 20 + 500 + 6400 = 6943 mortalities / 100,000. The following won't happen, but as a starting point, if the CDC numbers apply to the UK (population ~76.8 million) and if the virus rips through and everyone catches it this winter, that's ~4.4 milllion UK deaths most of which will require hospitalisation first. The
  5. They think the rules will keep hospitals 'empty-ish' and consequently, maintain law and order, and so ensure the public's view of both being safe in Tory hands (or the party holding the reins). I think that is their purpose.
  6. ....responding to the virus. Our response may swing back the other way, take a new turn, but in time to come it will all be part of the response, no?
  7. Bevahioural changes in response to the arrival of a new parasite or virus wouldn't be a novel evolutionary response by humans.
  8. Edited to add Rather than read my ramblings, this isn't bad https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/first-and-second-waves-of-coronavirus The second wave need not be due to the virus mutating a way that allows it to bypass host population immunity. Seasonaity affects the virus and host behaviour in many ways, more than I'm probably going to describe. Outdoors, causes the virus to persist for less time, it decays away. Indoors is a more protective environment. People move indoors as the weather becomes unpleasant and day-length shortens.
  9. Why would you be barking mad to take the vaccine? (I'm assuming it's safe)
  10. I think the Unis did it to cover the accommodation fees for contracted accommodation. Scandalous. But, if the students had been told to stay home would there not have been vocal protestations along the lines "Why are we stopping students going back to Uni and enjoying themeslves when catching the virus is nothing to them" ?
  11. When was the last time we had a novel virus that went around the world? What were the measures put in place for SARS in the counrties it occurred, which because of it's biology was also easier to eradicate
  12. If you have followed my posts you will know that I set out a different strategy from the outset.
  13. That's the problem. Rightly or wrongly I get frustrated with people that present the data for August and either say it's 'gone' or imply that August's data is what we should base our future actions/plans upon. We just don't know. If SarsCov2 is seasonal we should take advantage of August and plan for it to ramp up. But, we should also balance the effects we take against the economic impact, it's no point protecting the population now if in 5 years' time we're all eating each other. SarsCov2 is nasty in the way it works and I don't want to catch it, but I probably will in the ne
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