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  1. Happy Renting

    THE REMAIN TRAP

    [Edited] There is a danger of a second Referendum where Remain is made a Referenduman option, and the Leave vote split between two options, Deal or no Deal options. Unless transferable votes are used (or even if), even a minority of Remainers could win a second Referendum. This would tie the Government's hands to negotiate to Remain at any cost. This would be disastrous for the UK. Article 50 dictates that we leave on 29 March 2019. As this is an Article of a Treaty, it can only be set aside with the unanimous consent of all EU members at the highest level. It would only take one EU member to obstruct this to place the UK in an impossible position. If we petitioned to Remain, or extend time to negotiate a better deal, I am absoloutely certain that the EU would exploit this to the UK's extreme disadvantage. In particular, we would be obliged to join the Euro, as all new EU member states already are. Secondly, we would lose our EU rebate, which expires in 2021 anyway. It would not be renewed and we would probably be forced to increase our EU contributions on top of that. Additionally, pressure could be exerted by Ireland and Spain relating to the borders or status of NI and Gibraltar. The UK's nuclear deterrent could come under the control of an EU-wide military force, and so we could lose overall control of our deterrent. This would conflict with NATO obligations and could paralyze our military options. I think we still have vetos on certain other EU policies, which we would be forced to surrender. I hear no politicians or journalists telling us this. We may be sleepwalking into a disaster. The one hope is that with our current political chaos, it will be impossible to organse a second Referendum in time to halt our Leaving. Ironically, the longer the disasterous Treason May hangs on, the less likely a Second Referendum to Remain will take place. Our best hope now is we stay with this useless crone and grit our teeth for Leaving without a deal - a 'Hard Brexit'. The opportunity for a good deal has been wasted thorugh her utter incompetence. I see little prospect of the EU improving the terms for our Leaving. There is little incentive for them to do so. After Leaving, Article 49 would define the process for rejoining and the implications (like joining the Euro) would have to be made clearer to the public. TLDR; We are either badly fucked, or really totally fucked.