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Multi layered question


King Penda

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Where do people see house prices going if the yanks cut rates and Europe follows then us .it’s one thing the south east geting slaughtered in a recession but the problem is will we actualy ever get the 1930s style one we have been expecting for a decade .further more how far will the London ripple travel up north there’s got to be a lot of pent up demand that might just stabilise houses say in the 100k -130k bracket particularly when you have tools like a ten year fix at such low levels that could well get lower

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sancho panza
13 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Where do people see house prices going if the yanks cut rates and Europe follows then us .

Down.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/23/ultra-low-mortgage-rates-no-relief-as-home-sales-fall/

The relentlessness of falling home sales is starting to baffle the real estate industry that had expected plunging mortgage rates to fire up sales: Across the US, sales of “existing homes” (previously owned single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops) in June dropped 2.2% from June last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million homes, according to the National Association of Realtors. It was the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines (data via YCharts):

US-Existing-home-sales-YOY-2019-06.png

“Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs and a record high net worth in the country,” lamented NAR’s report.

And the plunge in mortgage rates from the November high has been spectacular. The Fed has hiked rates one more time in December and so far has not cut rates. But yields across the curve have been dropping in anticipation of a veritable Niagara Falls of rate cuts and whatnot.

After years of price increases, home prices together have moved up the ladder, including the lower end that is now priced where mid-range used to be a few years ago, and there is no more “low end” in many markets, and the new low end has moved out of range for many buyers. High prices kill demand. And low mortgage rates, after years of low mortgage rates, are having only a limited effect on sales volume.

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Long term up, up and up. Short term don't care anymore.

My belief is we will see up's and downs far more regionally based, US by state/cities etc. UK London down, the rest up. It's a completely different world since 07 and even more so in the last few years.

Not just a ten year fix but a two year fix at 1.3%

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2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Where do people see house prices going if the yanks cut rates and Europe follows then us .it’s one thing the south east geting slaughtered in a recession but the problem is will we actualy ever get the 1930s style one we have been expecting for a decade .further more how far will the London ripple travel up north there’s got to be a lot of pent up demand that might just stabilise houses say in the 100k -130k bracket particularly when you have tools like a ten year fix at such low levels that could well get lower

Down, still.

MMR ties house sales to ~4x local median income.

IR, by themsevles, do not affect house prices.

The amount of debt does.

 

 

 

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The problems of 2002->2008 were caused by debt.

They can onyl be fixed by wage inflation, ahead of house prices.

Lowering IRs and inflating asse prices will not help.

Taxing all property renterism, in the economic sense, will help, a lot.

Theres this gormless piece from TE:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/07/11/should-egalitarians-fear-low-interest-rates

Mainly bollocks but the bit about having in demand skills in correct.

Basically, if you are in any sector/industry where there is skill/labour shortage then the cost of fixing that shortage has gone up as much as housing.

This is how housing/wages ill corrrect - very high wage inflation for skills in short supply.

Sadly government interfere too much with wages - bring in low skilled migrants, not allowing older, less skilled to be sacked

Ive stopped quietly nodding to people going o about skill shortages.

My response is - Set wages to nice 4 bedroom house /4. Or move offices to where the skills are. Or go out of business.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Down.

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/07/23/ultra-low-mortgage-rates-no-relief-as-home-sales-fall/

The relentlessness of falling home sales is starting to baffle the real estate industry that had expected plunging mortgage rates to fire up sales: Across the US, sales of “existing homes” (previously owned single-family houses, townhouses, condos, and co-ops) in June dropped 2.2% from June last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.27 million homes, according to the National Association of Realtors. It was the 16th month in a row of year-over-year declines (data via YCharts):

US-Existing-home-sales-YOY-2019-06.png

“Home sales are running at a pace similar to 2015 levels – even with exceptionally low mortgage rates, a record number of jobs and a record high net worth in the country,” lamented NAR’s report.

And the plunge in mortgage rates from the November high has been spectacular. The Fed has hiked rates one more time in December and so far has not cut rates. But yields across the curve have been dropping in anticipation of a veritable Niagara Falls of rate cuts and whatnot.

After years of price increases, home prices together have moved up the ladder, including the lower end that is now priced where mid-range used to be a few years ago, and there is no more “low end” in many markets, and the new low end has moved out of range for many buyers. High prices kill demand. And low mortgage rates, after years of low mortgage rates, are having only a limited effect on sales volume.

Wages wages wages wages.

Biege books poitns to large shortfalls.

US emploeyrs have only one solutoin - increase wages. A lot.

There no swarms of employable migrants turning up o the US now.

Factor in the USs seeing a much higher fall off of the work force than the UK, their boomer bulge being a lot bigger than the UKs.

Mix in ~5% of the working population being hooked on hillbilly heroin.

And stir in the fact that job creation has not been evenly spread.

US housing as a means of middle class wealth creation has gone. Not totally, but its been significantly reduced.

Want to sell more houses?

Lower the price. A lot.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Like Japan?

Japan has a massive problem with an ageing population and bad birth rate they are importing 30 year old baby’s into this country at a huge rate 

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18 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Down, still.

MMR ties house sales to ~4x local median income.

IR, by themsevles, do not affect house prices.

The amount of debt does.

 

 

 

Which are going down?

From the same article -

image.png.294e812bbba62e4a0f064526ee5fdc2f.png

image.png.f68ed3a3da623036a0ad8ad78ef38a8f.png

image.png.527128160aeb868da003676a312c48ec.png

 

 

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12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The problems of 2002->2008 were caused by debt.

They can onyl be fixed by wage inflation, ahead of house prices.

Lowering IRs and inflating asse prices will not help.

Taxing all property renterism, in the economic sense, will help, a lot.

Theres this gormless piece from TE:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/07/11/should-egalitarians-fear-low-interest-rates

Mainly bollocks but the bit about having in demand skills in correct.

Basically, if you are in any sector/industry where there is skill/labour shortage then the cost of fixing that shortage has gone up as much as housing.

This is how housing/wages ill corrrect - very high wage inflation for skills in short supply.

Sadly government interfere too much with wages - bring in low skilled migrants, not allowing older, less skilled to be sacked

Ive stopped quietly nodding to people going o about skill shortages.

My response is - Set wages to nice 4 bedroom house /4. Or move offices to where the skills are. Or go out of business.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wages increases for in demand jobs I understand but very few people in the uk have a skill that is indespensable

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1 minute ago, A_P said:

Which are going down?

From the same article -

image.png.294e812bbba62e4a0f064526ee5fdc2f.png

image.png.f68ed3a3da623036a0ad8ad78ef38a8f.png

image.png.527128160aeb868da003676a312c48ec.png

 

 

So that’s my point I’m on about 29k a year so 4 times that is just under 120k you can get a nice house for that around here stoke might get a hit but I doubt it’s going to be the haircut London’s going to take

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11 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

So that’s my point I’m on about 29k a year so 4 times that is just under 120k you can get a nice house for that around here stoke might get a hit but I doubt it’s going to be the haircut London’s going to take

Sounds like a good wage for the area. Thing is it might not get hit, we will only know until after the fact. Mitigate some of the risk where possible so you can ride it out and/or not be so reliant and dependent on the local economy.

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19 minutes ago, A_P said:

Sounds like a good wage for the area. Thing is it might not get hit, we will only know until after the fact. Mitigate some of the risk where possible so you can ride it out and/or not be so reliant and dependent on the local economy.

I’m a carer but im

under no illusions that I’m on above avarage wages for my area the fact I do overtime is irrelivent I can work

has much has I want there’s not been one night in the last 3 years that I can’t get it I’ve just not got to throw a childish strop with managment which is fucking hard at times trust me my expertise is low paid jobs if you can do care or order pick your never going to be out of work around here and most people are on minimum wage around here and that’s only going up new builds will be slaughtered because they are daft prices even here but your x council semi with a big garden I realy doubt they will get hit much if I’m honest

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Agent ZigZag

In my opinion the housing sell off will largely be a North/South issue. I consider the current government will deliver Brexit and the North will geographically be on the right side of the world for increased trade away from Europe to the Americas and the rest of world for the first time in nearly 50 years. In my opinion listening to Boris Johnson maiden speech in parliament there appears to be a 1930s style infrastructure spend in the pipe and an area none better to do this will be in a golden triangle from the Birmingham in the South to Leeds in the North and to our ports to the east and west. The south is too expensive whilst  whilst the North is ripe for starting from a blank and very cheap canvas. In the 1970s/80s and early nineties Northern lads and lasses migrated south in search of work. I can see a role reversal coming on. Better wages in relation to housing costs, better quality of life, a better feeling of job security could very well be coming   up the MI and M6.

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1 hour ago, A_P said:

Which are going down?

From the same article -

image.png.294e812bbba62e4a0f064526ee5fdc2f.png

image.png.f68ed3a3da623036a0ad8ad78ef38a8f.png

image.png.527128160aeb868da003676a312c48ec.png

 

 

So how’s debt calculated is it things like student debt has well things could get interesting in the future 

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27 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

In my opinion the housing sell off will largely be a North/South issue. I consider the current government will deliver Brexit and the North will geographically be on the right side of the world for increased trade away from Europe to the Americas and the rest of world for the first time in nearly 50 years. In my opinion listening to Boris Johnson maiden speech in parliament there appears to be a 1930s style infrastructure spend in the pipe and an area none better to do this will be in a golden triangle from the Birmingham in the South to Leeds in the North and to our ports to the east and west. The south is too expensive whilst  whilst the North is ripe for starting from a blank and very cheap canvas. In the 1970s/80s and early nineties Northern lads and lasses migrated south in search of work. I can see a role reversal coming on. Better wages in relation to housing costs, better quality of life, a better feeling of job security could very well be coming   up the MI and M6.

DT made similar speeches regarding infrastructure, roads, brides and airports etc. Whats been achieved on that front (genuine question)? Great if we see it on in England but for now Ill just see it as a good speech from BJ and take it with a pinch of salt.

Reverse is already happening. Look at Manchester for starters. I hear plenty of English (and foreign) accents here in NI.

15 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

So how’s debt calculated is it things like student debt has well things could get interesting in the future 

No idea  tbh, nor do I really care xD.

58 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

I’m a carer but im

under no illusions that I’m on above avarage wages for my area the fact I do overtime is irrelivent I can work

has much has I want there’s not been one night in the last 3 years that I can’t get it I’ve just not got to throw a childish strop with managment which is fucking hard at times trust me my expertise is low paid jobs if you can do care or order pick your never going to be out of work around here and most people are on minimum wage around here and that’s only going up new builds will be slaughtered because they are daft prices even here but your x council semi with a big garden I realy doubt they will get hit much if I’m honest

You'll always have work and opportunities given your industry. 

Personally I can't see new builds getting slaughtered anymore than other house given the incentives and props. But it is funny to see how many newer builds have for sale signs. I think once the new smell wares off the house it isn't quite as rosey for those buyers.

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Average house prices in England and Wales: Down when priced in USD. Sideways when priced in GBP and adjusted for inflation.  
But averages, regional variance will be critical.

And I don't think regional will be easy as North/South.  Areas in both will hold up with foreign investment with a GBP decline and areas in the both be effected more by local population demographics than national.   

So locally, YMMV..

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38 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

In my opinion the housing sell off will largely be a North/South issue. I consider the current government will deliver Brexit and the North will geographically be on the right side of the world for increased trade away from Europe to the Americas and the rest of world for the first time in nearly 50 years. In my opinion listening to Boris Johnson maiden speech in parliament there appears to be a 1930s style infrastructure spend in the pipe and an area none better to do this will be in a golden triangle from the Birmingham in the South to Leeds in the North and to our ports to the east and west. The south is too expensive whilst  whilst the North is ripe for starting from a blank and very cheap canvas. In the 1970s/80s and early nineties Northern lads and lasses migrated south in search of work. I can see a role reversal coming on. Better wages in relation to housing costs, better quality of life, a better feeling of job security could very well be coming   up the MI and M6.

I would agree to a certain extent even an uneducated guy can earn 50-60 k at jcb with overtime they just need the balls to risk moveing if you don’t mind commuting from stoke which is 30-40 mins tops and house prices will drop by 40 percent from rocester and uttoxeter 

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3 hours ago, stokiescum said:

Wages increases for in demand jobs I understand but very few people in the uk have a skill that is indespensable

Any where theres a shortage to recruit.

Doesnt have to be skilled.

Big wakeup call.

 

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12 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Any where theres a shortage to recruit.

Doesnt have to be skilled.

Big wakeup call.

 

Hence my 6 % pay rise on top of the 1 % I had 3 months ago they realised that was a big mystake they need to hit the long term unemployed very hard I’m in an unskilled job but Ben is simply pays to much on avarage we now have agency travelling from Wolverhampton to where I work to fill the gaps I suspect back Handers has another agency guy from a local area showed us an email

about helping the new guys it even said one guy struggled with English and was a bit slow ffs

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1 minute ago, stokiescum said:

Hence my 6 % pay rise on top of the 1 % I had 3 months ago they realised that was a big mystake 

Indeed.

I know of towns where its ~60% OAPs.

Theyll be paying thru the nose for any home help.

 

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3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Indeed.

I know of towns where its ~60% OAPs.

Theyll be paying thru the nose for any home help.

 

It will go to tender and the care firm

that wins will get it I refused to travel more than 15 miles from my home when the community care firm I worked for got work in a different area ie Staffordshire moorlands Staffordshire east I said sack me lol I do 60 hours a week you will need2 Carer’s to cover me 

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