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Political betting thread.......


sancho panza
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sancho panza

Some known punters on here eg @Democorruptcy @Bricks & Mortar

Setting up a thread for discussion of betting value.Personally,I do this to make money,so leave my emotion at the door.I never normally bet until the event is close by but reasearch starts well ahead.

UK

GE inbound this year if betfair is right

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836

For me the value punts at the moment are 

Most seats at next GE Tories at 1.47

Lay 0 Brexit party seats at 1.45

USA

At the moment,my money says Trump reelected especially if up against either Biden or Warren.

Unsure who'll get the nod for the Dems though.Looks a weakish field.

2.16 for him currently,but a long way to go.

 

 

All ideas and views welcomed.

 

 

 

 

 

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sancho panza
14 minutes ago, Durabo said:

If the economy tanks before the election in the US, I can't see Trump being re-elected

It'll make it more difficult but the Dems stillneed a viable challenger.And thats the basis of my current view.No polling as yet but the US pres was a £400mn market last time round.

Biden-has historic problems eg dropping himself in it,gaffs,looks tired,compromise candidate

Warren-will get called Pocahontas all the way through

Buttigieg/Gillibrand/Gabbard/Harris-one of whom would be the best Dem chance imho.

Sanders-backed Clinton in 2016 ...big mistake.

 

20 minutes ago, Tdog said:

If betting for an election in 2019, then accumulator with Change UK to  have no MP's by 2020 will be a certainty at 1/4 should there be an election.
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/change-uk-to-have-no-members-of-parliament-by-2020

To be fair,once th election is called,that is a cracking punt.One of those back up the truck moments.

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sancho panza

Next labour leader looks difficult once Corbyn is gone given how he's lifted the member ship and driven out moderate members to LD's.

Lisa Nandy at 33-1 looks a possbile if she runs.Degree of emotional intelligence from what Ive seen of her

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader

Edited by sancho panza
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Love it, great thread.

Would punt on Boris being gone before end of 2019. I expect Brexit will take him out one way or another.

My gut tells me Corbyn won't make PM though. Next PM field is wide open IMO. The way it was when we got May. Lib Dems haven't got a hope. It will most likely be a Tory character leading a coalition. I think JRM may also be too tainted by Brexit. Priti Patel too unpopular. Sajid?

Sajid is 10/1 next Tory leader on Bet365

Edited by Hardhat
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11 hours ago, Durabo said:

If the economy tanks before the election in the US, I can't see Trump being re-elected

If the US economy tanks, could you see most of the Dem candidates being voted for?

US voters who care about the economy will not vote for most of the Dem candidates.

The Dem voters for the like of Ilan etc do not care about the economy.

Even Dems who care about the economy will probably vote Trump as thers no one else to vote for.

Trump did not win the election.

The Reps and Dem lost it.

 

 

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The traditional pattern is Republican Presidency > Recession > Democratic presidency. It's similar in the UK too.

I think the UK is suffering from a decade + of weak political leadership, and the US is going through the same. I think that is perfectly demonstrated by the inability of anyone to effectively organise against Trump - I get the points of you and SP. I would argue however that an economic collapse would still give a boost to Trumps' opponents - it would be a definite stick to beat him with considering his bigging up of the stock market and economy under his leadership.

An interesting punt in the UK would be on the number of Green MPs. The environment is becoming an increasingly important issue for a lot of people. They did really well in the EU elections, but that doesn't always translate well to a GE

Edited by Durabo
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I think the UK is ripe for a new centrist party - I don't see the Lib Dems filling that role, nor the Greens to be honest. I'm intrigued to see what Rory Stewart and David Gauke get up to in the next few months.

Edited by Durabo
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sancho panza
14 hours ago, Tdog said:

In 2015 i had a bet on the Lib Dems to get under 10 MPs' they got 8, this time out a bet of over 40MPs is viable. They seem to be the winners out of all this.

Agreed.voters have broken tribal voting patterns on both Remain and Brexit sides.LD's have been the big winners.If all they do is destroy Labours vote share-seems a certainty-then they'll have a disruptive influence if nothing else.

15 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Love it, great thread.

Would punt on Boris being gone before end of 2019. I expect Brexit will take him out one way or another.

My gut tells me Corbyn won't make PM though. Next PM field is wide open IMO. The way it was when we got May. Lib Dems haven't got a hope. It will most likely be a Tory character leading a coalition. I think JRM may also be too tainted by Brexit. Priti Patel too unpopular. Sajid?

Sajid is 10/1 next Tory leader on Bet365

I think Corbyn was only competitive because May made him look viable and vice versa.WHichever lsot their spot first would leave the other looking a lame duck.

Personally,I see BJ being around a while.I note a lot of Brexit party leaning Tories I know,absolutely love him.particualrly if he gets no deal through.

At the mo,it's all about the swing marginals and about 20% of the voters therein who both vote and switch votes.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, spygirl said:

If the US economy tanks, could you see most of the Dem candidates being voted for?

US voters who care about the economy will not vote for most of the Dem candidates.

The Dem voters for the like of Ilan etc do not care about the economy.

Even Dems who care about the economy will probably vote Trump as thers no one else to vote for.

Trump did not win the election.

The Reps and Dem lost it.

 

 

Clinton lost to one of the most underfunded/inexperienced political candidates the USA has ever seen.Took some doing.

In the key swing states(particualrly MidWest/Florida) I'll be watching the polling.

At the mo,there doesn't appear to be a viable Dem candidate.They need to lose 20 of the runners at least

4 hours ago, Durabo said:

The traditional pattern is Republican Presidency > Recession > Democratic presidency. It's similar in the UK too.

I think the UK is suffering from a decade + of weak political leadership, and the US is going through the same. I think that is perfectly demonstrated by the inability of anyone to effectively organise against Trump - I get the points of you and SP. I would argue however that an economic collapse would still give a boost to Trumps' opponents - it would be a definite stick to beat him with considering his bigging up of the stock market and economy under his leadership.

An interesting punt in the UK would be on the number of Green MPs. The environment is becoming an increasingly important issue for a lot of people. They did really well in the EU elections, but that doesn't always translate well to a GE

Reagan won after a Dem recession back in 1980.

The Fed tends to run a 'neutralise the economy' monetary policy in election years,so expect plenty QE next year.

Trump is quite Machiavellian and I could see him taking creidt for smashing Wall St if the stock market collapsed.His odds are pretty good for where we are in the election cyle.

Agreed on the Greens.Personally,I think our electoral system is a disgrace creating a huge democratic deficit.Ukip polled four million votes last time and got 1 seat .Greesn and LD's have to work extra hard.

That shift away from Tories and labour is ongoing but I think it'll happen all of a sudden as it only takes  a marginal change in voting patterns for the seat distribution to be skewed hugely eg Blairs first win.Labour have lost moderate support and the Tories have destroyed their Brexit hard core's loyalty.

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sancho panza
3 hours ago, Tdog said:

I'd change that bet to number of LibDem MP's they'll be the big winners from Labours demise.

I also think the Tory party may struggle to get their voters to leave their houses as like you say they've been appalling for a decade, Boris has got the job when things have been destroyed beyond recognition.

Those who are 35+ on this website with decent jobs, families and a huge chunk of cash should be Tory voters ... but as the Tory party has intentionally priced them out of buying a reasonably priced house imho it is highly unlikely this block of people will vote for them.

I'll vote Brexit party if i can be bothered to get to the polling station, even if we leave on 31/10 without a deal.

You have nailed the structural problem the Tories have.I'm an ex UKIP voter,won't be voting next time as there's no party that really represents my beliefs(although I might vote Green to try and ave their deposit).HTB,FLS,ZIRP,QE etc have all shafted the working people of this country.

You won't get a better demonstration of your view than if you attend a Tory Consituency meeting.Full of old dears.Old dears tend to pick candidates for safe seats that fit their views of what should be in Parliament.Which explains possibly the Tories increasing inability to connect with working class voters to the levels that Major or thatcher did.

Labours problem is more nuanced.Corbyn has driven many would be labour voters to LD's and Greens.UKIP also picked up a huge chunk of Labour voters in it's heyday and from what I see when I talk to people,they've not gone back to Corbyn.

Edited by sancho panza
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4 hours ago, Tdog said:

I'd change that bet to number of LibDem MP's they'll be the big winners from Labours demise.

I also think the Tory party may struggle to get their voters to leave their houses as like you say they've been appalling for a decade, Boris has got the job when things have been destroyed beyond recognition.

Those who are 35+ on this website with decent jobs, families and a huge chunk of cash should be Tory voters ... but as the Tory party has intentionally priced them out of buying a reasonably priced house imho it is highly unlikely this block of people will vote for them.

I'll vote Brexit party if i can be bothered to get to the polling station, even if we leave on 31/10 without a deal.

I dont know where your market is but the HPI was from 2000->2004 where I iam.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Tdog said:

I'd change that bet to number of LibDem MP's they'll be the big winners from Labours demise.

I also think the Tory party may struggle to get their voters to leave their houses as like you say they've been appalling for a decade, Boris has got the job when things have been destroyed beyond recognition.

Those who are 35+ on this website with decent jobs, families and a huge chunk of cash should be Tory voters ... but as the Tory party has intentionally priced them out of buying a reasonably priced house imho it is highly unlikely this block of people will vote for them.

I'll vote Brexit party if i can be bothered to get to the polling station, even if we leave on 31/10 without a deal.

I would bet on LibDems MPs barely moving.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

You have nailed the structural problem the Tories have.I'm an ex UKIP voter,won't be voting next time as there's no party that really represents my beliefs(although I might vote Green to try and ave their deposit).HTB,FLS,ZIRP,QE etc have all shafted the working people of this country.

You won't get a better demonstration of your view than if you attend a Tory Consituency meeting.Full of old dears.Old dears tend to pick candidates for safe seats that fit their views of what should be in Parliament.Which explains possibly the Tories increasing inability to connect with working class voters to the levels that Major or thatcher did.

Labours problem is more nuanced.Corbyn has driven many would be labour voters to LD's and Greens.UKIP also picked up a huge chunk of Labour voters in it's heyday and from what I see when I talk to people,they've not gone back to Corbyn.

Nope.

Simple.

Cons will do well as Thstcher died in 2013 - waaaaay after 2010 GE and probaby too close to the w015 one to matter. 2017 ge was all about brexit n whatnot

A living Thstcher was a Labour recruitment tool - fatcher eill steal your milk, close the mines....

Cuntbin got a boost as he was new (to most voters).

Now, Labour have the drag of Blair nBrown living  to cope with. And Cuntbin whos managing to piss off everyone in hus mad ole marxist granddad manner, is olc n boring.

As far as LibDems go - Who?

They are lurching from non entity to non entity.

 

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Was speaking to the site team on one of our larger construction projects last week. We had a colourful discussion about Brexit. All of them from Yorkshire (mining towns mainly), all of them long standing labour voters (including their family members and friends). None of them willing to vote for Labour at the moment due to Brexit 'betrayal'. Some even prepared to hold their nose and vote Tory but I think most would vote Brexit Party or abstain. I totally get it.

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19 hours ago, Durabo said:

If the economy tanks before the election in the US, I can't see Trump being re-elected

Trump vote goes way beyond the economy, I think. It's a protest vote, and those live and die by different rules. For the same reasons I don't see Leave voters doing a u-turn if British economy tanks after Brexit.

If Trump gets de-elected, it's going to be thanks to higher democratic turnout, not because of his supporters changing sides.

Edited by kibuc
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Democorruptcy

Not pre-election betting but I've created a watchlist in my Shares ISA/SIPP for if the Tories win. I expect the currently troubled utilities to do better if comrade Corbyn is out of the picture.

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Bricks & Mortar
19 hours ago, Durabo said:

If the economy tanks before the election in the US, I can't see Trump being re-elected

I'd be interested to know if there's anywhere that offers odds on chance of US recession in 2020.  Believe market commentators typically go somewhere beween 25 and 50% - but they're all vested intrests.
My own estimation is much higher.  I think he's got a fair chance of getting away with it, especially if he can pin the cause on China collapsing, insolvent eurobanks, brexit or something else foreign and convenient... but then you'll get better odds on him once it happens - so no bets on Trump for me right now.
For dems I'm considering Warren and Yang, who manage to gain traction in a economic crisis.  Long shots, but I like the odds, especially on Yang.

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Orpington_Madness

I read on another site, that the further the combined Tory and Labour vote share gets below 60%, the more haywire the seat distribution gets, so could be some interesting results (and betting opportunities) locally at seat level. Same article also said that Labour have a rump of 150 seats in northern metropolitan areas and London that would need there vote share to fall to 14-15% before they seriously came under any threat.

Johnson's appointment has taken a chunk out of the poll ratings that The Brexit Party were previously achieving - it is probably fair to say that most of the remaining people voting for TBP are people that either don't like Johnson or could never bring themselves to vote Tory, as there are minimal policy differences now.

If there is an early election, I suspect tories will get most seats (but probably just short of a majority) on the basis that the revoke/remain brigade are unable to coalesce around any alternatives as yet. The longer it takes then there is more chance that some sort of revolutionary political event occurs, particularly if a no-deal Brexit causes problems. 

Also, we all know that the economic woes incoming are going to be blamed on Brexit, even if it is largely a side-show in that respect.

 

S

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Was speaking to the site team on one of our larger construction projects last week. We had a colourful discussion about Brexit. All of them from Yorkshire (mining towns mainly), all of them long standing labour voters (including their family members and friends). None of them willing to vote for Labour at the moment due to Brexit 'betrayal'. Some even prepared to hold their nose and vote Tory but I think most would vote Brexit Party or abstain. I totally get it.

Thatcher dying.

Labour being led by a very stupid Islington Marxist.

Should see the local FB groups. Towns have strong links to army.

Always going on about cuntbin n ira.

I reckon cuntbin is why labour lost control mbro council.

I think kabour are in hufe trouble in the north, losing white tribal voters at a rapid clip.

Combintion of cuntbun, ira n courting muzzers. 

I reckon labour could be hammered.

 

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I'd be interested to know if there's anywhere that offers odds on chance of US recession in 2020.  Believe market commentators typically go somewhere beween 25 and 50% - but they're all vested intrests.
My own estimation is much higher.  I think he's got a fair chance of getting away with it, especially if he can pin the cause on China collapsing, insolvent eurobanks, brexit or something else foreign and convenient... but then you'll get better odds on him once it happens - so no bets on Trump for me right now.
For dems I'm considering Warren and Yang, who manage to gain traction in a economic crisis.  Long shots, but I like the odds, especially on Yang.

GDP figures can be revised sometimes a year or two after being printed,so that bet is likely unavaialble.

For Dems,why yang?currently 20/1.I've not followed the process much,has he done well.I thought he was well out of it.

For the dems to have achance they need to produce a decent runner that's not Warren/Sanders/Biden imho

2 hours ago, Tdog said:

Money where your mouth is sunshine.

If i can get 10/1 i will put £50 on Lib Dems getting over 50 seats, which considering they won 12 last time is viable odds.

4/1 on BF.Difficult predicting seat tallies as you can fall short on a minor seat by 1% and shafts your whole bet.Also less constituancy polling available.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159424916

4 hours ago, kibuc said:

Trump vote goes way beyond the economy, I think. It's a protest vote, and those live and die by different rules. For the same reasons I don't see Leave voters doing a u-turn if British economy tanks after Brexit.

If Trump gets de-elected, it's going to be thanks to higher democratic turnout, not because of his supporters changing sides.

I think that'sa good line of argument right there.

A lot of Trump voters are more likely to not turn out than vote Dem.The Dems need someone who can inspire people to get out and vote.

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, Orpington_Madness said:

I read on another site, that the further the combined Tory and Labour vote share gets below 60%, the more haywire the seat distribution gets, so could be some interesting results (and betting opportunities) locally at seat level. Same article also said that Labour have a rump of 150 seats in northern metropolitan areas and London that would need there vote share to fall to 14-15% before they seriously came under any threat.

Johnson's appointment has taken a chunk out of the poll ratings that The Brexit Party were previously achieving - it is probably fair to say that most of the remaining people voting for TBP are people that either don't like Johnson or could never bring themselves to vote Tory, as there are minimal policy differences now.

If there is an early election, I suspect tories will get most seats (but probably just short of a majority) on the basis that the revoke/remain brigade are unable to coalesce around any alternatives as yet. The longer it takes then there is more chance that some sort of revolutionary political event occurs, particularly if a no-deal Brexit causes problems. 

Also, we all know that the economic woes incoming are going to be blamed on Brexit, even if it is largely a side-show in that respect.

 

FPTP is a big thorn in the betting on British Politics.I think times are looming where a party could get a majority in parliament with less than 30% of the vote which is entirely possible if LD's lift up,Lab drop and BP lift.

Only party I can see getting a maj at the mo is Tories.LD's might link up with Lab and have a coalition but Jezza on his own can't win over middle England

Agreed on the BP>I think they'll drop ehre as the tories return home and the 'NeverTories' remain outside looking in.

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Thatcher dying.

Labour being led by a very stupid Islington Marxist.

Should see the local FB groups. Towns have strong links to army.

Always going on about cuntbin n ira.

I reckon cuntbin is why labour lost control mbro council.

I think kabour are in hufe trouble in the north, losing white tribal voters at a rapid clip.

Combintion of cuntbun, ira n courting muzzers. 

I reckon labour could be hammered.

 

Entirely possible

You can lay labour maj for 18/1 which is what...a 5% return.Says it all.

Tories are 3.05 to lay.........

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311

If labour are still like they are now pre GE that's a safe 5% I reckon.

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Bricks & Mortar
32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

why yang?

His 3 main policies are:  $1000 a month for everyone, funded by a sales tax.  Medicare for all.  And reforming capitalism to be more human-centred.  He's well schooled in all of these and can present himself well.  I'm thinking its not just a recession they're facing, but deflationary collapse - and once they've all lost their retirement savings, and economists are recommending massive printing and spending - his message will resonate.  A lot depends on timing of the financial collapse, but at 20/1 for nomination, and 33/1 to win, I like the odds.  I feel Trump is now hurting his chances every time he gets up to talk up the economy.

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