Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

Michigan Pivot Counties.Trump wins 10 out of 11.Biden wins his one by 0.3%

Do the math as they say in the US.

Bay            Trump +11%

Calhoun     Trump +11%

Eaton          Trump +1%

Gogebic     Trump +12%

Isabella       Trump +3%

Lake           Trump +26%

Macomb     Trump +8%

Manistee   Trump +15%

Monroe     Trump +23%

Saginaw    Biden +0.3%

Shiawasee  Trump +20%

Van Buren   Trump +12%

 

[sancho panza]

Colorado Trump wins 3 pivot counteis from 4

 

Conejos       Trump +7%

Huerfano    Trump +3%

Las Animas Trump +10%

Pueblo        Biden +3%

 

Illinois-In Obama's home state Biden didn't manage to flip one bellwether pivot county.............................These are the sorts of resutls you get from people who come 5th in the New Hampshire primary

Alexander      Trump +10%

Carroll            Trump +29%

Fulton             Trump +21%

Henderson    Trump +33%

Henry            Trump +21%

Jo Daviess    Trump +17%

Knox              Trump +7%

Mercer           Trump +24%

Putnam          Trump +20%

Warren        Trump +30%

Whiteside   Trump +9%

 

[sancho panza]

.

Edited November 16, 2020 by sancho panza

[Noallegiance]

What does this mean in plain English?

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

What does this mean in plain English?

Basically,these counties are the equivalent of UK swing seats,They generally go the way of the overall vote.They went with Obama 08/12 and Trump 2016.

This time it looks like 90%+ went for Trump.Not what you'd expect with Biden being more popular than Obama.

Jsut doesn't look right...at all....

[Noallegiance]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Basically,these counties are the equivalent of UK swing seats,They generally go the way of the overall vote.They went with Obama 08/12 and Trump 2016.

This time it looks like 90%+ went for Trump.Not what you'd expect with Biden being more popular than Obama.

Jsut doesn't look right...at all....

Is this what he's attempting to use as evidence of a questionable result?

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Is this what he's attempting to use as evidence of a questionable result?

Not at all.This is jsutme wandering through the results and talking about what I've come across.

There's a thread on the main off topic forum about it with some good commentary,at the moment.

This pivot counties stuff jsut shows how unusal this result was compared to previous elections.

[sancho panza]

'absentee voting precincts not matching ballots cast'...24 secs

 

[Bear Hug]

Email from unibet just now confirming they will pay out on trump bets if he is sworn in on 20 Jan. Even though they already paid Biden bets

Edited November 18, 2020 by Bear Hug

[sancho panza]

Last batch of pivot counties indicate a large Trump win.

https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties:_The_counties_that_voted_Obama-Obama-Trump_from_2008-2016

Pivot counties being the only counties won by Obama 2008/12 and Trump 2016.

Of these other pivot counties Biden wins 8/124,overall that circa 19/206 counties so 8%.

Trump wins 92% of them.

 

 

 

Pivot counties cont.

Arkansas Trump 1 Biden 0

Woodruff    Trump +28%

 

Connecticut Trump 1 Biden 0

Windham    Trump +5%

 

Delaware Trump 0 Biden 1

Kent         Biden +4%

 

Indiana Trump 5 Biden 0

Delaware  Trump +13%

Laporte    Trump +7%

Perry         Trump +25%

Porter       Trump +6%

Vigo          Trump +15%

 

Iowa Trump 31 Biden 0

Allamakee   Trump +29%

Boone          Trump +24%

Bremner        Trump +16%

Buchanan      Trump +21%

Cedar            Trump +17%

Cerro Gordo  Trump +6%

Chickasaw    Trump +28%

Clarke          Trump +26%

Clayton      Trump +29%

Clinton        Trump +11%

Des Moines   Trump +19%

Dubuque     Trump +3%

Fayette      Trump +23%

Floyd          Trump +19%

Howard      Trump +28%

Jackson      Trump +26%

Jasper        Trump +21%

Jefferson    Trump +1%

Jones         Trump +21%

Lee             Trump +19%

Lousia        Trump +23%

Marshall     Trump +9%

Mitcheel    Trump +25%

Muscatine  Trump +7%

Poweshiek  Trump +23%

Tama          Trump +21%

Union       Trump +22%

Wapaello   Trump +23%

Webster    Trump +24%

Winnishiek  Trump +5%

Worth      Trump +26%

 

Kentucky Trump 1 Biden 0

Elliott   Trump +52%

 

Maine     Trump 7 Biden 1

Androscoggin   Trump +3%

Aroostock        Trump +29%

Franklin           Trump +_8%

Kennebec        Biden +0.2%

Oxford           Trump +1%

Penobscot     Trump +6%

Somerset       Trump +21%

Washington   Trump +19%

 

 

Mississippi Trump 2 Biden 0

Chickasaw    Trump+5%

Panola           Trump +4%

 

Montana Trump 2 Biden 1

Blaine    Biden +3%

Hill         Trump +14%

Roosevelt Trump +2%

 

Nebraska Trump 1 Biden 0

Thurston Trump +2%

 

New Hampshire Trump 1 Biden 2

Coos           Trump +6%

Hillsborough Biden +8%

Sullivan         Biden +3%

 

New Jersey Trump 1 Biden 1

Gloucester  Biden +2%

Salem   Trump +13%

 

New Mexico Trump 3 Biden 0

Colfax     Trump +11%

Hidalgo  Trump +15%

Valencia Trump +9%

 

New York Trump 18 Biden 0

Broome      Trump +9%

Cayuga      Trump +9%

Cortland     Trump +1%

Essex         Trump +7%

Franklin      Trump +13%

Madison    Trump +12%

Niagara      Trump +19%

Orange      Trump +10%

Oswego    Trump +32%

Otsego      Trump +5%

Rensselear  Trump +5%

St lawrence  Trump +25%

Saratoga    Trump +5%

Seneca      Trump +19%

Suffolk       Trump +12%

Sullivan     Trump +17%

Warren      Trump +13%

Washington  Trump +25%

 

 

North Carolina Trump 6 Biden 0

Bladen  Trump +14%

Gates  Trump +14%

Granville   Trump +6%

Martin  trump +5%

Richmond  Trump +13%

Robeson   Trump +18%

 

North Dakota Trump 4 Biden 0

Benson  trump +14%

Ransom   Trump +19%

Sargent  Trump +26%

Steele  Trump +23%

 

Ohio Trump 9 Biden 0

Ashtabula     Trump 23%

Erie                Trump +12%

Montgomery Biden +2%

Ottawa          Trump +23%

Portage         Trump +12%

Sandusky     Trump +27%

Stark             Trump +18%

Trumbull       Trump +10%

Wood          Trump +7%

 

Oregon Trump 2 Biden 0

Columbia   Trump +11%

Tillamook  Trump +2%

 

Rhode Island Trump 0 Biden 1

Kent Biden +8%

 

South Carolina Trump 5 Biden 0

Barnwell        Trump +8%

Calhoun         Trump +4%

Chester          Trump +11%

Colleton        Trump +10%

McCormick  Trump +4%

 

South Dakota Trump 5 Biden 0

Corson   Trump +2%

Day           Trump +28%

Marshall   Trump +20%

Roberts  trump +13%

Ziebach  Biden +8%

 

Tennessee Trump 1 Biden 0

Hardeman Trump +16%

 

Texas trump 1 Biden 0

Jefferson Trump +2%

 

Vermont Trump 1 Biden 0

Essex Trump +11%

 

Virginia Trump 5 Biden 0

Buckingham  Trump +13%

Caroline        Trump +4%

Essex            Trump +0.6%

Nelson         Trump +5%

Westmoreland  Trump +8%

 

Washington Trump 4 Biden 1

Clallam   Biden +3%

Cowlitz    Trump+18%

Grays     Trump +4%

Mason    Trump +4%

Pacific   Trump +1%

 

 

 

 

 

[Bear Hug]

I've tried asking this in the main election thread but got no response. 

Is there any disadvantage currently in lay bet on Biden compared to backing Trump? 

It looks like a small difference in payoff. 

Just in case if shit really hits the fan and no one becomes president 20th (?) of January

[jm51]

It depends on the odds. £100 to lay Biden @ 1.05 returns £2,100. £100 to back Trump @ 23.0 returns £2,300.

You'd think that the arb guys and the bots would be all over odds varying like that but no.

afaik, if neither gets 270 EVs, Betfair will pay out on who the senate decides is prez.

[Bear Hug]

It turns out I set £100 limit on bet fair exchange for myself when registering and cannot change it or top up until the end of November. 

Hope there are no good news for another week! 

Or does anyone know anywhere else where they are still allowing bets on 2020?

Edited November 23, 2020 by Bear Hug

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

I've tried asking this in the main election thread but got no response. 

Is there any disadvantage currently in lay bet on Biden compared to backing Trump? 

It looks like a small difference in payoff. 

Just in case if shit really hits the fan and no one becomes president 20th (?) of January

It's a liquidity issue but reflects the fact that there are third options eg kamala,pence etc.

 

Betfair is the only one that's running a2020 market afaik.

Everyone else called it way too early.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2020 by sancho panza

[Xtal]

To save taking the credit deflation thread off topic...

Johnson still marginally > 50% to still be there in 2024. But if not, who will it be?

The betting market is as open as I can ever remember for next party leader.

As I said in the macro thread I think if they replace Johnson before the next GE , it'll be someone outside of the current inner circle.

Would probably be someone acceptable to the ERG but not of them.

Tugenhat ticks a lot of boxes... there's really not much competence in that list is there?

 

[Hardhat]

Truss looked competent until she actually opened her mouth on Ukraine. The revelations re Rishis wife are going to damage him. Hunt was unpopular over education and junior doctors but has probably fared better overall.

True though, very depressing list really. Political class is dire in this country.

[Stuey]

3 hours ago, Xtal said:

To save taking the credit deflation thread off topic...

Johnson still marginally > 50% to still be there in 2024. But if not, who will it be?

The betting market is as open as I can ever remember for next party leader.

As I said in the macro thread I think if they replace Johnson before the next GE , it'll be someone outside of the current inner circle.

Would probably be someone acceptable to the ERG but not of them.

Tugenhat ticks a lot of boxes... there's really not much competence in that list is there?

 

I got 130/1 on Ben Houchen who now looks to be in to 66/1 but that's a real wait as he's not even gone for a seat yet. Kinda assumes Boris there for a good while yet.

[Calcutta]

Had a bet on Kwarteng at 150/1 a couple of years ago. Would probably go with that again now. 

[sancho panza]

I'll be awathcing this.Odds on le Pen might be worth a nudge.

[sancho panza]

there;'s a huge melocnhon vote that could vote macron/stay at home

https://www.politico.eu/article/france-presidential-election-2022-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-young-euroskeptics/

 

Are the oldies saving French President Emmanuel Macron?

In stark contrast to Euroskeptic older voters pushing for Brexit in the U.K., it is the more elderly contingent in France who seem to have rallied behind the liberal pro-EU incumbent, while many younger voters backed radical left-winger Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen on the far right.

The fact that Le Pen has, in the past, openly campaigned for the idea of France leaving the European Union and Mélenchon never hid his Euroskeptic leanings begs the question whether France’s youth has lost trust in the European project. A closer look at the age group breakdown of the first-round results, however, reveals a more nuanced picture.

Here are eight charts that help explain voting behavior in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday by age groups and what it means for the runoff election on April 24.

 

MACRON, THE ELDERS' STATESMAN

If only voters over the age of 64 had voted on Sunday, Emmanuel Macron would have won 40 percent of the vote. But among the younger cohorts, left-wing candidate Mélenchon gained the largest share of the vote, while Le Pen had more support than the current president among those between 25 and 64 years old.

 

First round voting in the 2022 French presidential election by age group.

 

YOUNG VOTERS ARE LESS EUROSKEPTIC

So, if the old people are the backbone of the pro-European Macron campaign and the younger age groups cheer for the left-wing Mélenchon or vote far-right, does this make the future of France even more Euroskeptic? The data does not support that view, as younger voters in France are more likely to feel proud to be European and are the only cohort where there’s a plurality for more European integration.

 

WHAT YOUNG VOTERS WILL DO IN THE RUNOFF

What matters now is how the second round of on April 24 will play out. And the age breakdown suggests the younger people are not going to switch from Mélenchon to Le Pen. 

 

The breakdown of second round voting intentions by age group underlines why overall Macron is still the favorite. But with 10 days to go, including campaign events and a debate, the polling is likely to shift. POLITICO’s polling platform Poll of Polls will make sure to track every twist and turn.

 

Share of respondents who would vote for Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen by age group.

 

WHAT YOUNG VOTERS WILL DO IN THE RUNOFF

What matters now is how the second round of on April 24 will play out. And the age breakdown suggests the younger people are not going to switch from Mélenchon to Le Pen. 

 

The breakdown of second round voting intentions by age group underlines why overall Macron is still the favorite. But with 10 days to go, including campaign events and a debate, the polling is likely to shift. POLITICO’s polling platform Poll of Polls will make sure to track every twist and turn.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

theres a lot to go for here for Le Pen,every chance we get a subdued turnout from the elft in the second round,unwilling to vote for macron,unwilling to vote for le pen.

intersitng as well to see how the two big parties have been sidelined since 2012 and Melonchon and le pen have risen since then

I think the trade here is whether the Left Front voters will turn out for Macron.worth ntoing Melnchon bested Le Pen 2017 first round total.

Edited April 15, 2022 by sancho panza

[Castlevania]

4 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

theres a lot to go for here for Le Pen,every chance we get a subdued turnout from the elft in the second round,unwilling to vote for macron,unwilling to vote for le pen.

intersitng as well to see how the two big parties have been sidelined since 2012 and Melonchon and le pen have risen since then

I think the trade here is whether the Left Front voters will turn out for Macron

There are 10 million votes outside the top 3 parties. Most of those will go to Macron. So even if most of the Left Front’s vote goes to Le Pen I don’t see her winning.

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

There are 10 million votes outside the top 3 parties. Most of those will go to Macron. So even if most of the Left Front’s vote goes to Le Pen I don’t see her winning.

I agree it's all about whther there's the appetite for voting amongst the younger elements-turnout.The only chance le pen has is turnout being low.Can't see another route,and she isn't that chariamstic either.At 10/1 I would consdier a small wager I think but

Alawyas remmebr Chirac getting all the poeple who ahted him to vote for him as he lined up against her father some years back.

I don't follow French politics particualrly as it's not that tradeable or liquid in the ohases that are.

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/french-election-results-2022-round-one-what-mean-le-pen-macron-1570165

The old parties are thumped

Both of the major parties on the left and right, the Socialist Party and conservative Les Républicains, failed to make much of an imprint. Neither Valérie Pécresse, the conservative candidate, nor Anne Hidalgo, the socialist candidate, were able to win any department outright.

Hidalgo could barely reach two per cent despite winning a resounding second term as Mayor of Paris.

 

That put her second-last of all candidates in the run-off, while Pécresse managed a more respectable 5th place overall.

Within the wider Paris region, Hidalgo was barely able to achieve above 20 per cent of the vote in any area, while Macron and Melenchon made gains within the city.

 

Abstentions continue to rise

Ipsos estimates that about 26 per cent of voters abstained in the first round of the election. That’s slightly more than in 2017 when just 23 per cent of registered voters chose not to turn out at the ballot box.

It follows a downwards trend in engagement in both France’s presidential and legislative elections which have continued since around 2007.

[sancho panza]

Loking at this,I don't think turnout will be low enough for le pen to stand a chance.MY vlaue marker may move out from 10/1.Vlaue is a relaitve concept anyway,if she improves in the polls,then I'd go in lower down.

I alwys measure these things in whether I have my wallet out metaphorically speaking....and currently I don't.

LAso the risk reward isn't good enough to back Macron.

I remember backing Corbyn for his second ledaership when he was favoureite but it was barn door to me he'd get it.1.3 but 30% overnight wasn't bad.

Macron at 1.15 not worht it imho,there's an outsdie chance le pen doesn't inspire people to vote against her like ehr dad did.

Edited April 15, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

On 09/07/2022 at 22:38, Castlevania said:

Rishi isn’t replacing Boris. 

That's my view CV. What makes you say that?

One of the general rules of political betting is to lay the tory favourite.