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Political betting thread.......


sancho panza

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  • 1 month later...

Heads up for 2020.Biden came foruth in Iowa.

Some value at 6.2.

@Democorruptcy you got a view on who the nominee will be for the dems?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

Bloomberg at 5.4 looks decent value too.

Cant see the Dems sticking Bernie up or Buttigieg

 

 

At 1.74 Trump looks good.If hes that the night before,I'll go long I suspect.I'm hoping Trump moves out some once they go firm on the Dem nominee and the MSM gets behind them.

Edited by sancho panza
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Democorruptcy
20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Heads up for 2020.Biden came foruth in Iowa.

Some value at 6.2.

@Democorruptcy you got a view on who the nominee will be for the dems?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

Bloomberg at 5.4 looks decent value too.

Cant see the Dems sticking Bernie up or Buttigieg

 

 

At 1.74 Trump looks good.If hes that the night before,I'll go long I suspect.I'm hoping Trump moves out some once they go firm on the Dem nominee and the MSM gets behind them.

It's not something I'd be interested in betting on.

Based on some of the things she has said in the past, I'd like Elizabeth Warren to win. Though like most of them do, she might turn traitorous if she had any power.

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  • 1 month later...
sancho panza

gonna be Biden Dem nominee 2.56.Trump 1.8.

Must say As long as trump health lasts can't see him lsoing.

Dems are a mess.With a bit of luck MSM will big up Joe's chances get Trump out beyond 2.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

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  • 3 months later...
sancho panza
On 06/03/2020 at 17:09, sancho panza said:

gonna be Biden Dem nominee 2.56.Trump 1.8.

Must say As long as trump health lasts can't see him lsoing.

Dems are a mess.With a bit of luck MSM will big up Joe's chances get Trump out beyond 2.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441

Times have changed.Betfair

Bdien 1.92 Trump 2.37

 

Some value emerging in the Trump price.I suspect he'll move out some more before November.

Some of teh State polls show an even race(in which case imho,you take the batter value bet)

As we get closer the data will get more interesting and trying to gauge the 'quiet' Trump supporter levels may get harder.

I think the Dems have gone for the wrong candidate but hey ho.They needed to go with someone other than Joe/Sanders/Hillary.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_president/#

image.png.879538491050e795e012c3bd2578e695.png

 

On 05/02/2020 at 22:49, sancho panza said:

Heads up for 2020.Biden came foruth in Iowa.

Some value at 6.2.

@Democorruptcy you got a view on who the nominee will be for the dems?

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111

Bloomberg at 5.4 looks decent value too.

Cant see the Dems sticking Bernie up or Buttigieg

 

 

At 1.74 Trump looks good.If hes that the night before,I'll go long I suspect.I'm hoping Trump moves out some once they go firm on the Dem nominee and the MSM gets behind them.

Not a bad call at 6.2 but I didn't bother

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6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Times have changed.Betfair

Bdien 1.92 Trump 2.37

 

Some value emerging in the Trump price.I suspect he'll move out some more before November.

Some of teh State polls show an even race(in which case imho,you take the batter value bet)

As we get closer the data will get more interesting and trying to gauge the 'quiet' Trump supporter levels may get harder.

I think the Dems have gone for the wrong candidate but hey ho.They needed to go with someone other than Joe/Sanders/Hillary.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state_president/#

image.png.879538491050e795e012c3bd2578e695.png

 

Not a bad call at 6.2 but I didn't bother

What happens if

A) Biden drops dead.

B) Gropes a woman

C) Pisses his pants

?

Edited by spygirl
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sancho panza
2 hours ago, spygirl said:

What happens if

A) Biden drops dead.

B) Gropes a woman

C) Pisses his pants

?

xD.

 

I'm waiting till the night or week before placing any bets ,neither getting any younger

My hope is that the MSM push Trumps odds out to where it's compelling .The current narrative suits me fine.The longer his odds (as long as hes in conetention in key states)then the more I'll wager.

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On 14/06/2020 at 22:55, sancho panza said:

I've heeard this name mentioned elsehwere as Bidens running amte.He'll go for an ethnic female I suspect.Narrows it down.No money running.

https://aldianews.com/articles/politics/elections/new-mexico-gov-lujan-grishams-covid-19-response-marks-her-vice-president

Does that help or hinder?

Biden is walking dead. The Dems 2021 campaign has the smell of the arse end of USSR about.

A long running national party and the only candidate they can put forward is a 77yo dementia sufferer.

Dems were lucky with Obama, who came from nowhere, so leapt the dumb Dem machine.

 

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48 minutes ago, spygirl said:

 

These are not good number for the Dems.

 

Um it's an 8 point lead against the incumbent with 4 months to go and the trend is still sliding away from Trump..

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10 minutes ago, eek said:

Um it's an 8 point lead against the incumbent with 4 months to go and the trend is still sliding away from Trump..

4 months is a lifetime for a 79yo ...

If Trump was as shit and as unpoluar as the media make out then youd expect a much higher lead.

8 points is nothing.

 

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1 minute ago, spygirl said:

4 months is a lifetime for a 79yo ...

If Trump was as shit and as unpoluar as the media make out then youd expect a much higher lead.

8 points is nothing.

 

 
 

Political Betting is -> https://www7.politicalbetting.com/ 

I suspect the current odds are roughly correct but the thing I'm watching out for is republican states tightening voting regulations and closing booths..

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sancho panza
13 hours ago, spygirl said:

 

These are not good number for the Dems.

They're national numbers .reality this will eb own and lost in the rust belt.

Caliornia distrots the nationals vote share

12 hours ago, eek said:

Um it's an 8 point lead against the incumbent with 4 months to go and the trend is still sliding away from Trump..

Its a fifty fifty race in the electoral college.could go either way.

this thread is about making moeny,no point betting on the favourtie in a 50/50 imho

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sancho panza

At 2.4 Trump looks the value here.I'm anticpaiting trading this near the end in case either dont make the finish line for whatever reason.I suspect Biden will be odds on the night before jsut like the glass ceiling herself back in 16..Hoping the second place runner will come out more which looks likely with Trump and the MSM not liking

going to be a great race this one.ANd hopefully a profitable betting trade.

SMarekts liquid with £2mn traded

image.png.34c28348888be90765150b4b361fd2c4.png

image.png.f8d1f212c74c778ad6540d8fd2e4a0ef.png

Betdaq £600k so far.

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