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Political betting thread.......


sancho panza

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sancho panza

Nice piccie of the alst results showing key swing states.

270 to win

Last time Hilary 232 Donald 306

State                      Trump Margin           EV

Iowa                        8.4%                          6

Ohio                       8.1%                            18

Florida                  1.2%                             29

Pennsylvania       0.7%                            20

Wisconsin             0.7%                           10

Michigan               0.3%                           16

Total                                                          99

 

So Don can afford to lose

Mich/Wisc/Iowa=16+10+6

Penn/Wisc=20+10

 

Other battlegroudn states

State                              Margin                                EV

Nevada(D)                    2.4%                                   6

Arizona(R)                    3.1%                                   11

Minnesota(D)              1.5%                                    10

New Hampshire(D)     0.3%                                    4

North Carolina(R)       3.4%                                    15

Total                                                                          46

 

Edited by sancho panza
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sancho panza

Minnesota looking off limits with this poll(even allowing for sampling errors and quiet conservatives) .No other state polls over the weekend.

image.thumb.png.72e51c2c96478c533f7d30db524c372e.png

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sancho panza

Smarkets liquid at £2mn unlike 2016 when BF was the only game in town.Interesting to see Turmp Michigan only down 1% to Joe and 2.68 on SM and 2.74 on BF.Trump has drifted some as was 2.4 last week

BF £40mn.Still four months out which means should end well over £500mn

image.png.9975a9b905f2025f8caadda6c9635edc.png

image.png.25b5129bad1d4e853783936d38dfba02.png

image.thumb.png.30445d738092a4127b072f85c63a22a6.png

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sancho panza
On 20/06/2020 at 22:50, sancho panza said:

270 to win

Last time Hilary 232 Donald 306

State                      Trump Margin           EV

Iowa                        8.4%                          6

Ohio                       8.1%                            18

Florida                  1.2%                             29

Pennsylvania       0.7%                            20

Wisconsin             0.7%                           10

Michigan               0.3%                           16

Total                                                          99

Iowa

image.thumb.png.f16a951edac892a8ff3759018ac1a08e.png

Ohio

image.thumb.png.2a9ad2c5b5cb89cef2590b84ad3424d0.png

Florida

image.thumb.png.a03c23dd28ec120a4ac3b80aedf9436d.png

Pennsylvania

image.thumb.png.90ad6fcf6860dcd3950762e00812bf39.png

Wisconsin

image.thumb.png.30f81eb348123c12f3fffffb6bbacde3.png

Michigan

image.thumb.png.504b312a1e7c01db16e21fc1c29721b6.png

 

Currently

Biden-Michigan,Wisconsin,Pennsylvania,Florida

Trump-Iowa

TCTC-Ohio

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sancho panza

Other battlegroudn states

State                              Margin                                EV

Nevada(D)                    2.4%                                   6

Arizona(R)                    3.1%                                   11

Minnesota(D)              1.5%                                    10

New Hampshire(D)     0.3%                                    4

North Carolina(R)       3.4%                                    15

Total                                                                          46

Nevada 6

image.thumb.png.a8e602b4f5927f9e6cadfbce3fee6f40.png

Arizona 11

image.thumb.png.204556a9c345f61dd8179428402701e6.png

Minnesota 10

image.thumb.png.fe5321f2a17caf7159b3c39c4595a0b3.png

New Hampshire 4

image.thumb.png.e09d1b137300beea86e2f7cfb33199bf.png

North Carolina 15

image.thumb.png.6fe08e0c6705218565bf940b58ba4e22.png

 

Biden-Nevada,Arizona,Minnesota,New Hampshire

Trump-North Carolina

TCTC-

image.png

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sancho panza
12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Biden-Michigan,Wisconsin,Pennsylvania,Florida

Trump-Iowa

TCTC-Ohio

 

Just now, sancho panza said:

Biden-Nevada,Arizona,Minnesota,New Hampshire

Trump-North Carolina

TCTC-

 

Trump=306-29(Florida)-20(Penn)-10(Wis)-16(Mic)-11(Ariz)=220

TCTC=Ohio 18

Biden keeps Nevada ,Minnesota,New Hampshire

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The Idiocrat
13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

image.thumb.png.a45174c54d185edbeaa3d6c0617da100.png

 

The Don keeps moving out.With polls coming in like this 3 should be reached next week.

image.png.9cb543c9142816a2392edbfa4216f842.png

Hopefully it keeps going with many in denial. I’m hoping that a bet on Trump pays for a blow out Christmas for me and the family, just like it did in 2016!

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sancho panza
39 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Hopefully it keeps going with many in denial. I’m hoping that a bet on Trump pays for a blow out Christmas for me and the family, just like it did in 2016!

Yeah,I think there's a high %age trump voters stasying quiet with pollsters which is common.

I'll start analysing the methodology nearer the time.

in 2016 I was betting through the summer becuase I thought his odds would close near the event.

I'm torn this time.Just sitting tight for now.It's a leveraged bet when you look how close florida/penn were last time.

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The Idiocrat
2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah,I think there's a high %age trump voters stasying quiet with pollsters which is common.

I'll start analysing the methodology nearer the time.

in 2016 I was betting through the summer becuase I thought his odds would close near the event.

I'm torn this time.Just sitting tight for now.It's a leveraged bet when you look how close florida/penn were last time.

Yep. I think my average was 12-1, although that was partly enhanced by using free bets offers from various bookies. I’m not a betting man, I’ve only bet on 2 things since, but Trump 2016 was such a good deal.

Edited by The Idiocrat
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sancho panza
Just now, The Idiocrat said:

Yep. I think my average was 12-1, although that was partly enhanced by using free bets offers from various bookies.

wow.I think mine was about 3.65 on BF.

there was 12/1 available on the night when Florida appeared lsot.

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The Idiocrat
1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

wow.I think mine was about 3.65 on BF.

there was 12/1 available on the night when Florida appeared lsot.

I still tease my daughter and say “Trump paid for your iPad”. She doesn’t like that!

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sancho panza
8 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

I still tease my daughter and say “Trump paid for your iPad”. She doesn’t like that!

It was a huge win for us too.Huge.I thought the race was 50/50 and I was right.Much like this time,it's closer than the polling is saying but currently Biden has the edge.

for it to be worth it for meTrump's odds need to be higher.have you got a planned entry point?

Biden looks to be piking Harris.which I dont think is a good choice.

I rarely read PB.com due to the clear policial bias of it's authors eg this piece here. I am shameless and will bet on anyone I think will win.

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/25/harris-retains-her-strong-favourite-position-in-the-democratic-vp-betting-with-susan-rice-now-second-favourite/

Edited by sancho panza
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The Idiocrat
Just now, sancho panza said:

It was a huge win for us too.Huge.I thought the race was 50/50 and I was right.Much like this time,it's closer than the polling is saying but currently Biden has the edge.

for it to be worth it for meTrump's odds need to be higher.have you got a planned entry point?

Biden looks to be piking Harris.which I dont think is a good choice.

I rarely read PB.com

https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/06/25/harris-retains-her-strong-favourite-position-in-the-democratic-vp-betting-with-susan-rice-now-second-favourite/

Yes, I don’t bother with pb.com any more. In the run up to the last election there was just a real feeling that the media had lost touch with the people and it was going to be a big surprise, and hence the big odds. I haven’t got that feeling yet, but that’s maybe because so much focus has been on Covid and BLM. I might start drip-feeding at 3-1 but I might wait until the end of the summer. As is say I like to do free bet offfers as it almost effectively doubled my odds/returns. Not sure if those are still available, will have to investigate.

Agree on Biden-Harris. Biden is so useless it gives me hope Trump will win. I still wouldn’t be surprised if he was somehow “replaced”. (I still have an outstanding punt on Hillary at 50-1! 😄).

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sancho panza
32 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Yes, I don’t bother with pb.com any more. In the run up to the last election there was just a real feeling that the media had lost touch with the people and it was going to be a big surprise, and hence the big odds. I haven’t got that feeling yet, but that’s maybe because so much focus has been on Covid and BLM. I might start drip-feeding at 3-1 but I might wait until the end of the summer. As is say I like to do free bet offfers as it almost effectively doubled my odds/returns. Not sure if those are still available, will have to investigate.

Agree on Biden-Harris. Biden is so useless it gives me hope Trump will win. I still wouldn’t be surprised if he was somehow “replaced”. (I still have an outstanding punt on Hillary at 50-1! 😄).

Anotehr reason to wait.Also neither of them are that young any more.;....

I agree on Biden being a poor choice for the dems.Very lacklustre and hes a clear compromise candidate who'll struggle to motivate the base.Whereas Trump voters will be motivated.Also gun sales have rocketed since BLm so I suspect a lot of possible new trump voters who haven't voted before.

In teh US with the turnout at 50%, in some places,you have to be careful with the pollsters who past vote wieght.

At 4-1 with a month to go I'd start drip feeding on smarkets.MSM will talk up Biden jsut like they did Shillary.

Trump got a record turnout for republcians of black vote.I expect the same again thsi time.

 

 

 

PB is jsut full of lefties who bet with their heartss.anfd generally lose.

Edited by sancho panza
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sancho panza

This is Joe's problem

https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/06/26/joe-biden-i-will-force-americans-to-wear-masks-in-public/

Former Vice President Joe Biden said Thursday that he would compel Americans to wear masks in public if elected president.

In an interview with Pittsburgh CBS affiliate KDKA, Biden said that he would use federal power to “mandate” masks.

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sancho panza

Styx making a point hat the final swing to Trump in the last election was 2.5% ,STyx predicting 4.5% this time.Trumps underpolling known now but the degee is the issue.Approval ratings are historically good compared to Obama.

Trump playing a good breath holding strategy with the antifa.

45% likely level of approval for him to win

 

Edited by sancho panza
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sancho panza

Trump drifiting out nicely......with Wisconsin seeing a Trump pollwin.If margin of error is 4-5% as Styx thesis then Trump could be a 50/50 there.

Florida looks out of reach at the mo.....

image.thumb.png.6653c6b3a0c6bb61f4ff735f2d15f443.png

image.png.c361c05527c494296d0b14a650c8857e.png

Edited by sancho panza
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Talking Monkey
On 28/06/2020 at 08:01, sancho panza said:

Styx making a point hat the final swing to Trump in the last election was 2.5% ,STyx predicting 4.5% this time.Trumps underpolling known now but the degee is the issue.Approval ratings are historically good compared to Obama.

Trump playing a good breath holding strategy with the antifa.

45% likely level of approval for him to win

 

I love listening to Styx he is proper entertaining and comes across a good all round sort of dude

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sancho panza

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/us-gun-purchases-coronavirus-record

More than 3.7m total firearm background checks were conducted through the FBI’s background check system in March, the highest number on record in more than 20 years. An estimated 2.4m of those background checks were conducted for gun sales, according to adjusted statistics from a leading firearms industry trade group. That’s an 80% increase compared with the same month last year, the trade group said.

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52189349

What do the figures show?

The FBI conducted 3.7m background checks in March 2020, the highest total since the instant background check programme began in 1998.

The figure represents an increase of 1.1m over March 2019.

On 21 March alone, 210,000 checks were done, the largest one-day record ever.

According to US media, the FBI data indicates that over two million guns were purchased in March alone.

Illinois led with nearly a half million sales, followed by Texas, Kentucky, Florida, and California.

Why are sales skyrocketing?

According to Georgia State University law school professor Timothy Lytton, an expert on the US gun industry, most new gun sales are being motivated by two factors that have been spurred on by the coronavirus crisis.

The first is the concern that civil society - fire, police and health services - could be severely "eroded" someday, leading to a breakdown in law and order. In such a case, a gun can be viewed as a "self-help" survival tool, he says.

The second reason is concerns over so-called big government infringing on American freedoms such as gun ownership, which is enshrined in the US constitution.

 


 

 

 

 

Styx

Gun sales up 2 million in last two months.At 3 mins.Gun owners heavily Republican.Only state that has high gun ownership levels and votes Dem is Vermont.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/iNh069FVDRM/

 

Edited by sancho panza
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19 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I love listening to Styx he is proper entertaining and comes across a good all round sort of dude

Thank God the pigeon chested beardy has started wearing a shirt.

 

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