Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

[sancho panza]

Rise of right wing militias.Steve Truley claiming large number of new recruits are police officers.

Discusses post riot reality

Intersting clips of Militia men and police meeting at 4 minutes.(also interesting seeing Blakc/Latino members in the militias)-definteiyl not what you see on the MSM.

New coalition between law enforcement (whove been thrwon under th bus by left wing politicians) and militias.

500 milita groups-

New politcal paradigm-people versus the elite political class.Not right versus left anymore.

The voting base in polaces like Wisconsin that swung 40% behind Trump in 2016 has been enrgised by the riots.

 

 

[sancho panza]

Intersting to seet his going on.Left wing press playing that she won vs trump backed incumbent.

real story here is a local person with no ecxerience in politics gets to run for congress.She opened her restaurant when the State ordered it shut down.

She and hers won't be voting for Bdien,going to be worth watching her run as it goes forward.

The gun owners are raging.This take down of Tipton is a decent insight into the fact that the polls may not be that accurate this time.She won by a 9 point margin.

https://www.cpr.org/2020/07/01/who-is-lauren-boebert/

Lauren Boebert was the Tuesday night primary surprise for many with her Republican primary win in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District over five-term incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton.

Boebert challenged Tipton because she felt like he wasn’t effectively representing the district, which looks like a fish hook sprawled across the Western Slope and southern Colorado, ending in the east with Pueblo County.

“We need strong leadership that will be a strong voice for our freedom, not only on the campaign trail but as an elected representative,” Boebert told CPR News in June.

She again echoed those sentiments after she was declared the winner, holding a nine-point lead in unofficial returns.

“I joined this race because thousands of ordinary Americans just like me are fed up with politics as usual,” she said in a statement. “Colorado deserves a fighter who will stand up for freedom, who believes in America and who is willing to take on all the left-wing lunatics who are trying so hard to ruin our country. We are in a battle for the heart and soul of our country. I’m going to win this November because freedom is a great motivator.”

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/12/08/lauren-boebert-colorado-3rd-congressional-district/

Boebert, a self-described avid supporter of President Donald Trump, briefly attracted national attention in September when she challenged then-presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke about a comment he made during a Democratic primary debate in which he said, “Hell, yes, we’re going to take your AR-15, your AK-47…”

 

“I am here to say: Hell, no, you’re not,” Boebert told him during his town-hall style visit to Aurora. Her comment was met with scattered jeers.

Edited July 2, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

[sancho panza]

Edited July 8, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

From 8 minutes in some excellent analysis of key counties in swing states

 

 

[sancho panza]

another interesting piece from Turley,ignoring first polls he discusses as they're not appearing on RCP .Aside from that interesting discussion about swing coutnies,the historical role of riots in dictating the following election.Backed up by rising gun licence applications.

Alos intersting thesis on underpolling of Trump,the size of which is they key to the trade.

Florida.Penn.

 

[sancho panza]

Primary model also discussed by Turley above

 

[sancho panza]

 

[sancho panza]

Biden still in the chair.Odds on the Don still not good enough imho.Not sure Biden's a winner,got to see Trump competitive at 3.5 but needs to be competitive in Florida

 

Edited July 24, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

http://primarymodel.com/

The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176.  This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.  

In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%.  http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full.

It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and, in addition, on an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election. This year the model has been calibrated to predict the Electoral College vote.  

For the record, the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner of 25 out of 27 elections since 1912, when presidential primaries were introduced. The misses are 1960, one of the closest presidential elections, and 2000, when the late count in Florida handed Bush the victory; still Al Gore wound up winning the popular vote.  

Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November.  On the Democratic side, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders split the primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina while Trump handily won the Republican Primary in New Hampshire (the GOP primary in South Carolina was cancelled this year). 

What favors Trump in 2020 as well is the cycle of presidential elections operating for nearly 200 years, as illustrated by the snapshot since 1960.  After one term in the White House the incumbent party is favored to win re-election unlike the situation when it has held office for two or more terms. 

To capture the effects of this electoral cycle and of the nominees’ primary performances, the Primary Model uses data from elections going back as far as 1912. That was the year when presidential primaries were introduced. As it turned out, the candidate who won his party’s primary vote in 1912, Woodrow Wilson, went on to defeat the candidate who had lost his party’s primary vote, William Howard Taft.  From then on, as illustrated by a representative set of elections (1964, 1980, and 2012), the candidate with the better primary vote tended to win the general election.

For elections prior to 1952 all primaries were included. Beginning in 1952, only the New Hampshire Primary has been used, as a rule.  South Carolina has been added for elections since 2008. Both Obama then and Hillary Clinton in 2016 enjoyed strong support in a large and most loyal Democratic constituency, African-Americans, who are few in numbers in New Hampshire.  So did Joe Biden this year in relying on South Carolina as his “firewall.”

Contrary to the Primary Model, pre-election polls are giving Biden a comfortable lead over Trump. The RealClearPolitics average in early July puts the former vice president ahead of the incumbent president by nine percentage points; Biden is ahead even in the survey of a network, Fox News, not known as a liberal bastion. Does his lead in the polls now guarantee a victorious finish for Biden in November?

As for Trump, trailing Democratic contenders is nothing new for him. He was behind Hillary Clinton in polls at just about every moment in 2016 and wound up winning the election. This was by no means the rare exception that proves the rule.  The terrain of presidential contests is littered with nominees who saw a poll lead in the spring turn to dust in the fall. The list is long and discouraging for early frontrunners. Beginning with Dewey (1948) it spans Nixon (1960), Carter (1980), Dukakis (1988), Bush (1992), and Kerry (2004), to cite just the most spectacular cases. Warning: Polls in the spring are barely better than a coin flip to predict the winner in November.

[spygirl]

There are literally 1000s of people who paycheck seems to be predicting the US election.

Mental.

Most are shit.

I dont think Trump is the dead duck that the media like to pitch.

The event that will decide this is the debate.

Trump is good as its like listening to a moron middle manager -stream after stream of idicoy that sorts good.

Biden looks like he'll be terrible.

For a candidate, Im not seeing Biden out n about much.

 

 

 

[sancho panza]

On 25/07/2020 at 06:59, spygirl said:

There are literally 1000s of people who paycheck seems to be predicting the US election.

Mental.

Most are shit.

I dont think Trump is the dead duck that the media like to pitch.

The event that will decide this is the debate.

Trump is good as its like listening to a moron middle manager -stream after stream of idicoy that sorts good.

Biden looks like he'll be terrible.

For a candidate, Im not seeing Biden out n about much.

rumorus are bidens not to o good on his feet....

suspect hsi debates will be dire like you say.

Styx is reckoning trump understated by four or five at the mo,which looks liekly.

record number of gun owners over last few motnhs,depends where they are

 

there are ten key swing states,florida and pennsylvania being key I think as they're 52 EV's.

I like the look of trumpat 3.5 if he's polling within 4 in swing states.

[sancho panza]

Those last two days of polls should worry the biden camp.florida competiive if true and that opens up a whole range of routes to the WH 2020 for Trump.personally I think Trump is in a bottoming phase,but thats jsut a read on things,nothing concrete

[sancho panza]

Mish takes the other side of the trade calling a Blue wave.

The only problem with the thesis is Biden.QUite a few of the front runners would likely have won this election for the dems-not bernie.I think Joe will have a turnout problem.

https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/clock-just-ran-out-on-600-in-weekly-unemployment-benefits

[sancho panza]

these are the sort of polls that show trumpt is still a 50/50.By my reckoning and others incl sty-x then 4% is a nothing lead and Trump has a shot in florida.then all that matters is the price of the bet.media is pumping out perma bull stories on Joe.reality is that hes not as ahead as he thinks he is.

aslo the less than 4% lead in ohio and NC.

 

possibility of Trump going out to 6 before the election?????

now looking for 3 on BF/Smarekts.£55mn on BF and £3mn on SM...............going to be a massive year.

Edited August 8, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

If I was Trump I'd be pleased with some of these polls.

Trump 2.6 on smarkets.

[sancho panza]

Race opening up here.+4% for biden is margin of error territory.

North carolina,minnesota,Penn,Wisconsin.

 

[sancho panza]

Just what the market needs.Mike Smithson and the PBer cohort seem to be getting behind the Dem ticket.A sign in itself.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/08/16/on-the-eve-of-the-virtual-democratic-convention-new-polling-shows-strong-support-for-bidens-vp-choice-kamala-harris/

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has good news for the Democrats on the eve of their virtual convention and after a week which has seen Kamala Harris become Biden’s VP pick.

The data shows that more Americans approve than disapprove of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris by a 25-point margin, 54% to 29%. Amongst Republican voters the split is is 25-55% – so quite a high proportion backing the Senator from California.

The split amongst Democrats is 86-8%.

Another positive figure for the party from the poll is that among independents, potential swing voters in presidential elections the split is 52-29%.

 

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/08/13/so-far-the-kamala-harris-announcement-hasnt-impacted-on-the-wh2020-betting/

Mike Smithson

So far there has been very little polling carried out after yesterday’s big announcement that Kamala Harris will be the nominee for VP. In the betting markets the news, which has been widely covered in the US, has hardly moved Biden is seen as about a 60% chance.

Last night there was a big event, alas without an audience, in which Harris gave her first big speech since she got on the ticket and however you arrange things this is hardly going to be as effective than with an enthusiastic hall of supporters cheering every word. But we are where we are and Tean Biden/Harris are going to do nothing that could draw criticism over their attitude to COVID.

My reaction was that Harris was really quite impressive and is going to add a lot to the Biden campaign which is going to come under fierce attack because of his age and his reputation for gaffes.

I think that Harris will add far more than normal VP choices and that will reinforce the overall ticket.

As for Trump I like the pic above which was flagged up on the previous thread. He’s a bald as I am.

Mike Smithson

 

[sancho panza]

Styx takes the other side of the trade.

Styx saying Biden looked everywhere else and then picked Harris.Harris insufferable.Harris over zealous prosecutor.Trump got more votes in their primary than the non incumbent challenger-only fourth to do so-Eisenhower,reagan.Harris is uniquely unqualified to go after the demographic Biden needs(very left,young demogrpahic).

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by sancho panza

[Wheeler]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The data shows that more Americans approve than disapprove of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris by a 25-point margin, 54% to 29%. Amongst Republican voters the split is is 25-55% – so quite a high proportion backing the Senator from California.

The split amongst Democrats is 86-8%.

Another positive figure for the party from the poll is that among independents, potential swing voters in presidential elections the split is 52-29%.

Remind me, how well did Kamala Harris do in the presidential nomination race? I've had a look at wiki p but that seems to skip over it and says she only withdrew because of lack of funding, due to evil Trump!

Didn't she poll under 5% during the campaign?

Edit: Actually it looks like she never even got as far as getting to the primaries having finished 2nd last amongst the major contenders to drop out, with 849 votes in total (out of about 36m cast in total).

Edited August 17, 2020 by Wheeler
Further investigation

[Noallegiance]

Has there ever been a swing from global socialism to capitalism?

We're gonna need one.

I'm feeling more lonely by the day.

[sancho panza]

52 minutes ago, Wheeler said:

Remind me, how well did Kamala Harris do in the presidential nomination race? I've had a look at wiki p but that seems to skip over it and says she only withdrew because of lack of funding, due to evil Trump!

Didn't she poll under 5% during the campaign?

Edit: Actually it looks like she never even got as far as getting to the primaries having finished 2nd last amongst the major contenders to drop out, with 849 votes in total (out of about 36m cast in total).

I think the more worrying thing for the Dem ticket is Bidens performance in the primaries.He came fifth in New Hampshire,then the Dems did what they do and whittled the field down until the 5th place in New Hampshire was the chosen one.

Trump has had a really good record on tunrout at primaries-which given there was minor oppostition.Compared to Obamas 2012 result,Trump clearly has a well motivated following

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

[sancho panza]

looking back at primary results from 2012/2004 with incumbetns pursuing re electino

no adequate data yet on Bush 04

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2020_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

 

State                                                           Obama 12                  Biden 2020                   Trump 2020

Florida                                                                                         1.07mn/1.74mn              1,162,984

Pennsylvania                                               616,102                  1.264mn/1.595mn       1,053,606

Michigan                                                      174,054(caucus)   840k/1.578mn                640,522

Ohio                                                               542,086                  647k/894k                      713,546

Wisconsin                                                    293,194                      581k/925k                    616,782

North Carolina                                            766,077                      572k/1.33mn                750,600

Minnesota                                                   16,733(convention)  287k/744k                     137,275

Georgia                                                         139,273                     904k/1.066mn               942,337

 

[sancho panza]

polling catch up.

rumorus of Trump making New York competitive look well wide of the mark.

from RCP

the value being in Florida at 4%/Penn 3% ,imho, margin of error territory and liekly to give biden lead at bookies but evens actual odds of winning.

Minnesota tie also a stand out.