Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

Biden looks finished already.This was meant to be his honeymoon.Dreams of 3+ are gone,looks like we'll descend to favourite on Donald soon.Hope Michigan is an outlier,otherwise the odds could be heading sotuh soon.

full Michigan hx below

 

[sancho panza]

some itneresting polls in Penn and Florida,showing Trump evening up

[sancho panza]

from mid july thats a decent swing to trump in florida

[jm51]

On 10/06/2020 at 14:17, sancho panza said:

Times have changed.Betfair

Bdien 1.92 Trump 2.37

Up to now, there is £76.5 million matched.

That's chicken feed compared to what is spent on a presidential election.

How much cash would it take to push a (should be) 1.4 candidate out to 2.4?

The aim would be to have people believing that the smart money says Trump is not going to win.

[sancho panza]

51 minutes ago, jm51 said:

Up to now, there is £76.5 million matched.

That's chicken feed compared to what is spent on a presidential election.

How much cash would it take to push a (should be) 1.4 candidate out to 2.4?

The aim would be to have people believing that the smart money says Trump is not going to win.

By the close of play I supect it'll be north of £500mn on BF,SMarkets-where I trade-will be circa £20mn .

Moivng that market would probably take a £0.5-1 mn a day at the mo,but it's not sustainable as you would need deep deep pockets.

The traders are looking the worng way on this one imho and there could be a good price on the night or jsut before.

Lot of people talking down Trump's chances.

[Noallegiance]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Lot of people talking down Trump's chances.

I've heard that before somewhere.....

[sancho panza]

If I was Biden I'd be wary of these polls.

Trump coming up the inside in Florida.

[sancho panza]

some detail on new gun applications>Interesting to see the swing states feature so heavily at the top of the buying lsits.

https://www.thetrace.org/2020/08/do-gun-owners-vote-republican/

Data on gun background checks does not indicate whether a buyer is purchasing a gun for the first time. The National Shooting Sports Foundation, the industry’s trade group, has estimated that new buyers were responsible for 40 percent of sales in the first four months of 2020, based on a survey that asked dealers to estimate the makeup of their customers.

https://www.thetrace.org/features/gun-sales-estimates/

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/03/fbi-us-firearms-sales-boom-during-pandemic-lockdown/

In July 2020, the FBI conducted more than 3.6 million firearm background checks, making it the third highest month on record for checks since the bureau began keeping statistics in 1998, according to new data released on Monday by the agency. By comparison, the bureau conducted just over 2 million checks in July 2019.

One other enduring pattern in 2020 has been the order of states topping the list, with Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, Florida and California continually seeing the most background checks for the sale, transfer, or licensing of guns.

Under US law, federally licensed gun dealers must run checks on every buyer, whether a purchase is made in a store or at a gun show.

It is not uncommon for high numbers of FBI firearm background checks to follow incidents of national tragedy. In 2012, federal law enforcement noted a 39% spike in firearm transfer background checks during the month of the deadly shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, as compared to the previous month. The FBI similarly saw a 48% surge in background checks in the month of the 2015 terrorist attack in San Bernardino, California, when compared to the previous month.

Following the record-setting figures in March 2020, an official from the National Rifle Association — one of the nation’s largest gun-rights organizations — said concerns about personal safety during the coronavirus pandemic are likely key drivers in the surge of FBI background checks.

[sancho panza]

The devil is the detail.

CBS Minnesota Poll.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HgXF5rfA2yev5hD6mi4sCVgTmof3XPJ4/view

Section 10 page 20

Reason for voting Biden

Because I like him 29%

Biden is Dem Nominee 17%

To oppose Trump 54%

Reason voting for Trump

Because I like him 65%

Trump is Rep Nominee 16%

To oppose Bdein 19%

[sancho panza]

Florida and NC look good for DT.50/50 at least.

Trump 2.16 on SMarkets.

[sancho panza]

Comparison versus 2016 polls Trump v Clinton

Florida Trump underpolled by  2%,Clinton by 0.8% squeezing Stein and Johnson in Florida

Penn -Trump underpolled by 4%

Michigan- Trump underpolled by 5.3%

Ohio-Trump underpolled by 5.5%

North Carolina-Trump underpolled by 3.4%

Minnesota- Trump underpolled by 5.9%

 

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

 

Florida

 

Pennsylvania

Michigan

Ohio

Minnesota

 

Edited September 15, 2020 by sancho panza

[eek]

On 15/09/2020 at 16:53, sancho panza said:

Comparison versus 2016 polls Trump v Clinton

Florida Trump underpolled by  2%,Clinton by 0.8% squeezing Stein and Johnson in Florida

Penn -Trump underpolled by 4%

Michigan- Trump underpolled by 5.3%

Ohio-Trump underpolled by 5.5%

North Carolina-Trump underpolled by 3.4%

Minnesota- Trump underpolled by 5.9%

 

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

I'm not betting on this election* (mainly because I suspect its going to be such a nightmare markets will be voided or be dependent on the detailed wording of the actual bet.

However I definitely wouldn't be betting on the basis that a poll that is out 6% last time round will be wrong by 6% this time around. There are too many factors involved to say that this year's mistakes will be the same as last times and while it's unlikely it's possible that this polls have compensated or even over-compensated for the mistakes they made in 2016 and could now be overstating Trump rather than understating him.

* that's not 100% true, I have £10 at 66/1 on it being an electoral college tie because 2020...

Edited September 18, 2020 by eek

[sancho panza]

On 18/09/2020 at 12:19, eek said:

I'm not betting on this election* (mainly because I suspect its going to be such a nightmare markets will be voided or be dependent on the detailed wording of the actual bet.

However I definitely wouldn't be betting on the basis that a poll that is out 6% last time round will be wrong by 6% this time around. There are too many factors involved to say that this year's mistakes will be the same as last times and while it's unlikely it's possible that this polls have compensated or even over-compensated for the mistakes they made in 2016 and could now be overstating Trump rather than understating him.

* that's not 100% true, I have £10 at 66/1 on it being an electoral college tie because 2020...

looking at the methodoligies of the major pollsters,they don't appear to be making any effort to compensate for being so far out in 2016.Its same old straight who you going to vote for stuff.The only reason Trump is a compelling bet is because of the underpolling.Same last time.ALos MSM create a real sense of 'he won't win' in the main narrtive which helps keeps the odds out.

I think 4% is my estimate for underpolling in key swing states this time.

Penn and Florida loking cpmpetitive to say the least.

[sancho panza]

worth noting as well the role Libertarian voters may have played in key swing states

loking at Penn Johnson appears to have got squeezed by Trump compared to his polling elesewhere.

same on florida

[sancho panza]

Trump would likely be happy with those.

[sancho panza]

[sancho panza]

Trump looking a 50/50 in Florida.Loses Penn/Mich.Can see him picking up Nevada poss.

Currently 3 on Smarekts,getting near value.Under 3 not worht the risk really.Looking at the polls,I see Trump drifitng out some more.

[sancho panza]

[sancho panza]

Trump now at 2.86 on SMarekts.

Understandably so looking at thes epolls and the HUneter Biden emails.

Value now??

 

[sancho panza]

One of the most insightful pieces in a while.Shwos how few pollsters are trying to rectify 2016 underpolling errors.

Interesting they're highlighting the role of gun ownership and also the trend of younger Black/Hispanci voters voting Trump.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimrossi/2020/10/13/only-one-poll-shows-trump-leading-i-interviewed-the-polls-director/#4b21b0f64ffc

Only One Poll Shows Trump Leading. I Interviewed The Poll’s Director.

Jim RossiContributor

Democracy Institute's monthly poll surveyed 1,500 likely US voters with a 2.5% margin of error and ... [+]

Courtesy Democracy Institute

Poll after poll show Joe Biden as heavy favorite - despite him not knowing what state he was in when campaigning here in Las Vegas last week, and him mistakenly saying he’s running for Senate. While the Real Clear Politics average has Biden up 10 points, Donald Trump’s betting odds have taken a dive. After a peak of 48%, Bovada LV has Orange Man underdogging it at 35% - Biden -200, Trump +170. The Real Clear Politics average sits at 32.5%.

But not all is as it seems, according to Patrick Basham, polling director at the Democracy Institute. The Democracy Institute is a relative newcomer to political polling - but it correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s historic 2016 upset. Basham’s latest poll has Trump up 46% to 45%, and up four points in the critical battleground states. I asked Basham why his poll looks so different than the others - and why it’s getting so little mainstream media play.

JIM ROSSI: True or False: We’re in the midst of the biggest American voter shift since at least 1964, and most pollsters cannot or are not measuring it.

PATRICK BASHAM: Partly false and partly true. It’s something of a shift, but not so much historic as an evolution of 2016. The part that is undoubtedly true is that most of the polls are misleading their readers into thinking the election is a done deal.

JIM: Are polls actively misleading people - or simply not able to measure what’s happening?

PATRICK: They’re not mutually exclusive. Some polls may just be off, some are advancing an agenda, and there is an intertwining of the two. In my opinion, there is a misreading of the electorate, based on many assumptions that are not likely accurate.

Polling is supposed to be incredibly scientific, and the science is more advanced than ever. But polling has always been a synthesis of science and art – and polls are more art than science in 2020. One of the major challenges is figuring out how the electorate will look.

JIM: What are some of those assumptions?

PATRICK: With most of the mainstream polls – New York Times, CNN, the university polls – a fundamental assumption is that the electorate – aka turnout – will be much, much larger than 2016. 10-30 million more, that’s 25-30% larger. That makes it essential that polls capture many, many more Democrat voters.

JIM: How is the Democracy Institute poll different?

PATRICK: Two key ways – turnout and estimating shy Trump voters or secret Trump voters. The Democracy Institute - along with Zogby and Trafalgar Group – those of us who find a very competitive race see turnout very similar to 2016.

JIM: You work with the libertarian Cato Institute. Most if not all major polls have affiliations with media companies, think tanks, and universities.

PATRICK: Now you have the issue of agendas. It appears today that many corporations and media outlets clearly have a horse in this race and show their candidate to be well ahead. Certain reward for a certain outcome.

Patrick Basham, polling director at the Democracy Institute.

Courtesy Democracy Institute

JIM: You mention a couple examples.

PATRICK: ORC - Opinion Research Corporation - got fired by CNN after the 2016 election. Their main transgression was that they were pretty accurate.

JIM: Coming from CNN, that doesn’t surprise me.

PATRICK: The USC poll - University of Southern California - repeatedly asks the same respondents 2 or 3 questions daily…

JIM: Like a cross between a poll and a focus group?

PATRICK: …and it showed Trump competitive in 2016. In late September 2020, it was showing Biden’s lead evaporate. They claimed “technical problems” and changed their methodology. They are underpolling GOP voters.

JIM: Let me ask about secret Trump voters aka shy Trump voters. In today’s “woke” “cancel culture,” people risk social ostracism, job loss, mob intimidation and outright violence. Bettors on the underdog see an edge here. Can we measure these voters?

PATRICK: How I come at this is, Democracy Institute’s first public foray into public polling was Brexit. We got it correct – within one percentage point (4% - actual result vs. 3% - our projected result). The reason why we got it right – maybe the only reason – is we believed there were shy Brexit voters. So we devised questions to find out, then applied that to the US election in 2016. We discovered shy Trump voters – a few percentage points, low single digits – but significant in a close race.

Now we come to 2020, and a lot of people are looking. What we found is they do exist and in greater numbers. Our questions go like this: ‘If you were a Trump voter, would you tell anybody? Would you tell family? A friend? A coworker? Would you put a sign on your lawn or your car?’

JIM: In 2016, Trump outperformed the Real Clear Politics average for battleground states by four points. Is that a good over/under for 2020?

PATRICK: I’d advise you to take the over. Nationally - and this is probably conservative, we see it at 5 to 6%. State by state, where the rubber hits the road in the Electoral College, it varies more. We estimate more in battleground states…

JIM: Some of these are literally battleground states – as people argue and in some cases engage in violence.

PATRICK: Very crudely stated, we see three types of shy Trump voters. First is the blue-collar, middle aged white male in the rural Midwest. He is more busy than afraid to tell you. Second is the white suburban female. Third are African-American and Hispanic voters. They are moving toward Trump in significant, maybe even historic numbers.

JIM: In my experience, people don’t easily change their political views. But two things can change that: serious economic risks and physical danger.

PATRICK: The #1 predictor of voting Republican is owning a handgun. Black female gun ownership has skyrocketed. Forty percent of new handgun owners are female; sixty percent are African American.

JIM: How has the media covered your poll? Let me put it another way: Has the media covered your poll, with the exception of the UK Sunday Express and Breitbart? At absolute minimum, it seems very ‘man bites dog’ and a juicy story.

PATRICK: If we lived in a media world today like we used to, or a media world we wish it to be, you’d assume our ‘man bites dog’ story is at least newsworthy. We were getting some attention with our monthly poll. Then two months ago, our September poll showed Trump up 48-45 nationally and up 49-42 in battleground states. Trump started tweeting about it.

Then when the October poll came out, Trump was in the hospital with COVID-19. Our poll was the only thing he tweeted about that day. We got hate mail and personal attacks on a scale that was hard to encounter. How we produced the numbers was not challenged, just that we produced numbers others don’t like. We’ve gone from having the most media-ignored poll to the most infamous poll.

JIM: Do Real Clear Politics or CNN have any objective criteria for being included in their reporting?

PATRICK: Real Clear Politics has no hard-and-fast rules. CNN said, ‘We don’t meet their standards.’ I agree. We tend to be accurate. They simply don’t want a counter-narrative.

JIM: How about FiveThirtyEight?

PATRICK: Most of the polls they have the highest rated are the ones with the worst record in recent years.

JIM: Unlike pundits, bettors benefit from accurate information, not polemics. People often say, ‘The only poll that counts is in November.’ I wrote a book about fraud. I think mass-mail voting brings profound election fraud risks. These polls, to me, are shaping the narrative of how the election is supposed to go. Some bettors worry the game is fixed.

PATRICK: If you came from another planet and looked at every single line of tangible evidence except polling – just about every one of those metrics point to Trump.

56% of Americans report being better off than four years ago - the highest recorded since Ronald ... [+]

Graphic courtesy of Gallup.

JIM: Let’s finish by digging deeper on the secret Trump voter. Trump, in my opinion, has been under greater continuous stress, even before inauguration, since any president since at least FDR. Politics aside, I see some people feeling sympathy - or at least grudging respect, like a prizefighter who just won’t go down.

PATRICK: Here’s one reason people respect him: Unlike so many politicians, Trump has tried to keep his promises – even unpopular ones.

JIM: Could there be people out there who won’t know they’re voting for Trump until they’re in the booth, or filling out their ballot?

PATRICK: A percentage of undecided voters not only haven’t told others – they haven’t told themselves. How can anyone say with certainty what the precise number will be?

Edited October 21, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Florida,look good for trump. 55/45 .2016 Underpoll=2%

Penn looks 2 clsoe to call 50/50.Underpoll 2016 =1.3%

Ohio looks good for Trump 70/30.Underpoll 2016=5%

Minnesota looks within range-likely underpolling amongst suburban middle class anti riot gun owners. Biden 60/40.Poss underpoll similar to WIsconsin 2016.Underpoll 2016=5%

Michigna looks Biden 70/30 Underpoll =5.3% 2016

North Carolina looks good for Trump 60/40.Underpoll 2016 =3.4%

Wisocnsin looks 60/40 Biden Underpoll Trump 6.9% 2016

New Hampshire underpoll 2016 3.8%

Trump overpolls=Virgina/Nevada

[sancho panza]

 

Sept gun sales,show no sign of slowing down

Intersting as well to look at some states in isolation eg New Hampshire.Trumpo lsot by 3000 votes last time.Whislt this indicator only shows FBI background checks,even amognst some of these there'll be new sales.So New Hampshire for example

March 2020

April 2020

May 2020

June 2020

July 2020

AUgust 2020

https://www.thetrace.org/features/gun-sales-estimates/

 

[sancho panza]

https://www.thetrace.org/features/gun-sales-estimates/

Wisconsin won by 23,000 votes in 2016

Pennsylvania

[eek]

I'm not betting but why are you posting this stuff

Are you trying to convince yourself that you aren't completely wrong?

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, eek said:

I'm not betting but why are you posting this stuff

Are you trying to convince yourself that you aren't completely wrong?

No,jsut storing my work somewhere in a chronological order as a refernce point