Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

Trump 3.05 SMarkets

[eek]

And once again I think you are wrong - personally you go and vote  to change the  status quo which means votes for Biden.

The problem is that the US is a different place which I don't know well enough to identify trends. We also know the polling industry is dire there which means it's going to be hard to work out what is actually happening.

So the first time I will have any idea of what is going on will be as the rural Florida tallies arrive which was when political betting called it for Trump back in 2016

Edited October 25, 2020 by eek

[sancho panza]

 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Edited October 25, 2020 by sancho panza

[DurhamBorn]

Iv had one bet on this so far,Trump to win Florida.

[sancho panza]

using early voting 50/50=>Wisconsin/Michigan/North Caro/Arizona/Nevada/Florida/Iowa=>10+16+13+11+6+29+6=91

Rep=>Ohio,Texas,Georgia=>18+38+16=72

Dem=>Penn,Minn=>20+10=30

Trump 306-85-20=201

Biden 232+20=252

[sancho panza]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Iv had one bet on this so far,Trump to win Florida.

Good bet that one.I think he looks the likely winner there

[sancho panza]

55 minutes ago, eek said:

And once again I think you are wrong - personally you go and vote  to change the  status quo which means votes for Biden.

The problem is that the US is a different place which I don't know well enough to identify trends. We also know the polling industry is dire there which means it's going to be hard to work out what is actually happening.

So the first time I will have any idea of what is going on will be as the rural Florida tallies arrive which was when political betting called it for Trump back in 2016

point taken ref first point and second.

US polling is worse than here and thats saying something.Creates opportunities tho.

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

using early voting 50/50=>Wisconsin/Michigan/North Caro/Arizona/Nevada/Florida/Iowa=>10+16+13+11+6+29+6=91

Rep=>Ohio,Texas,Georgia=>18+38+16=72

Dem=>Penn,Minn=>20+10=30

Trump 306-85-20=201

Biden 232+20=252

it's amazing how much information is pushed out in the US ahead of election day, compared to other countries where you aren't even allowed to poll potential voters weeks beforehand...

[201p]

On 22/10/2020 at 22:20, sancho panza said:

#3 The Enthusiasm Gap

Another thing that everyone agrees upon is that Trump supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters are.

If you want to have a good laugh, go on Twitter and compare the boundless enthusiasm that we are seeing at Trump rallies to the absolutely anemic enthusiasm that we are witnessing at Biden rallies.

In most elections the candidate with more enthusiastic supporters ends up winning, because enthusiasm is such an important factor in actually getting people to the polls.

 

Like this...

https://uk.reuters.com/news/picture/photos-of-the-week-idUKRTX84UCZ

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/photos/trump-supporters-gather-west-palm-slideshow-wp-195145855/

[The Idiocrat]

4 years ago I bet on Trump to win and, with free bets, managed to average 12-1 return on my cash. The Donald paid for Christmas that year, including kids' presents and all food/booze! It's looking more difficult this time around but I'm going to try again. So 2-1 seems best odds at the mo for him to stay prez (seems to have ticked down slightly this weekend). Florida at 10-11 seems poor value to me. I'll be trying to max the free bets again so if anyone knows of any particularly good offers please do let me know.

Maybe best to wait until nearer the election for better odds?

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

4 years ago I bet on Trump to win and, with free bets, managed to average 12-1 return on my cash. The Donald paid for Christmas that year, including kids' presents and all food/booze! It's looking more difficult this time around but I'm going to try again. So 2-1 seems best odds at the mo for him to stay prez (seems to have ticked down slightly this weekend). Florida at 10-11 seems poor value to me. I'll be trying to max the free bets again so if anyone knows of any particularly good offers please do let me know.

Maybe best to wait until nearer the election for better odds?

I'm waiting till election night.I'm in a different positon to 2016.If the trade is on for me then we'll go,but I may stop short of a full bet,or jsut have a small bet for interest.

On a deeper dig on some of the early voting data,I think the state betting will offer the best returns.

But even then you're talking 3/1.There might be some accumulators avaialable

Betfair is liquid on state betting.I like the odds in Wisconsin/Michigan/Nevada.

On the night you might get some decent odds if a few inital results go against Trump.That may well be my strategy but it also may mean that I don't get any money on.

Difficult to designa  value strategy for this one.

[The Idiocrat]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm waiting till election night.I'm in a different positon to 2016.If the trade is on for me then we'll go,but I may stop short of a full bet,or jsut have a small bet for interest.

On a deeper dig on some of the early voting data,I think the state betting will offer the best returns.

But even then you're talking 3/1.There might be some accumulators avaialable

Betfair is liquid on state betting.I like the odds in Wisconsin/Michigan/Nevada.

On the night you might get some decent odds if a few inital results go against Trump.That may well be my strategy but it also may mean that I don't get any money on.

Difficult to designa  value strategy for this one.

Thanks for that. Do you know which bookies do accumulators on political bets? Ones I'm using don't seem to.

Odds on Trump win seem to have shortened a little again today.

[The Idiocrat]

Some offers (paid in credits though) for new accounts with bookies:

50-1 Trump to win max £1 bet with William Hill & BetVictor (might have to use mobile phone for former) :

https://www.bettingpro.com/politics/how-to-get-50-1-donald-trump-to-win-us-election-at-william-hill

https://www.betvictor.com/en-gb/offer/PC88

9-1 Trump (or Biden) win £5 max bet deposit £20 :

https://www.888sport.com/spt/enhancedodds14.htm?utm_source=aff&utm_medium=casap

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, The Idiocrat said:

Thanks for that. Do you know which bookies do accumulators on political bets? Ones I'm using don't seem to.

Odds on Trump win seem to have shortened a little again today.

I wouldn't have a clue,I tend to bet on the main event. @Democorruptcy might have some ideas but he doesn't bet on politics.My only thought is that you could ask in a High St bookies.I don't really know any of the parameteers for accumulators in general let alone this sphere.

1 minute ago, The Idiocrat said:

Some offers (paid in credits though) for new accounts with bookies:

50-1 Trump to win max £1 bet with William Hill & BetVictor (might have to use mobile phone for former) :

https://www.bettingpro.com/politics/how-to-get-50-1-donald-trump-to-win-us-election-at-william-hill

https://www.betvictor.com/en-gb/offer/PC88

9-1 Trump (or Biden) win £5 max bet deposit £20 :

https://www.888sport.com/spt/enhancedodds14.htm?utm_source=aff&utm_medium=casap

theyre incredible.is that jsut for new accounts?

[nirvana]

Think I'll have £100 on that loon Biden, then I'll be happy about losing my money if Trump pulls it off......

[The Idiocrat]

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I wouldn't have a clue,I tend to bet on the main event. @Democorruptcy might have some ideas but he doesn't bet on politics.My only thought is that you could ask in a High St bookies.I don't really know any of the parameteers for accumulators in general let alone this sphere.

theyre incredible.is that jsut for new accounts?

Yes, new accounts only.

Think you’re right, local bookie might do accumulators, although I doubt I’ll actually go in there.

[sancho panza]

On 25/10/2020 at 22:25, sancho panza said:

using early voting 50/50=>Wisconsin/Michigan/North Caro/Arizona/Nevada/Florida/Iowa=>10+16+13+11+6+29+6=91

Rep=>Ohio,Texas,Georgia=>18+38+16=72

Dem=>Penn,Minn=>20+10=30

Trump 306-85-20=201

Biden 232+20=252

Obviously still more to come in,rural etc points to possibilty of a couple of changes.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

notes

Early vote Turnout much higher than 2016

Proportionately large increase in unaffiliated voters in Minn/Wisc/Iowa.Declien in Mich.

Dubious data in Penn.Methodolgy.

 

Early vote lead for Dems 2016                      Current lead                                Winner

Wisconsin 51.4 vs 36.8=14.2%                40.2 vs 37 =3.2%                             Trump 0.7%

Michigan 38.7 vs 35.8= 2.9%                  42.9 vs 38.1=4.8%                            Trump 0.3%

North Caro 54.7 vs 41.2=13.5%              49.7 vs 44=5.7%                                Trump 3.6%

Arizona         42.9 vs 48.4=-5.5%           49.2 vs 44.8=4.4%                             Trump 3.5%

Nevada         51.7 vs 40=11.7%              47.4 vs 44.3=3.1 %                               Clinton 2.4%

Florida           47.7 vs 45.3=2.4%           48.6 vs 44.7=3.9%                               Trump 1.2%

Iowa               53.3 vs 39.8=13.5%          48.1 vs40.1=8%                                    Trump 9.4%

Ohio               48.2 vs 40=8.2%              41.6 vs 45.8=-4.2%                              Trump 8.1%

Georgia          42.2 va 52.8=-10.6%       44.1 vs 49.2=-5.1%                              Trump 5.1%

Texas             41.7 vs 50.9=-9.2%          38.9 vs 51.9=13%                                Trump 9%

Minnesota     51 vs 34.9=16.1%               47.1 vs 30.1=17%                                 Clinton 1.5%

Pennsylvania 44.3 vs51.2= -6.9%           65.1 vs 27.6=37.5%                            Trump 0.7%

 

Edited October 27, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Edited October 27, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

[sancho panza]

 

Also makes interesting stat that mail in voting has a 2% failure rate.

Edited October 28, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Trump Makes a SURPRISE Push for New England as Biden Calls ANOTHER Lid

 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Mike Smithson backs Biden,calling him a 'near certainty'.

Well that's that then.

Bit in bold/ underlined/red  has to be seen to be believed.

Yowzer.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/27/ive-finally-bet-on-biden-as-next-president-at-a-67-chance/

Ever since the 2020 White House Race started formally ahead of the first primary TV debates in June last year I have been very critical of Joe Biden and never thought that he would get the nomination.

I wrote here many times that it was ridiculous for a man of his age to be seeking such an office and I sort of assumed that something would happen during the primary campaign that would raise doubts about him that would effectively kill his bid off.

I was totally wrong and Biden has got the nomination and has run an effective campaign against Trump and now looks set to win a week tonight.

Until this evening I had not bet on Biden in the national next president markets although I have had quite a few state and spread bets.

My wager this evening was at 1.49 because it is highly likely that over the next few days is price will tighten and tighten and by this time next week his odds could be be 1/10 or tighter.

As far as I can see he looks a near certainty and I’ve had my bet. My main worry is when I will get my winnings because the chances are that the post-election period will be messy with possible legal challenges.

[sancho panza]

Trump moves up in Flroida betting.Even taking an average of last ten polls puts biden on 1% lead.

Without Florida,Joe has to flip Wisc/Mich/Penn and not lose New Hampshire/Nevada

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

My main worry is when I will get my winnings because the chances are that the post-election period will be messy with possible legal challenges.

Said with no irony at all