Political betting thread.......

[The Idiocrat]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Mike Smithson backs Biden,calling him a 'near certainty'.

Well that's that then.

Bit in bold/ underlined/red  has to be seen to be believed.

Yowzer.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/27/ive-finally-bet-on-biden-as-next-president-at-a-67-chance/

Ever since the 2020 White House Race started formally ahead of the first primary TV debates in June last year I have been very critical of Joe Biden and never thought that he would get the nomination.

I wrote here many times that it was ridiculous for a man of his age to be seeking such an office and I sort of assumed that something would happen during the primary campaign that would raise doubts about him that would effectively kill his bid off.

I was totally wrong and Biden has got the nomination and has run an effective campaign against Trump and now looks set to win a week tonight.

Until this evening I had not bet on Biden in the national next president markets although I have had quite a few state and spread bets.

My wager this evening was at 1.49 because it is highly likely that over the next few days is price will tighten and tighten and by this time next week his odds could be be 1/10 or tighter.

As far as I can see he looks a near certainty and I’ve had my bet. My main worry is when I will get my winnings because the chances are that the post-election period will be messy with possible legal challenges.

Is @Bedrag Justesen freelancing as a ghostwriter now? 

[eek]

Mike's son lives in America (California but his business is actually in Nevada and a couple of other states at the moment). His 2 posts regarding places to watch and why are probably a lot more useful

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/29/us-election-night-the-ten-counties-we-need-to-watch-part-one-of-two/

[The Idiocrat]

Odds have shortened again on Trump down to 6/4-7/4.

[sancho panza]

25 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Odds have shortened again on Trump down to 6/4-7/4.

Think that's in response to early voting in florida.Trump wins Flroida and he has a good chsout far better than the 2.84 you get on smarkets/betfair

Florida 1.81 now for Trump.

If Joe doesn't win Florida then he absolutely needs the rust belt

Trump won by 113,000 with 4,617,000 in 2016

 

 

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Wisconsin.2016 Trump won by 20,000 at 1,405,000 votes

50/50

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Trump won by 13,000 with 2,279,000 votes 2016

50/50

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Pennsylvania

Trump won by 46,000 with 2,970,000 votes

50/50

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Arizona won by 89,000 woth 1,252,000 votes 2016

Not looking good.Biden 55/45

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

North Caro  173,000 with 2,362,000 votes 2016

55/45

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Trump won by 447,000 in 2016 with 2,841,000 votes

Looks solid

[sancho panza]

 

Minnesota Clinton won by 44,000 with 1,367,000 votes.

Possible flip.

[sancho panza]

Iowa Trump won by 147,000 with 800,000 votes

Looks solid

[The Idiocrat]

Thanks @sancho panza!  I'd already put a few small bets on particular states based on your excellent comments. If they come in I owe you a pint! 

[sancho panza]

Nevada Clinton won by 27,000 with  539,000 votes

[sancho panza]

Texas Trump won by 1,470,000 with 4,685,000 votes

Very solid for trump.

 

[sancho panza]

Georgia Trump won by 212,000 with 2,089,000 votes

Looks good for Trump,value bet.

 

[sancho panza]

Clinton won by 3,000 with 348,000 votes

Looks good for Biden

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, eek said:

Mike's son lives in America (California but his business is actually in Nevada and a couple of other states at the moment). His 2 posts regarding places to watch and why are probably a lot more useful

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2020/10/29/us-election-night-the-ten-counties-we-need-to-watch-part-one-of-two/

Thankls for that.It's a great article.Interesting he mentions Perry county.Heres the Smithson comment and target smart data

Looks like Republican lead but high unaffiliated turnout.

Perry County, Indiana – early Wednesday morning
Eastern Indiana’s polls close at midnight UK time, and late arriving ballots don’t count. So we’ll get results here pretty quickly.

Perry County is one of the swingiest counties in the US. Back in 2008 it voted for Barack Obama with a 23% margin. In 2016, it went for Trump with a 19% one.

One caveat – we don’t know whether they’ll count in person, mailed, or voted early first. Or indeed, a mixture. What we do know is that Perry is super swingy and is full of people who have switched straight from Obama to Trump.

What to expect? Perry County will likely stay Trump this time around. Indiana is Redder than it was in 2008 or 2012. But the margin matters, because this shows whether rural small town America is behind Trump to the same extent as in 2016.

Also: don’t look just at the shares, but look at the absolute number of voters.

If Trump holds Perry with a margin of 15 points or more, he’ll feel quite confident about his base. If it shrinks below 5 points, then it might be quite an ugly night for the President.'

 

2016 result perry county

Rep 4556 56.6%

Dem 3062 38%

Lib 407 5.1%

St Joseph result 2016

Dems 55,252 46.7%

Reps 52,021 46.5%

Lib 5186 4.6%

Low unaffiliated count

 

St Joseph County, Indiana – early Wednesday morning
St Joseph contains Notre Dame University. In 2016 it was a pretty much dead heat between Trump and Clinton. This county is interesting for two reasons:

Firstly, it’ll give you an indication if the young are coming out in force for Biden. Secondly, South Bend has a large African American population.

Biden needs to do well here: if he’s on target to win with the kind of shares predicted by the polls, he’ll want to stretch Hillary’s 200 vote lead to a 10,000 vote one.

On the other hand, if Trump wins here, then I think we could well see a clear Trump victory in the Electoral College.

 

2016 result Jefferson county

Rep 3930 51.1%

Dem 3541 46.1%

Lib 110 1.4%

Jefferson County, Florida – probably around 1:30 or 2am
This is another of those Obama-Trump counties. It’s on the outskirts of Tallahassee, just at the beginning of the Florida pan-handle. It’s not a well off county: it’s median income is half the US average, at around $35,000. It’s older than average, and more African American than average.

President Trump needs to hang on here if he’s hoping to win Florida; simply, if the suburbs swing against him (and they may not, of course), then these poorer areas will be key to holding on.

2016 result Loudoun

Dem 100,795 55.1%

Rep 69, 749   38.2%

Lib 5674       3.1 %

Loudon County, Virginia – probably around 2:30am
Loudon is part of the rapidly growing DC exurbs, without being expensive or fancy. It has good schools, and is attractive to the middle waged – people not on fat government contracts.

And how did Loudon vote in 2016? Well, it went for Hillary, but by just seven points, and she got 51.5% of the vote. As Loudon votes, so will a host of average suburbs across America.

Don’t just look at the percentages here, look at the absolute number of votes. Is turnout up here? Biden will be looking to clear the 55% mark here and take Loudon by ten points or more. If he can do that, he can feel pretty confident. President Trump, on the other hand, will just want to hold the deficit to the same level as 2016.

 

 

[King Penda]

57 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

Thanks @sancho panza!  I'd already put a few small bets on particular states based on your excellent comments. If they come in I owe you a pint! 

Biden is just a stalking horse his running mate will take over within 12/18 months.have you got any odds on that for me might be worth a flutter

[The Idiocrat]

5 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Biden is just a stalking horse his running mate will take over within 12/18 months.have you got any odds on that for me might be worth a flutter

I haven't seen any published odds on that - probably best to go into a bookie and ask. You can get 6-1 on her to win the 2024 election by the looks. You can get 300-1 on her to win this election, but that seems daft as if Biden pegs it tomorrow she still can't run for prez apparently - it should be Sanders, who came second in the Dem party nomnations, but these are the Democrats so they can probably change the rules on a whim

 

[sancho panza]

Red Eagle slates nate Silver.

3 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

Thanks @sancho panza!  I'd already put a few small bets on particular states based on your excellent comments. If they come in I owe you a pint! 

Good luck.

It's 50/50 for me,but as ever,I'll back the value candidate.

[sancho panza]

On 25/10/2020 at 23:25, sancho panza said:

using early voting 50/50=>Wisconsin/Michigan/North Caro/Arizona/Nevada/Florida/Iowa=>10+16+13+11+6+29+6=91

Rep=>Ohio,Texas,Georgia=>18+38+16=72

Dem=>Penn,Minn=>20+10=30

Trump 306-85-20=201

Biden 232+20=252

My current swing state reckoning

Safeish Rep

Ohio,Iowa,Texas,

Leans Rep

North Caro,Florida,

Close Rep win

Wisconsin,

Safeish Dem

Virginia,New Hampshire,Minnesota,New Mexico,Colorado,

Leans Dem

Nevada,

Close Dem win

Pennsylvania,Arizona

Too close to call-Michigan

 

[sancho panza]

failure rate for postal voting will hit Dems.Particualr problem in close states

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

https://www.nytimes.com/article/battleground-states-counties-trump-biden.html

Pennsylvania

Of the three Northern industrial states that Donald J. Trump flipped in 2016 after they had long voted for Democrats, Pennsylvania is the closest entering the final stretch. With three million mail votes expected statewide, in the first year in which all Pennsylvania voters have that option, full results may not be available for days after Nov. 3.

• Philadelphia: Can Joseph R. Biden Jr. re-energize Democrats’ core supporters, Black voters, after Hillary Clinton’s lackluster showing here in 2016? City officials have been concerned about supporting in-person voting this fall. Philadelphia had to consolidate its usual 830 polling locations into 200 for the state’s primary in June, partly because of a poll worker shortage. It aims to open about 800 in November, but is still short thousands of workers.

• Bucks County: The vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs have been inundated by a blue wave since 2016, but Bucks County, north of the city, remains contested territory.

• Westmoreland County: Mr. Trump won this large county outside Pittsburgh by a bigger margin than any major county in the state. If he pushes his vote share even higher, it may indicate he is turning out enough white voters without college degrees statewide to carry Pennsylvania once again. But voters in larger counties like Westmoreland might find it harder to turn in absentee ballots if they don’t trust the Postal Service; though the State Supreme Court ruled in favor of allowing officials to set up ballot drop boxes, a pending federal case could eliminate that option.

Wisconsin

This is another of the “blue wall” states that Mr. Trump won in 2016, along with Michigan. In polls, Wisconsin is looking slightly better for Mr. Biden than Pennsylvania, but the president still has a path here.

• Waukesha County: The suburbs of Milwaukee historically deliver Republican landslides. G.O.P. voters who were lukewarm about Mr. Trump in 2016 have fallen in line, but Democrats have made inroads and Mr. Biden is tightening the margins. Waukesha is one of the Republican-leaning counties that is bucking a national trend and showing big interest in voting by mail, with more than 91,000 ballot requests as of Monday.

• Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better.

• Dane County: The home of the University of Wisconsin has seen chart-topping turnout for Democrats in recent elections. How much higher can they run up the score to counter Republicans in rural counties? Madison, the county seat and state capital, was among the population centers that most successfully responded to the coronavirus outbreak during a statewide election in April, closing just about a third of voting locations. In November, officials don’t anticipate having to close any. But concerns remain regarding mail-in ballot confusion; the deadlines for ballots to be received are still being fought over in court.

Arizona

Although Mr. Trump won the state by 3.5 percentage points in 2016, he trails Mr. Biden in polls, largely because the state has a smaller share of white voters without college degrees than the Midwest battlegrounds, as well as a larger Latino population.

• Maricopa County: About six in 10 Arizona voters reside in this sprawling county that includes Phoenix. Liberal newcomers and Latinos have powered Democratic victories there since 2016. Both parties are comfortable with mail-in ballots, which three-quarters of Arizona voters have used in recent elections. Rule changes this year let officials start processing mail ballots 14 days before Election Day, which will speed their reporting on election night.

Florida

Elections in Florida are won by running up the score in favorable terrain while losing more closely in hostile precincts. It’s a battle for margins more than for swing voters.

 

 

The state has more experience processing and counting absentee ballots than some others: Nearly one in three ballots were mailed in 2016, and so far 4.5 million voters have requested absentee ballots. But the state’s history of razor-thin elections could mean that common errors on those ballots — missing signatures, mismatched signatures or missed deadlines — could be the subject of legal challenges.

• Miami-Dade County: The biggest county in the state and a Democratic stronghold, it is not a county Mr. Trump will hope to win. But if he can increase his support among Hispanic voters over 2016, particularly non-Cuban Hispanics, it would all but block Mr. Biden’s path to winning the state.

• Sarasota County: With nearly four in 10 residents over 65, this county presents a test case of how much Mr. Biden can eat into Mr. Trump’s support among older Floridians. Four years ago, Mr. Trump carried Florida seniors by 17 percentage points. Recent polls show voters over 65, usually a reliable Republican bloc, evenly split between the candidates.

[sancho panza]

It's worth noting that the Penn early voting data is a small sample.Only 29% of 2016 vote have voted so far compared to 79% in Florida.