Political betting thread.......

[sancho panza]

Trump looking good in the WoW counties with early voting but Dane county looking very good for Dems.

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

One of the few states where Trump was underpolled in 2016.Looks like a potnetial flip.

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Florida looks out of reach for Biden......jsut.Although very close.High levels of recent gun purchases.

Much as you can't rely on any one indicator,early voting data implies Trump is doing marginally better than Biden vs 2016 in pivot counties.

 

 

Edited October 29, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

[201p]

He sure knows how to talk. WE'RE NEVER LOCKING DOWN AGAIN!

And he's one of those "all in" gamblers. He's all in on this one.

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by 201p

[201p]

OK what happens when Trump is elected - but the electoral college doesn't? The odds seem to be pricing in this.

[sancho panza]

It's game on.

Nice to see betdaq getting a decent size market up £5mn as well as Smarkets £12mn,doesn't obviously compare with BetFook £284mn so likely half a big bar by the close.

Final predictions soon wehn I've finished working them out.

[sancho panza]

On 29/10/2020 at 16:19, sancho panza said:

My current swing state reckoning

Safeish Rep

Ohio,Iowa,Texas,

Leans Rep

North Caro,Florida,

Close Rep win

Wisconsin,

Safeish Dem

Virginia,New Hampshire,Minnesota,New Mexico,Colorado,

Leans Dem

Nevada,

Close Dem win

Pennsylvania,Arizona

Too close to call-Michigan

 

FInal predictions from me before the betting begins in earnest.It looks like I'm at odds with the bulk of the polling establishment-my view is much like Brexit,they're not necessarily polling the people who are going to vote which presents real problems.I've included Oregon where I think the Dems are going to struggle but will still win.

I'm roughly in line with Trafalgar,Susequehanna,Insider Advantage and to a lesser extent Rasmussen.At odds with tens of others,not least Nate Silver.

So looks like Trump circa 295 EV's.I suspect the national vote will be Biden +2%

 

Battle ground states

Safe Dem           Leans Dem             Marginal Dem     Too close to call      Marginal GOP     Leans GOP        Safe GOP

Colorado            New Hampshire     Nevada               Michigan(GOP<1%) Pennsylvania     Florida               Texas

Virginia                Oregon                  Minnesota          Arizona(Dem<1%)   Wisconsin          North Carolina  Ohio                  

Maine                                                                                                              Georgia                                        Iowa

New Mexico                                                                                                                                                         Maine CD2

 

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by sancho panza

[Castlevania]

I’ve put a load of bets on for the US Election. List below so I have something to refer to.

£80 @ 1.76 - Republicans - Florida

£40 @ 2.34 - Republicans - Arizona

£50 @ 1.76 - Republicans - Georgia

£10 @ 6.60 - Republicans - Maine

£40 @ 4.70 - Republicans - Michigan

£20 @ 4.50 - Republicans - Minnesota

£10 @ 5.60 - Republicans - Nevada

£8 @ 5.40 - Republicans - New Hampshire

£5 @ 22 - Republicans - New Jersey

£40 @ 2.32 - Republicans - North Carolina 

£50 @ 2.84 - Republicans - Pennsylvania 

£20 @ 1.36 - Republicans - Texas

£9 @ 15 - Republicans - Virginia

£19 @ 4.70 - Republicans - Wisconsin

£20 @ 4.30 - Republicans - Senate Majority

£10 @ 7.20 - Trump - Popular Vote Winner

£50 @ 1.57 - Trump + 140.5 - Electoral College Handicap

 

[sancho panza]

16 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve put a load of bets on for the US Election. List below so I have something to refer to.

£80 @ 1.76 - Republicans - Florida

£40 @ 2.34 - Republicans - Arizona

£50 @ 1.76 - Republicans - Georgia

£10 @ 6.60 - Republicans - Maine

£40 @ 4.70 - Republicans - Michigan

£20 @ 4.50 - Republicans - Minnesota

£10 @ 5.60 - Republicans - Nevada

£8 @ 5.40 - Republicans - New Hampshire

£5 @ 22 - Republicans - New Jersey

£40 @ 2.32 - Republicans - North Carolina 

£50 @ 2.84 - Republicans - Pennsylvania 

£20 @ 1.36 - Republicans - Texas

£9 @ 15 - Republicans - Virginia

£19 @ 4.70 - Republicans - Wisconsin

£20 @ 4.30 - Republicans - Senate Majority

£10 @ 7.20 - Trump - Popular Vote Winner

£50 @ 1.57 - Trump + 140.5 - Electoral College Handicap

 

The ones I like value wise-

1 Trump popular vote winner.Biden has a huge enthusiasm problem and his voters are the msot afraid of viral pneumonia.Dind't realsie it was paying 7.

2 Michigan/New Hampshire/Minnesota/Nevada/Wisconsin are good value.You only need one to pay off to cover your stake.

3 I think Arizona is a decent price for how close it is.

 

edit to add Oregon paying 18.....

Edited November 2, 2020 by sancho panza

[Loki]

I'm a simple man.  I see the option to bet on Trump, i bet on Trump.

[eek]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The ones I like value wise-

1 Trump popular vote winner.Biden has a huge enthusiasm problem and his voters are the msot afraid of viral pneumonia.Dind't realsie it was paying 7.

2 Michigan/New Hampshire/Minnesota/Nevada/Wisconsin are good value.You only need one to pay off to cover your stake.

3 I think Arizona is a decent price for how close it is.

 

edit to add Oregon paying 18.....

If you think Trump will win the popular vote contest you are completely deluded. Biden will pick up millions of wasted votes in California and NY that will carry him over that barrier (heck Hillary won the popular vote).

[spunko]

14 hours ago, Loki said:

I'm a simple man.  I see the option to bet on Trump, i bet on Trump.

How much did you bet? Toying with a £200 bet.

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, spunko said:

How much did you bet? Toying with a £200 bet.

35 quid  don't gamble what you don't want to lose and all that...bit skint but as good as a sure bet as you can get

[lid]

£50 trump popular vote @ 6/1

£50 trump 330+ electoral college votes @ ~9/1 

have to get some popcorn in for later on

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, eek said:

If you think Trump will win the popular vote contest you are completely deluded. Biden will pick up millions of wasted votes in California and NY that will carry him over that barrier (heck Hillary won the popular vote).

I trade the value in bets and run leveraged plays off an underlying thesis.I never said Trump would win the popular vote,I think it's unlikely but at 7/1 I'd have some on it.I've just taken some Oregon at 19/1.Doesn't mean I think it's going to happen.

Trump to win Florida,seems likely,at 1.7 I'd rather not given the value would be in his 2.8 overall EV win price.

One flip side to that trade is that if Trump wins Florida,then he'll likely win the Presidency with either Wisconsin or Michigan where you can back at jsut under 4.

I still think this is a close race,very close.Finding the value in Biden's odds given how poor his internals are in Florida looks hard.

 

 

[spunko]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

35 quid  don't gamble what you don't want to lose and all that...bit skint but as good as a sure bet as you can get

Yeah I have re-thought now. I wanted to make £600 like I did with the Brexit vote but £200 is a lot to lose.

[sancho panza]

28 minutes ago, lid said:

£50 trump popular vote @ 6/1

£50 trump 330+ electoral college votes @ ~9/1 

have to get some popcorn in for later on

330 would be the rust belt plus Colorado/Minnesota plus Nevada/New Hampshire.....I love the optimists..

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, spunko said:

Yeah I have re-thought now. I wanted to make £600 like I did with the Brexit vote but £200 is a lot to lose.

Spunko,jsut a thought here but for trump to win he pretty much needs one of Wisconsin and or Michigan.As above they're trading at 3/1 on Smarkets(I'm not on Betfair but BF will be liquid).Ergo,forget the 2.8 available on a Trump win and maybe consider a trade on Wisconsin.I say that because the early voting data there was pointing to a lower Dem turnout and compared to michigan the more likely of the two to pay out in my eyes.

Decl:My trades will be structured so my biggest bet trump overall EV win takes likely 80-90% of the money,then my smaller more levered trades eg Wisconsin will getmore.I have some small positions in NH and Mich,EV win by 0-80 votes etc.

But as I said,for those looking for a Trump win an excellent proxy is the win in Wisconsin imho.Obviously dyor natch

Edited November 3, 2020 by sancho panza

[Bear Hug]

I've never used betting sites but just now spent £250 in 10 different websites!

Of that:

200 on trump winning

50 on some individual states, house and senate etc

Combination of new joiner benefits gave me:

Bonus 50 on trump winning, 

 ~50 to be refunded if Trump fails

 ~50 for future bets once current ones are settled

 ~100 of stakes for future bets if Trump fails

The freebies are on the conservative side, I lost track a bit

 

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Bear Hug

[Bear Hug]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Spunko,jsut a thought here but for trump to win he pretty much needs one of Wisconsin and or Michigan.As above they're trading at 3/1 on Smarkets(I'm not on Betfair but BF will be liquid).Ergo,forget the 2.8 available on a Trump win and maybe consider a trade on Wisconsin.I say that because the early voting data there was pointing to a lower Dem turnout and compared to michigan the more likely of the two to pay out in my eyes.

Decl:My trades will be structured so my biggest bet trump overall EV win takes likely 80-90% of the money,then my smaller more levered trades eg Wisconsin will getmore.I have some small positions in NH and Mich,EV win by 0-80 votes etc.

But as I said,for those looking for a Trump win an excellent proxy is the win in Wisconsin imho.Obviously dyor natch

There is 10£ refund of losses bonus on joining smarkets.  May as well. 

10 on michigan + 10 on wisc. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Bear Hug

[sancho panza]

Florida looking bad for Biden.Miami Dade was a shocker

 

Red Eagle live,good coverage

 

Edited November 4, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Florida looking good for the Don.Panhandle yet to come in.

Miami Dade Biden got a kicking

2016 Trump 333k Clinton 624k

2020 Trump  472k       Biden 559k

I thought it was a misprint at first.

 

Turn out up a lot eg Hillsborough(includes Tampa)

2016 Trump 307000 Clinton266000

2020 Trump 299,000 Bdien 352,000

 

Sarasota County

2016 Trump 124k Clinton 97

2020 Trump 135k Biden 115k

Edited November 4, 2020 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Penn gets started.

[sancho panza]

North Caro

2,300,000 won it last time

Trump now at 2.24,Biden 1.76

Edited November 4, 2020 by sancho panza