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Political betting thread.......


sancho panza

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1 minute ago, goldbug9999 said:

I'm calling Trump landslide, lets see how that ages.

He's looking like he'll keep north caro,and texas,the big cities are in,it's then off to the rust belt.

If that Florida result is copied then it could be  bad night for Biden.

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Rural Penn declaring

Biden dropping back some.Could win in the cities

County              2020               2016

Lycoming       40k vs 16k        35k vs 13k

Elk                  12k vs 4k          10k vs 4k

Jefferson       17k vs 4k           15k vs 3k

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4 hours ago, lid said:

Shenanigans going down in Pennsylvania

Indeed.Trump has outpolled his last tally,they msut be waiting for a load of the postals to come in.Interesting times.

The 64% turnout figure looks erroneous one way or the other.If there is another 36% to come then it'll be a record turnout and then some for Penn.

Turnout is up considerably.

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Edited by sancho panza
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Milwaukee repoting 98% in.Hard to see where the votes will come from byut I have been sleeping.Biden has really sold off in Milwaukee unless it means 98% of precincts reporting and the remaining 1% is teh psotal ballots.

Trump looks the likely winner given Dane county is in.(madison)

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Edited by sancho panza
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Still teh bulk of Wayne County to come in(Detroit),Washtenshaw and Oakland.Could be either very very close if Trump picks up Genesee(Flint) or more likely it goes Biden.

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On 02/11/2020 at 21:22, sancho panza said:

Safe Dem           Leans Dem             Marginal Dem     Too close to call      Marginal GOP     Leans GOP        Safe GOP

Colorado            New Hampshire     Nevada               Michigan(GOP<1%) Pennsylvania     Florida               Texas

Virginia                Oregon                  Minnesota          Arizona(Dem<1%)   Wisconsin          North Carolina  Ohio                  

Maine                                                                                                              Georgia                                        Iowa

New Mexico                                                                                                                                                         Maine CD2

 

 

Arizona flipped .Too soon on Nevada/Wisconsin/Michigna/Penn/North caro and georgia.

Texas margin down.Trump was saved by the hispanic vote turning out for him apparently.

Minnesota been called by 5%

Florida was substantially higher margin than anyone anticipated.

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Edited by sancho panza
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Biden up in Wisc and Mich.

Looks too late for Trump.Going to show the thesis that if Trump retained Florida and Penn then he'd be locked in.

Turnout up across the board which pretty much made the polling much less accurate.

 

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Reflections soon.

 

Edited by sancho panza
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Reflections:

The 'what went right' and 'what went wrong' bit.

Thesis:

My working thesis was that Trump was rated a 10% chance by pollsters and bookies and that actually  it was a 50/50 race in the Electoral College. Ergo, a lot of the polls were out significantly and there was a viable arbitrage between the odds and the possibility involved.

On reflection,the thesis was a good one and viable as is borne out by the result.Trump looks to have lost the election by a very small margin.

That's speculation and comes with the territory but when there's a binary result,you want to be the one who's paid $25 to be at the table rather than the one who's paid $100.Biden backers have paid a hell of a lot to be in a 50/50 race.


Turnout

Politcal betting becomes hard if turnout skews heavily from mean average. This election saw a 20% or so rise in voter turnout across the battleground states which had myriad effects on the results and the relative value of previously reliable result indicators.

The Candidates

It was too easy to deride Biden as a candidate due to his rather lacklustre primary performance from New Hampshire(he came 6th) all the way to the end.Whilst that was a realistic assessment it did have a tendency to lull Trump bettors into a false sense of security.It was easy to forget that Trump himself was the primary voting motivator for many Democratic and some Republican voters to vote Biden. A detail that was picked up in the polling data during the run in and placed on thread.

Trump has lost votes from only one demographic proportionately-white males.

On reflection,it was easy to overlook the fact that Biden's central weakness was also his central strength in that he gave the anti Trump vote a relatively unobjectionable person to vote for.

Polling

As per thesis, the polling was way out in some states.Given the polls mainly deal with likely voters and generally past vote weight,then a selection of new voters turning out was always going to make the results harder to predict.

Trafalgar/Susquehanna won the day with their consistent predictions of Trump winning Florida,Pennsylvania,Ohio and calling Wisconsin and Michigan as close losses.

Otherwise some of the polls were very far out. RCP average in Wisconsin was +6.7% Biden,Florida was Biden +0.9%,Ohio Trump +0.9%(he won by 8.2%),and there were more.Wide reporting of polls being out 5%.

On reflection,given the rise in turnout,it would have been hard for the pollsters to have any idea of what was coming.

This was part of the thesis that the Trump vote was being miscounted but a crucial misestimation was to think that there could be as many voters motivated by a dislike of Trump as are motivated by a like of Trump.

Early voting data

Early voting data particularly on the Democrat run sites,was a particularly astute predictor of an even race.Surprisingly they didn't reflect the polls at all in key states.

Their use was limited by the fact that during the Covid era,many more people voted early by mail and also turnout was going to be higher in general,which inherently makes it's predictive use of more limited value.

Pivot Counties

A full study of pivot county results will take some time but it does appear if they're usefulness drops when turnout skews even if it is evenly so.

Bet size and placement

Bet size was appropriate and the buying plan was sensible,all done around UK 2200 hrs on the election day.Odds were 3 on average but it was easy to get distracted with state votes given the leverage they offered.The odds hadn't moved much for months and betting last mintue reduces numerous elements of counter party risk.

Although the bulk of the bet was on the main result,the logic behind trading 3 or more individual states at 4 was poor,given that it only takes one loser to negate the advantage of trading the main result which was around the 3 mark.In retrospect precious minutes during the 'busy' period,backing Trump in Wisconsin/Michigan.The tactical thought behind those trades was poor because Trump didn't need them to win mathematically to get to 270.

On reflection,the main event should have been the only market to trade.
 

  • Informative 3
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So Betfair have kept almost all the markets on the US Election open. The narrative in the media is that Biden has won and as such in my opinion the market is somewhat misspriced. 

Anyhow the bet that I think is worth taking is laying the number of electoral college votes that Biden will win. The most he can win is 306 from here. You can lay 300-329 electoral college votes at 1.25. So effectively (before commission) 4/1 that he loses at least one state (other than Nevada). Given that states are still counting; Georgia’s having a full audit; Wisconsin is having a recount; and the Trump campaign are filing multiple lawsuits to try and void the results that to me is a very good risk/reward play.

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2 hours ago, Castlevania said:

So Betfair have kept almost all the markets on the US Election open. The narrative in the media is that Biden has won and as such in my opinion the market is somewhat misspriced. 

Anyhow the bet that I think is worth taking is laying the number of electoral college votes that Biden will win. The most he can win is 306 from here. You can lay 300-329 electoral college votes at 1.25. So effectively (before commission) 4/1 that he loses at least one state (other than Nevada). Given that states are still counting; Georgia’s having a full audit; Wisconsin is having a recount; and the Trump campaign are filing multiple lawsuits to try and void the results that to me is a very good risk/reward play.

Also worth consdiering the following.Trump 270 at 17/1.If psotal ballots in penn get kicked out and any of the allegations in Detroit are true then it's better than the 10 available as belwo for Trump winning.

Sadly,my budget is gone and Betfair charge me 25% commission so I'm out .......

Also below worth maybe laying the Biden states won......

I'm really amazed Smarkets called it so early.Although the CEO has apologised for his white privilege.

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First bit of Pivot county analysis-interesting as it indicates Trump Landslide

 

 

For a taster of the Pivot Counties results,I'd get a clothes peg on your nose.Out of the 23 pivot counties in Wisconsin Biden won two by 1.2% and 2%,Trump held the other 21 by landlside margins in msot cases.These are facts.

Wisconsin has 23 Pivot states from 2016,ie they voted Obama 2008/12,Trump 2016.

https://ballotpedia.org/Pivot_Counties_in_Wisconsin

 

Results are drawn from NYT 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-president.html

When you look at these results and the other pivot counties(I suspect-I saw Trump win them in Florida on the night),you'll see why Trump is going to court.

Below are the 2020 results for pivot counties in Wisconsin

Adams        Trump +28%

Buffalo       Trump +25%

Columbia   Trump +2%

Crawford   Trump +8%

Door           Biden 1.4%

Dunn         Trump +14%

Forest        Trump +31%

Grant         Trump +13%

Jackson     Trump +16%

Juneau       Trump +27%

kenosha     Trump +3%

Lafayette  Trump +14%

Lincoln      Trump +22%

Marquette Trump +27%

Pepin         Trump +27%

Price          Trump +28%

Racine        Trump +4%

Richland     Trump +10%

Sauk           Biden +2%

Sawyer      Trump +14%

Trempealeau Trump +17%

Vernon         Trump +5%

Winnebago Trump +4%

 

 

 

 

Georgia Pivot Counties.

Trump won them too.

 

Baker      Trump +16%

Dooly      Trump +6%

Peach      Trump +5$

Quitman  Trump +12%

Twiggs    Trump +7%

Edited by sancho panza
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Florida .Trump is 3 out of 4 pivot counties

Jefferson   Trump +7%

Pinellas     Biden +0.2%

Monroe     Trump +8%

St Lucie     Trump +2%

 

 

Minnesota ,where Trump was handsomely beaten in teh main poll,he wins 16 out of 19 pivot counties..............

Beltrami         Trump +3%

Blue Earth      Biden +3%

Chippewa      Trump +31%

Clay               Biden +4%

FIllmore         Trump +33%

Freeborn        Trump +16%

Houston         Trump +13%

Itasca              Trump +17%

Kittson            Trump +20%

Koochinging   Trump +21%

Lac Qui parle   Trump +27%

Mahnomen      Trump +1%

Mower             Trump  +5%

Nicollet            Biden +5%

Norman           Trump +16%

Rice                  Trump +0.1%

Swift                Trump +30%

Traverse          Trump +27%

Winona            Trump +13%

 

 

 

 

Edited by sancho panza
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