Political betting thread.......

[Boon]

Looks like Kemi might be out, odds drifting, shame.

Would not be surprised if she decided to cut her losses - ie get into bed with another campaign in exchange for high-ranking job in the next cabinet.

Mordaunt's odds have come back in, maybe a lot of Tugendhats votes have gone for her.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Boon said:

Looks like Kemi might be out, odds drifting, shame.

Would not be surprised if she decided to cut her losses - ie get into bed with another campaign in exchange for high-ranking job in the next cabinet.

Mordaunt's odds have come back in, maybe a lot of Tugendhats votes have gone for her.

Yeah she did well,conservatives were never going to elect someone who's actually conservative.Think she'd have had a chance at the next election,unlike the winning three.

Shame on the Tory MP's that they failed to reflect the views of the membership who the polling would have us beleive would have beaten the winning three in the membership vote.

[sancho panza]

My moeny now goes on a truss win against sunak in the final two.Can't see many Badenoch type conservatives voting for Mordaunt.I suspect Mordaunt's uplift came from Rishi supporters trying to manipulate the final two.His only real chance imho is vs Mordaunt who possibly more unelectable than him.

Also Truss momentum is clearly stronger.

 

edit to add betfair exchange punters taking the same view.Truss looks good for a 100% gain here.I'll stop laying sunak now and move to betting on Liz .

Although the banker bet is laying mordaunt at these prices.might be risky if rishi gets enough votes for mordaunt.

Edited July 19, 2022 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

from guido

Truss it is then imho. 80% return potentially

[sancho panza]

Soem easy returns loming here.Kiwi Labour have a new leader that's even more unelectable than Jackboot Jacinda

ALready showing signs of delusion thinking it wasnt Jackboot's policies to blame for her resignation rather the bigots.

They''ll be a honeymoon where he looks like he has a vague chance which will be buying time but the market is tiny.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/22/new-zealand-labour-caucus-votes-in-chris-hipkins-to-succeed-jacinda-ardern

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

Ron de Santis at 4/1 for US president in 2024 seems a certainty. 

Anyone having a nibble?

 

 

[eek]

2 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Ron de Santis at 4/1 for US president in 2024 seems a certainty. 

Anyone having a nibble?

4/1 is way to low at the moment.

For de Santis to have a chance Trump needs to be removed from the field and at the moment he hasn't been and Trump's supporters will out to vote for him in the primaries.

Also Santis will have to deal with the fall out of Disney utterly screwing him over...

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, eek said:

4/1 is way to low at the moment.

For de Santis to have a chance Trump needs to be removed from the field and at the moment he hasn't been and Trump's supporters will out to vote for him in the primaries.

Also Santis will have to deal with the fall out of Disney utterly screwing him over...

I had to block myself from Betfair because I lost too much, so don't take any tips from me. I can't see Trump beating DeSantis though, at the end of the day he lost to Biden (even if it was through cheating) and they're not going to give him another go.

[eek]

16 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I had to block myself from Betfair because I lost too much, so don't take any tips from me. I can't see Trump beating DeSantis though, at the end of the day he lost to Biden (even if it was through cheating) and they're not going to give him another go.

In normal circumstances I would agree with you but given what has happened to the Republican party over the past 7 or so years a lot of the remaining members are Trump first, Republican second.

A lot of middle of the road former Republican members are now Independent.

[sancho panza]

On 08/04/2023 at 18:20, AlfredTheLittle said:

I had to block myself from Betfair because I lost too much, so don't take any tips from me. I can't see Trump beating DeSantis though, at the end of the day he lost to Biden (even if it was through cheating) and they're not going to give him another go.

I think at the moment Trump beats De Santis handsomely one on one.Mainly because in states where it's open primary,then he'll do better.

De Santis is a great candidate.Currently,I'd put my moeny on Trump winning the n omintaiton versus De Santis.

I'd put moeny on De Santis beating any Dem challenger.

In terms of trump versus Dem challengers I'd be more circumspect with mymoeny depending who hes up agaisnt.

Think Reps win next Presi without  an incredible new Dem candidate

[sancho panza]

I thought Biden looked knackered in 2020 tbf......Trump will have issues with undecideds...De Santis???

[lid]

It'll be another Dominion inspired Biden victory no doubt