Political betting thread.......

[Democorruptcy]

I'm finding it all a bit bizarre. We have the main Tory advisor suggesting they don't represent the rich remainers in London. I would expect Labour to be anti establishment i.e. London and the EU but Corbyn seems to want it blocking no deal. Though Corbyn is trying to sit on the fence to not alienate his Brexit voters. It's like they have exchanged red/blue ties. What the hell are staunch Tory and Labour voters going to do at an election? Can such as Labour Brexit voters that are Thatcher haters bring themselves to vote Tory, or do they have to go Brexit Party? That splits the Brexit vote. The rich remainers who were Tory will have to go Lib Dems, they can't go Labour. 

[jm51]

The libdems could be good for a trade. If they don't fuck up as much as lab/con, their odds will shorten. The question is, will their odds shorten enough to cover the opportunity cost of the wager plus cover the risk of their odds lengthening?

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm finding it all a bit bizarre. We have the main Tory advisor suggesting they don't represent the rich remainers in London. I would expect Labour to be anti establishment i.e. London and the EU but Corbyn seems to want it blocking no deal. Though Corbyn is trying to sit on the fence to not alienate his Brexit voters. It's like they have exchanged red/blue ties. What the hell are staunch Tory and Labour voters going to do at an election? Can such as Labour Brexit voters that are Thatcher haters bring themselves to vote Tory, or do they have to go Brexit Party? That splits the Brexit vote. The rich remainers who were Tory will have to go Lib Dems, they can't go Labour. 

One thing with Tory voters tends to be that they're more relaibly Tory than labour voters are labour.I think the real drop off we'll see is labour voters staying home voting Brexit party.

 

I don't think the Tories will do a deal with BP,even though it would help them.Hence my focus on the Most seats bet.I don't think the Troies will lsoe much of their remainer support from 2017.Most of the hard core remainers jumped ship then imho

Labour will see middle classes go LD and working class voters in the north stay home I suspect or go BP

Tories do a deal with BP,then it could be a Brexit  majority.

 

Allin all,Tories steady,LD's up,Lab down.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Tdog said:

Basically it all depends on whether we leave with no deal on 31/10 thus silencing the BP ... but even then it gets confusing.

If we do leave with no deal on 31/10, then people may think well the Tory party have been financially raping workers to keep house prices inflated and the asset owning class in free money for a decade so i won't be voting Tory ... hence leading to a coalition of the lefty traitors who support the globalists, banks, corporations and neoliberals who have been blatantly fucking over workers for the last 2 decades. 

Only winners i can see are the LibDems picking up huge numbers of seats and the SNP who should get another referendum ... though they don't seem to realise not respecting this referendum could backfire on them if they win.

 

Wihtout getting into my view-as this is about maiking money-that's the reason I won't vote for them and is possibly the reason tehy lsot the 40-50 age group for the first time in 2017.Record numbers of 40 year olds renting.Including me n Mrs P.

Problem with LD's picking up seats is that they have to get enough votes to win in FPTP.Hence I see the tories keeping a few seats they might be expected to lsoe.

Friends in scotland who are unionists are saying to me they'd vote leave ref the UK next time.Could be interesting.BJ is hated up there apparently(and that was from a Tory I know who lives in Galsgow)

34 minutes ago, jm51 said:

The libdems could be good for a trade. If they don't fuck up as much as lab/con, their odds will shorten. The question is, will their odds shorten enough to cover the opportunity cost of the wager plus cover the risk of their odds lengthening?

 

I'll be using lower LD odds to wager on the tory msot seats /maj.

LD's jsut not viable for msot seats or maj,same as lab.to me it's all about the tory msot seats price at the mo.,

Thinking about trying to arb tory maj and no overall.

[jm51]

No way I'd let a bet on the libdems run to the wire. fptp has them always a bridesmaid no matter how well they seem to be doing on the run up. Make a bet, odds shorten and trade out for a guaranteed profit well before election day.

 

[sancho panza]

13 minutes ago, jm51 said:

No way I'd let a bet on the libdems run to the wire. fptp has them always a bridesmaid no matter how well they seem to be doing on the run up. Make a bet, odds shorten and trade out for a guaranteed profit well before election day.

 

thats the sort of thing I'd look at.,Any particualr bet /market you're looking at?

[jm51]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

thats the sort of thing I'd look at.,Any particualr bet /market you're looking at?

 It doesn't really matter what the market is, as long as it is liquid and you have an opinion on which way the price will move. If you are correct, ride it until it starts to change direction and then get out fast. If you were wrong from the start, get out immediately, hesitation when getting out of a bad trade is what causes the big losses. 

If you've ever fancied day trading, The Betfair horse races are as good a simulation as any. Biggest difference is that at some point, the race will start and you need to be gone by then. Start with £20, make minimum bets on the blue (to win) side, favs and 2nd favs only. See how long the £20 lasts you. When it's gone, work out what you did wrong and try again. If it takes longer to lose the next £20, you're in with a chance. Not many have the talent for that type of trading, even fewer have the discipline. If it is for you though, it pays well. £60k+ isn't unheard of. Tax free as well. Not bad for playing a game of Frogger.

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

One thing with Tory voters tends to be that they're more relaibly Tory than labour voters are labour.I think the real drop off we'll see is labour voters staying home voting Brexit party.

 

I don't think the Tories will do a deal with BP,even though it would help them.Hence my focus on the Most seats bet.I don't think the Troies will lsoe much of their remainer support from 2017.Most of the hard core remainers jumped ship then imho

Labour will see middle classes go LD and working class voters in the north stay home I suspect or go BP

Tories do a deal with BP,then it could be a Brexit  majority.

 

Allin all,Tories steady,LD's up,Lab down.

Am I right in assuming you haven't included the Brexit Party in the last bit because you are only looking at most seats and don't think they will win one?  

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, jm51 said:

 It doesn't really matter what the market is, as long as it is liquid and you have an opinion on which way the price will move. If you are correct, ride it until it starts to change direction and then get out fast. If you were wrong from the start, get out immediately, hesitation when getting out of a bad trade is what causes the big losses. 

If you've ever fancied day trading, The Betfair horse races are as good a simulation as any. Biggest difference is that at some point, the race will start and you need to be gone by then. Start with £20, make minimum bets on the blue (to win) side, favs and 2nd favs only. See how long the £20 lasts you. When it's gone, work out what you did wrong and try again. If it takes longer to lose the next £20, you're in with a chance. Not many have the talent for that type of trading, even fewer have the discipline. If it is for you though, it pays well. £60k+ isn't unheard of. Tax free as well. Not bad for playing a game of Frogger.

 

I wish I'd known.

16 years 'wasted' only doing it when the race turned in running!

 

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, jm51 said:

 It doesn't really matter what the market is, as long as it is liquid and you have an opinion on which way the price will move. If you are correct, ride it until it starts to change direction and then get out fast. If you were wrong from the start, get out immediately, hesitation when getting out of a bad trade is what causes the big losses. 

If you've ever fancied day trading, The Betfair horse races are as good a simulation as any. Biggest difference is that at some point, the race will start and you need to be gone by then. Start with £20, make minimum bets on the blue (to win) side, favs and 2nd favs only. See how long the £20 lasts you. When it's gone, work out what you did wrong and try again. If it takes longer to lose the next £20, you're in with a chance. Not many have the talent for that type of trading, even fewer have the discipline. If it is for you though, it pays well. £60k+ isn't unheard of. Tax free as well. Not bad for playing a game of Frogger.

 

 

 

I was thinking more LD seat count or over/under25.5.

LD's will pick up seats of both Tory n Lab.

 

Edited September 11, 2019 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I wish I'd known.

16 years 'wasted' only doing it when the race turned in running!

 

 

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Am I right in assuming you haven't included the Brexit Party in the last bit because you are only looking at most seats and don't think they will win one?  

Yeah DM,can't see them winning a seat under FPTP.Under some form of PR they or a well led Ukip would be a real threat,but the political elite here like to keep things in their favour for as long as possible.

I'm still of the opinion that the Tories really need a deal with the BP but historically,they're not that sort of player although CUmmings is nobody's fool.I can't see them standing aside but I could possibly see them giving a couple of safe seats to Farage and one or two others as long as they turn tory

Msot seats loks the best value at the mo as I can't foresee a scenario where they won't beat Lab/LD's.COrbyn is awful(not commenting on his politics),LD@s will surge as middle class voters swing behind them but not enough to make a big difference.I can see the Tories making some gains in three and four way splits-not that there's many of those.

Tory maj is a riskier play but if the MSM keep up the onslaught the odds might be tempting

You got a view on the BP/Tory most seats/Lab stay at home issues?

 

[Democorruptcy]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

Yeah DM,can't see them winning a seat under FPTP.Under some form of PR they or a well led Ukip would be a real threat,but the political elite here like to keep things in their favour for as long as possible.

 

On ToS I was always surprised when some people really seemed to think UKIP were going to win the election. I posted the betting that centred around whether they would win a seat or not!

Betfair's Brexit Party under or over 0.5 is close betting. The problem is how many seats they hand to the Lib Dems by nicking Tory votes.

It seems Cummings won't agree to Farage's offer of a deal.

One thing about most seats is whether Labour and the Lib Dems do a deal not to stand against each other in some seats.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

On ToS I was always surprised when some people really seemed to think UKIP were going to win the election. I posted the betting that centred around whether they would win a seat or not!

Betfair's Brexit Party under or over 0.5 is close betting. The problem is how many seats they hand to the Lib Dems by nicking Tory votes.

It seems Cummings won't agree to Farage's offer of a deal.

One thing about most seats is whether Labour and the Lib Dems do a deal not to stand against each other in some seats.

I see that as as big an issue of whether teh Tories manage some sort of deal with the BP.

The way I see it,the LD's won't.They were scarred by the experience within the coalition and the price they paid for doing it.

Noone -and I really mean noone-can afford to be tainted by association with Corbyn politcally.He's useless,he was only competitive against May because she was so as bad as/worse than him.Swinson probably knows that the good ship JC is sinking,she won't do a deal with him.Possibly the Greens.

The outlook for the Tory/BP is doubtful.I've said before,the tories are too arrogant to consider a deal historically,but I think BJ is a pragmatist and quite simply allowing some sort of deal-either letting a few BPers have runs at decent seats up north/midlands or coopting the BP into the Tory party(probably the preferred route for many Tories who think they own the country)

 

If BP stand then as you say,it's another reason to put money on LD's seat count.But I'm not sure in terms of liquidty.

I think the one good thing at the mo is that the odds of a Tory maj/most seats are quite far out and appear good value.LD's to get 40+ seats also looks good value.

I have zero interest in trying to predict how badly Corbyn will do.I think there could be some seats with 5000 lab majorities that go either LD or tory(only going Tory due to Tory vote holding and LD's hoovering up middle class remainers.)

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I see that as as big an issue of whether teh Tories manage some sort of deal with the BP.

The way I see it,the LD's won't.They were scarred by the experience within the coalition and the price they paid for doing it.

Noone -and I really mean noone-can afford to be tainted by association with Corbyn politcally.He's useless,he was only competitive against May because she was so as bad as/worse than him.Swinson probably knows that the good ship JC is sinking,she won't do a deal with him.Possibly the Greens.

I agree Corbyn is a big stumbling block to the Lib Dems doing a deal. Also as long as Labour try to stay on the fence about Brexit there isn't much point in the Lib Dems doing  a deal with them.

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I agree Corbyn is a big stumbling block to the Lib Dems doing a deal. Also as long as Labour try to stay on the fence about Brexit there isn't much point in the Lib Dems doing  a deal with them.

Hadn't considered that aspect of it.

[Democorruptcy]

15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Hadn't considered that aspect of it.

I think it's about who blinks first. If Labour go Remain that might mean the Lib Dems will do a deal with them. Then the Tories might have to do a deal with the Brexit Party.

[crashmonitor]

41 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I agree Corbyn is a big stumbling block to the Lib Dems doing a deal. Also as long as Labour try to stay on the fence about Brexit there isn't much point in the Lib Dems doing  a deal with them.

Of course Corbyn gives the impression his position is crystal clear and he is not on the fence. Only he and the Abbott seem to understand it.

 

Edited September 12, 2019 by crashmonitor

[Zanu Bob]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/liberal-democrats-almost-level-with-labour-in-election-poll-shows-191144718.html

The Liberal Democrats are closing in on Labour in the latest polls.

The Lib Dems (20%) are now only 4% behind Labour (24%) when it comes to Westminster voting intention, according to the The Kantar TNS poll.

The Tories were out in front with a comfortable 38% and the Brexit Party was growing with 7%.

Both the Conservatives and Labour lost four points, while the other parties gained or remained the same in relation to the previous numbers from August 15-19.

The new poll shows results from September 5 - 9.

Lib Dems have also been gaining new MPs recently with former Conservative Philip Lee surprising everyone when he crossed the floor to sit with his new party during Prime Minister’s Questions on September 3.

Former Labour politicians Chuka Umunna, Angela Smith and Luciana Berger, who were also members of the Change UK party, joined the Lib Dems in the last few months.

The party has also positioned itself firmly as the no Brexit party after it emerged this week members would campaign to revoke Article 50.

READ MORE YAHOO NEWS HERE

Why it’s time to take the Liberal Democrats seriously again

The Guardian view on Boris Johnson and the crown: a clear abuse of power

Boris Johnson avoids MP questions about misleading Queen to appear on Facebook

Libe Dems leader Jo Swinson admitted she’d cancel Brexit if she was elected prime minister with a majority.

She told the Guardian: “Whenever the election comes, our position is clear and unequivocal.

“A majority Liberal Democrat government would not renegotiate Brexit; we would cancel it by revoking Article 50 and remaining in the European Union.”

 

There are likely to be further shifts in the polls in coming weeks.

The Prime Minister has said he plans to remove the UK from the EU on October 31 despite legislation that states he needs to delay the withdrawal date.

The Tories are also heading to the UK Supreme Court to challenge a ruling from Scottish judges Boris Johnson’s decision to prorogue Parliament was “unlawful”.

A panel of nine justices will hear the case, led by Lady Hale, president of the Supreme Court, and they are likely to make a ruling next week.

The Supreme Court is also expected to consider a similar case brought in England by businesswoman Gina Miller, in which High Court judges said it was not a matter for the courts.

And it may also consider a legal challenge in Belfast that argued the Government’s Brexit strategy will damage the Northern Ireland peace process.

The ruling will be delivered on Thursday morning and would have to be heard by the Court of Appeal in Belfast, possibly over the weekend, before potentially being heard at the Supreme Court on Tuesday.

[sancho panza]

Quick look at the odds and little has changed.Awaiting BJ's deal.If BJ's deal gets through then I suspect the BP will be running,making no overall maj the play at 1.7,would look good value in those circumstances.

 

Lab most seats at 5 looks a sell to me.

 

[sancho panza]

Bernie shows us the big risk of putting money to work this far out re health issues.Particualrly with such an old field.Still can't believe the Dems are running with Biden/Warren who are sure to lose imho

[Democorruptcy]

On 05/10/2019 at 06:05, sancho panza said:

Quick look at the odds and little has changed.Awaiting BJ's deal.If BJ's deal gets through then I suspect the BP will be running,making no overall maj the play at 1.7,would look good value in those circumstances.

If BJ's deal does get through, do you think there will be an election before 2022? Won't things calm down? Turkey's don't vote for Christmas?

27/1 year of next election being the 2022 it's supposed to be.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836

[sancho panza]

On 06/10/2019 at 14:35, Democorruptcy said:

If BJ's deal does get through, do you think there will be an election before 2022? Won't things calm down? Turkey's don't vote for Christmas?

27/1 year of next election being the 2022 it's supposed to be.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132099836

I never make political bets that far out.I follow your logic though and at that price there's value in it imho.

Agree with you BJ will have a real issue getting corbyn to go for it,whatever he says.

.Much as they bleat on,they have polling that tells thems what's coming.And it's going to be a bloodbath for labour.

Big possibility is SNP and Libs both voting for election.But LD's only have19 seats.

 

here's the maths as I see it.2/3rds long way off.

https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/

will vote for early election after a brexit deal

Tories 288

LD's 19 (early election will suit LD's as they'll take labour remainers)

SNP 35 (will do well off labour)

Plaid 4 (will do well off labour)

Greens 1

 

Against election

Lab 245

Independent 35

 

 

Edited October 10, 2019 by sancho panza

[Democorruptcy]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I never make political bets that far out.I follow your logic though and at that price there's value in it imho.

 

FTSE just gone very strong on a soft Brexit. Builders &, banks up a lot.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

FTSE just gone very strong on a soft Brexit. Builders &, banks up a lot.

Tells you all you need to know. They are not going to stop importing people. No matter what. 

Traitorous twats. 

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, One percent said:

Tells you all you need to know. They are not going to stop importing people. No matter what. 

Traitorous twats. 

I still wouldn't be able to put any money on whether BJ is aiming for a deal or a no deal.Only person who konows is Cummings.

There's a chane BJ knows this deal won't get rhough parliament or the EU.There's a chance he knows it will.