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Political betting thread.......


sancho panza

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12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I still wouldn't be able to put any money on whether BJ is aiming for a deal or a no deal.Only person who konows is Cummings.

There's a chane BJ knows this deal won't get rhough parliament or the EU.There's a chance he knows it will.

There's no chance that any deal will get through and he knows it.

This is just exposing people for what they are, for the forth coming election and the opposition to an actual brexit won't expose themselves if they think they are going to lose.

Imagine a deal that the EU like.... Well nobody over here is going to vote for it.

Imagine a deal that the Brexiters like... Well nobody in the EU is going to support such a deal.

Imagine a deal that the remoaners like... Staying in the EU and revoking article 50. Well they won't have any MP's after the election in parliament to carry it through.

 

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  • 1 month later...
17 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I've got £2 on labour majority at 40 to 1

The downside to that bet is that if they did get in your winnings would be in £ which would rapidly be going down the toilet.

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9 hours ago, Castlevania said:

The downside to that bet is that if they did get in your winnings would be in £ which would rapidly be going down the toilet.

xD oh the irony....

 

betfair showing tory msot seats at 1.07............hardly worth the bother...

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics

tory maj at 1.6????

good value at 2.8 no overall maj

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.136297311

If I was able to bet on betfair,I'd consider buidling a decent stake on that.for some reason though,I jsut don't feel like getting involved in this election this far out..........

all it needs is the LD's to take a few tory seats and the tories not to do as well as anticpated from the BP stand down.

 

as per my posts elsewhere,in my acquaintance seeing a lot of former middle class Jezza fans voting LD,BP/Ukip voters refusing to vote tory/remainers voting tactically.fptp is wide open to being gamed.

i see tories losing scottish seats and whilst they should get an uplift in england,I'm not so convinced -people like me(Ukip/BP voters) are necessarily going to go out and vote for them.interesting times.

Edited by sancho panza
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On 22/11/2019 at 18:05, sancho panza said:

I cant say for the rest of the country,but i can say for where i work.100% UNITE union membership.Almost all of them are voting Tory.Some have voted Labour all their lives.I have lots of ex miner,ex railwayman,ex steel worker friends around the north,almost all voting Tory.One lad his dad is 89 and ex face worker in a colliery.Was an ex shop steward.He and his wife voting Tory.Most is Brexit related,but not all.They hate Corbyn.They also hate the fact they do nothing for people who actually work.The anger is incredible.People know very well the reason wages are low is Labour opened the door to eastern Europe.They know the reason they cant get in the doctors is due to massive immigration.Labour will still get the support of people who get their money from the state.Lifestyle benefit claiments and a lot of the lefty public sector middle income,but they are going to get rimmed among the working working class.People up here are actually chasing Labour people away from their houses.These are ex Labour voters.

There is a chance Boris drops a massive gaff,or voting patterns help Labour,but from what im seeing here in the North East they are going to suffer a huge defeat.

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On 25/11/2019 at 12:05, kibuc said:

Weighted by likelihood to vote? C'mon, that some high-class bullshit.

In terms of gmabling on political outcomnes,previous hx of voting is improtant.

it does mean that sometimes eg Brexit/Trump there are some super arb opportunities if you can identify a cohort that's going to vote,that traditionally doesn't,but generally,experince teaches that past vote weighting is normally a better indicator than not.

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On 24/11/2019 at 12:47, DurhamBorn said:

I cant say for the rest of the country,but i can say for where i work.100% UNITE union membership.Almost all of them are voting Tory.Some have voted Labour all their lives.I have lots of ex miner,ex railwayman,ex steel worker friends around the north,almost all voting Tory.One lad his dad is 89 and ex face worker in a colliery.Was an ex shop steward.He and his wife voting Tory.Most is Brexit related,but not all.They hate Corbyn.They also hate the fact they do nothing for people who actually work.The anger is incredible.People know very well the reason wages are low is Labour opened the door to eastern Europe.They know the reason they cant get in the doctors is due to massive immigration.Labour will still get the support of people who get their money from the state.Lifestyle benefit claiments and a lot of the lefty public sector middle income,but they are going to get rimmed among the working working class.People up here are actually chasing Labour people away from their houses.These are ex Labour voters.

There is a chance Boris drops a massive gaff,or voting patterns help Labour,but from what im seeing here in the North East they are going to suffer a huge defeat.

Have to say, I saw the 1.4 available for try msot seats and would have taken that a little nearer the event.likely won't put moeny on.

 

think a ot of ex lab are going to vote tory for this one.

not that they'll do it in the one after,I think the tories will get attacked from right (and I don'tmean Farage but soemthing else more organised)and left thereafter.the days of the two party state appear to be fading.no bad thing

 

decl-i wont be voting this time,

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On 24/11/2019 at 12:47, DurhamBorn said:

I cant say for the rest of the country,but i can say for where i work.100% UNITE union membership.Almost all of them are voting Tory.Some have voted Labour all their lives.I have lots of ex miner,ex railwayman,ex steel worker friends around the north,almost all voting Tory.One lad his dad is 89 and ex face worker in a colliery.Was an ex shop steward.He and his wife voting Tory.Most is Brexit related,but not all.They hate Corbyn.They also hate the fact they do nothing for people who actually work.The anger is incredible.People know very well the reason wages are low is Labour opened the door to eastern Europe.They know the reason they cant get in the doctors is due to massive immigration.Labour will still get the support of people who get their money from the state.Lifestyle benefit claiments and a lot of the lefty public sector middle income,but they are going to get rimmed among the working working class.People up here are actually chasing Labour people away from their houses.These are ex Labour voters.

There is a chance Boris drops a massive gaff,or voting patterns help Labour,but from what im seeing here in the North East they are going to suffer a huge defeat.

Over the last 20 years Labour have changed from being the party of the working man to the not working hard public sector woman (mainly).

If you are not on benefits or work in public funded jobs then theres more reasons to *NOT* vote Labour and few for.

Thatchers died ~5 years ago. That bogey woman has long gone.

Cunbin, being a commie traitor, does not go down well. Shipping up a Southern woman to stand in Northern seats does not work.

As far a I can work out COns strategy is not to do much, bat promise to not icnrease spending. Boris is just kissing babies n patting dogs.

Compare that to Cuntbins international brigade (left) left a daft 70yo teenager and pissing more money away on public sector.

Mix that in with Brexit and the stupid high level of migrants.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Has anyone put bets on then? I'm considering Tory minority at 9 to 1.

Not seeing any support for Lib Dems round here, but the amount of Labour support is worrying in a Tory stronghold. 

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On 30/11/2019 at 12:14, spunko said:

Has anyone put bets on then? I'm considering Tory minority at 9 to 1.

Not seeing any support for Lib Dems round here, but the amount of Labour support is worrying in a Tory stronghold. 

It's hard looking for value.But I like the look of that bet Spunko.

Looking at the constituencies,soem Tory marginals may go any which way.

For me the key at the minute would be in laying outright tory success so either backing tory most seats or hung parliament.

Suspect the LD's will refuse to crown Corbyn king.

No money on as I'm effectiveyl banned on betfair by betfair premium.And I dont' see enough value anywhere to get involved.

Could be a very unpredictable outcome if the remainers gang up on the 1%

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http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/30/raab-in-trouble-whilst-labour-are-on-course-to-increase-their-majority-in-top-tory-target-seat/

image.png.e2aed003b9d596ffc59bf280eb4595af.png

image.png.ab64404690a3deb27c12a568b9344a9b.png

Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority in his seat in 2017 is now only leading by 5% and then there’s Labour on course to increase their majority in the top Tory target seat of Portsmouth South.

Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate? The only joy there will be for Boris Johnson is that Deltapoll shows that David Gauke and Dominic Grieve are on course to lose in their respective seats which isn’t much comfort for the Tories.

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Just been on ladbrokes and tory maj is 4/9 and no overall is 2/1.You could hammer the cash on and profit if tory maj occurs.Hedge with no overall..

I think the Tories made a major mistake pushing Farage out.

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/event/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-general-election/225280407/all-markets

Edited by sancho panza
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9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/11/30/raab-in-trouble-whilst-labour-are-on-course-to-increase-their-majority-in-top-tory-target-seat/

image.png.e2aed003b9d596ffc59bf280eb4595af.png

image.png.ab64404690a3deb27c12a568b9344a9b.png

Tonight sees a plethora of constituency polling by Deltapoll, I’ve chosen the two results that are eye catching. Dominic Raab who had a 42% majority in his seat in 2017 is now only leading by 5% and then there’s Labour on course to increase their majority in the top Tory target seat of Portsmouth South.

Are the Tories really on course for a majority if these two constituency polls are accurate? The only joy there will be for Boris Johnson is that Deltapoll shows that David Gauke and Dominic Grieve are on course to lose in their respective seats which isn’t much comfort for the Tories.

I'm suspicious of the Raab one. I can't see any reason for his support to go so low, even if the Labour candidate is very good.

That said, I do think we're heading for another coalition. Boris' failure to do a deal with BXP will come back to bite him. I've put a 9/1 bet on now on Bet365 for Tory minority, as I had some credit anyway.

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12 minutes ago, spunko said:

I'm suspicious of the Raab one. I can't see any reason for his support to go so low, even if the Labour candidate is very good.

That said, I do think we're heading for another coalition. Boris' failure to do a deal with BXP will come back to bite him. I've put a 9/1 bet on now on Bet365 for Tory minority, as I had some credit anyway.

It's more of an indicator that things may not be as simple as Cummings thought they would be.

I'm a decent example in that whilst my background,situation in life should make me a Tory,I won't vote if there's no BP/Ukip candidate.A lot of the Tories of my acquanitance have this rather rose tinted view of hard right/Brexit voters as being on loan to the the smaller parties from the tories.That jsut isn't the case.

Raab is merely suffering from tactical voting.LD down,Lab dwn,tory remainers.

At the end of the day,our electoral system is absurd from a mathematical and democratic point of view.For years we were assured by the parliamentary elite/troughers that First past the post protected us from coaltions and therfore reform wasn't needed.

I suspect we may see the Tories line up behind reform given that a joint BP/Ukip/Tory majority would have been assured under a decent form of PR

Edited by sancho panza
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9 minutes ago, spunko said:

I'm suspicious of the Raab one. I can't see any reason for his support to go so low, even if the Labour candidate is very good.

That said, I do think we're heading for another coalition. Boris' failure to do a deal with BXP will come back to bite him. I've put a 9/1 bet on now on Bet365 for Tory minority, as I had some credit anyway.

A deal might have bought people like me on board.

Tory parliamentary party is run by people with little life expereicne outside of oxbridge/public school/central office.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 01/12/2019 at 19:28, sancho panza said:

It's more of an indicator that things may not be as simple as Cummings thought they would be.

I'm a decent example in that whilst my background,situation in life should make me a Tory,I won't vote if there's no BP/Ukip candidate.A lot of the Tories of my acquanitance have this rather rose tinted view of hard right/Brexit voters as being on loan to the the smaller parties from the tories.That jsut isn't the case.

Raab is merely suffering from tactical voting.LD down,Lab dwn,tory remainers.

At the end of the day,our electoral system is absurd from a mathematical and democratic point of view.For years we were assured by the parliamentary elite/troughers that First past the post protected us from coaltions and therfore reform wasn't needed.

I suspect we may see the Tories line up behind reform given that a joint BP/Ukip/Tory majority would have been assured under a decent form of PR

I was a Tory. Gave them one last chance in 2017.

Abstention from me as I'm in a Tory seat.

I don't understand tactical voting. Vote for who you want or don't vote if you can't.

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11 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

I was a Tory. Gave them one last chance in 2017.

Abstention from me as I'm in a Tory seat.

I don't understand tactical voting. Vote for who you want or don't vote if you can't.

I think there are a lot of people like you and I.I was really teed off that my chocie was to spoil or abstain.Luckily,the local Ukip lady is standing where I live,which I only found out when the Mrs asked me to post her Tory vote off.

Said lady is a lovely old dear and might even retain ehr deposit without a Brexit party candidate.

needless to say the Tories are standing a toff from London who has no shame listing ehr address as Putney on the ballot.

I think turnout could be lower than people think.

13 hours ago, Tdog said:

This seems like a good bet, Liberals to get under 40.5 seats ... 5/6.

If i was to put my head above the parapet id say Tories get a few more seats  ... Labour lose circa 20 seats, and the Libs to add 8-10.

Could they really get over 41 with that thing in charge?

image.thumb.png.aa23453b06746631f78f881a95cd7417.png

That's a super bet.I saw Tory minority at 15/1 yesterady which also strikes me as a value play.

I'd say that's barn door.

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Betfair quoting 12/1 Tories under 300.

 

I'm steering clear of putting any big money bets on given it's first past the psot and the Brexit issue could skew multiple seats.

Read the other day that 25% of UK seats have majorities less than 10%.

 

Be careful out there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pIkkzDagsY

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-marginal-seats-2019-tactical-vote-constituencies-close-a9214371.html

' And there are more marginal seats than usual up for grabs this year because so many constituency results were very close in 2017, with 51 having a majority of less than 2 per cent and almost a quarter less than 10 per cent. '

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6 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Im thinking a mere £5 on the Libs to get under 40.5 seats and 3/1 on a 60-65% turnout, on the basis those that get back home when its dark may well not be bothered to go back out. It was 68% turnout last time so not a huge number needed who cant be bothered.

On the other hand its winter with nowt to do .. so might as well go and vote. 

to be fair,I am someone who likes a punt to matter to me.Since I got booted off betfair,I find it really hard to build a position with the high st bookies,as they can be really unpredicatble whether they'll take your moeny.Some of the less liquid markets and £10 can soak up what they'll give.

I look for value.Upthread,I saw Tory msot seat as value at 1.4 a month back.Now 1/25.

That LD under 40 seats is a great value bet,possibly the best I've seen.It jsut won't be that lqiuid.If I could I'd wager megha bucks(to me) on that.

Looking at Betfair,punters have only wagered £12mn on next govt and £7mn on most seats,the two most liquid marekts thsu far,so a lot of the big money staying away.

LD's under/over 25.5,you can get 7.2,but it's thin.

Torunout lower end of the 60's is likely but under 60 and BF exchange will give you 8/1.

 

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6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Betfair quoting 12/1 Tories under 300.

 

I'm steering clear of putting any big money bets on given it's first past the psot and the Brexit issue could skew multiple seats.

Read the other day that 25% of UK seats have majorities less than 10%.

 

Be careful out there

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_pIkkzDagsY

If you put in £20 max on some of these, you're pretty much guaranteed to beat the bookies.

 

Spunko's top tip for today is Con / BXP coalition at 33/1. This isn't as far flung as it seems, if the Tories get 325 seats , which is perfectly possible, they'll need the BXP to get them across the line assuming they win 1 seat of course (I think BXP will win 3-5 seats).

Ask yourself which is more likely: Tories to get less than 326 seats, or BXP to get at least 1?

I'd say the former, so have placed a few bets on the Tories getting buttfucked.

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