Political betting thread.......

[spunko]

I got kicked off betfair for "failed ID verification" even though I had been verified for ages. I think they just ban you if they make a number of losses in a certain period. I'm not saying I'm a gambling high flyer or anything, total payout was only a few hundred quid.

[Hardhat]

22 minutes ago, spunko said:

I think they just ban you if they make a number of losses in a certain period.

They 100% do this. All the bookies do.

[Dogtania]

Ok thanks, that makes sense.  Used to be all exchange and the professional gamblers were treated to champage hampers and days out (not me!). I did get my account locked once for taking advantage of a poorly thought out promotion but got reinstated a few days later (iirc I made a modest few hundred but there were some people that really rinsed it i.e 10's of K and ended up in court - not sure who took to court but at least one person back then had to sign a non disclosure, it was definitely BF's fault)

[sancho panza]

17 hours ago, Dogtania said:

@sancho panza how did you get the boot from BF if you don't mind divulging.  Value bets on the sportsbook or something more sinister?  Remember when it was just an exchange and as a result no real chance of being kicked off

I got hit by Betfair premium.

I'd previosuly trialled a system of sports betting on football outcomes used up a lot of £1 bets on 200+ events..A few years later,discovered politcal betting.Made some largish bets(for me) on Brexit,Trump,Italian ref,and then every election until Stoke central(won some lost less).After which they told I qulaified for betfair primum.

Because of the way I bet,ie rarely and heavily on one or two events,then losing 20% of my winnings and getting 100% of my losses,it's jsut not viable for me.

 

Edit to add-they have a special team that tracks people dodging Premium charges,so can't use a family member.Still trying to work a way round it.

 

https://medium.com/@caanberry/betfair-premium-charge-what-is-it-how-its-calculated-4830605d58b3

To qualify for Betfair premium charge you need to meet all of the following criteria (at the same time).

If, at any point, you no longer fit that criteria you will stop paying premium charge until you do again. Reasonable enough.

So, the criteria is to have money matched on more than 250 sports markets over the lifetime of your account.

To be in overall profit, and for your generated commission charges to be less than 20% of your overall lifetime profit. Once this criteria has been met then you will be notified from Betfair themselves that you’re eligible to pay the premium charge, usually via email.

Edited December 12, 2019 by sancho panza

[sancho panza]

Ashworth sums up the dilemmma with this election in that Tories could win places like Bolsover and lose places like Kensington/Southampton itchen(majorieites under 30) all depending on how Brexit voters break either staying at home/voting Tory/turning out for labour.

https://order-order.com/2019/12/10/ashworth-civil-service-machine-will-move-quickly-safeguard-national-security-corbyn/

Given turnout is a real issue,and 25% of seats have majorities of 10% or less,it's going to be interesting to see the results.

There are 30 seats with majorities under 400

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/marginal-seats-2019-uk-general-election-constituencies-target-most-parties-list-824817

 

Edited December 12, 2019 by sancho panza

[jm51]

I was at my polling station just after 10am and there was a small but steady stream of voters.

More oldies than young 'uns.

[spunko]

It's always been said you cannot beat the bookies but the coding they use on their websites is absolutely incredible (as it should be for a £bn company I suppose). They know what bet you're going to place before you've placed it, effectively; it's not even that technically difficult to do it, by using javascript or similar to submit the form before you've actually clicked on the "PLACE BET" button. This is why I only place bets that are at least 10/1, because otherwise they'll just reduce the odds down before you've hit the confirmation button if they detect a potential loss from a load of sudden bids. They effectively know what you're thinking before you do - scary.

You have to give them credit, it's a pretty flawless system, and completely legal. And if you do manage to beat the bookies too many times its byebye, your err ID is a bit err suspicious so we had to ban you.

(To give an example it's essentially like me knowing what comment you're typing on DOSBODS before you've clicked the Submit Reply button)

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, spunko said:

It's always been said you cannot beat the bookies but the coding they use on their websites is absolutely incredible (as it should be for a £bn company I suppose). They know what bet you're going to place before you've placed it, effectively; it's not even that technically difficult to do it, by using javascript or similar to submit the form before you've actually clicked on the "PLACE BET" button. This is why I only place bets that are at least 10/1, because otherwise they'll just reduce the odds down before you've hit the confirmation button if they detect a potential loss from a load of sudden bids. They effectively know what you're thinking before you do - scary.

You have to give them credit, it's a pretty flawless system, and completely legal. And if you do manage to beat the bookies too many times its byebye, your err ID is a bit err suspicious so we had to ban you.

(To give an example it's essentially like me knowing what comment you're typing on DOSBODS before you've clicked the Submit Reply button)

Most people who put a decent sized bet on won't be using the normal interface, they would be using one of the many apps that match bets direct from the database using the API. Like https://www.gruss-software.co.uk/betfair-products/betfair-betting-assistant

[spunko]

6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Most people who put a decent sized bet on won't be using the normal interface, they would be using one of the many apps that match bets direct from the database using the API. Like https://www.gruss-software.co.uk/betfair-products/betfair-betting-assistant

True, but banning that software if it's too successful is an easy option. I'm sure they'd do it if needed.

[Democorruptcy]

No bet.

I don't know what to make of this election. With a 'Let's get Brexit done' headline act the Tories should be in trouble given 48% of the country didn't want Brexit and that was before lots of older people died off and more youngsters became eligible to vote. Plus Johnson's deal shouldn't appease many of the 52% of Brexiteers. However the opposition parties might have done better putting up crash test dummies rather than Corbyn and Swinson. 

Nobody worth voting for or betting on.

 

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, spunko said:

True, but banning that software if it's too successful is an easy option. I'm sure they'd do it if needed.

No. It's nothing to do with "software that's too successful". Net winners and losers can use the same software. The various programs works because Betfair encouraged them introducing the API many years ago. Liquidity would drop off a very steep cliff if they stopped the API.

I'm not talking about the sportsbook, I only used the exchanges.

[spunko]

13 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

No. It's nothing to do with "software that's too successful". Net winners and losers can use the same software. The various programs works because Betfair encouraged them introducing the API many years ago. Liquidity would drop off a very steep cliff if they stopped the API.

I'm not talking about the sportsbook, I only used the exchanges.

I'm not sure, the API appears to have an application process which suggests it's not as open as one might think. I'm not sure how long I'd last placing a load of high value successful bets via their API, they'd just ban me like they would if I was doing it directly on their website.  Isn't that the point in all the people they employ who do risk analysis....?

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, spunko said:

I'm not sure, the API appears to have an application process which suggests it's not as open as one might think. I'm not sure how long I'd last placing a load of high value successful bets via their API, they'd just ban me like they would if I was doing it directly on their website.  Isn't that the point in all the people they employ who do risk analysis....?

Why would they ban someone who is winning on the exchanges?  Premium Charge is 20%, 40% or 60%, they are happy if a regular winner wins, they get a bigger cut of it. They have a Premium Charge Evasion team to track down winners who try to use new or other peoples' accounts.

[jm51]

Why did they bring in a Premium Charge?

When I was last on Betfair, they just took 5% from the winnings. 

There was a discount for higher turnover and some pros became wage slaves finding markets to churn.

 

[feed]

7 minutes ago, jm51 said:

Why did they bring in a Premium Charge?

When I was last on Betfair, they just took 5% from the winnings. 

There was a discount for higher turnover and some pros became wage slaves finding markets to churn.

 

liquidity. Winners reduce liquidity. 

[jm51]

How? There's always winners and losers. Betfair make more if the outsider beats the favourite but that equals itself out.

 

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, jm51 said:

How? There's always winners and losers. Betfair make more if the outsider beats the favourite but that equals itself out.

 

It's jsut a way of raising profits.Their view is that anyone who qualifies for premium is a professional doing it for a living,therefore they have no choice but to pay it.

 

 

Onto other matters,Tory seat count up on a 1.2% rise in their vote share and a near collapse in labour vote.

Behind the first past the post system,not as amazing a result as is being claimed in the media.Some amazing results in places like Doncaster/North East in individual seats.

Cummings will be pleased.Have to say the collapse in Jezzas vote was pretty impressive.He must have upset a lot of people.

 

[sancho panza]

Labour leadership contest to come.

[sancho panza]

6 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Jess Philips and Kier Starmer have thrown their hats into the ring.

Future doesnt look very bright for them.

Wrong-Daily is 2nd favourite.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-labour-leader

Jess is comedy gold.

Was talking to an old friend from the security services last night,who was saying that Starmer didn't have a great Jimmy Savile enquiry.Suspect that'll get trotted out.

Besides,Labour will feel duty bound to elect a woman.

Bailey will go down like a lead balloon as well,

 

Rayner-haven't seen her.Can't get over how a 1.2% increase in vote share got such an uplift in seat count

[sancho panza]

10 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Rayner is from the same factory as Jess, just the newer slightly less mental model.

Think if Jimmy Saville were alive he'd be as elected as those on that list.

I'll keep an eye on her.Labour have some deep problems.

Tories problems are covered by the fact that Labour have deeper problems.

Fair play to the Tories though.

[sancho panza]

14 minutes ago, Tdog said:

Strangest election strategy from Labour, like it was a lucky dip. How can so called educated people be so ignorant to think that ignoring leave voters was a good strategy. 

It seemed a case of getting an election no matter what, as if that in itself was a victory.

Tories now have a huge majority to show they aren't the crony capitalists that i repeatedly claim. Persimmons, Barratts up 12% tells me the markets think the status quo will continue. Theyre up more than the former state owned utility companies Corbyn was going to nationalise.

Arrogance.

The run up in property stocks will be worth shorting at some point.The markets still struggling to shift stock.

Good second point in bold

[Hardhat]

Anyone get a win?

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Anyone get a win?

Did 5 small bets,all lsot.£2 apop

libs over 20 seats,turnout under 60,tory minority govt, and a couple of others I've already forgotten.

I had this one off to be honest.

Looking forward to trumps campaign next year.going to be a biggie if he lives long enough to maker hte finish line.

[spunko]

No, lost £20 odd, not that bothered as it was a fun night.

[sancho panza]

trump still evens despite impeachment

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics-betting-2378961