Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

35 minutes ago, working woman said:

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma

Did not download grammarly then?

I added some HMY today, been on my list for a while. Using a ladder approach these days, takes the emotion out. Lesson learnt, thank you everyone.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

54 minutes ago, working woman said:

Nigel Farage - Love him or loath  him............. 

I have just been on YouTube and wierdly an advert with Nigel Farage appeared.

He was promoting a free website and newsletter https://fortuneandfreedom.com that he is involved in, aimed at the ordinary man/woman in the street.

There are several articles and video interviews. It is an interesting read, he talks about Covid-19, vaccines, the lockdowns, Brexit obviously, inflation coming next,  gold, cryptocurrencies, where the UK will go after Brexit, what will happen to the EU.  He is looking / thinking long term.

Would be interesting to hear what people think.

No idea why that advert came up, I keep getting bl**dy grammarly ones.

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma

 

 

I liked Nigel Farage until he sided with the DEVIL..!

 

Check out the video below ...

 

Besides what can Farage / Nick Hubble...give ya what YOU can't get here right on this OUTSTANDING remarkable Thread ?

 

Look...I'm NOT the sharpest pencil in the box, (buying at the TOP mostly lol  ) ....HOWEVER, logged in HL today to read a secure message, AND see my portfolio is UP now by 32%!

 

[working woman]

56 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Did not download grammarly then?

Obviowsly knot  

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

Nigel Farage - Love him or loath  him............. 

I have just been on YouTube and wierdly an advert with Nigel Farage appeared.

He was promoting a free website and newsletter https://fortuneandfreedom.com that he is involved in, aimed at the ordinary man/woman in the street.

There are several articles and video interviews. It is an interesting read, he talks about Covid-19, vaccines, the lockdowns, Brexit obviously, inflation coming next,  gold, cryptocurrencies, where the UK will go after Brexit, what will happen to the EU.  He is looking / thinking long term.

Would be interesting to hear what people think.

No idea why that advert came up, I keep getting bl**dy grammarly ones.

Please excuse any poor spelllling and gramma

 

I've been on the Fortune & Freedom mailing list since it started.

Load of salesman bullshit and hours of videos without actually being helpful. Subscription required for 'the good stuff' of course.

Nothing new for those here assembled.

[Errol]

5 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

You've just reminded me of this classic from 8 years ago.

I always liked this one as well:

 

[Loki]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes, I've been waiting for this one. 

I got very excited last night when I saw Art had revised his model to where I am on his slides, I think I mentioned I challenged him on some of his assumptions, like extrapolating tight decline to conventional. I wondered would he reference the exchange on the podcast, but actually Erik did. Full credit to him, he didn't hide, admitted he was wrong and revised his model. That's how science works: challenge -> revision, ad nauseum. I emailed Erik this morning about one or two other weaknesses in the analysis to ask him to bring it up with Art next time. He agreed with my point.

Anyway, my view hasn't changed, though the continuation of lockdows is clearly delaying inventory clearing. I thought end Q4, but I'll go along with what Art suggests of another 6 weeks. So mid Feb. The key point is that it's not going to magically stop there. Yes, OPEC will start releasing oil, but when Saudi unilaterally cuts, it tells you they want much higher oil. Saudi exports to the US last week were zero, for the first time in decades. Saudi are no longer afraid of US shale, they know they can't respond to a price spike like Saudi can: Art's work on the leads and lags for this is very good, and reflects the experience of someone who actually drills wells. I had to shut down my last well because of inexperience crew (either that or lose an arm) too, and it's no joke trying to staff these things up after a downturn. Many of them are making a fortune driving trucks right now.

So the fun to watch will be as inventory levels go toward around minus 40m bbl. As you can see on his plot, when that happens prices spike (ignore his green line, he'll be deleting that in a few months time). We could be there by early summer. Art sees 65 WTI, so 70 Brent. I see a case for 80 Brent, I think Erik is more bullish. @DurhamBorn will calm us down I'm sure by laying liquidity over that and telling us it's lower. But it's sure lining up neatly for an oil run up into a BK!

 

 

Curve is clearly backwardated as I thought it would, and it's steepening. I was doing some work on this yesterday, and it seems to be coming to a pivot point around the end of March. This is also when The UK and USA at least will start to be freed up by the vaccines, who said markets were discounting mechanisms?!

This was so good I've read it three times now 

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod i see a big risk at Brent  $58 to $60 for a pull back based on my dollar liquidity work.Interesting to see if that happens or not.However after that its a long run up ahead.Id actually be really pleased if the supply falls see oil through $60 and onward.Oil at $80 could be on and it would likely provide us with a big choice to make.Take then huge profits off the table and wait for the BK,it wont be far behind,or hold through it.Im torn at the moment as my road map is clear on gas being the best performing asset after silver in the cycle ahead and im very concerned to try to trade around the rise and end up out of the stocks.

One things for certain,its a bloody nice place to be worrying and doing work on that.If we get gaps filled on the stocks people who arent invested should use that chance to top up.

 

Taking the profits off the table was why I was asking a while back about somewhere to park them, rather than leaving it as raw cash in a trading account during a BK. I've looked at some so called Money Market Funds on HL but haven't found anything that looks close enough to risk free. A lot are tied to bank depositories but that partly defeats the object in a BK.

[Talking Monkey]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Taking the profits off the table was why I was asking a while back about somewhere to park them, rather than leaving it as raw cash in a trading account during a BK. I've looked at some so called Money Market Funds on HL but haven't found anything that looks close enough to risk free. A lot are tied to bank depositories but that partly defeats the object in a BK.

Could that ibtl be a place to park through the BK, we've discussed that as a possibility

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Taking the profits off the table was why I was asking a while back about somewhere to park them, rather than leaving it as raw cash in a trading account during a BK. I've looked at some so called Money Market Funds on HL but haven't found anything that looks close enough to risk free. A lot are tied to bank depositories but that partly defeats the object in a BK.

Its a huge problem especially for bigger portfolios.The answer is gilts and treasuries,but only for the short term.I think we need to turn the threat to what to do if/when oil hits $65 so we are ready between that and $80.I might just trim a lot by 30% or do nothing.Lets get there first.

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Could that ibtl be a place to park through the BK, we've discussed that as a possibility

I'm not sure. If you knew you could buy bonds at par and then cash them in at par that would be OK but can you? At the moment IBTL has 40 holdings. These are presumably tradeable Treasury bonds. What if you invest as demand for them increases and they are priced a lot over par so IBTL is trading higher. Then when you sell, demand has dropped, the bonds are trading less above par so IBTL trades lower? It could work if you buy (low) and sell (high) earlier enough but I think timing matters.

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a huge problem especially for bigger portfolios.The answer is gilts and treasuries,but only for the short term.I think we need to turn the threat to what to do if/when oil hits $65 so we are ready between that and $80.I might just trim a lot by 30% or do nothing.Lets get there first.

Yes, I'm trying to think ahead and get ready. I suppose just taking profits off the table is one option. Though in a BK not selling the holding as well, misses out on cheaper extra units and their future dividends.

[Hancock]

Why is the consensus on here that there will be a BK? (as in akin to March 2020 or worse)

We'll be freed soon, spring is coming, people have more savings than ever in the western world, and they're desperate to get out and have a good time. Thus the Mcjob losses will be replaced. 

Is it an interest rate hike when inflation hits shortly that will bring down the house of cards?

Quite easy to see where we are now as being as close to rock bottom as possible.

[DurhamBorn]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker im really really pleased your portfolio has done so well,i know you were down quite a bit for a while,but never let that bother you,or adding more positions.Glad you never listened to Credit Suisse when they said sell Royal Mail at £1.50 they were worth 90p  . 

I bought a few pairs of shorts on Ebay,i always buy shorts there on the coldest days of the year and my winter coats in summer on the warmest days,thats when they are cheapest.Got a pair of nice M&S blue shorts with tags on for £4.70 including postage and they had two 10 euro notes in the pocket ,now thats what i call frugal  ,shame it wasnt a couple of silver Brits but you cant have everything.

Youl appreciate this one,it was my local club in the 90s, 

 

[Loki]

47 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Quite easy to see where we are now as being as close to rock bottom as possible.

NASDAQ and the S&P hit all time highs today

I believe a brief deflationary bust is what brings down the house of cards this time. 

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

NASDAQ and the S&P hit all time highs today

I believe a brief deflationary bust is what brings down the house of cards this time. 

I meant at rock bottom more in societal terms.

But on the basis multiple trillions has been dropped from the skies you'd expect assets/stocks to be in the stratosphere..

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I meant at rock bottom more in societal terms.

But on the basis multiple trillions has been dropped from the skies you'd expect assets/stocks to be in the stratosphere..

Just have to wait for it to work it's way through. The $2000 "stimmies" look fairly certain

[Green Devil]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

NASDAQ and the S&P hit all time highs today

I believe a brief deflationary bust is what brings down the house of cards this time. 

My tgt on the s & p is 4300 😁

[Hancock]

Just now, Loki said:

Just have to wait for it to work it's way through. The $2000 "stimmies" look fairly certain

But there in lies my point, most of the money given away is yet to be spent ... and that is about to happen very shortly with the world being set free from these lockdowns.

If people are spending like no tomorrow where does the bust come from.

Inflation then an interest rate hike? or stopping the helicopter money(not likely with the new President)? 

[wherebee]

9 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

My thoughts exactly if money keeps chasing Crypto hopefully i can grab some more physical and miners cheaper, I only hold one miner currently as sold the rest whilst my physical i doubt i will sell for many years

I sold some newcrest at 27 as they've done little for a long time, and I expect them to drop down a bit further at some point.  I bought them originally at 18, but a long time ago, so a pretty poor result compared to following the herd into Tesla or Apple, to be honest with myself.

[Rave]

20 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

You defended him. And got shown up because you're not acquainted with facts you clown.

I can't believe that I actually have to explain this, but here we go.

If I compare the behaviour of Person A with that of Person B in order to suggest that person B has behaved the most badly of the two, that in no way implies that I condone the behaviour of Person A.

If I compare the consequences suffered by those two people as a result of their actions to suggest that one suffered no negative consequences of note, that does not in any way imply that I think that the consequences suffered by the other were onerous.

This is really fucking basic stuff mate.

I think the idea of being a 'Thought Criminal' is that you think subversive thoughts, not that you suffer an apparently criminal inability to understand the most basic logic. You fucking moron.

[Sugarlips]

5 hours ago, Loki said:

This was so good I've read it three times now 

Agreed. Is there any correlation between oil price and BK’s?

i vaguely recall the oil price being seriously depressed during the tech bubble/bust but it being at all time highs when the ‘08 Lehman moment happened.

[Lightscribe]

10 hours ago, Green Devil said:

Buy the Dip  

It’s the handle. 

 

 

 

 

[nirvana]

11 hours ago, working woman said:

Would be interesting to hear what people think

Society is lost to the one percent, deep state and the brainwashed plebs

Trump promised to 'drain the swamp' but he failed and now you have a criminal in charge with his coke head son

You don't believe that? Maybe you failed to see how the media cut Trumps final farewell speech in Washington when he started telling 'uneasy truths' regarding the Bidens

This is why it's so important to learn to fight on your own, be self-sufficient as much as possible and gain inner peace

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s the handle. 

looks like a pair of uneven size TITS to me....you can find any patterns in charts if you look hard enough that's why you should trade pure price action 

Are you really seriously trading the Nifty 50? Is the west not good enough for you? 

[Lightscribe]

17 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

looks like a pair of uneven size TITS to me....you can find any patterns in charts if you look hard enough that's why you should trade pure price action 

Are you really seriously trading the Nifty 50? Is the west not good enough for you? 

Nope just an example of the cup and handle pattern from here. But saying that India has suffered economically this pandemic (to China’s gain - nothing to see there) maybe there’s some reflation bargains in there! 

https://www.elearnmarkets.com/blog/how-to-successfully-trade-cup-and-handle-pattern/

As for use of TA, yes I use it for trading, trends and movements (allowing for outlining economic conditions with silver for example e.g DXY decreasing, incoming inflation, industry use, PM demand etc.)