Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Anyone else watching rates? 10 yr Treasuries looking sprightly and 30yr over 1.9%. With the amount of debt that the US government has to issue, this does not compute. The Fed is going to have a BK on it's hands very soon if they dont start buying and stop making signals about taper. Is this part of the liquidity risk you see, @DurhamBorn?

Decl: the 10yr is keeping pace with inflation, so is the main reason gold is holding back. And I dont want it to :-)

 

I am.

Quote

 

Rising Treasury Yields Flash a Warning Sign

The underlying drivers could create headaches for policy makers and stock investors.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-10/rising-u-s-treasury-yields-flash-a-warning-sign?

 

 

[Barnsey]

The new bitcoin

 

[Transistor Man]

2 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Interesting article about what RR are up to with the government's our money. Didn't manage to dip in at the lows as I was looking elsewhere. Suspect whatever they develop will have many terrestrial applications..!

Rolls-Royce and UK Space Agency launch first ever study into nuclear-powered space exploration

The UK Space Agency and Rolls-Royce are joining forces for a unique study into how nuclear power and technologies could be used as part of space exploration

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rolls-royce-and-uk-space-agency-launch-first-ever-study-into-nuclear-powered-space-exploration

 

Great to see. Definitely not a “first-ever study” though. 

[Transistor Man]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

I gather that Biden has always been a China Hawk, so presumably friction with China will continue? 

 Trump was highly successful in the targeted restrictions against China. An example being restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. They really hurt. I expect them to get lifted. 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

No, that's right. It results in extreme inelasticity, until you spend 20-50bn over ten years to unlock it. That hasn't happened for many years, outside of Russia. The Russians have been countercyclically investing in LNG and will reap big profits.

Basically, producers profit handsomely when governments are idiots and crush utilities into submission so they can't/won't lock in long term supply. Or in other words, buy producers when everyone is telling you they are worthless and the industry is done for.

Prices are spiking in the UK and EU now as well, only 8 months after the biggest demand shock in history. Why? Because the lack of investment goes back to 2014. Expect this for years to come.

Exactly,Centrica managed gas supply well until the government decided to half destroy the company to cut bills by £1 a week while seeing it as ok to put council tax up 5% every year.Il be blad when the pips are squeaking.

On the long bond i suspect the FED would like to keep it below 2.2% .A BK is more of a risk when the 10 year yield falls.When its rising it shows people are selling bonds to invest in the real economy,or inflation hedge,so invest in oil etc.The short end can add or take away from real economy liquidity quickly.

Governments finance from the long bond mostly,companies finance off the short end.

[Errol]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/technology/bitcoin-passwords-wallets-fortunes.html

[Errol]

Very significant:

 

Russia for First Time Holds More Gold Than U.S. Dollars in $583 Billion Reserves

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/russia-s-583-billion-reserves-now-hold-more-gold-than-dollars

[CVG]

27 minutes ago, Errol said:

Very significant:

 

Russia for First Time Holds More Gold Than U.S. Dollars in $583 Billion Reserves

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/russia-s-583-billion-reserves-now-hold-more-gold-than-dollars

I think that you're a buy and hold guy Errol, but do you have a stratgey to alter your weightings between Gold and Silver based on the ratio? It had been falling just under 70 but now back up again. My rough plan was to weight back towards Gold when the ratio fell below 50. I'm now wondering if I should start at 60.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, Ma2 said:

Interesting article about what RR are up to with the government's our money. Didn't manage to dip in at the lows as I was looking elsewhere. Suspect whatever they develop will have many terrestrial applications..!

Rolls-Royce and UK Space Agency launch first ever study into nuclear-powered space exploration

The UK Space Agency and Rolls-Royce are joining forces for a unique study into how nuclear power and technologies could be used as part of space exploration

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/rolls-royce-and-uk-space-agency-launch-first-ever-study-into-nuclear-powered-space-exploration

 

Easy peasy.  They look after the subs.  What's a rocket apart from a sub with some oxygen cans bolted on!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Transistor Man said:

 Trump was highly successful in the targeted restrictions against China. An example being restrictions on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. They really hurt. I expect them to get lifted. 

Hong Kong market been a bit subdued but I've been buying in anticipation of them getting their man into the White House.

[planit]

Not sure if anyone would have read this FT article but it made me chuckle. Written by Andy Haldane, chief economist of the BOE no less, is worried that charities won't get into digital charities early enough and will be left behind!

 Bring charities out of the technological dark ages

https://www.ft.com/content/ea7fd296-f858-4e89-9cd8-d352943ad178

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, CVG said:

I think that you're a buy and hold guy Errol, but do you have a stratgey to alter your weightings between Gold and Silver based on the ratio? It had been falling just under 70 but now back up again. My rough plan was to weight back towards Gold when the ratio fell below 50. I'm now wondering if I should start at 60.

Recent price action had me wondering if we were going to see a narrowing of the ratio.

[Transistor Man]

37 minutes ago, Harley said:

Hong Kong market been a bit subdued but I've been buying in anticipation of them getting their man into the White House.

BT returning to huawei is one to watch for.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

 

Good evening folks, I just did my usual scavenging search on FB Marketplace for free stuff and BLANKED for my area, However came across an OIL TANK ...going for FREE! 

 

This would cost around  £700 quid new!

 

@Harley Where do ya live?  ...OR maybe @Democorruptcy will want it?!

 

https://en-gb.facebook.com/marketplace/item/233229971720888

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Hope your all enjoying your potash profits.I thought we might get 500% over the cycle.Mosaic has turned £10k into £43k already from the lows in less than a year,we got a real bullseye on the sector.

.LNG is getting the news for the price spikes,but gas doesnt really go into deficit until 2023 on my roadmap,the real price action should start sometime around then give or take 6 months.

Energy is going to be a massive theme for the cycle/decade,but not for the reasons most people expect.Remember those whaling boats.When oil was discovered everyone refused to invest in whaling as it was finished,yet the following decade saw the industry make the most profit.Where capital flows makes great profits usually,just not for the generation that invests it,the one after gets the reward.

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Good evening folks, I just did my usual scavenging search on FB Marketplace for free stuff and BLANKED for my area, However came across an OIL TANK ...going for FREE! 

 

This would cost around  £700 quid new!

 

@Harley Where do ya live?  ...OR maybe @Democorruptcy will want it?!

 

https://en-gb.facebook.com/marketplace/item/233229971720888

 

 

 

Does it come full of oil and is it free delivery?

Here's a website that might interest a big spender like yourself

https://www.freecycle.org/

[Noallegiance]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Hope your all enjoying your potash profits.I thought we might get 500% over the cycle.Mosaic has turned £10k into £43k already from the lows in less than a year,we got a real bullseye on the sector.

Intrepid took a while to get going but they've kept red days blue for me in the last few weeks.

Skimmed some non-divi profits today. Kept some as cash and bought divi payers that are still down as well as another few nuggets chucked at HZM.

I'm in danger of starting to know what I'm doing.

Overall portfolio is up 15% in the 9 months since I opened my SIPP. Dragged down by firms like VOD and Babcock but they'll have their runs.

It's fascinating just to be in charge of one's own (currently pathetic) pension.

 

[Sasquatch]

11 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Intrepid took a while to get going but they've kept red days blue for me in the last few weeks.

Skimmed some non-divi profits today. Kept some as cash and bought divi payers that are still down as well as another few nuggets chucked at HZM.

I'm in danger of starting to know what I'm doing.

Overall portfolio is up 15% in the 9 months since I opened my SIPP. Dragged down by firms like VOD and Babcock but they'll have their runs.

It's fascinating just to be in charge of one's own (currently pathetic) pension.

 

Agreed. It is incredibly satisfying to be in charge rather than rely on a general fund manager or IFA providing generic advice.

My SIPP stock fund is up 40% since I set it up in late 2019. Like you I'm in the red with a few but most are blue. I have my fingers crossed that there is a 100 bagger in there somewhere.

[Sasquatch]

To add, I might be paying in a large sum in the next couple of months as an employers pension contribution from my Ltd Co. That will get me thinking....

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

To add, I might be paying in a large sum in the next couple of months as an employers pension contribution from my Ltd Co. That will get me thinking....

Snap, loads of others doing the same, stocks will rocket in the next 2 months then go off a cliff.

[Sasquatch]

Just now, Chewing Grass said:

Snap, loads of others doing the same, stocks will rocket in the next 2 months then go off a cliff.

Ah, but I may let the cash rest for a while before investing. It would be awfully helpful if the BK event could happen say w/c 19th April, perhaps Wednesday after my mid morning cup of tea.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Sasquatch said:

Ah, but I may let the cash rest for a while before investing. It would be awfully helpful if the BK event could happen say w/c 19th April, perhaps Wednesday after my mid morning cup of tea.

I will see what I can do

[Noallegiance]

2 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Ah, but I may let the cash rest for a while before investing. It would be awfully helpful if the BK event could happen say w/c 19th April, perhaps Wednesday after my mid morning cup of tea.

If enough if us ask the universe for this, the law of attraction may deliver.

[Sasquatch]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

I will see what I can do

Ta. 

Nice avatar by the way. I think it's sending me into a trance.

[Hardhat]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Hope your all enjoying your potash profits.

 

 

I only bought K&S, I was down 50% at one point, I'm now back at break even