Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Yadda yadda yadda]

37 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

I have to laugh at the mens clothing, totally understandable. In the absence of having to go to work or be out in public, men couldn't give 2 shits about clothes! I rotated 2 old pairs of rugby shorts for about 7 months last year. That was it, drove the Mrs nuts 

Great time to buy. Not suits though, might never need them again.

[JMD]

36 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have to laugh at the mens clothing, totally understandable. In the absence of having to go to work or be out in public, men couldn't give 2 shits about clothes! I rotated 2 old pairs of rugby shorts for about 7 months last year. That was it, drove the Mrs nuts 

Did you think about 'reversing' them, you could then possibly have quadrupled their wearability!! 

[JMD]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Great time to buy. Not suits though, might never need them again.

'First they came for our ties...!' Sorry, i'm in a weird mood today - stir/lockdown crazy?

[Loki]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is the key phrase

'There were close to 697,000 deaths in 2020 - nearly 85,000 more than would be expected based on the average in the previous five years.'

They're using standard deviations from the mean.If you use the previous five years as your context,then the death rate for 2020 is indeed very high.However,that low death rate is in itself a contributory factor of the spike

Thanks for explaining it so clearly

[geordie_lurch]

This one made me laugh AND pause to reflect we are truly in strange or even in one of those end of a single or multiple fiat currencies time

[nirvana]

Conclusion

The Fed's balance sheet tactics are the key driver of M1, not people moving money into or out of checking accounts, not Biden, not the rich jumping ship, not real estate taxes nor any of the other claims tossed around.

source https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/whats-behind-the-surge-in-m1-money-supply

and i get a few mentions too 

(if you can't be bothered to read it he says OCD is a top geezer and he's really good in bed, particularly when he's sleeping and dreaming )

[CVG]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I have to laugh at the mens clothing, totally understandable. In the absence of having to go to work or be out in public, men couldn't give 2 shits about clothes! I rotated 2 old pairs of rugby shorts for about 7 months last year. That was it, drove the Mrs nuts 

I beg to differ. There's an admitted spendthrift on here who shops for clothes at least twice a year.

[nirvana]

Has anyone suggested watching 10 year US T bond for signs of BK? It's been getting frisky of late 

[DurhamBorn]

5 hours ago, JMD said:

DB, if we did eventually see a monetary collapse (or even if we didn't get something so dramatic)... but if say central banks are subsumed into being 'just another' government department, and debt system is completely reformed, governments do their own cryptos, and/or maybe even crypto/blockchain reinvents all kinds of infrastructure such as ownership/financial market trading - would there be any point to having a banking system, retail or commercial?    Its a very big question i know, don't expect a detailed reply, but just wondered if you had begun developing any ideas about this?

I think monetary collapse is a huge risk at the end of an inflation cycle.How they respond i have no idea.You could argue goverments should increase the money supply 2% a year and just sit back,but they cant help themselves and would increase for one off reasons that become permanent.The key is to watch what happens once CBs are forced to dis-engage as they will be.Then governments will have to destroy everyone,or start to get people off free stuff.

[nirvana]

Just to counter BK thinking for this year

Goldman Sachs says the S&P 500 will rise 14% in 2021. Here’s the road map

 

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Has anyone suggested watching 10 year US T bond for signs of BK? It's been getting frisky of late 

Durhamborn mentioned it recently, said it wasn't as inflationary as long bond (To my knowledge, worth double checking)

1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Just to counter BK thinking for this year

If you follow Dave H it doesn't counter it at all  all part of the deflationary bust as he calls it 

[The_Doc]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There's a reall effort to misrepresent the data.The use of excess deaths without the historical context of all cause mortality over the previous 20 years is very naughty imho,but obviously being done for a reason.

Here is the longer term view

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-how-mortality-rates-in-2020-compare-with-past-decades-and-centuries-12185275

"So actuaries have devised a measure called age-standardised mortality. This is perhaps the gold standard of mortality measurements - so what happens when one examines 2020 in terms of standardised mortality?

Well, according to analysis carried out for Sky News by the Continuous Mortality Investigation of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, the deterioration in mortality during 2020 was almost without parallel."

And the 2020 deaths are despite lockdown and restrictions and masks, social distancing etc.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, The_Doc said:

the 2020 deaths are despite lockdown and restrictions and masks, social distancing etc.

Sounds like we need more lockdowns and restrictions and masks, social distancing etc

[nirvana]

Powell is on the wires and markets getting frisky.....here's a question from one viewer 

 

[feed]

https://www.teletrader.com/powell-we-plan-to-focus-on-maximum-employment/news/details/54334884?ts=1610648631036

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that FED will no longer be going to raise interest rates unless it sees imbalances in the employment sector.

"When you look at maximum employment as an exclusive goal, it cannot be achieved if lots of people are not working especially in the minority communities. We focus on it. We do understand that those issues are important national issues and what we can do is invest in education and training. That has to become a national goal," he stated.

Powell added that "in the near term as we see increases in spending, we could see upward pressures on prices. and we could see measured inflation going up. The real question is how much this will be persistent. Let's say that we have a stronger economy in the second part of the year, it is strongly integrated with the rest of the world."

[feed]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/essar-to-invest-750-million-to-set-up-hydrogen-project-in-uk/articleshow/80250798.cms

New Delhi: Essar Group in partnership with clean energy specialist Progressive Energy will invest 750 million pound to build the UK's biggest low carbon hydrogen production hub at Stanlow refinery in Ellesmere Port, Cheshire. The investment in two plants will be part of the HyNet scheme, a project to supply low carbon hydrogen to industrial sites and homes in north-west England.

This is starting to move quick now.  

[Jesus Wept]

19 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

I think that it will be plain old inflation that will fuck everything up. £2 for a loaf of bread within a decade or so, that sort of level

China will be licking their lips

£2 ....  ? That’s how much I pay for a loaf of bread now  .......  😳

[Loki]

29 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

think I'll have a go at him

You're doing God's work, Saint Prod of Cattle. 

[Don Coglione]

11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

£2 ....  ? That’s how much I pay for a loaf of bread now  .......  😳

Thought you didn't eat bread?!

[dnb24]

34 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Should be illegal, think I'll have a go at him. It's good to see the excess death data being attacked though, as I said before I think this is the real signal in the noise, and if this amateur hour is the best they can come up with, they are running out of ammo.

Love it!! Fully agree- and when you add in the fact that general beds in the UK have dropped by over 50% since 1987, and acute beds by 30+%, (https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications/nhs-hospital-bed-numbers) you exacerbate the fear through the systems inability to cope- when really it should manage- but I suppose that’s a good example of disinflation for you!

[Castlevania]

24 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Thought you didn't eat bread?!

I wouldn’t eat bread if it cost me £2 a loaf

[reformed nice guy]

39 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

£2 ....  ? That’s how much I pay for a loaf of bread now  .......  😳

I dont mean organic hand wanked fancy bread, I just mean a normal loaf made from flour, shite, water and chemicals

[Jesus Wept]

30 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Thought you didn't eat bread?!

Until recently I’ve been making my own - 40p a loaf and way tastier. Checkout the ‘sourdough’ thread. That’s another thing I’ll miss on a keto diet. 😬 

Edited to add: Let’s not derail DB’s  thread taking about bloody bread 😂. See you on the sourdough thread. 

 

[Option5]

11 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I dont mean organic hand wanked fancy bread, I just mean a normal loaf made from flour, shite, water and chemicals

 

[BurntBread]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Also, why the trend increase since 2010 or so, obesity?

An increase in all-cause mortality rate since 2010 (or earlier, if the up-tick is hidden by improving medical treatments) could be obesity, diabetes etc. However, I wonder whether the normalisation is correct? The actual UK population might be rising higher than that used for the denominator, which could give an upward slope.

Admittedly, much of that influx would be younger people, who are unlikely to die, but unrecorded immigrants might include elderly parents, and populations from some parts of the world have relatively high mortality rates even when young.

Sorry, that's a topic for other threads, but these days there seems to be a nasty surprise under almost every stone you turn over.